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Have we passed the fall/winter peak?

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Have we passed the fall/winter peak?

 
Old 12-30-20, 09:38 PM
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CliffordK
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Have we passed the fall/winter peak?

I noticed a while ago that it looks like much of the country hit a peak in new cases shortly after Thanksgiving, and seems to be declining since then.

Like on weekends, new covid infections were down on Christmas. But, by mid-week, numbers still seem to be down a bit.

We've had one form of lockdown or another for a while, as well as reduced activities around the country. Perhaps that is making a dent in the disease.

Also school and university holidays?

Of course, we may see a Christmas spike starting now, and the next week or so.
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Old 12-30-20, 11:04 PM
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The new variant is here. This isn't anywhere near being over.
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Old 12-30-20, 11:23 PM
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I’m staying in my cave.
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Old 12-31-20, 03:19 AM
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My prediction is a massive spike in early January when all the testing comes in from the Christmas foolishness in the US.

It's already starting.
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Old 12-31-20, 06:36 AM
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In my area, hospitalizations for COVID-19 are steadily climbing and spiked sharply about two weeks after Thanksgiving. So we can expect another spike the first week of January. And another in the middle of January from New Year.

With the official acknowledgement of variants, it's going to get more difficult. I suspect variants have been around all year, but not much was known about the effects.

My pet theory is that insular groups -- families, some coworkers, neighbors in enclosed apartment buildings -- have already been exposed to variants and developed antibodies. But it doesn't offer much, or any, immunity against other variants. The super-spreader events may not only be producing a massive dose of the Super Cooties, but many small variants that overwhelm the immune system.

The only good thing about this pandemic is that we'll finally get more thorough research. There was some research and theories along these lines around 2005 after the first SARS pandemic, but that effort fizzled out pretty quickly.
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Old 12-31-20, 08:28 AM
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Originally Posted by Machka View Post
My prediction is a massive spike in early January when all the testing comes in from the Christmas foolishness in the US.

It's already starting.
First off, way to go out on a limb with that prediction. Vegas is really scared they may need to pay out big if it happens.*** Next you will predict that water is wet.

Secondly, here is a quick list of some Euro countries with cases per million that are within 25K of the US(both above and below the US).
Montenegro, Luxembourg, Czech, Slovenia, Georgia, Belgium, Armenia, Lituania, Switzerland, Croatia, Netherlands, Sweden, Spain, Austria, Portugal, France, Serbia, UK
The US has had issues in managing the spread of covid, I agree, but 'foolishness' is hardly isolated to here.

Also, can anyone actually believe that the most populated country on the planet has only 60 cases per million? Along with this, India only has 7400 cases per million? Come on. Either cases arent being reported or reporting isnt accurate. The US has done 80-90 million more tests than either of those countries, yet they have 4-5x more people.
Put another way, the US has tested 6-7x more people per million than either China or India. For every 1 person in those countries, the US has tested 6 or 7. The number of positive people is going to obviously be higher when more are tested.



I cant believe I felt obligated to sort of defend the US here because its been a clear ****show that should be a case study in how not to handle a pandemic, but thats just how much bias I saw in your comment.
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Old 12-31-20, 02:54 PM
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The crap being spewed on Ground Zero and Coast to Coast AM and people drinking the Koolaid Those use to be entertaining shows about crazy paranormal stuff and the like but now it’s an infomercial right wing paranoia show. Very disappointing. I’m paying attention to the science on this and making my own decision on what to do. Sorry Bubba and Bubbette not buying your it’s a hoax philosophy.
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Old 12-31-20, 07:20 PM
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No.
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Old 01-01-21, 01:14 AM
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Definitely NO. We are now seeing the Thanksgiving surge which in one more week will be followed by the Xmas surge which in another two weeks will be followed by the New Years surge. With all these people freely associating in public you ainít seen nothing yet.


Check back in May or June.
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ďHe who fights with monsters might take care lest he thereby become a monster. And if you gaze for long into an abyss, the abyss gazes also into you.Ē- Fredrick Nietzsche



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Old 01-01-21, 01:14 PM
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Originally Posted by Hondo Gravel View Post
The crap being spewed on Ground Zero and Coast to Coast AM and people drinking the Koolaid Those use to be entertaining shows about crazy paranormal stuff and the like but now itís an infomercial right wing paranoia show. Very disappointing. Iím paying attention to the science on this and making my own decision on what to do. Sorry Bubba and Bubbette not buying your itís a hoax philosophy.
It's too bad your "neighbors" seem to be drinking the Koolaid... My sister, in Spring Texas, is fully convinced of the Trump show... and parrots the RW propaganda "headlines" whenever we talk. And Texans already tend to have this superiority complex... so it all just piles on.
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Old 01-01-21, 01:19 PM
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It's always darkest just before the dawn..
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Old 01-01-21, 01:37 PM
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Originally Posted by skookum View Post
It's always darkest just before the dawn..
I don't think we are anywhere near dawn. The new strain hasn't had time yet to become widespread. In about 6 weeks, we will tire as a nation of hunkering down after the holiday surges and we will return to the business of spreading the new strain. It is going to be summer before the vaccine is widespread enough to make any difference with the general public. Come warmer weather (April?) the mass protests will resume, now both anti COVID and anti Biden. Superspreader events in direct protests to the new administration are going to happen.

I hope you all will come back 6 months from now and tell me I was full of s***. Till then, I am just going to try to live smart.
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Old 01-01-21, 06:39 PM
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Covid-19: New variant 'raises R number by up to 0.7'

BBC

The significance of this is it will now be a lot harder to get to R < 1.0 even with vaccines in play.

It also seems like it is geographically widespread in the US (CA, CO, etc); it just hadn't been tested for (and may not yet be as prevalent).

