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Moore's laws for lights?

Old 02-26-15, 10:21 AM
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dougmc
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Moore's laws for lights?

First we had Moore's laws for CPUs, where number of transistors increased exponentially, then it was hypothesized that it might also apply to razor blades ... but is it beginning to apply to bike lights?

Gentlemen, I present the TrustFire TR-D013 7-LED 3-Mode 3000lm Cool White Bike Light - Black + Silver (6 x 18650), because nothing exceeds like excess!

Ironically, with seven LEDs, it could be the first (Ultra|Trust|Whatever)Fire light that is capable of actually producing its claimed number of lumens, though with its relatively small battery pack (compared to the number of lights) if it can, it can't do it for long.

I'm also disappointed that it only has three modes. With seven LEDs (and not the little ones we've seen many of in the past), they should include some modes that have only one light on at a time, moving back and forth like KITT from Knight Rider or other patterns.
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Old 02-26-15, 10:50 AM
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I'll believe claimed lumens when I see it tested. Never heard of TrustFire, but I'll presume they're lying until someone with a light meter tests it.

And even if true...they'll drain that battery inside of an hour.
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Old 02-26-15, 10:56 AM
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I question the run time.
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Old 02-26-15, 10:59 AM
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3000 lumens tends to mean around 30 watts, and six 3000 mAh 18650 cells could produce 30 watts for about 2.25 hours. To get four hours out of it, they'd have to reduce the lumens somewhat or be using significantly more efficient LEDs than normal.

The *Fire knockoff are known for crazy lumen ratings, but given that each LED only needs to put out 429 lumens to reach 3000 total ... it could actually he possible in this case.

That said, to expand on what 10 Wheels said ... for these lights, you should question everything.
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Old 02-26-15, 11:11 AM
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Trustfire is pretty well known. I bought one cheap light with two emitters, and my experience is that they seem inefficient. It doesn't put out that much more light than the single emitter headlight that I have, but it kills a battery faster.

3000 lumen on this is actually pretty believeable. The two emitter one I bought claims 5000 lumens which is clearly ridiculous. It puts out maybe 1000, at best, probably closer to 800.
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Old 02-26-15, 01:01 PM
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Bike Lights, not the Investment of an Intel and Apple Behind the research and Billions of Dollars in Profits as the Pay off.

Though The Germans and Dutch do seem to keep trying to Make more light with the 6v,3w of the typical Hub dynamo.


the item in the OP I see the Emitter in the back not much more Beam shaping than a flashlight. just a bunch of them in a row..

it is going gizmo on the cheap .

Last edited by fietsbob; 02-26-15 at 01:05 PM.
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Old 02-26-15, 01:05 PM
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Omigawd!
Could they make it any uglier?
I would be embarrassed to be seen with that monstrosity.
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Old 02-26-15, 01:15 PM
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This light that I tested in 2013(also from DX) was already claiming 3000 lumens.
Don't know if it actually made that; but I do know that it was bright. Too bad it
broke after a few weeks of use in sub freezing temps:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=huyC...IoDLA&index=12
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Old 02-26-15, 05:12 PM
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Originally Posted by fietsbob View Post
Bike Lights, not the Investment of an Intel and Apple Behind the research and Billions of Dollars in Profits as the Pay off. ...
Bike lights are not why high output LEDs are being developed. The end goal is economical low environmental impact replacements for general purpose incandescent and fluorescent lighting.
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Old 02-26-15, 06:25 PM
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What happened to the 2000lm per LED marketing guys?
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Old 02-26-15, 06:48 PM
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This light/USB charger is the worst example of lumen inflation I've ever seen -- they claim 2300 lumens, but the reality is perhaps 10 to 15 lumens.

That said, given that it's often on sale for $5, it's not a bad little "charge up your cell phone battery that happens to work as a little flashlight".
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Old 02-27-15, 01:54 PM
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For a minute, I thought you said Murphy's Law!
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Old 02-27-15, 02:08 PM
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I think the lumen wars are pretty much over. Started to taper off around 1500 real lumens. At 2500 lumens it's pretty much done - plenty of light even if your night vision isn't so good. You can get 3000 lumens in a much smaller package that what the OP posted.

