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Get it now or Coronavirus may mean wait a year

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Cyclocross and Gravelbiking (Recreational) This has to be the most physically intense sport ever invented. It's high speed bicycle racing on a short off road course or riding the off pavement rides on gravel like : "Unbound Gravel". We also have a dedicated Racing forum for the Cyclocross Hard Core Racers.

Get it now or Coronavirus may mean wait a year

Old 02-21-20, 12:35 PM
  #26  
unterhausen
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It's not going to matter soon, because we'll doing our gravel rides in our basement during quarantine.
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Old 02-21-20, 04:05 PM
  #27  
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Originally Posted by unterhausen View Post
It's not going to matter soon, because we'll doing our gravel rides in our basement during quarantine.
Ha, this relates to one thing(of many) I havent done yet on Zwift is try a gravel ride. I need to read up on them and try one out, if only to confirm my confusion as to why it exists. Skeptically curious.
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Old 02-21-20, 05:02 PM
  #28  
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I only vaguely remember they have mountain bike rides to accommodate trainers with steering

If they simulated Central Pa gravel, it would be climb, downhill, climb, downhill, etc
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Old 02-21-20, 08:41 PM
  #29  
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This is absolutely correct. I know of two shops that are saying some of their brands have warned them that shortages this summer are already guaranteed due to lost production in the last two months. It likely will get worse too.

We are all worried about the poor folks that are affected by this both economically as well as health-wise too of course, that goes without saying.

The worst production impact will be if you were planning to buy parts and build up a frame because when/if production restarts the component manufacturers will be filling the big brand back orders with cranks & derailleurs first. It may already be too late if you were thinking of building up a GRX group on a new frame for example.
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Old 02-21-20, 09:49 PM
  #30  
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The current situation illustrates why economists have difficulty predicting recessions: a couple years ago, it was difficult to imagine that, in 2020, we'd be in the middle of a trade war (since most rational policymakers recognize the folly of such things) and that there would be a potential pandemic disrupting global supply chains...And yet, these are two large macroeconomic disruptions right now.

Perhaps all of this will tilt consumer preferences slightly toward domestically-produced goods, since they will become relatively more affordable as a consequence. But those manufacturers (a small number of custom frame builders working with MUSA steel, and a few high-end component manufacturers like Chris King) are mainly catering to a very small group of well-heeled consumers and can't possibly satisfy more than a tiny segment of the market. If we have a significant disruption of supply chains, combined with tariffs, combined with a rapidly-diminishing boost from the 2017 tax cut package (which didn't really boost consumer spending directly, since most households saw little or no benefit), then we might see the economy slowing considerably in 2020.

Hey, at least unemployment means more time to ride.
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Old 02-22-20, 07:30 AM
  #31  
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I recently bought a frame+fork to build up over 3 months or so. I had all the parts picked out and was noticing that availibility on several items was drying up fast, with restock dates two months down the road (tentatively). As a result, I purchased everything asap from smaller suppliers who still had one or two items in stock.

Relative to this forum, easton 30/46 rings are difficult to find at this point in time, and Ec90 172.5 cranks are scarce, among other items
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Old 02-24-20, 09:41 PM
  #32  
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Heck, I'm still worried about Y2K!
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Old 02-25-20, 08:31 PM
  #33  
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Yeah, at my local LBS, they said that their stock for most things is good, but some things that they'd like to have for late spring/early summer are hard to get or have no restock dates. They say that even if the crisis disappears tomorrow, the supply chain is going to be bumpy for a while in the summer. Longer if the crisis grows, as it seems it might.

I don't know if this applies, and I digress pretty far here, but my understanding is that much of the mortality is from development of pneumonia. Some years ago, my daughter got a bad cough that turned into pneumonia. Soon after that, my wife got the bad cough and then pneumonia. Taking my wife to the clinic, the PA said that the development of pneumonia is usually a secondary effect from lack of aeration of the lungs - i.e., it hurts to breath deeply, so the deep lung tissue is not aerated and infection incubates there. Very soon, I had a bad cough, and what did I do? I went for hellacious bike rides, coughing up a storm and panting like a dog. I did not develop pneumonia. (my wife and daughter recovered, but to this day - 8 years later - both have lingering chest irritation)

It's an anecdote. and also, probably what I did was not advisable from a public health standpoint, though I wasn't riding near other people. But if we all start coming down with the flu, getting on the basement trainer and aerating those lungs might just be a good idea.
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Old 02-26-20, 05:09 AM
  #34  
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Originally Posted by MinnMan View Post
It's an anecdote. and also, probably what I did was not advisable from a public health standpoint, though I wasn't riding near other people. But if we all start coming down with the flu, getting on the basement trainer and aerating those lungs might just be a good idea.
Proactively getting a pneumonia vaccination might be a a good idea too. I'm going to ask my Dr for one at my next annual physical in early March.
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Old 02-26-20, 05:25 AM
  #35  
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Originally Posted by srode1 View Post
Proactively getting a pneumonia vaccination might be a a good idea too. I'm going to ask my Dr for one at my next annual physical in early March.
Strep Pneumonia has very little to do with the coronavirus. The vaccine is rarely given for those < 65, but not a bad idea for > 65.

