Helix Update?
10-02-18, 12:48 PM
#1301
Senior Member
This thread is starting to sound like a religious debate between the faithful and the not-so-faithful!
10-02-18, 03:50 PM
#1302
Member
I do not think valueing a backer's position at $100 per bike is serious. I don't remember the original prices, but you're talking about a backer selling off their investment for a loss of at least $2000. Come on, that's just insulting. There's no point is giving your money away when you can just hold the position and see if the bikes show up.
Of course you might estimate the chances of success higher. If you think there is a 50% probability the Helix will succeed and a bike will be worth $2500 then $1250 would be the rational price for one backer position. In the absence of any details both assumptions seem equally reasonable.
What might make one suspicious is that the backer selling their share has better information to estimate how likely success is than the person buying in. (Assuming they aren't already a backer.)
10-02-18, 08:22 PM
#1303
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I do not think valueing a backer's position at $100 per bike is serious. I don't remember the original prices, but you're talking about a backer selling off their investment for a loss of at least $2000. Come on, that's just insulting. There's no point is giving your money away when you can just hold the position and see if the bikes show up.
We are really in the same boat the backers and long waiting buyers, as we both can just wait it out. I'd I pay $2000 easily for a Helix if it comes out, but by Christmas I'll have a brand new Brompton NuVinci from Kinetics and I'll be set for at least 5 years.
I'd love to own a Helix, but even if production begins in mid-2019, it will probably be 3-5 years before I get a chance to own one (how many backer/preorders bikes have to be made before even 1 new customer bike is sold???). By then, I'll get to see all the YouTubes on how the bike backpacks (my chief priority with a folding bike) and the used ones will probably start coming on the market for me to buy at very discounted prices.
10-02-18, 08:35 PM
#1304
Senior Member
Ok, we know the deal being offered isn't worth anything to you. I simply do not see how this is a data point worth the typing time. Nobody is coughing up a backer position at almost a total loss.
10-03-18, 07:33 AM
#1305
Widely Despised
How good of a deal $100 for the possibility of getting a Helix is, totally depends on how you estimate the chances of the project. If you think to have good data to deduce the chances for Helix to actually deliver is below 1%, then this is actually a very good deal and in no way insulting. To only consider how much you paid for your backer position originally without looking at the chances of success are a good example of sunk cost fallacy. In this case your backer position won't be worth as much as you already lost the money. The only reason not to sell is that it would mean admitting you already lost money.
Of course you might estimate the chances of success higher. If you think there is a 50% probability the Helix will succeed and a bike will be worth $2500 then $1250 would be the rational price for one backer position. In the absence of any details both assumptions seem equally reasonable.
What might make one suspicious is that the backer selling their share has better information to estimate how likely success is than the person buying in. (Assuming they aren't already a backer.)
Of course you might estimate the chances of success higher. If you think there is a 50% probability the Helix will succeed and a bike will be worth $2500 then $1250 would be the rational price for one backer position. In the absence of any details both assumptions seem equally reasonable.
What might make one suspicious is that the backer selling their share has better information to estimate how likely success is than the person buying in. (Assuming they aren't already a backer.)
It just needs a record of sales, deliveries, continuing production & positive reviews.
For those of us who want the 24" wheels & elegantly compact fold, it's a better bike
than the Burke, which is another titanium folder. It costs around $5,000.
https://portapedalbike.com/catalog/s...cles-burke-20/
So for me, getting in early meant having it sooner at a lower cost.
The updates from Helix give me confidence that they'll deliver.
10-03-18, 09:30 AM
#1306
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$100 or $200 is woefully insufficient motivation for a backer to unload. At that amount, they might just as well hang on and see if the bike arrives; even if it is crap, the titanium alone is worth more than that. Half value or even more is usually what it takes to pick off the weakest links.
10-03-18, 04:53 PM
#1307
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How good of a deal $100 for the possibility of getting a Helix is, totally depends on how you estimate the chances of the project. If you think to have good data to deduce the chances for Helix to actually deliver is below 1%, then this is actually a very good deal and in no way insulting. To only consider how much you paid for your backer position originally without looking at the chances of success are a good example of sunk cost fallacy. In this case your backer position won't be worth as much as you already lost the money. The only reason not to sell is that it would mean admitting you already lost money.
