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How long till the COVID vaccinations make a dent in the disease

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How long till the COVID vaccinations make a dent in the disease

 
Old 12-24-20, 07:38 PM
  #26  
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Originally Posted by CliffordK View Post
Hopefully by the end of this year we'll have > 150 million Americans vaccinated. And, one could look at the longterm efficacy of the vaccine by looking at infection and mortality rates of those that were vaccinated vs those that weren't.

I was going to start a new topic, but there is a new strain of the virus circulating in the UK that is supposed to be 70% more infectious than the COVID circulating elsewhere, and also have a higher mutation rate. Vaccine efficacy is unknown.

This may also be a fallacy of making a very narrow vaccine targeting a single spike protein. Eventually changes to the spike protein will decrease the effectiveness of the vaccine.

It would be curious the longterm comparison of the inactivated whole virus vaccines vs the single spike protein vaccines.
I was listening to a podcast where there was speculation the pandemic would linger on for ten years (!)
As far as the British mutation goes, I will wait to see what the experts say. Lots of speculation right now, but not that much evidence. Yet.
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Old 12-24-20, 08:37 PM
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Concerts that were rescheduled for 2021 are talking about moving again to 2022 or just canceling permanently. Looks like it will take all of 2021 to get everyone vaccinated. Too many unknowns but 2021 looks like another crappy year. Taking it easy on Christmas Eve too many cold ones last night staying warm by a chiminea fire listening to live recordings of Iron Maiden. Imagining I’m at the concert.
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Old 12-24-20, 09:23 PM
  #28  
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Originally Posted by CliffordK View Post
Ok, Pfizer and Moderna are both shipping out the COVID vaccine.

Both are supposed to take 2 doses. But, at least the Russian (adenovirus vector) study indicated moderate efficacy after the first dose, and better after the second dose.

Pfizer is supposed to have around 50 million doses (25 million people) in the somewhat near future. And, Moderna is estimating around 30 million doses (15 million people) by the end of the year.

Although, if enough production is in the pipeline, they can give out all of the doses as they arrive, and hopefully getting more vaccine in 3 to 4 weeks when the second dose is recommended.

So, for the population:

USA has around 330 million people.
But, for > 70, that is about 37 million.
About 30 million also have diabetes (some in the above > 70).
And, somewhere around 20 million health care workers (again with potential overlap with the other groups).
16 million with diagnosed COPD
About 25 million with Asthma (half adults, half children)
Nearly 40 million more between 60 and 70.



So, with the doses we have on the way now, we could probably get everyone over 70 vaccinated. But a big chunk of those vaccinations will be diverted to health care workers, and perhaps a few other groups of people.

We probably need to vaccinate somewhere around 100 million people (200 million doses) before we start making a dent in the hospitalizations and mortality rate.

So far, neither vaccine has been approved for younger school kids (5 to 15). But, another 40 million or so to get the kids 16 to 24, for a chunk of the older HS kids, and college students.

We'll likely need to get somewhere near 170 million people (340 million doses) before we see life getting somewhat back to normal.
Thank you for the update. What is the interval between the 1st doze and the 2nd one? And is it really safe for elderly folks?
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Old 12-24-20, 09:43 PM
  #29  
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Originally Posted by ropetwitch View Post
Thank you for the update. What is the interval between the 1st doze and the 2nd one? And is it really safe for elderly folks?
Three weeks. As far as we know it is safe.
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Old 12-24-20, 09:45 PM
  #30  
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Originally Posted by ropetwitch View Post
Thank you for the update. What is the interval between the 1st doze and the 2nd one? And is it really safe for elderly folks?
I get the impression that the window is big. Also it seems that reaction to the shots is much bigger for that second dose so I an guessing that the word will go out that some at higher risk of adverse reactions should skip it.
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Old 12-24-20, 10:44 PM
  #31  
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Originally Posted by ropetwitch View Post
Thank you for the update. What is the interval between the 1st doze and the 2nd one? And is it really safe for elderly folks?
I think Pfizer was tested at 3 weeks and Moderna had 4 weeks between doses.

According to this article, timing doesn't have to be exact, but there was a significant boost in protection for the second shot (52% to 95%)

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...al/3867521001/

The author suggested a better immune response with a longer gap, but in an active epidemic/pandemic, there are benefits of pushing the immunity up higher as quickly as possible.

