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Were lockdowns the best approach?

 
Old 12-05-20, 01:11 PM
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alo
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Were lockdowns the best approach?

With the coronavirus, were the lockdowns around the world, the best approach? Would there have been a better way to handle it? What should be done in the future?
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Old 12-05-20, 01:13 PM
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tyrion
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The evidence is pretty clear that lock downs slow the spread.
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Old 12-05-20, 03:47 PM
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safeguards/

Originally Posted by alo View Post
With the coronavirus, were the lockdowns around the world, the best approach? Would there have been a better way to handle it? What should be done in the future?
future is now-SF is on lockdown beginning Sunday,tomorrow.sure to be others following.seems primitive but what other options are there?have to trust the experts on this one,IMO. do you own an affected biz by chance???
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Old 12-05-20, 05:00 PM
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YES
Signed: your cousins from Australia

PS: We're really concerned, you've gotta stay off the gear, you're looking a little crazy at the moment.
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Old 12-05-20, 06:55 PM
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Lockdowns might not have been necessary if people were more cooperative.

But instead of cooperating with a few basic precautions -- masks (where appropriate -- I don't wear a mask while riding, jogging or walking solo, there's no point), handwashing, social distancing, minimizing shopping and choosing other hours to avoid crowding -- too many people bought into lunatic fringe conspiracy theories and became reflexively oppositional like defiant teenagers.

Lockdowns clearly worked in some countries. Particularly islands or those with limited border accessibility.

The half-assed approach of Sweden clearly failed, unless sacrificing the elderly and vulnerable for the sake of commerce was considered a win. It certainly saved Sweden millions of dollars through soft euthanasia via negligence.

Some of my more militantly unfettered capitalist free market acquaintances have stated very clearly that they consider the economy more important than individual lives, particularly the lives of those who are not producing wealth in ways they consider valid. Never mind that entire industries and markets depend on the health care needs of the elderly and disabled, and other markets cater to healthy and active retirees. So, yeah, Sweden's approach and ours in the US was a catastrophic failure because it threatens a huge and lucrative market. You can't sell anything to dead people, other than funerals.

For the future:
  • Listen to medical professionals, not politicians and media outlets with unscientific agendas.
  • Fund research into viruses and vaccines. Yeah, it'll be expensive. But the cumulative economic effect of pandemics over the last century show we'll save money by increasing funding for research and health care.
  • Consider the entire economic impact, beyond "I'm pissed off because my favorite bar went out of business." As I said above, the deaths primarily affected people with more health care needs. That's a significant economic impact that needs to be studied and weighed against the cost of the loss of jobs and wages. With good planning I believe both can be protected.

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Old 12-05-20, 06:56 PM
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Look at the country's response to 911. Now, in terms of deaths, it is a new 911 each day, yet the response ranges from hand-wringing to implicit or explicit denial of reality.

The alotypes claim the country was under a "lockdown." The country was under restrictions that were so mild compared to others, like Australia and New Zeland, it had little effect. The result is the current death-toll.
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Old 12-05-20, 07:25 PM
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I don’t care if the bars close down they sell overpriced poison anyways. When I want to poison myself I ice down the poison and sit on my tailgate under an oak tree. Heck of a lot cheaper and there is no need to put up with stupid drunk people.
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Old 12-05-20, 10:10 PM
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No one was really locked down in the US. There were simply restrictions on public gatherings.

Such restrictions are certainly necessary and effective when properly utilized. Where I live, the greatest restrictions were in place when the danger was very low. The danger has increased steadily as the restrictions have eased and it is clear we will remain on that path. It's hard to how this could possibly be the best approach.
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Old 12-06-20, 01:49 AM
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If the entire world locked down for 4 to 6 weeks at the beginning of this, the virus would be gone for good and life would be back to normal.

What my country did was tell people to stay home unless they didn't want to. We had a period of mild but disruptive restrictions, which did what they were designed to - get our first contact with the virus under control. Once we did that, stopped the most immediate bleeding, we threw the barn doors open. That's when we began to lose control of the situation.

Quarantine for everybody for long enough to let the virus run out of copy machines was never possible. We bought ourselves time instead, but paid dearly in political capital for it, meaning it was hard to swallow the first time and people won't accept it again unless things go really bad.