Of course you might estimate the chances of success higher. If you think there is a 50% probability the Helix will succeed and a bike will be worth $2500 then $1250 would be the rational price for one backer position. In the absence of any details both assumptions seem equally reasonable.
What might make one suspicious is that the backer selling their share has better information to estimate how likely success is than the person buying in. (Assuming they aren't already a backer.)
Of course you might estimate the chances of success higher. If you think there is a 50% probability the Helix will succeed and a bike will be worth $2500 then $1250 would be the rational price for one backer position. In the absence of any details both assumptions seem equally reasonable.
What might make one suspicious is that the backer selling their share has better information to estimate how likely success is than the person buying in. (Assuming they aren't already a backer.)
Look up Elio Car on Google - there are 6-7K backers that have paid some money in advance and they have been waiting longer than the Helix backers. If I would buy one of the Helix positions, it would be 10 cents on the dollar at best. The Helix is worth 20 cents on the dollar to me and no more. Anyone paying more doesn't consider the cost lost to time (forget even that the investment has more than just a small chance of zero ROI).
10-03-18, 06:22 PM
#1308
Senior Member
Dude, nobody cares that you want a Helix for a hundred dollars. No one is selling that.
10-03-18, 08:31 PM
#1309
Widely Despised
This is probably the most level-headed way to look at this - the backers at this point are all viewing their investment as a sunk cost. In the 2-3 years of waiting for the Helix, I've purchased Rhodium bullion (Baird was the only seller) when it was well under $1K and now I am buying Platinum and Silver. Today, I can buy easily a Helix with just one ounce of Rhodium. So to me, I view even just $1,000 for the 2 Helixes (or $500 each) an extremely poor investment (heck, it's actually gambling).
Look up Elio Car on Google - there are 6-7K backers that have paid some money in advance and they have been waiting longer than the Helix backers. If I would buy one of the Helix positions, it would be 10 cents on the dollar at best. The Helix is worth 20 cents on the dollar to me and no more. Anyone paying more doesn't consider the cost lost to time (forget even that the investment has more than just a small chance of zero ROI).
Have any backers take you up on your generous offers?
Last edited by Revoltingest; 10-04-18 at 08:51 AM.
10-03-18, 10:20 PM
#1310
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This is probably the most level-headed way to look at this - the backers at this point are all viewing their investment as a sunk cost. In the 2-3 years of waiting for the Helix, I've purchased Rhodium bullion (Baird was the only seller) when it was well under $1K and now I am buying Platinum and Silver. Today, I can buy easily a Helix with just one ounce of Rhodium. So to me, I view even just $1,000 for the 2 Helixes (or $500 each) an extremely poor investment (heck, it's actually gambling).
Look up Elio Car on Google - there are 6-7K backers that have paid some money in advance and they have been waiting longer than the Helix backers. If I would buy one of the Helix positions, it would be 10 cents on the dollar at best. The Helix is worth 20 cents on the dollar to me and no more. Anyone paying more doesn't consider the cost lost to time (forget even that the investment has more than just a small chance of zero ROI).
10-06-18, 12:00 AM
#1311
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@ Gibsonsean - I might be interested in the 2 bikes. I'd like to get details (ie, how configured, how much was originally pledged, how to pay, how to transfer ownership with Helix) - please send PM. Thanks.
Last edited by j_b_r; 10-06-18 at 12:22 AM.
10-06-18, 12:48 AM
#1312
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For future reference, transfer works by agreeing the terms and transferring funds privately and either emailing Helix to transfer the order (which I preferred to make it 'official'), or the backer just handing over the password and buyer changing the contact and login details (as others have done for convenience). I used an escrow service for the funds transfer but others have been more trusting. I wrote a detailed process in a previous post that I can dig out if you want it.
On configuration, I believe you will be able to change this on final confirmation before shipping. It is not clear how the changed cost will be handled in a downstep - refund or credit for accessories. Same for shipping fees. I did therefore take on an order the config that I wanted.
I can point anyone else looking to transfer in your direction if you remain interested. No guarantees as at least one backer is looking to take on another order.