Both drugs were tested in a variety of individuals. I believe the Pfizer vaccine is approved for 16 and up, while the Moderna vaccine is approved for 18 and up. Testing protocols may have excluded pregnant individuals.

I don't know how old of individuals they tested, but I didn't note any age related issues, and the vaccine is much safer than getting the disease.

Doses are already being distributed in nursing homes. Although the second dose is supposed to be more problematic due to eliciting an already sensitized immune response.

The data on allergies is mixed. But, anybody that has had bad allergic reactions should be treated under a doctor's care and observation.
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Old 12-25-20, 12:14 AM
  #32  
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I heard someone in the UK saying that they were sticking to 21 days between doses because that is what the trial used, and it was simpler to just follow the trial protocol.


There seems to be some protection 10 days after the first dose, which then increases.
Tufekci and Mina note that infections dropped off steeply after two weeks among the participants in clinical trialswho were inoculated with the first dose of the vaccines. Preliminary data from the Pfizer/BioNTech trial suggested that the vaccine efficacy for the prevention of COVID-19 was 82 percent after the first dose. Efficacy against severe COVID-19 occurring after the first dose was 88.9 percent. In comparison, the two-dose regimen is 95 percent effective against infection.


The Moderna vaccine, according to preliminary clinical trial data, provides substantial protection after the first dose as well. Tufekci and Mina note, "Moderna reported the initial dose to be 92.1 percent efficacious in preventing Covid-19 starting two weeks after the initial shot, when the immune system effects from the vaccine kick in, before the second injection on the 28th day." The Moderna vaccine is 94.5 percent effective after the second dose.

https://reason.com/2020/12/18/why-us...lmost-as-well/
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Old 12-26-20, 09:26 AM
  #33  
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We'd likely be much better off vaccinating a many people as possible with one dose this spring, and one or two doses this fall. Perhaps even a second dose mixed with different spike proteins.

I'd be happier getting twice as many people immunized with an 80% effective vaccine than half with 90% effective, and half getting nothing.
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Old 12-26-20, 02:42 PM
  #34  
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A lot of elderly people will be unable to get the shot because of reactions with other medicines they're taking. A lot still probably refuse the shot, and rightly so, because nobody knows how it will react with the meds they're taking.

Which means they rest of us have to step up to the plate.
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Old 12-26-20, 02:46 PM
  #35  
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Originally Posted by skidder View Post
Have the scientists figured out how long the vaccine is effective, and will we have to get re-vaccinated every year/5-years/decade like some other vaccines (example - yearly H1N1 flu shot)? That's got to be considered when figuring out when all the restrictions will end. I'm thinking the earliest will be in late 2021, better bet will be we've gotta keep those masks handy and our hands washed until mid-2022.

Personally, as soon as its available I'll get vaccinated.
​​​​​​Nobody could possibly know that. The world is flying by the seat of its pants here.

The mystery isn't just our immune systems and the vaccines, how much is this virus going to mutate? It's moving through a lot of people so it has a lot of chances.
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Old 12-26-20, 02:56 PM
  #36  
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A couple of encouraging studies.

https://bgr.com/2020/12/24/coronavir...ction-studies/
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Old 12-26-20, 04:02 PM
  #37  
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If you won't take it for "religious reason" then they shouldn't have to insure you at all
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Old 12-26-20, 04:19 PM
  #38  
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Originally Posted by Seattle Forrest View Post
A lot of elderly people will be unable to get the shot because of reactions with other medicines they're taking. A lot still probably refuse the shot, and rightly so, because nobody knows how it will react with the meds they're taking.

Which means they rest of us have to step up to the plate.
What meds does the vaccine react with? I would think a vaccine is somewhat independent from most medications with respect to function except for perhaps a small group of immunocompromised patients (AIDS/Transplant/Cancer/autoimmune/etc). Chronic use of high dose NSAIDS or Corticosteroids? Still, that may not be an absolute reason not to take the vaccine.

Scientists Eye Potential Culprit Behind Covid-19 Vaccine Allergic Reactions

Researchers think polyethylene glycol, or PEG, could be responsible for allergic reactions to the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine


o
Antifreeze?
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Old 12-28-20, 08:31 AM
  #39  
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Originally Posted by CliffordK View Post
We'd likely be much better off vaccinating a many people as possible with one dose this spring, and one or two doses this fall. Perhaps even a second dose mixed with different spike proteins.