​​​​​​It was pretty obvious that things would get bad starting a few weeks ago. It's getting cold in enough places that people won't go outside to do things they consider essential. So they're doing then indoors instead, the virus is spreading, and then we have two holidays where people travel to see distant family, spreading the virus far and wide by physically connecting dots that don't come into regular contact. This was as easy to predict than the tides. We should have gone into "lock down" in September to prepare for it. It's growing exponentially, that's more bad when it's starting with really big numbers.
​​​​​​
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Old 12-06-20, 04:09 AM
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Lockdowns seemed all right here.
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Old 12-06-20, 04:11 AM
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Originally Posted by Seattle Forrest View Post
If the entire world locked down for 4 to 6 weeks at the beginning of this, the virus would be gone for good and life would be back to normal.

​​​​​​
I have my doubts about that. Would the common cold be gone for good if the entire world locked down for 4-6 weeks? I'd be thrilled to try!
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Old 12-06-20, 10:39 AM
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Since we are now washing hands and wearing masks I no longer catch any colds Like that 2-3 day cold that isn’t too terrible. But I believe South Dakota has the right approach with their genius leader Kristi Noem if only we follow her advice this pandemic would be gone (sarcasm)..
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Old 12-06-20, 10:56 AM
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Agree with the statement that we've not been under lockdown, but restrictions.

I rode my bike through a bit of rural Oregon yesterday. An air quality advisory was in effect, due to stagnation from the current weather pattern. I don't know, but suspect, that the literally hundreds of piles of burning leaves, brush, fencelines, etc. were a direct response to that perceived government intrusion. Combined with the occasional "OREGON WILL NOT COMPLY" yard sign, it's clear we don't have a properly functioning social system.

Keep in mind Oregon is about the fifth best state, in most COVID measures.

I don't know, given the current social situation in the US, if anything could have worked. Even with hindsight, given that reality, I think we were screwed from day one.
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Old 12-06-20, 02:51 PM
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I'm of the opinion that life itself is an intelligent test. If we respond correctly to life's challenges we stand a good chance of long life. An incorrect response produces the opposite.
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Old 12-06-20, 03:04 PM
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The thing is it takes so few non compliant people to screw it up for everyone. Iím talking about masks, staying home, gatherings etc. The other thing is that the USA is full of people who think non compliance makes them better is some way. They have loud motorcycles, speed excessively, mock mask wearers as losers, go to big parties etc. Then they claim that since the pandemic is not over that the government measures are lies and illegal too. And people believe them.

Sigh. I think we are just a country of losers.
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Old 12-06-20, 05:47 PM
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I think it depends on what one calls a "lockdown". I think initially some retail establishments were curtailed, but most of them popped back. The greatest impact was on the restaurants. And on SCHOOLS.

We've had two local long-time locally owened automotive retail businesses shut down, and there may have been a dip in revenue, but I think they largely closed because of aging owners and employees.

What the USA has really lagged on is TRACKING. I'd imagine somewhere in my travels I've crossed paths with someone with COVID. Around here I'm pretty good at wearing masks when in public. So I haven't gotten the disease. But, we could likely get far better control of the disease using phone GPS contact tracing, tracking credit card transaction locations, etc.

Sacrifice short-term expansion of testing, contact tracing, etc, for long-term disease control (and potentially significantly reduced resource cost).4

One likes to ask whether a person did anything to put themselves at risk. But, I really couldn't tell you what the 84,496 Oregonians that have gotten the disease did to put themselves at risk, or if they did nothing at all. Of course, those living in nursing homes just had bad luck. But the others?
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Old 12-07-20, 09:57 AM
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Originally Posted by Machka View Post
I have my doubts about that. Would the common cold be gone for good if the entire world locked down for 4-6 weeks? I'd be thrilled to try!
The answer is yes and no... rhinovirus mutates too quickly to be fully eliminated.

The COVID virus has also been mutating, fortunately to less virulent strains. The fact is, COVID is a weak virus... easy to catch, but in of itself, rather weak. The protein structure that shields the virus is easily broken down.

BTW, I am not a microbiologist or epidemiologist nor involved in medicine in any way... so take what I say with a "huge grain of salt." I am corrected often.
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Old 12-07-20, 03:52 PM
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Originally Posted by alo View Post
With the coronavirus, were the lockdowns around the world, the best approach? Would there have been a better way to handle it? What should be done in the future?
Not sure about the rest of the world- people from each place will say it did or didnt work based on their biases- ive seen/read more accounts than I care to where that was obvious.

