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And So It Begins

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And So It Begins

Old 03-15-20, 08:22 AM
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What seemed like an over-reaction last week seems obvious and justified now. Extrapolate a little into the future and in 1-3 weeks we end up where Italy and Spain are now- total lock down. So if we can see that coming, why not get it over with and do it now? The preventative effects will be greater if it's done earlier.
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Old 03-15-20, 08:46 AM
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Originally Posted by Tusk View Post
What is keeping you from going?

I am still heading up to Brevard the first week in April to ride around in the hills.
Well it was going to be her, son in law and my four grandkids. The oldest is in elementary school and his has been canceled as well. I guess I could go by myself but that would be a bummer, that cabin is huge. I'd rather sleep in the woods alone.
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Old 03-15-20, 12:41 PM
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Originally Posted by Tusk View Post
What is keeping you from going?

I am still heading up to Brevard the first week in April to ride around in the hills.
My family won't be able to go, and my only job (I retired at age 42, life is good) is babysitting my grandbabies when my daughter is at school and my son in law at work. So if her spring break is canceled I would have to be here anyway.
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Old 03-15-20, 05:10 PM
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Well, hereabouts they just advised those over 65 to be in isolation. Holy crap. That means not going out at all, for any reason. Given that demographic (striking too close for me), I thought of this little gem from the past.

I always did love gallows humor.

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Old 03-15-20, 05:35 PM
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Originally Posted by Lazyass View Post
Well it was going to be her, son in law and my four grandkids. The oldest is in elementary school and his has been canceled as well. I guess I could go by myself but that would be a bummer, that cabin is huge. I'd rather sleep in the woods alone.
Unfortunate!! I’m lucky that my daughter lives in Boone so I have a nice space to visit anytime. I really like the area.
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Old 03-16-20, 10:40 PM
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Seattle International Randonneurs has suspended its rides. Oregon Randonneurs canceled the next ride. AFAIK the Willamette Randonneurs in Eugene have not canceled their next two weekends. I hope to ride their Five Rivers 200k in a couple weeks, but honestly I expect it will be canceled. I hear Indiana Randonneurs' parent club has suspended all rides, so their brevets are canceled. Things are happening fast.

I'm signed up for a 1200 in Michigan this August. So far that's on; we'll see.

Hearing that all recreational riding in Italy and Spain is banned certainly puts things in perspective.
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Old 03-17-20, 07:56 AM
  #32  
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Originally Posted by downtube42 View Post
Seattle International Randonneurs has suspended its rides. Oregon Randonneurs canceled the next ride. AFAIK the Willamette Randonneurs in Eugene have not canceled their next two weekends. I hope to ride their Five Rivers 200k in a couple weeks, but honestly I expect it will be canceled. I hear Indiana Randonneurs' parent club has suspended all rides, so their brevets are canceled. Things are happening fast.

I'm signed up for a 1200 in Michigan this August. So far that's on; we'll see.

Hearing that all recreational riding in Italy and Spain is banned certainly puts things in perspective.
Yes, Central Indiana Bicycling Association last night cancelled upcoming rides. 'Currently, we feel it is in the best interest of our community and our members to suspend all club rides at this time.'
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Old 03-17-20, 11:10 AM
  #33  
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I was supposed to ride the Mid South but decided at the last minute to not go. So many other events were getting cancelled. They went ahead with the event though, which makes me wonder how happy the community is with them at this point. A state of emergency for Stillwater was declared the day after the event. My social media feed has been filled with a lot of posts about how epic the ride was but no one is addressing the fact they went ahead with it and what a bad decision that may have been. They have stated that attendance was down quite a bit. As much as I wanted to go, it's still, in reality, just an expensive bike ride. It makes me wonder if there will be trouble next year when they try to get permits for it. I guess it would depend on how hard hit the community is. The event brings in a lot of money to a smaller town.
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Old 03-17-20, 11:37 AM
  #34  
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Originally Posted by Biker395 View Post
Well, hereabouts they just advised those over 65 to be in isolation. Holy crap. That means not going out at all, for any reason.
I think I understand the point of trying to encourage the elderly to isolate as much as possible, while also trying to provide support services to limit the need for us old people to go out. First, of course, old people are at most risk and it's desirable to limit the death toll among them. Second, infected old people are much more likely to need hospital services and there is a very real danger of the need for hospitalizations to exceed the capacity. In NY, Cuomo is saying that this may be inevitable and the only solution is to rapidly expand supply. Targeting a particular at risk population also may be able to significantly reduce demand.