Alternatively, you could try posting on the Kickstarter page comments section. It seems there are many backers there who have never logged in to the backer portal and therefore are deeply frustrated at the lack of news. You may find someone there willing to transfer.
10-06-18, 12:54 AM
#1313
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Seems you have to be a backer to comment. I don't know if that just means have a KS account or that you have to have been a Helix backer.
10-06-18, 01:31 AM
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Sorry, the backer has just last night posted that they've closed a deal on transfer of the bikes, to the disappointment of another backer who had expressed interest.
For future reference, transfer works by agreeing the terms and transferring funds privately and either emailing Helix to transfer the order (which I preferred to make it 'official'), or the backer just handing over the password and buyer changing the contact and login details (as others have done for convenience). I used an escrow service for the funds transfer but others have been more trusting. I wrote a detailed process in a previous post that I can dig out if you want it.
On configuration, I believe you will be able to change this on final confirmation before shipping. It is not clear how the changed cost will be handled in a downstep - refund or credit for accessories. Same for shipping fees. I did therefore take on an order the config that I wanted.
I can point anyone else looking to transfer in your direction if you remain interested. No guarantees as at least one backer is looking to take on another order.
Alternatively, you could try posting on the Kickstarter page comments section. It seems there are many backers there who have never logged in to the backer portal and therefore are deeply frustrated at the lack of news. You may find someone there willing to transfer.
For future reference, transfer works by agreeing the terms and transferring funds privately and either emailing Helix to transfer the order (which I preferred to make it 'official'), or the backer just handing over the password and buyer changing the contact and login details (as others have done for convenience). I used an escrow service for the funds transfer but others have been more trusting. I wrote a detailed process in a previous post that I can dig out if you want it.
On configuration, I believe you will be able to change this on final confirmation before shipping. It is not clear how the changed cost will be handled in a downstep - refund or credit for accessories. Same for shipping fees. I did therefore take on an order the config that I wanted.
I can point anyone else looking to transfer in your direction if you remain interested. No guarantees as at least one backer is looking to take on another order.
Alternatively, you could try posting on the Kickstarter page comments section. It seems there are many backers there who have never logged in to the backer portal and therefore are deeply frustrated at the lack of news. You may find someone there willing to transfer.
Last edited by j_b_r; 10-06-18 at 01:39 AM.
10-06-18, 06:25 AM
#1315
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Thanks for letting me know. I would be interested in being contacted by other backers interested in transferring their pledges from here, the backer portal, or Kickstarter. Unfortunately I can't post my interest in the Helix Kickstarter campaign because I'm not a Helix backer. If anyone reading this has access to the Helix comments section I would appreciate if you could post a comment indicating my interest in a pledge transfer for up to 2 Helix. It looks like I can't receive PMs here on Bike Forums due to the moderator's 10 post lockout for new forum members so the best way to let me know of someone interested in a potential transfer would be to email me at j_b_r (at) comcast (dot) net. Thanks.
Good luck.
10-06-18, 01:13 PM
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10-06-18, 10:02 PM
#1317
Widely Despised
An update has arrived.
Manufacturing & assembly are proceeding.
Manufacturing & assembly are proceeding.
10-07-18, 07:11 PM
#1318
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To those wishing to acquire a place in the backer's queue...
...if this is of any relevance to this recent interest in transferring ownership:
There is one orphan bike, #382, the one formerly assigned to me. Since I was expelled - the only known case - by Peter B and refunded without a transaction to a replacement taking place, the backers' spot for #382 should be vacant.
It is unclear what Peter will do with that production bike since serial numbers by their very nature have to be continuous. Sell it as the lowest numbered pre-order perhaps. Or perhaps if someone asks that autocrat nicely LOL, he'll let you become a new backer. Just don't mention we're associated in any way, otherwise he may get upset. One day, a little birdy capable of speech just happened to come by your open window and told you 382 is vacant. LOooooL
There is one orphan bike, #382, the one formerly assigned to me. Since I was expelled - the only known case - by Peter B and refunded without a transaction to a replacement taking place, the backers' spot for #382 should be vacant.