As for the US- lockdowns didnt work here and no I would not say it was the best approach. It was largely half-assed and thats perhaps why they didnt work.
Basically, we just screwed with our economy and jobs. We took all of the downsides of a lockdown and got none of the benefits.
My state never locked down, sheltered in place, or whatever else. Only 3 weeks ago did the governor finally issue a mask mandate and even that was full of exceptions. Covid ran rampant here, as expected, but really the state's numbers for the last 8 months arent exactly a ton better or a ton worse than other states. A lack of lockdown didnt help things, but it didnt seem to make things unbearable either- and unemployment is at 3% now.

The debate over how this should have been handled will be added to textbooks for decades to come.
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Old 12-07-20, 03:56 PM
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Originally Posted by Machka View Post
Lockdowns seemed all right here.
You are on an island with low population, right?
How is the employment rate- both 6 months ago and now? How has tourism been, which is a major industry for you?

My questions are economic based and not health based, I recognize that. Both are vital to consider.
If your island managed to keep employment high and businesses open to ensure the lockdown was 'all right', then more power to you. The US needs to learn a lot, and it should look to you guys for some guidence.
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Old 12-07-20, 04:06 PM
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Originally Posted by Hondo Gravel View Post
I donít care if the bars close down they sell overpriced poison anyways. When I want to poison myself I ice down the poison and sit on my tailgate under an oak tree. Heck of a lot cheaper and there is no need to put up with stupid drunk people.
I'm going to come to Hondo and find you, and drink poison under your oak tree in the oppressive Texas afternoon until it's too hard to walk.

That sounds like a little slice of heaven. Just take a nap until you can walk again.
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Old 12-07-20, 04:32 PM
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This is all just opinions, of course. My opinion is that this would have been a relatively easy-to-solve problem if humans could act like responsible adults. This crisis has proven that an impossibility. Because of that, this isn't really a health problem; it's a behavior problem. As long as people refuse to wear masks, insist on their "right" to go out when sick, on their "right" to assemble closely, while ignoring all of their responsibilities to each other, this is insolvable and it will continue.

None of these things named above would have necessitated an economic shutdown. But meatpackers insisted sick employees work, as I suspect many other businesses did. People refused to do rational things like stay home when sick, wear masks, not get together unnecessarily, etc. There wasn't sufficient support for people who needed to work to live to allow them to stay home because a large part of the US populace perceives anyone who needs help who isn't themselves a loser (exception for self, always).

So basically, as a self-centered greedy population that's unwilling to lift a finger for someone else's benefit, we are all paying the price. We have, as a group, no right to complain. It was going to cost money one way or another, and a short-thinking society declared they'd rather pay later than upfront. That payment is now being collected.

Going to point out that Japan, a country where some of this has always been part of the culture, is sitting at #145 right now in deaths/population. China, a huge country where it all started, but which has a culture of sacrificing self for culture is sitting at 205. USA with its culture of selfishness and greed is #11.

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Old 12-07-20, 04:53 PM
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My same exact thoughts, @mdarnton. We're all a bunch of spoiled, self-centered people. Always "my right to do this, right to do that" crap. This is a time when even some third world countries shine, disciplined and caring people. Here we are the supposedly "superpower" and where are those superpowers to deal with this,huh?
Here's an article that just came out about our county. This one pisses me off because this dumbass health officer has county money on his and probably their minds. All about the money. We're just about the only county who doesn't have a lockdown. So of course, that will draw more people here to deal with our businesses. SMH
https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/coro...order/2416952/
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Old 12-07-20, 05:08 PM
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Originally Posted by Unca_Sam View Post
I'm going to come to Hondo and find you, and drink poison under your oak tree in the oppressive Texas afternoon until it's too hard to walk.

That sounds like a little slice of heaven. Just take a nap until you can walk again.
July and August are best at 100+ with humidity. Not too bad with a cold beer in the shade with a breeze but still hot. Arizona people may argue but big bend area of Texas gets Phoenix heat as well. Yes not Arizona hot but hot is just FRIKIN hot
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Old 12-07-20, 06:28 PM
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Lockdowns with huge populations don't work. Yes, they will slow down the spread, but once you open back up, it's going to surge again -- after all, pandemics start with just a few infected.

We are seeing surges in much of the rest of the world. Right now it's a combination of cooler weather -- more people inside and the holidays. People don't like to social distance.
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Old 12-07-20, 06:38 PM
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BTW, with all these lockdowns, can you blame people for rebelling?

It's bad enough with all the politicians preaching to us about not going home for the holiday, while they're on a trip to Mexico and other places. But then you got this https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-b1767069.html

Lady gets her outdoor patio shutdown and not 50 ft away there's all these tents set up for the movies sets to serve food so they can stay open. How can you be anymore stupid than our politicians? It infuriates me....



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