Maybe this was obvious to everybody but me. My initial reaction was to think that old people were being unfairly targeted, but lately it seems that it might just be good mitigation strategy. We don't want to become like Italy with the practical equivalent of death panels and elderly people living with dead relatives because they can't get anybody to remove the bodies.
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Old 03-17-20, 01:58 PM
  #35  
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Originally Posted by desconhecido View Post
We don't want to become like Italy with the practical equivalent of death panels and elderly people living with dead relatives because they can't get anybody to remove the bodies.
I live in Italy and I can assure the situation described by you is totally false, I kindly ask you to double check your source before writing such things, and publish a correction to your post.
Andrea
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Old 03-17-20, 03:01 PM
  #36  
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Originally Posted by Andybasi View Post
I live in Italy and I can assure the situation described by you is totally false, I kindly ask you to double check your source before writing such things, and publish a correction to your post.
Andrea
Here is a mainstream American news source for each remark that I made about Italy's current healthcare situation with respect to covid-19. The first citation is to the Washington Post, the second citation is to Reuters. These are not news sources that traffic in describing "totally false" situations. The tragic situation in Italy, which is reported to have more than 31,500 cases with more than 2,500 deaths (second only to China), is widely reported in the U.S. media and, as far as I know, is being reported accurately.

Luca Franzese quarantined with sister's corpse

When his sister died after contracting the novel coronavirus, Luca Franzese thought that things couldn’t get much worse.

Then, for more than 36 hours, the Italian actor and mixed martial arts trainer was trapped at home with Teresa Franzese’s decaying body, unable to find a funeral home that would bury her. [...]
[a]ttempts to slow the spread of the disease have led to unintended consequences, including several instances where funeral homes reportedly refused to collect the bodies of those infected with the virus.
In Italy, triage and lies for virus patients

We have to take into account whether older patients have families who can take care of them once they leave the ICU, because they will need help,” says Marco Resta, deputy head of Policlinico San Donato’s Intensive Care Unit.

Even if there is no chance, he says, you have to “look a patient in the face and say, ‘All is well.’ And this lie destroys you.”

The most devastating medical crisis in Italy since World War Two is forcing doctors, patients and their families to make decisions that Resta, a former military doctor, said he has not experienced even in war. As of Monday, 2,158 people had died and 27,980 been infected by coronavirus in Italy – the second highest number of reported cases and deaths in the world behind China.

Resta says that 50% of those with COVID-19 who are accepted into intensive care units in Italy are dying, compared with a usual mortality rate of 12% to 16% in such units nationwide.
.
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Old 03-17-20, 03:27 PM
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Here's an article in the New York Times:
from which:
In less than three weeks, the virus has overloaded hospitals in northern Italy, offering a glimpse of what countries face if they cannot slow the contagion.
and
The mayor of one town complained that doctors were forced to decide not to treat the very old, leaving them to die.
and
Regular doctors are suddenly shifting to wartime footing. They face questions of triage as surgeries are canceled, respirators become rare resources, and officials propose converting abandoned exposition spaces into vast intensive care wards.
and
Giorgo Gori, the mayor of Bergamo, said that in some cases in Lombardy the gap between resources and the enormous influx of patients “forced the doctors to decide not to intubate some very old patients,” essentially leaving them to die.
What I am reading and hearing is that there is a healthcare crisis in Italy and in northern Italy there are not enough healthcare resources to meet the demand. I am not making anything up, I am not disparaging any place or anybody, and I am not referencing any crackpot news sources that traffic in rumors and conspiracy theories like Infowars or WND or OAN or, even Fox.
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Old 03-17-20, 03:38 PM
  #38  
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The piece from New York Time is correct. The other 2 pieces are reporting individual sad cases as they are the existing overall situation, and this is not the case.
We are in a difficult situation here in Italy, but we are not leaving our dead unattended.
Regards Andrea
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Old 03-17-20, 03:59 PM
  #39  
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I wouldn't trust NY Times, or Reuters, to wrap fish or line bird cages....
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Old 03-17-20, 07:38 PM
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Originally Posted by canklecat View Post
True, to some extent. But try telling that to dying victims and their families. To them it's personal, not statistics.