Of course there is always the risk of secondary infections when you get viral pneumonia, so not entirely worthless either.
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Old 02-26-20, 05:39 AM
  #36  
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Originally Posted by chas58 View Post
Its a good point. Large portions of that country shut down a month ago, and are not scheduled to to be back to normal for at least another month. It could be good if you need something not from China that china consumes, but bad if you are dependent on sourcing from China. We have seen this with Tsunamis, Trade issues, Union Strikes - but typically these are short lived. The virus issue may be a couple of months, or a couple of years. No one knows at this point...
The rate of new infections in China outside of Wuhan/Hubei seems to be low at this point. But, that may in large part be to shutting down businesses and commerce too.

I am also expecting somewhat of a reprieve as we get into late spring and summer.

Not a whole bicycle, but I do occasionally purchase items direct from China on E-Bay. I have two orders pending. Neither tremendously critical, but one has been sitting with "Tracking Number Provided" since January 23rd.

Don't expect rapid delivery from any China direct purchases.

This may also mean it is a good idea to stock up on Chinese produced items in US stock. South Korea is also becoming a Coronavirus hotspot, and it may eventually impact trade from that country. Japan so far seems to only have a moderate level of infection, but has some risk factors. Japan produced Shimano?

Europe is also at risk.
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Old 02-26-20, 08:25 AM
  #37  
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There is no real reason to think that summer will bring relief, unless you mean that we will get past the peak of infections by then
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Old 02-26-20, 09:35 AM
  #38  
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After the past couple trading days, I'm not personally worried about product availability -- I'm not in the market for a bunch of expensive bike stuff after my investments lost about $100k in two days.

If I had extra money laying around right now, I'd be shoveling it into mutual funds rather than spending it on bikes.
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Old 02-26-20, 10:47 AM
  #39  
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Originally Posted by unterhausen View Post
There is no real reason to think that summer will bring relief, unless you mean that we will get past the peak of infections by then
If one looks at the SARS timeline:
November/December 2002, SARS discovered.
March 2003, starts spreading in several countries including China, Vietnam, Singapore.
April/May 2003, USA & Canada started becoming free of new infections.
June/July 2003, SARS outbreak "contained" and travel restrictions start to be lifted.
There have also been notes about longevity of coronaviruses (in general, not the 2019 one) on surfaces being much longer during winter temperatures than summer temperatures.

The number of new cases per day has been confounded by testing procedures and availability, as well as the discovery of new hot spots. The numbers are also heavily weighted towards Wuhan/Hubei. But, in general the number of new cases seem to be levelling off over time.

Several regions that had reported low initial numbers of cases are now reporting 100% recovered with no new cases.

So, yes, there are many reasons to expect a natural decline over the summer, both through natural ebbing of new infections, as well as due to a strong public response, especially in China.

The longterm impact of the virus may be dependent on whether it takes hold in southern Australia, Southern Africa, and South America. All of which are currently reporting none to minimal cases. If it gets a foothold in the south, then the disease could pinball around the world for decades.

Anyway, this is still early, and there are many more cases of the new coronavirus than SARS, but there are reasons to be optimistic of at least reduction of spreading by this summer.
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Old 02-26-20, 12:31 PM
  #40  
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Nobody really knows how this will truly end. Given how distributed Bike Forums members are, my best guess will be that at least, in a year's time, we will know somebody here who will personally know someone who will have died because of this virus. That will be the best-case scenario.

Might that be two or three degrees of separation? A 2% fatality rate won't exterminate the human species but won't provide much solace should you become one of the unlucky ones.

Meanwhile here are two useful links:
U.S. Center for Disease Control: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
World Health Organization: https://www.who.int/emergencies/dise...ronavirus-2019

Pick whichever one you may find more trustworthy. I've no interest in descending into any political argument over government whether it may be national or international. However, this thread might be better suited in a different subforum.

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Old 02-27-20, 07:24 AM
  #41  
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