I'd be happier getting twice as many people immunized with an 80% effective vaccine than half with 90% effective, and half getting nothing.
So why havent they taken your advice to dose up twice as many with half as much?
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Old 12-28-20, 11:35 AM
  #40  
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Originally Posted by mstateglfr View Post
So why havent they taken your advice to dose up twice as many with half as much?
For much of this pandemic, "doing things right" has taken precedence over minimizing cases and deaths. The CDC tests (that failed) vs simply using the lesser Korean tests that worked and that they were happy to share the formula for. The FDA insisting on their usual rigorous standards rather than giving approval to new tests by companies ready to go into production.

I see this as more of the same. 95% from two doses is better than 80% from one. Let's say 1 in 200 will get infected without the vaccine. That 1 in 100 of those infected will die. 100 million doses divided by 2 (two doses per person) divided by 20 divided by 100 times (1-95%) = 1250 deaths from those inoculated with two doses. But if we go only one dose per person, that number goes to 100 million / 20 / 100 X (1-80%) = 10,000 deaths among those inoculated. This is bad! 8 times as many died!

Never mind that with the double doses, 50 million people got left out and among them 25,000 died.

What we have been lacking from day one is someone in charge who has the skills to do basic math on a napkin. And the guts to make calls. Now, it isn't too late to get this right. Nobody has gotten a second shot yet. Front liners should get second shots because their exposures are so high. Others who deal with large numbers of people likewise as they are potential superspreaders. But the rest of us? Let's get our first shots and not sweat the second until all have gotten the first. My calcs were for 100 million people. We have 320 million so up those numbers by more than three. Divvying up those shots could save up to 50,000 lives.
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Old 12-28-20, 11:02 PM
  #41  
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Originally Posted by 79pmooney View Post
For much of this pandemic, "doing things right" has taken precedence over minimizing cases and deaths. The CDC tests (that failed) vs simply using the lesser Korean tests that worked and that they were happy to share the formula for. The FDA insisting on their usual rigorous standards rather than giving approval to new tests by companies ready to go into production.

I see this as more of the same. 95% from two doses is better than 80% from one. Let's say 1 in 200 will get infected without the vaccine. That 1 in 100 of those infected will die. 100 million doses divided by 2 (two doses per person) divided by 20 divided by 100 times (1-95%) = 1250 deaths from those inoculated with two doses. But if we go only one dose per person, that number goes to 100 million / 20 / 100 X (1-80%) = 10,000 deaths among those inoculated. This is bad! 8 times as many died!

Never mind that with the double doses, 50 million people got left out and among them 25,000 died.

What we have been lacking from day one is someone in charge who has the skills to do basic math on a napkin. And the guts to make calls. Now, it isn't too late to get this right. Nobody has gotten a second shot yet. Front liners should get second shots because their exposures are so high. Others who deal with large numbers of people likewise as they are potential superspreaders. But the rest of us? Let's get our first shots and not sweat the second until all have gotten the first. My calcs were for 100 million people. We have 320 million so up those numbers by more than three. Divvying up those shots could save up to 50,000 lives.
Well, shut er down. Its a few days early, but 2020 is over- a rando from the PNW cracked the code and figured out how to save the most lives.
And its all thanks to his ability to do math on a napkin, only the math isn't correct and it needs to be multiplied by 3.

All seriousness, your point is a good one. Its also one that has been discussed extensively in print as I've read the back and forth on it since at least August. Perhaps the issue is we don't know how long only 2 shot protects(we dont yet know how long 2 shots protects either). Or perhaps the issue is a lack of trust on people showing up at an unspecified time for the follow up shot, which then leaves more susceptible in the long run.

...or maybe its like you suggest- gutless morons that can't do basic math made the decision without ever consulting anyone, so I guess we should be happy they didn't arbitrarily decide on 3 shots per person!
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Old 12-29-20, 08:37 PM
  #42  
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My wife had shot one tonight, because she is a health worker. We will wait to see what happens. I am confident that science will prevail in this problem. JMHO, MH
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Old 01-03-21, 11:20 PM
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https://www.politico.com/amp/news/20...ed-half-453979
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