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Driverless cars today... where will they be in 5 years...

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Driverless cars today... where will they be in 5 years...

Old 02-27-20, 05:37 PM
  #326  
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The key is safety. If driverless cars have 1% of the accidents of cars with drivers, there will be a public outcry. Driverless cars are expected to never have accidents, and they should get very close to that.

So they trial them in small areas. Whenever there is a problem, they make modifications to improve the system. When they are very confident about the safety of driverless cars, they will be rolled out on a larger scale.

The unknown is how many years that will take.

Once it happens, all, or nearly all new cars will be driverless.
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Old 02-27-20, 06:35 PM
  #327  
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I think 1% is an exaggeration, but yes, I think it will (and should) take a rigorously-demonstrated large reduction in automated accidents vs humans before regulations will allow them.

Quite possible that this will cause the U.S. to lag behind other, less bureaucratic countries in the realm of automated cars.
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Old 02-27-20, 11:39 PM
  #328  
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Old 02-28-20, 05:44 AM
  #329  
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Originally Posted by RubeRad View Post
I think 1% is an exaggeration, but yes, I think it will (and should) take a rigorously-demonstrated large reduction in automated accidents vs humans before regulations will allow them.

Quite possible that this will cause the U.S. to lag behind other, less bureaucratic countries in the realm of automated cars.
At this point many new cars have collision avoidance features... I wonder if any of that is showing a statistical reduction in collisions.

There are some early reports that some features seem to be reducing certain types of collisions, but overall, I have not seen any recent reports that indicate a vast reduction in collisions... and certainly Tesla collisions continue to occur, thus bluring the lines even more.

Last edited by genec; 02-28-20 at 05:52 AM.
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Old 02-28-20, 10:02 AM
  #330  
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Originally Posted by genec View Post
At this point many new cars have collision avoidance features... I wonder if any of that is showing a statistical reduction in collisions.

There are some early reports that some features seem to be reducing certain types of collisions, but overall, I have not seen any recent reports that indicate a vast reduction in collisions... and certainly Tesla collisions continue to occur, thus bluring the lines even more.
Are there any statistical breakdowns of Tesla collisions in autopilot vs human-driven buckets? And vs non-Teslas? Or perhaps vs only comparable non-Teslas (like BMWs and other sports cars that would correlate with aggressive driving)?
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Old 02-28-20, 10:52 AM
  #331  
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Originally Posted by genec View Post
At this point many new cars have collision avoidance features... I wonder if any of that is showing a statistical reduction in collisions.

There are some early reports that some features seem to be reducing certain types of collisions, but overall, I have not seen any recent reports that indicate a vast reduction in collisions... and certainly Tesla collisions continue to occur, thus bluring the lines even more.
​​​​​​I heard on the radio that fatal collisions are up in states that have legalized marijuana. Maybe smarter cars are helping to offset that.
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Old 03-07-20, 02:23 AM
  #332  
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Oh, gee, look, you can fool an AV vision system.
https://theconversation.com/amp/auto...stacles-129427

Oh gee, look, you can fool a human, too.
https://www.insider.com/optical-illu...driving-2019-5
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Old 03-09-20, 10:02 AM
  #333  
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The problem with those optical illusion crosswalks is they only tend to 'work' once, or on drivers who only infrequently drive that route and forget it's an illusion.

After the first time, regular drivers will go right back to flying through without looking, while texting and putting on makeup... :/
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Old 03-09-20, 10:03 AM
  #334  
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Cool, but not really comparable. Fooling the human does not cause danger.
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Old 03-10-20, 12:47 AM
  #335  
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Originally Posted by Notso_fastLane View Post
The problem with those optical illusion crosswalks is they only tend to 'work' once, or on drivers who only infrequently drive that route and forget it's an illusion.

After the first time, regular drivers will go right back to flying through without looking, while texting and putting on makeup... :/
Originally Posted by RubeRad View Post
Cool, but not really comparable. Fooling the human does not cause danger.
Fooling the camera only system (Tesla) is pretty easy, with resulting danger that the vehicle sped up.

Fooling the LIDAR system required a complex timing situation, and resulted in braking, that only a human driver, following too closely, would fail to respond to.

Fooling the LIDAR system required precise active timing...
However, it’s more difficult to spoof the LiDAR sensor to “see” a “vehicle” that isn’t there. To succeed, the attacker needs to precisely time the signals shot at the victim LiDAR. This has to happen at the nanosecond level, since the signals travel at the speed of light. Small differences will stand out when the LiDAR is calculating the distance using the measured time-of-flight.
Fooling the human, required paint.
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Old 01-20-21, 06:26 PM
  #336  
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Ran across a couple articles today, although they're a few months old by now:

https://www.vice.com/en/article/93wq...-its-only-plan
And as the Financial Times' Alphaville pointed out back in 2015, the economics of self-driving taxis make no sense. Uber has always been, at best, a low-margin business that depends "heavily on being able to overstep regulation, licensing and—most importantly—transfer maintenance, cleaning, insurance and market-risk exposure to drivers." If cars change from personal assets that spend nearly 90 percent of their time idle to investments that yield revenues, Alphaville asked: "Who exactly would fund and manage a driverless fleet on behalf of Uber?"