Now we're going to get feature creep. Controls, size, battery efficiency, beam shaping, remote control, mounts, size, etc...

J.
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Old 02-27-15, 05:30 PM
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Originally Posted by JohnJ80 View Post
I think the lumen wars are pretty much over. Started to taper off around 1500 real lumens. At 2500 lumens it's pretty much done - plenty of light even if your night vision isn't so good. You can get 3000 lumens in a much smaller package that what the OP posted.

Now we're going to get feature creep. Controls, size, battery efficiency, beam shaping, remote control, mounts, size, etc...

J.
Or just outright lying about light output.
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Old 02-27-15, 05:50 PM
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Originally Posted by 10 Wheels View Post
I question the run time.
Let's see… 1A current drain, they're using 18650 cells which give between 2.2Ah and 3.4Ah, arranged as three parallel banks of two so 3×3.4Ah at best giving us 7.2V at 10.2Ah, or at worst, 6.6Ah.

At least on paper, they should be capable of the advertised run-time, possibly double that. A lot is going to depend on environmental factors.

Of course now all that is missing, is to have about 50 different flash patterns all controlled by one button that cycles through each and every mode. (So when you stop, you spend a good 10 minutes just pressing the button repeatedly to turn it off only to start cursing when you miss the "off" mode.)
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Old 02-27-15, 06:55 PM
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Originally Posted by Marcus_Ti View Post
Or just outright lying about light output.
Some of that going on, but the major players that are reputable companies are now being very careful to be accurate. Go over to the Light Shootout on mtbr.com and see. Used to be they all quoted theoretical now it's pretty much actual. That word hasn't spread to most of the Chinese suppliers yet, however.

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Old 03-04-15, 02:07 PM
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The latest single led is the Cree MT-G that is capable of nearly 3000 lumens.
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Old 03-04-15, 07:37 PM
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Originally Posted by Redhatter View Post
Let's see… 1A current drain, they're using 18650 cells which give between 2.2Ah and 3.4Ah, arranged as three parallel banks of two so 3×3.4Ah at best giving us 7.2V at 10.2Ah, or at worst, 6.6Ah.
Let's look at this another way ...

One amp at 8.4 volts is 8.4 watts. 3000 lumens/8.4 watts = 357 lumens/watt, which is significantly higher than the theoretical limit for a white LED, and significantly more efficient than any light of any sort in the real world.

Either 8.4 volts, 1 amp or 3000 lumens is a lie ... they can't all be true simultaneously.
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Old 03-04-15, 07:59 PM
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Originally Posted by dougmc View Post
Let's look at this another way ...

One amp at 8.4 volts is 8.4 watts. 3000 lumens/8.4 watts = 357 lumens/watt, which is significantly higher than the theoretical limit for a white LED, and significantly more efficient than any light of any sort in the real world.

Either 8.4 volts, 1 amp or 3000 lumens is a lie ... they can't all be true simultaneously.
The 8.4V sounds right for two lithium cells in series. Anyone want to plug an ammeter in series to see what the current drain really is?

I don't doubt the 3000 lumens sounds fishy. Speaking of fish, you could probably cook one on the heatsink.
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Old 03-04-15, 08:16 PM
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Originally Posted by Redhatter View Post
Let's see… 1A current drain, they're using 18650 cells which give between 2.2Ah and 3.4Ah, arranged as three parallel banks of two so 3×3.4Ah at best giving us 7.2V at 10.2Ah, or at worst, 6.6Ah.

At least on paper, they should be capable of the advertised run-time, possibly double that. A lot is going to depend on environmental factors.

Of course now all that is missing, is to have about 50 different flash patterns all controlled by one button that cycles through each and every mode. (So when you stop, you spend a good 10 minutes just pressing the button repeatedly to turn it off only to start cursing when you miss the "off" mode.)
Mine (Niterider) is suppose to be press and hold. But of course that function is not always easy to get to because if you hesitate too long you'll just cycle to the next mode. Why do manufactures have to make things so complicated? Is a simple on/off switch something that bizarre?
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Old 03-04-15, 08:26 PM
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Originally Posted by Redhatter View Post
The 8.4V sounds right for two lithium cells in series. Anyone want to plug an ammeter in series to see what the current drain really is?
8.4 volts is certainly right for a fully charged 2s battery.

