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How long till the COVID vaccinations make a dent in the disease

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How long till the COVID vaccinations make a dent in the disease

 
Old 12-20-20, 09:08 PM
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CliffordK
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How long till the COVID vaccinations make a dent in the disease

Ok, Pfizer and Moderna are both shipping out the COVID vaccine.

Both are supposed to take 2 doses. But, at least the Russian (adenovirus vector) study indicated moderate efficacy after the first dose, and better after the second dose.

Pfizer is supposed to have around 50 million doses (25 million people) in the somewhat near future. And, Moderna is estimating around 30 million doses (15 million people) by the end of the year.

Although, if enough production is in the pipeline, they can give out all of the doses as they arrive, and hopefully getting more vaccine in 3 to 4 weeks when the second dose is recommended.

So, for the population:

USA has around 330 million people.
But, for > 70, that is about 37 million.
About 30 million also have diabetes (some in the above > 70).
And, somewhere around 20 million health care workers (again with potential overlap with the other groups).
16 million with diagnosed COPD
About 25 million with Asthma (half adults, half children)
Nearly 40 million more between 60 and 70.



So, with the doses we have on the way now, we could probably get everyone over 70 vaccinated. But a big chunk of those vaccinations will be diverted to health care workers, and perhaps a few other groups of people.

We probably need to vaccinate somewhere around 100 million people (200 million doses) before we start making a dent in the hospitalizations and mortality rate.

So far, neither vaccine has been approved for younger school kids (5 to 15). But, another 40 million or so to get the kids 16 to 24, for a chunk of the older HS kids, and college students.

We'll likely need to get somewhere near 170 million people (340 million doses) before we see life getting somewhat back to normal.
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Old 12-20-20, 09:25 PM
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Small pox: about 200 years
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Old 12-20-20, 10:44 PM
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Waiting my turn to get the shot. I hope it produces a great buzz. I guess we will see how it all works out.
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Old 12-20-20, 11:36 PM
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This story tells a bit about the confusion between the feds, the states and vaccine manufacturers. Probably to be expected in an undertaking of this magnitude.
Gov. Ron DeSantis said Tuesday that Florida could receive less than the 452,000 doses of the coronavirus vaccine that the state was expecting because of a “production issue” on the part of a vaccine manufacturer. DeSantis said that two shipments of the vaccine slated to be sent to Florida in the coming weeks are “on hold right now.”

On Thursday, Pfizer, the pharmaceutical giant behind the vaccine, put out a statement which contradicted that characterization.

“Pfizer is not having any production issues with our COVID-19 vaccine, and no shipments containing the vaccine are on hold or delayed,” the statement read. “This week, we successfully shipped all 2.9 million doses that we were asked to ship by the U.S. Government to the locations specified by them. We have millions more doses sitting in our warehouse but, as of now, we have not received any shipment instructions for additional doses.”
https://www.tampabay.com/news/florid...&ICID=ref_fark
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Old 12-21-20, 03:27 AM
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Originally Posted by skookum View Post
This story tells a bit about the confusion between the feds, the states and vaccine manufacturers. Probably to be expected in an undertaking of this magnitude.

https://www.tampabay.com/news/florid...&ICID=ref_fark
I have read about similar complaints about vaccine distribution around the country. Whew, nearly a half a million doses for Florida? We were only supposed to get about 30K in Oregon, and it isn't clear how much of that even arrived.

It is hardly any bigger of a task than vaccinating half the population every year for the Flu. Mostly distributed in the fall from about September/October/November.

The biggest difference is the cold storage, and perhaps thawing.

We have public health departments around the country. One could make a hierarchical structure for communication about needs, and getting the vaccine in and distributed. Hopefully that is already in place.

Is somebody only ordering/shipping half the allotment so that half can be shipped in 3 weeks for the second dose? Except, hopefully there will be more available in 3 weeks.
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Old 12-21-20, 04:09 AM
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Judging from the estimates of Americans who are expected to refuse to participate in the vaccines -- as high as 50% according to a Houston doctor who said more than half of the nurses on his staff planned to refuse the vaccine for political reasons -- we're looking at another year or longer with the pandemic, hopefully at a reduced level.

The only way to make a dent in these numbskulls is for employers and public schools to require employees and students to be vaccinated. Particularly employees who deal with customers and the public.

Even a high number of fellow veterans have said they'll refuse the vaccines. Some even claim they've never been vaccinated. I can't tell whether they're lying or really that ignorant. With few exceptions we all received up to a dozen vaccines in boot camp, more if we were destined for overseas duty.

It'll take a massive education program on every media outlet to help dispel some disinformation, although I doubt it will make much difference. I've read comments on social media accusing VP Mike Pence of being a RINO or traitor for taking the vaccine, or faking the shot.