... Now that the IPO is done, the rhetoric has changed sharply. By November 2019, six months after its IPO, the tone had changed. In an infamous interview with Axios, he
revealed that "Autonomous is a long way off, it's probably 5 to 10 years off." Khosrowshahi instead pivoted to the idea that "very simple routes that are predictable—repetitive" would see driverless cars sometime "in the next 3 to 5 years."
And that article links to this article:
https://www.autoweek.com/news/techno...-5-robo-taxis/
Earlier this year Khosrowshahi also seemed to suggest that fairly limited, Level 4 geofenced routes was what the company was working toward, because Uber could dominate a limited set of routes in a given city and then build on that. The Uber CEO also acknowledged earlier this year that Level 5 autonomy was a long way off. ... During a year that it had expected to post a partial profit, Uber has faced the perfect storm of reduced travel due to the coronavirus pandemic amid a growing consensus that Level 5 robo-taxis were too far on the horizon to happen within this decade at all, and that Level 4 was too limited and too costly to make money.

So it looks like Uber is saying that the answer to the OP "driverless cars -- where will they be in 5 years?' is at best Level 4.
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Old 01-21-21, 02:26 PM
  #337  
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Should I try to post a picture of my shocked face?

I mean, they are making progress, but it's slow and steady. Unless there's another hardware/software (or combination) breakthrough, it will be as predicted in that article, 10-15 years before practical self driving cars hit the market.
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Old 01-22-21, 01:28 AM
  #338  
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The only recent "breakthrough" on the self driving subject IS rather shocking, but not surprising considering the cast of characters involved:
https://www.thedrive.com/news/38817/...ing-tech-theft
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Old 01-22-21, 08:46 AM
  #339  
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Interesting, I missed that, didn't read the pardon list. This also struck me:
In a case that California federal Judge William Alsup described as the “biggest trade secret crime I have ever seen,”
Do judges specialize in certain criminal areas? Seems like they should (I've heard of Family court judges, but not other specialties). I'd hate to get stuck in court with a judge that's never seen a case like mine before. Adjudicating intellectual property law seems like it would take a very different mindset than homicide or drug dealing
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Old 01-22-21, 11:35 AM
  #340  
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Originally Posted by Notso_fastLane View Post
Should I try to post a picture of my shocked face?

I mean, they are making progress, but it's slow and steady. Unless there's another hardware/software (or combination) breakthrough, it will be as predicted in that article, 10-15 years before practical self driving cars hit the market.
More "news" about rumors and dreamy guesses about the future of Apple Cars. No doubt this "news"will be catnip for devoted fanboys of "elegance" in self driving vaporware, if not breakthrough technology. https://www.axios.com/apple-car-what...dd5f80d71.html
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Old 01-22-21, 11:46 AM
  #341  
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Anybody have any more news from Waymo/Google/Alphabet management about progress in their self driving operation in Chandler, AZ?

Or are they still in an infinite PR loop of working from early in the morning until late in the evening, making many calls and having many meetings?
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Old 01-22-21, 12:15 PM
  #342  
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I still encounter Waymo vehicles all the time, if not every time, on my rides in Chandler. Quite a few of them.
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Old 01-22-21, 12:27 PM
  #343  
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Hopefully 'encounter' is visual only, not physical...
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Old 01-22-21, 12:32 PM
  #344  
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It's really hard to get them to hit me. They are far more responsive than any human motorist I've shared the road with.
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Old 01-22-21, 02:11 PM
  #345  
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Originally Posted by noisebeam View Post
I still encounter Waymo vehicles all the time, if not every time, on my rides in Chandler. Quite a few of them.
Isn't that the only place where you have encountered them for the last several years? I would think these vehicles would have memorized their Chandler routes and traffic patterns by now.

Do they still have Waymo and/or contractor personnel on board as driver backup, fare paying passengers, riding empty or what?
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Old 01-22-21, 03:47 PM
  #346  
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Recent informative article on the status of so-called self driving cars:
The real self-driving revolution remains years away

Note that Google no longer uses the term "self-driving" to describe their autonomous driving technology, essentially because of the corruption and misuse of the adjective/descriptor "Self-driving" applied to vehicles that most definitely are not by the likes of Elon Musk and his fan boys and PR flaks.
Why you'll hear us saying fully autonomous driving tech from now on

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Old 02-08-21, 11:31 AM
  #347  
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Article today:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/kia-is-...-s-11612498065

Hyundai Motor Group , said last month, then sought to play down, that it was in negotiations with Apple to cooperate on an electric driverless car. Apple has never confirmed those talks, and its dalliances with other auto makers in the past have fizzled.
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Old 02-09-21, 07:52 AM
  #348  
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Originally Posted by RubeRad View Post
First sentence of the article:
Kia Corp. has approached potential partners about a plan to assemble Apple Inc.’s long-awaited electric car in Georgia, according to people familiar with the matter.
The second paragraph describes the Apple car as an "electric driverless car."

It seems that is some confusion in assuming that electric cars and driver less cars are interchangeable terms.

Perhaps farther down in the article and behind the paywall the confusion is clarified.

More news with interesting comments, (not behind a paywall) on Apple whatever car rumors.hyundai-apple-car-talks-stopped-report
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Old 02-09-21, 10:18 AM
  #349  
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Yeah, I didn't get past that wsj paywall either. Thx for the link (which as you note, also seems not to know the difference between 'electric' and 'autonomous')
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