As for plugging in an ammeter ... that would require that somebody actually buy this monstrosity. But 1 amp on high is probably too low, unless the lumens is really more like 1000 rather than 3000.

As for 3000 lumens, that's only 430 lumens/emitter and is doable, so for the first time in one of these knockoffs, it might be accurate.

But given that modern LEDs tend to not do much better than 100 lumens/watt, that means it wouldn't be drawing 8.4 watts, but 30 watts, and so the run time at that power level could be around two hours, but not much more. And yeah, it would put out a lot of heat, though it would probably be OK if you were actually riding.

Last edited by dougmc; 03-04-15 at 08:29 PM.
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Old 03-04-15, 09:03 PM
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Originally Posted by KraneXL View Post
Mine (Niterider) is suppose to be press and hold. But of course that function is not always easy to get to because if you hesitate too long you'll just cycle to the next mode. Why do manufactures have to make things so complicated? Is a simple on/off switch something that bizarre?
Ohh yes, we've got to pack as many features you won't use as possible.

I had a tail light that had something like 10 modes… this was before me going the DIY route. Turning the bloody thing off was an effort in frustration as invariably whilst trying to cycle through the "other" modes quickly, you'd hit the button one too many times and miss the "off" setting, so you'd have to cycle back through the modes again.

Usually it took about 3 attempts to turn it off. One morning I lost it when it detached from the rear basket. Good riddence.

My current lighting set-up has one switch and two modes: on and off.

Originally Posted by dougmc View Post
8.4 volts is certainly right for a fully charged 2s battery.

As for plugging in an ammeter ... that would require that somebody actually buy this monstrosity. But 1 amp on high is probably too low, unless the lumens is really more like 1000 rather than 3000.

As for 3000 lumens, that's only 430 lumens/emitter and is doable, so for the first time in one of these knockoffs, it might be accurate.

But given that modern LEDs tend to not do much better than 100 lumens/watt, that means it wouldn't be drawing 8.4 watts, but 30 watts, and so the run time at that power level could be around two hours, but not much more. And yeah, it would put out a lot of heat, though it would probably be OK if you were actually riding.
Having had a radio transceiver with a 25W output (and the heatsink to match) I have a fair idea how hot that'd get. I guess they're aiming for the touring market and just need to make it a little flatter on top so you can sit a frypan on it properly.
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Old 03-04-15, 10:35 PM
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Originally Posted by Redhatter View Post
Having had a radio transceiver with a 25W output (and the heatsink to match) I have a fair idea how hot that'd get. I guess they're aiming for the touring market and just need to make it a little flatter on top so you can sit a frypan on it properly.
The whole thing is one big heat sink, and it's likely used with a 15+ mph or so breeze blowing on it (i.e. you're riding.) It probably wouldn't get excessively hot unless you stopped for a few minutes.

Certainly, the much smaller ones (with just one or two emitters) that draw about 10 watts but are much smaller will get too hot if you're stopped, but they're just warm if you're riding.
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Old 03-04-15, 11:05 PM
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I am a double edged safety razor user. My razors have but one blade, and it is far superior to my archived quad bladed unit. That being said, for city / road use, my Cygolite 360 will probably stay in use until the battery no longer takes a charge, then I might upgrade, to more lumens slightly, not that I really need it, though.
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Old 03-05-15, 07:21 AM
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As a resident computer nerd...Moore's law doesn't apply here. The law states the number of transistors in an integrated circuit doubles every two years. (An LED is a single transistor.) There's greater chance for geometric improvement (as opposed to the exponential improvement in Moore's law) is on the energy side of the circuit. Better batteries and more energy efficient LED's are a promising path. New anodes, like Lithium Air or Lithium Sulfur, and more efficient LED's are coming. The warmth you feel when you touch your light housing is wasted energy, producing heat instead of lumens.
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