Humans are generally able to relate only to whatever directly impacts them. We're not so good at long term planning, deferred pleasures, or sacrificing for the greater good.

Right now, telling government agencies, private industries, etc., to shut down or run minimal staff for a few weeks will impact perhaps a few hundred-thousand people who might otherwise have suffered the effects of illness. Statistically, most people will survive and develop antibodies.

The loss of revenue and efficiency will impact tens or hundreds of millions of people later. Particularly folks who are disabled, on Social Security and Medicaid. There is enough capital in relatively few hands to offset a shortfall, but it's extremely unlikely those wealth holders will make that sacrifice for the greater good. At most there might be a short term, high interest loan to the government to offset the loss of taxes and payroll withholdings to fund Social Security, Medicaid, Medicare, etc. And a likely condition of any such loan will be political clout to sway the entire economic and social system

We'll be experiencing the effects of this for years to come, long past the point when most people will have forgotten how and why we got to such a desperate future point.

But it wouldn't go over well to tell essential personnel to continue going to work, taking reasonable precautions. If a single person died who fit the right demographic type for heart-tugging tragedy news features, it could cause a seismic shift in politics, economics and culture.

.
You know, I am seriously thinking of writing my local paper and saying, please, I'd rather forego treatment in intensive care, should I fall seriously ill, than see the world collapse to save people my age - and let's face it, most (not all) of the people who die have been and will be our age. I don't want to leave the party, but I don't want this on my conscience. I don't want the chance of a decent life stolen from so many people younger than me.

Credit supply can't save the economy, only the end of this pandemic. And the fastest way to get there is to just let it burn, and not try to put out the fire in older trees, other than to assist us at the end with a painless death. How say you?
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Old 03-17-20, 08:58 PM
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If nothing were to be done about the disease, it would spread until herd immunity was established and because there was no immunity at all to this virus in the U.S. before it's arrival, that might be 50% of the U.S. population or more. See this MIT article. So, maybe 164 million Americans would contract the disease. The age distribution in the U.S. in 2018 was: under 15 about 18.7%, 15-64 65.5%, over 64 about 15.8%. The death rate for the disease is not known precisely, but current estimates are that for those 15-64 0.5% will die, for those 65 and older about 2.7% will die. If we assume that nobody under 15 dies, these numbers result in about 1.24 million U.S. deaths, about 700,000 over 65 and about 540,000 from 15-64.

Another article in MIT Technology Review gives the estimate that there might be 214 million infections and 1.7 million deaths if nothing is done. The article does not give the numbers used to calculate the estimate.

edit: the estimates for herd immunity, I believe, assume that there can be no re-infections. That is, an infection imparts immunity to the host. That is what's hoped for and indications are that it's true, but it may not be 100% true, and if not, it's not known what percentage of people infected fail to gain immunity.

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Old 03-18-20, 08:16 AM
  #42  
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Thanks, MIT Tech Review has great articles.

By the way, not being funny, but what are 'hippy dippy dick lickers' (a reference was made to same in the California over 65 thread) (I live under a rock.)
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Old 03-18-20, 08:42 AM
  #43  
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The US is on the same trajectory as Italy, with the same growth rate. We are maybe 10 days behind them.
Hopefully, more seniors and at-risk people will stay isolated and avoid the virus for a long time. I don't think we/they can be too careful. Soon, the hospitals are going to be overwhelmed.

I hope to see the graph's growth rate start to decrease in a couple of weeks, but so far, no change.

March 16 chart. The dashed line is Italy cases. Total since 100 were reported.
EDIT-- March 17 link. Sweden is doing a bit better.
An explanation of this chart: link


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Old 03-20-20, 06:00 PM
  #44  
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At 77 with a few medical conditions I am staying home and have for 1 week already; I will not do my usual Sat. and Sun. group rides but still ride solo.
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Old 03-20-20, 06:44 PM
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Still contemplating whether to ride tomorrow or not. Logic and everything thing I have read is that it is safe to ride if you keep your distance (6 feet) from others. At this time, our healtcare system is not overloaded (yet), so if I were to crash, I'm extremely unlikely to place any burden on them. So I'm inclined to go ... based on the best information I have. Others have expressed the opinion that no one should ride at all and to risk a burden on the system is selfish. I would agree if we were overloaded at this point, but we are not.