And with the recently reported mutation in the UK, it still remains to be determined how effective the vaccines will be against variations of the coronavirus.

But I have zero hope for about half of America. Too many Americans have basically indicated that they consider deaths of other Americans an acceptable price to pay for being able to get back to the party.
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Old 12-21-20, 06:35 AM
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Originally Posted by canklecat View Post
Judging from the estimates of Americans who are expected to refuse to participate in the vaccines -- as high as 50% according to a Houston doctor who said more than half of the nurses on his staff planned to refuse the vaccine for political reasons -- we're looking at another year or longer with the pandemic, hopefully at a reduced level.

The only way to make a dent in these numbskulls is for employers and public schools to require employees and students to be vaccinated. Particularly employees who deal with customers and the public.

Even a high number of fellow veterans have said they'll refuse the vaccines. Some even claim they've never been vaccinated. I can't tell whether they're lying or really that ignorant. With few exceptions we all received up to a dozen vaccines in boot camp, more if we were destined for overseas duty.

It'll take a massive education program on every media outlet to help dispel some disinformation, although I doubt it will make much difference. I've read comments on social media accusing VP Mike Pence of being a RINO or traitor for taking the vaccine, or faking the shot.

And with the recently reported mutation in the UK, it still remains to be determined how effective the vaccines will be against variations of the coronavirus.

But I have zero hope for about half of America. Too many Americans have basically indicated that they consider deaths of other Americans an acceptable price to pay for being able to get back to the party.
Yes.
What I don't get is these hospital workers.
Here, at the last hospital I worked at, if you don't have a documented flu shot on file you don't work. Don't know how common that is nationwide. And I would think that the stroke of an administrator's pen could update that to include Covid vaccine.
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Old 12-21-20, 07:49 AM
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Originally Posted by canklecat View Post
Judging from the estimates of Americans who are expected to refuse to participate in the vaccines -- as high as 50% according to a Houston doctor who said more than half of the nurses on his staff planned to refuse the vaccine for political reasons -- we're looking at another year or longer with the pandemic, hopefully at a reduced level.

The only way to make a dent in these numbskulls is for employers and public schools to require employees and students to be vaccinated. Particularly employees who deal with customers and the public.

Even a high number of fellow veterans have said they'll refuse the vaccines. Some even claim they've never been vaccinated. I can't tell whether they're lying or really that ignorant. With few exceptions we all received up to a dozen vaccines in boot camp, more if we were destined for overseas duty.

It'll take a massive education program on every media outlet to help dispel some disinformation, although I doubt it will make much difference. I've read comments on social media accusing VP Mike Pence of being a RINO or traitor for taking the vaccine, or faking the shot.

And with the recently reported mutation in the UK, it still remains to be determined how effective the vaccines will be against variations of the coronavirus.

But I have zero hope for about half of America. Too many Americans have basically indicated that they consider deaths of other Americans an acceptable price to pay for being able to get back to the party.
I think these estimates of people refusing to get the vaccine shots are overblown and you already see reports of the rich and powerful jumping in front of the line, bumping off health care professionals.

I'm more interested in the vaccine program in Russia. https://apnews.com/article/russia-co...df230ad130efd1

While excitement and enthusiasm greeted the Western-developed coronavirus vaccine when it was rolled out, the Russian-made version has received a mixed response, with reports of empty Moscow clinics that offered the shot to health care workers and teachers — the first members of the public designated to receive it.

Kremlin officials and state-controlled media touted the Sputnik V vaccine as a major achievement after it was approved Aug. 11. But among Russians, hope that the shot would reverse the course of the COVID-19 crisis has become mixed with wariness and skepticism, reflecting concerns about how it was rushed out while still in its late-stage testing to ensure its effectiveness and safety.
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Old 12-21-20, 09:26 AM
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Originally Posted by work4bike View Post
I think these estimates of people refusing to get the vaccine shots are overblown and you already see reports of the rich and powerful jumping in front of the line, bumping off health care professionals.

I'm more interested in the vaccine program in Russia. https://apnews.com/article/russia-co...df230ad130efd1
The whole vaccine refusal/hesitancy situation is complex and confusing. When the H1N1 vaccine was distributed it was in scarce supply at first and there were big line ups to get it, the scarcity seemed to stimulate demand. The hospitals here always put on a big push to get their staff vaccinated against flu, and they have big charts displaying the compliance of various departments.
Some of the non public facing departments have compliance of less than 40%. There seems to be an active anti-vax mindset in some of them. The union protects them, they can't be fired for refusing vaccination. Front line workers are re assigned if they wont get vaccinated, but they can't be dismissed.

