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Driverless cars today... where will they be in 5 years...

Old 01-21-20, 07:11 PM
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In the future the least expensive cars will be fully self-driving and not have a steering wheel. The human driving package will cost extra. Only rich people will get to drive their own cars.
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Old 01-21-20, 07:59 PM
  #302  
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In the near future, cars will still be human-driven, but might not allow you to tailgate. An added bonus is traffic could flow faster overall.

If that sounds crazy, remember cars and trucks have speed governors now.
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Old 01-22-20, 05:07 AM
  #303  
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Originally Posted by Seattle Forrest View Post
In the near future, cars will still be human-driven, but might not allow you to tailgate. An added bonus is traffic could flow faster overall.

If that sounds crazy, remember cars and trucks have speed governors now.
I wonder how well our roads would work for 100MPH + vehicles... I understand that current performance cars are limited to 155MPH and econo sedans are limited to about 110... largely due to aerodynamic handing, proper tires (z rating) and driver reaction times (generally poor).
​​​​​
But are the curves and banks of the freeways designed for very high speed? No doubt any car driven on any road will be limited to the conditions of that roadway.

Frankly, high speed "AV pelotons" are very far in the future...

Last edited by genec; 01-22-20 at 05:11 AM.
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Old 01-27-20, 09:53 AM
  #304  
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Originally Posted by Rollfast View Post
Who gets it when they go under?
You mean when ‹ber goes Unter?
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Old 01-29-20, 06:53 PM
  #305  
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Hopefully they won't be trying to hard to be safe when autonomously taking me to the ER.
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Old 02-14-20, 05:37 PM
  #306  
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Where is my self driving car... it's 2020 already...
A serious assessment of the self driving car future direction.
https://www.vox.com/platform/amp/fut...mo-cruise-uber

In some senses, we’ve been “close” on self-driving cars for years now. Waymo is doing test runs with no one behind the wheel in Arizona, which it’s been doing since 2017. Cruise delayed the 2019 launch of its autonomous taxi service but thinks it might happen in 2020. Earlier this year, the company unveiled a car with no steering wheel ... and no timetable for when it’ll be available for sale. Tesla’s periodic software updates make its Autopilot highway self-driving work better, but it remains well short of full self-driving.

But it is exasperatingly difficult to get a good estimate of how long until self-driving cars happen for real for the typical American, both because no one knows for sure and because companies have incentives to publicize optimistic estimates. The companies boast about their progress but don’t publish their mishaps. Timelines slip, and the change in plans is often publicly acknowledged only long after it’s become obvious that the deadline can’t be met.
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Old 02-14-20, 05:50 PM
  #307  
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Originally Posted by genec View Post
Quote:
In some senses, weíve been ďcloseĒ on self-driving cars for years now. Waymo is doing test runs with no one behind the wheel in Arizona, which itís been doing since 2017. Cruise delayed the 2019 launch of its autonomous taxi service but thinks it might happen in 2020. Earlier this year, the company unveiled a car with no steering wheel ... and no timetable for when itíll be available for sale. Teslaís periodic software updates make its Autopilot highway self-driving work better, but it remains well short of full self-driving.

But it is exasperatingly difficult to get a good estimate of how long until self-driving cars happen for real for the typical American, both because no one knows for sure and because companies have incentives to publicize optimistic estimates. The companies boast about their progress but donít publish their mishaps. Timelines slip, and the change in plans is often publicly acknowledged only long after itís become obvious that the deadline canít be met.
Who wudda thunk it, besides some dimwit Luddites, eh? After all cruise control is just a shot away!
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Old 02-19-20, 07:54 AM
  #308  
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Originally Posted by genec View Post
Where is my self driving car... it's 2020 already...
A serious assessment of the self driving car future direction.
https://www.vox.com/platform/amp/fut...mo-cruise-uber
The writing may be on the wall for Google's underwriting of it's "moonshot/Other Bets" effort with Waymo.
Google cuts one of its moonshot money burner projects
Extract:
Google parent Alphabet is killing off its wind energy subsidiary, Makani, as the company increasingly espouses financial discipline for its so-called moonshot projects.

Despite strong technical progress, the road to commercialization is longer and riskier than hoped, so from today Makani’s time at Alphabet is coming to an end,” the company’s CEO, Fort Felker, announced in a blog post Tuesday.

Makani, which had received an outside investment from Shell and spun out into an independent company within Alphabet’s “Other Bets” division last February, aimed to make wind energy cheaper by installing large power-harvesting kites offshore. The news of its closure comes shortly after Alphabet’s disappointing earnings report, where the losses from its Other Bets swelled to $4.8 billion in 2019, up from $3.4 billion the year before. Along with Makani, that division includes other longer term efforts, like autonomous vehicle unit Waymo and healthcare company Verily.

Makani’s sunset marks one of the first big moves of new Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai, who took the reins from Google founder Larry Page in December. On both the earnings call and in a recent interview, Pichai has stressed how the company has adapted its strategy for its Other Bets, like by increasingly seeking third-party investors.

“We are definitely at a phase where, while we take a long-term view, we also want to marry that with the discipline of making sure they are doing well,” he told Fortune regarding the Other Bets in January.
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Old 02-20-20, 01:00 PM
  #309  
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Here's a problem that will need to be addressed:

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/6...iles-per-hour/

A piece of tape on a speed limit sign fooled a tesla into thinking it said 85 instead of 35.