An interesting side note. Back 9 days ago, I mentioned I had an opportunity to see the Lakers play the Nets, with the seats right behind the Laker bench. I declined, because I thought it unwise to go to an arena with some 20,000 people in close proximity, particularly since so many of those people were likely contagious and asymptomatic. Today, three Lakers were diagnosed (although they are asymptomatic), and most presume they were infected at that game with the Nets (four of their players tested positive). Who knows what happens from here, but I think that was the right decision.

Whether the decision is riding tomorrow or going to a Laker game, I'm going to be consistent and true to myself ... I'll go with logic and numbers.
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Old 03-20-20, 07:14 PM
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Originally Posted by Biker395 View Post
Still contemplating whether to ride tomorrow or not. Logic and everything thing I have read is that it is safe to ride if you keep your distance (6 feet) from others. At this time, our healtcare system is not overloaded (yet), so if I were to crash, I'm extremely unlikely to place any burden on them. So I'm inclined to go ... based on the best information I have. Others have expressed the opinion that no one should ride at all and to risk a burden on the system is selfish. I would agree if we were overloaded at this point, but we are not.

An interesting side note. Back 9 days ago, I mentioned I had an opportunity to see the Lakers play the Nets, with the seats right behind the Laker bench. I declined, because I thought it unwise to go to an arena with some 20,000 people in close proximity, particularly since so many of those people were likely contagious and asymptomatic. Today, three Lakers were diagnosed (although they are asymptomatic), and most presume they were infected at that game with the Nets (four of their players tested positive). Who knows what happens from here, but I think that was the right decision.

Whether the decision is riding tomorrow or going to a Laker game, I'm going to be consistent and true to myself ... I'll go with logic and numbers.
Go ahead and ride. Carry all your own supplies, including all you'll need to eat and drink, and minimize your risks of an accident.
This situation isn't going away in a week and probably not in a month. Be cautious and do what is safe, but pay attention to your sanity and health.
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Old 03-20-20, 09:28 PM
  #47  
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Originally Posted by Biker395 View Post
Still contemplating whether to ride tomorrow or not. Logic and everything thing I have read is that it is safe to ride if you keep your distance (6 feet) from others. At this time, our healtcare system is not overloaded (yet), so if I were to crash, I'm extremely unlikely to place any burden on them. So I'm inclined to go ... based on the best information I have. Others have expressed the opinion that no one should ride at all and to risk a burden on the system is selfish. I would agree if we were overloaded at this point, but we are not.
I'll be riding tomorrow, hoping to get on the bike twice. A 35 miler in the morning and another 12 miles on road or an hour off-road with the kiddos later. There's enough of a wind around here that I just don't see anything hanging out in the air that by the same logic wouldn't get me in the yard and I'm going stir crazy from having them locked up except for rides for the last week and so are they.
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Old 03-21-20, 11:36 AM
  #48  
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Originally Posted by Andybasi View Post
here in Italy all competition, at every level (from children to professional) for every sport have been cancelled; also, going out even for a solo training is forbidden, police can stop you and fine you for leaving home without a seriuos reason (training is considered a serious reason only if you are a professional rider).
Andrea
I fail to see the logic of that. Social distancing is crucial, so no group rides and no pacelines or peletons, but solo riding, as we all know, is a great way to get exercise while avoiding people.
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Old 03-21-20, 11:39 AM
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Originally Posted by rm -rf View Post
The US is on the same trajectory as Italy, with the same growth rate. We are maybe 10 days behind them.
Hopefully, more seniors and at-risk people will stay isolated and avoid the virus for a long time. I don't think we/they can be too careful. Soon, the hospitals are going to be overwhelmed.

I hope to see the graph's growth rate start to decrease in a couple of weeks, but so far, no change.

March 16 chart. The dashed line is Italy cases. Total since 100 were reported.
EDIT-- March 17 link. Sweden is doing a bit better.
An explanation of this chart: link
Note that the smoking rate is 40% higher in Italy than in the US. In Asia, where most men smoke and most women don't, the COVID-19 death rate was far higher for men than for women.
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Old 03-21-20, 11:45 AM
  #50  
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Originally Posted by John E View Post
Note that the smoking rate is 40% higher in Italy than in the US. In Asia, where most men smoke and most women don't, the COVID-19 death rate was far higher for men than for women.
Thanks for sharing that info. Will continue to resist the urge for a cigarette - last one was in 1975.
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