Has the Russian vaccine gone through any kind of regulatory approval similar to the FDA approval in the US? I read an interview with one of the developers of the Russian vaccine last summer, it sounds like a legitimate scientific enterprise and he was dismayed by the politicization of the process.
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Old 12-21-20, 10:21 AM
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The elderly people, and those with serious underlying conditions that I know will get the vaccine as soon as it is available to them.

As far as politics, one of the big points is that with rather profound restrictions, we've only had < 20 million documented cases of COVID in the USA, and 320,000 dead. It is hard to say what we would have without the restrictions.

Once the high risk patients are either given the vaccine, or there is enough vaccine that they can accept or refuse it, then many of the restrictions can be lifted.

We may not need to get everyone that wants it for some time, but I'd like to see everyone > 50 that wants the vaccine get it. Along with anybody with extreme obesity, high blood pressure, CHF, angina, diabetes, history of heart problems, and perhaps even women anticipating getting pregnant.

Once the vulnerable get offered the vaccine, I could care less if we open the flood gates for the rest of society. Let those refusing the vaccine take their chances.
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Old 12-21-20, 10:45 AM
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I’m glad my mama made sure I got all my shots she offed dad with a machete she is one bad mother.
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Old 12-21-20, 11:08 AM
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Has anyone seen the rollout schedule for the two vaccines? If we say that 25% of Americans are vulnerable - old, health issues, obesity, tobacco, etc, that's roughly 25% X 320 million = 80 million people. 160 million doses. When will that number be produced?

Now, probably 25% of those will refuse the vaccine. Better for the rest of us but there will also be corruption siphoning of (say) the same percentage to people with wealth, power or "importance" that really don't qualify. That has already started happening. I read yesterday of a hospital where administration working from home got the shots, not the front liners.

The other given is that where will be glitches, even huge ones. Read about WW2 and some of the manufacturing screwups. Too much is needed too fast. Here, the unprecedented need for deep refrigeration. WW2 - the B17 bombers were delivered to England with regular firearm oil with traces of water in it in the machine guns. The mechanics over there had to take each one apart and clean it all out. That oil froze at 40,000 feet. One new plane missed that cleaning and went into combat with just two of its 11 machine guns working. ("A Higher Call" by Adam Makos and Larry Alexander.)

So, I say the dates that we have the vulnerable protected and "herd immunity" will be a month after 160 million doses are made and a month after 480 million doses are made. (Or maybe it will be decided that one dose each will be enough, so when half those numbers are made.) The one month lag - distribution, administering the shots, then two weeks to take affect. They had to cancel Christmas because, while Santa has already gotten his shot, Christmas happens too soon. He isn't immunized yet.
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Old 12-21-20, 11:35 AM
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It is my understanding and opinion formed from reading stuff and real world observation of just what these big pharma campuses are capable of that they are fully capable of manufacturing and distributing all the vaccine required, but they simply have not received the orders from any federal or state entities that will be actually be paying for it. They are not non profit charities you know.
Edit: Millions of doses are speeding around the US in trucks as we speak by the way. I bet if I had a few tens of millions laying around I could order some myself just with a physicians order.

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Old 12-21-20, 11:47 AM
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I will pay for my dosage. I’m hearing 25 bucks but that’s just hearsay. And if you are struggling I will pay for your dosage! I can help out a few people and no I am not rich! But I can afford to help out a few other people.
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Old 12-21-20, 12:01 PM
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Originally Posted by CliffordK View Post
The elderly people, and those with serious underlying conditions that I know will get the vaccine as soon as it is available to them.

As far as politics, one of the big points is that with rather profound restrictions, we've only had < 20 million documented cases of COVID in the USA, and 320,000 dead. It is hard to say what we would have without the restrictions.

Once the high risk patients are either given the vaccine, or there is enough vaccine that they can accept or refuse it, then many of the restrictions can be lifted.

We may not need to get everyone that wants it for some time, but I'd like to see everyone > 50 that wants the vaccine get it. Along with anybody with extreme obesity, high blood pressure, CHF, angina, diabetes, history of heart problems, and perhaps even women anticipating getting pregnant.