That said, why not just fully modify it into an 85? Almost all humans would understand that can't be right in this context (actually probably most wouldn't even notice it), but a few would be all HELL YEAH

Also:

In an 18-month-long research process, Trivedi and Povolny replicated and expanded upon a host of adversarial machine-learning attacks including a study from UC Berkeley professor Dawn Song that used stickers to trick a self-driving car into believing a stop sign was a 45-mile-per-hour speed limit sign. Last year, hackers tricked a Tesla into veering into the wrong lane in traffic by placing stickers on the road in an adversarial attack meant to manipulate the car’s machine-learning algorithms.
I imagine cars will have backup information about speed limits and stop sign/signal placement in their street map databases, and rules how to decide about conflicting signs (and automatically report them to the maintainer of the database, possibly for human review)
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Old 02-20-20, 03:23 PM
  #310  
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Originally Posted by RubeRad View Post
Here's a problem that will need to be addressed:

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/6...iles-per-hour/

A piece of tape on a speed limit sign fooled a tesla into thinking it said 85 instead of 35.



That said, why not just fully modify it into an 85? Almost all humans would understand that can't be right in this context (actually probably most wouldn't even notice it), but a few would be all HELL YEAH

Also:



I imagine cars will have backup information about speed limits and stop sign/signal placement in their street map databases, and rules how to decide about conflicting signs (and automatically report them to the maintainer of the database, possibly for human review)

Heck my damn GPS is smarter than that... both my cell phone, and my Garmin know the speed limit in any area... this is a Musk flaw... his insistence on using flawed vision systems vice a wide array of sensors and available data, such as GPS.

His Tesla cars just do not have the smarts of a human.

The successful AV will combine sensors that humans don't have, such as IR, radar, and vehicle to vehicle communication, to overcome the lack of analytical brainpower of humans.
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Old 02-20-20, 03:31 PM
  #311  
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Originally Posted by genec View Post
Heck my damn GPS is smarter than that... both my cell phone, and my Garmin know the speed limit in any area...
Which shows this is a solveable (solved, really) problem; the solution just needs to be used.
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Old 02-20-20, 06:47 PM
  #312  
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Originally Posted by RubeRad View Post
Which shows this is a solveable (solved, really) problem; the solution just needs to be used.

Exactly....

This IS a Musk issue.
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Old 02-20-20, 06:52 PM
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That's what my wife says after I come home sweaty from a bike ride
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Old 02-21-20, 03:34 AM
  #314  
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Originally Posted by RubeRad View Post
That tells me there are five Seattle Mariners or Dodge Demons ahead,
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Old 02-21-20, 10:15 AM
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I'm sure that's hilarious, but I don't get it
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Old 02-23-20, 09:42 PM
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The Duster Twister is it's SISTER.
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Old 02-24-20, 01:31 AM
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Originally Posted by RubeRad View Post
I'm sure that's hilarious, but I don't get it
I told somebody your Angela Merkel joke (occupation? no, just visiting) and she said "that sounds like a joke, you probably have to know who Angela Merkel is. Is she a ditz?"
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Old 02-24-20, 10:30 AM
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lol
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Old 02-25-20, 01:43 PM
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One prediction... that closely matches that of our resident curmudgeon...

George Hotz: Fully Self-Driving Cars Are a 'Scam'…:
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Old 02-25-20, 02:13 PM
  #320  
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Originally Posted by genec View Post
One prediction... that closely matches that of our resident curmudgeon...

George Hotz: Fully Self-Driving Cars Are a 'Scam'Ö:
Smart guy. But he's not really criticizing Tesla's approach (which is similar to his own).
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Old 02-26-20, 03:58 PM
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That video is fantastic!

And wait, all cars since 2012 can be steered-by-wire through their OBD-II ports?

And what did he say, I forget: level 4 is 10 years out?

Also outstanding: "Our devices won't upload your facial monitoring to our servers: it's all open source, you can check for yourself"

Also 'we don't sell software'; much like the 3DR mantra of 'sell the atoms, give away the bits'

Seems like his device is every bit as good as Tesla's pilot-assist, with the caveat that it has no side or rear-facing cameras or radar, so it can only monitor the front. But amazing for a $1K package stuffed into an oversided android phone

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Old 02-27-20, 04:41 PM
  #322  
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sad

that person got killed because of a test a company was doing , no commment
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Old 02-27-20, 05:15 PM
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Originally Posted by RubeRad View Post
That video is fantastic!

And wait, all cars since 2012 can be steered-by-wire through their OBD-II ports?

And what did he say, I forget: level 4 is 10 years out?

Also outstanding: "Our devices won't upload your facial monitoring to our servers: it's all open source, you can check for yourself"

Also 'we don't sell software'; much like the 3DR mantra of 'sell the atoms, give away the bits'

Seems like his device is every bit as good as Tesla's pilot-assist, with the caveat that it has no side or rear-facing cameras or radar, so it can only monitor the front. But amazing for a $1K package stuffed into an oversided android phone
I doubt it's as good as Tesla's. Tesla has billions of real world miles of data for AI training - their secret weapon. And without the rear and side cameras the comma.ai system can't change lanes, which Teslas are doing right now.
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Old 02-27-20, 05:19 PM
  #324  
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there's a part in the video where Hotz says like "nudge the steering wheel to the left, and it will change lanes" -- although without side/rear sensors obviously it's totally the driver's responsibility to check that the space is available
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Old 02-27-20, 05:21 PM
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Originally Posted by rossiny View Post
that person got killed because of a test a company was doing , no commment
I'll comment. That person walked a bike in front of a moving car, at night, away from intersections and street lights. This particular victim bears a portion of the responsibility, as does the inattentive 'driver', and Uber, and probably state regulators.

But we have been over this all, above.

Note Hotz seems to lay the blame primarily on the inattentive driver.
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