What is most disturbing about the BBC article is that it all but says the "lockdown" in Britain seems to have helped select for this mutation.
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Old 01-02-21, 01:00 PM
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Originally Posted by canklecat View Post
In my area, hospitalizations for COVID-19 are steadily climbing and spiked sharply about two weeks after Thanksgiving. So we can expect another spike the first week of January. And another in the middle of January from New Year.
Here is some Oregon data. Sorry I don't have a fancy chart.
Originally Posted by Nov 25
COVID-19 hospitalizations continue to rise: The number of hospitalized COVID-19 patients across Oregon increased to 489, 15 more than yesterday. There are 113 COVID-19 patients in Intensive Care Unit (ICU) beds, no change from yesterday.
Originally Posted by Dec 3
The number of hospitalized COVID-19 patients across Oregon rose to 559, 10 more than yesterday. There are 109 COVID-19 patients in intensive care unit (ICU) beds. That is four more than yesterday.
Originally Posted by Dec 10
COVID-19 hospitalizations: The number of hospitalized COVID-19 patients across Oregon is 576, which is four fewer than yesterday. There are 127 COVID-19 patients in Intensive Care Unit (ICU) beds, which is five fewer than yesterday. 
Originally Posted by Dec 17
COVID-19 hospitalizations: The number of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 across Oregon is 551, which is three fewer than yesterday. There are 113 COVID-19 patients in intensive care unit (ICU) beds
Originally Posted by Dec 24
COVID-19 hospitalizations: The number of hospitalized COVID-19 patients across Oregon is 495, 32 fewer than yesterday.

There are 101 COVID-19 patients in Intensive Care Unit (ICU) beds, eight fewer than yesterday.
Originally Posted by Jan 1
The number of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 across Oregon is 466, 22 fewer than yesterday. There are 109 COVID-19 patients in intensive care unit (ICU) beds, three more than yesterday.

It looks like the ICU numbers are holding relatively stable, but the hospitalizations peaked in early December and are somewhat down.

We are now a week after Christmas and haven't seen any big spikes yet. In fact the numbers are down slightly.

However, it is possible that Christmas is more frequently celebrated as a family holiday while New Years is a more social holiday... we'll see.
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Old 01-03-21, 03:51 AM
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Old 01-03-21, 04:31 AM
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Down in my area.

Berks County's weekly total of COVID cases down for third straight time




https://www.readingeagle.com/coronav...640feda02.html
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Old 01-03-21, 12:04 PM
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Being on a hike yesterday and seeing a lot of maskless people, I mean a lot is a clear sign nothing is going down. It was a tougher trail (muddy and steep) but sadly quite crowded. It was a place I had never hiked so I didn't know what to expect but I did my best to move off the trail when I saw the maskless coming and of course had my mask on.

As just about every medical expert and a lot of other people including Republican governor of Maryland, Larry Hogan, "wear a mask". It ain't hard there are plenty of different masks out there with different pictures and slogans and fits that you can easily find one or many that are comfortable and easy to wear.
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Old 01-03-21, 12:23 PM
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Originally Posted by Machka View Post
I've said a few times that the mortality rate is a lagging indicator, 2 or 3 weeks behind the test data.

Still your graph shows a lack of growth over the last few weeks.

Unfortunately we rang in the new year with a new record of new cases, nearly 300,000 in a single day. We didn't hit 300,000 TOTAL documented cases until early April.

Of course, the holidays both toss the testing around as well as tossing the exposures around. We didn't seem to get much of a bump in cases from Christmas (so far). But, I fear people will be more social on New Years, and we could see a significant increase in numbers.

And, of course, schools resuming next week.
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Old 01-04-21, 12:05 AM
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Originally Posted by veganbikes View Post
Being on a hike yesterday and seeing a lot of maskless people, I mean a lot is a clear sign nothing is going down. It was a tougher trail (muddy and steep) but sadly quite crowded. It was a place I had never hiked so I didn't know what to expect but I did my best to move off the trail when I saw the maskless coming and of course had my mask on.

As just about every medical expert and a lot of other people including Republican governor of Maryland, Larry Hogan, "wear a mask". It ain't hard there are plenty of different masks out there with different pictures and slogans and fits that you can easily find one or many that are comfortable and easy to wear.
The hiking trails around here are twice as crowded as they've ever been. Hiking is a low cost escape for people who spend too much time at home, it's all a lot of laid off people can afford to do to entertain themselves and their families.

For what it's worth, outdoor transmission isn't very common and you only share space with other people on a trail very briefly. Everyone should still wear masks, but you probably don't have much to worry about from it.
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Old 01-04-21, 10:48 AM
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Originally Posted by Seattle Forrest View Post
The hiking trails around here are twice as crowded as they've ever been. Hiking is a low cost escape for people who spend too much time at home, it's all a lot of laid off people can afford to do to entertain themselves and their families.

For what it's worth, outdoor transmission isn't very common and you only share space with other people on a trail very briefly. Everyone should still wear masks, but you probably don't have much to worry about from it.
Most assuredly they are busy...I just didn't expect that trail to be so busy in the morning but we did go later than usual. I have trails near my house and typically not until late morn early afternoon do they get crowded but right after a holiday, I guess it makes a bit more sense.

Normally yes you would share space briefly but being crowded, narrow, muddy and mostly uphill or downhill it lead to a lot of back ups. Still though the masks are important even if short bursts. It is just frustrating seeing so many people in 2021 say "ehh, still don't need a mask".
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Old 01-06-21, 10:24 AM
  #21  
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Arizona is now #1 in the world for infection rate. So no this peak is not over.




The hiking trails in town are fairly busy, but being open desert it is easy to see where people are and easy to get well off trail to pass.
However most of my hiking is done in places that get only a few visitors a year. It would be a shock to see anyone else out there.
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