Once the vulnerable get offered the vaccine, I could care less if we open the flood gates for the rest of society. Let those refusing the vaccine take their chances.
Sounds good to me
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Old 12-21-20, 12:01 PM
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Originally Posted by FBOATSB View Post
It is my understanding and opinion formed from reading stuff and real world observation of just what these big pharma campuses are capable of that they are fully capable of manufacturing and distributing all the vaccine required, but they simply have not received the orders from any federal or state entities that will be actually be paying for it. They are not non profit charities you know.
Edit: Millions of doses are speeding around the US in trucks as we speak by the way. I bet if I had a few tens of millions laying around I could order some myself just with a physicians order.
Hadn't fully consumed my coffee when I posted. You're right. Pfizer will sell to those who step up and pay and around the world there are lots wiling to do that, unlike our current US. My figures above come out to roughly 1/2 billion doses for the herd. 1/2 billion X $25 = 12.5 billion. In 2020 COVID-19 terms - cheap. We're writing out trillion dollar checks every few months.
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Old 12-21-20, 12:03 PM
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Originally Posted by Hondo Gravel View Post
I will pay for my dosage. I’m hearing 25 bucks but that’s just hearsay. And if you are struggling I will pay for your dosage! I can help out a few people and no I am not rich! But I can afford to help out a few other people.
You'll have wait until the professional sports industry, the Hollywood industry, elite mega rich have been to the trough
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Old 12-21-20, 12:17 PM
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Originally Posted by FBOATSB View Post
You'll have wait until the professional sports industry, the Hollywood industry, elite mega rich have been to the trough
Yup, unfortunately. It will get ugly before it is all over. I’m thinking 2022. I think I will go ride my bike and tune out the world.
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Old 12-21-20, 12:40 PM
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I think by summer you be able to walk into a Walgreens with no appointment and get the shot just like a flu shot but I could be wrong. All the big national pharmacy chains have deep pockets as well.
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Old 12-21-20, 03:16 PM
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Originally Posted by canklecat View Post
Judging from the estimates of Americans who are expected to refuse to participate in the vaccines -- as high as 50% according to a Houston doctor who said more than half of the nurses on his staff planned to refuse the vaccine for political reasons -- we're looking at another year or longer with the pandemic, hopefully at a reduced level.
What exactly are 'political reasons'. I struggle to come up with one reason that someone could think of based on political positioning, so I really cant think of multiple reasons. And that single reason I have come up with is quite weak.
I can see people not wanting the shot for a number of conspiratorial reasons, but cant come up with any political reasons.

And this Doc needs to look into a new hiring process because there is something seriously flawed with the current process when half the nursing staff refuses a medical vaccination to end a pandemic.
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Old 12-21-20, 03:48 PM
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It would seem to me that a doctor adhering to the Hippocratic Oath would have a hard time justifying employing an unvaccinated person who will be in close contact with his patients.
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Old 12-21-20, 04:08 PM
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How many people that got the first one will go back for the 2nd shot ?
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Old 12-21-20, 09:25 PM
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Originally Posted by cloud View Post
How many people that got the first one will go back for the 2nd shot ?
Early reports are that the reaction to the first dose tends to be mild, and the reaction to the second dose tends to be more severe. So... they won't be not getting it due to a personal bad experience, but we'll all be waiting for reports and social media from people who got that second dose.

Unfortunately we don't have a lot of long-term controlled data for people who only get the first dose and not the second dose. Perhaps we'll have a naturally selecting study group if we can follow them.

For the early doses, most will be going to medical staff and elderly care, and I'd anticipate generally high compliance. But the compliance could fall as we get into community individuals.
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Old 12-24-20, 01:33 PM
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Have the scientists figured out how long the vaccine is effective, and will we have to get re-vaccinated every year/5-years/decade like some other vaccines (example - yearly H1N1 flu shot)? That's got to be considered when figuring out when all the restrictions will end. I'm thinking the earliest will be in late 2021, better bet will be we've gotta keep those masks handy and our hands washed until mid-2022.

Personally, as soon as its available I'll get vaccinated.
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Old 12-24-20, 01:47 PM
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Originally Posted by skidder View Post
Have the scientists figured out how long the vaccine is effective, and will we have to get re-vaccinated every year/5-years/decade like some other vaccines (example - yearly H1N1 flu shot)? That's got to be considered when figuring out when all the restrictions will end. I'm thinking the earliest will be in late 2021, better bet will be we've gotta keep those masks handy and our hands washed until mid-2022.

Personally, as soon as its available I'll get vaccinated.
Hopefully by the end of this year we'll have > 150 million Americans vaccinated. And, one could look at the longterm efficacy of the vaccine by looking at infection and mortality rates of those that were vaccinated vs those that weren't.

I was going to start a new topic, but there is a new strain of the virus circulating in the UK that is supposed to be 70% more infectious than the COVID circulating elsewhere, and also have a higher mutation rate. Vaccine efficacy is unknown.

This may also be a fallacy of making a very narrow vaccine targeting a single spike protein. Eventually changes to the spike protein will decrease the effectiveness of the vaccine.

It would be curious the longterm comparison of the inactivated whole virus vaccines vs the single spike protein vaccines.
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