It is unclear what Peter will do with that production bike since serial numbers by their very nature have to be continuous. Sell it as the lowest numbered pre-order perhaps. Or perhaps if someone asks that autocrat nicely LOL, he'll let you become a new backer. Just don't mention we're associated in any way, otherwise he may get upset. One day, a little birdy capable of speech just happened to come by your open window and told you 382 is vacant. LOooooL
Last edited by RichardLee; 10-07-18 at 08:22 PM.
10-08-18, 12:05 AM
#1319
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If someone trust Helix and want an Helix bike as soon as possible (whatever "soon" mean...), the best is to wait for the per-order to reopen.
If you look at what happened on other kickstarter projects, most of the time per-ordered items are delivered faster than backers items.
the reason for this is that per-orders are orders, those people are customers buying a product and are covered by the consumer protections laws while backers aren't customers, they are just investors.
For several kickstarter projects, the product was even available in shops before backers receive their reward (this is what currently happens with the Vellobike+: you can buy one Veloo****+ in a dealer shop while most backers haven't received their bike yet and even don't know when they will receive it).
There is also no evidence that first backers in the list receiver their reward before backers that came later.
If you look at what happened on other kickstarter projects, most of the time per-ordered items are delivered faster than backers items.
the reason for this is that per-orders are orders, those people are customers buying a product and are covered by the consumer protections laws while backers aren't customers, they are just investors.
For several kickstarter projects, the product was even available in shops before backers receive their reward (this is what currently happens with the Vellobike+: you can buy one Veloo****+ in a dealer shop while most backers haven't received their bike yet and even don't know when they will receive it).
There is also no evidence that first backers in the list receiver their reward before backers that came later.
10-10-18, 12:29 PM
#1320
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...if this is of any relevance to this recent interest in transferring ownership:
There is one orphan bike, #382 , the one formerly assigned to me. Since I was expelled - the only known case - by Peter B and refunded without a transaction to a replacement taking place, the backers' spot for #382 should be vacant.
It is unclear what Peter will do with that production bike since serial numbers by their very nature have to be continuous. Sell it as the lowest numbered pre-order perhaps. Or perhaps if someone asks that autocrat nicely LOL, he'll let you become a new backer. Just don't mention we're associated in any way, otherwise he may get upset. One day, a little birdy capable of speech just happened to come by your open window and told you 382 is vacant. LOooooL
There is one orphan bike, #382 , the one formerly assigned to me. Since I was expelled - the only known case - by Peter B and refunded without a transaction to a replacement taking place, the backers' spot for #382 should be vacant.
It is unclear what Peter will do with that production bike since serial numbers by their very nature have to be continuous. Sell it as the lowest numbered pre-order perhaps. Or perhaps if someone asks that autocrat nicely LOL, he'll let you become a new backer. Just don't mention we're associated in any way, otherwise he may get upset. One day, a little birdy capable of speech just happened to come by your open window and told you 382 is vacant. LOooooL
However, please do note that the missing backer #382 will in no way interfer with the serial numbering.
During the Kickstarter campaign, there were pledges available for two bikes. Therefore, there are single backer numbers that correspond to two bikes (I have one of those). And therefore, there will be slight differences between backer numbers and the serial bike numbers..
10-12-18, 08:25 PM
#1321
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@Gibsonsean - Thanks for your input, I greatly appreciate it. I've got a quick question for you but I can't send it via PM since I still haven't met the Bike Forum's 10 post minimum to send / receive PMs. When you have a moment I'd appreciate if you could email me at j_b_r (at) comcast (dot) net. Thanks.
10-20-18, 10:11 AM
#1322
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One of these weekends someone’s thread post is gonna day “the bikes have shipped”!!! I can’t wait 
I wonder what this weekends update is gonna be??
I wonder what this weekends update is gonna be??
10-20-18, 12:29 PM
#1323
Member
10-20-18, 03:22 PM
#1324
Senior Member
The last time we had any solid hints of news was about a month ago when we learned of a video showing off something resembling a bike. It's really impossible to say if that means it's close to production ready or if it's just a prototype and it's back to the drawing board.
10-20-18, 11:28 PM
#1325
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The last time we had any solid hints of news was about a month ago when we learned of a video showing off something resembling a bike. It's really impossible to say if that means it's close to production ready or if it's just a prototype and it's back to the drawing board.