Driverless cars today... where will they be in 5 years...
02-27-20, 05:37 PM
#326
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The key is safety. If driverless cars have 1% of the accidents of cars with drivers, there will be a public outcry. Driverless cars are expected to never have accidents, and they should get very close to that.
So they trial them in small areas. Whenever there is a problem, they make modifications to improve the system. When they are very confident about the safety of driverless cars, they will be rolled out on a larger scale.
The unknown is how many years that will take.
Once it happens, all, or nearly all new cars will be driverless.
So they trial them in small areas. Whenever there is a problem, they make modifications to improve the system. When they are very confident about the safety of driverless cars, they will be rolled out on a larger scale.
The unknown is how many years that will take.
Once it happens, all, or nearly all new cars will be driverless.
02-27-20, 06:35 PM
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I think 1% is an exaggeration, but yes, I think it will (and should) take a rigorously-demonstrated large reduction in automated accidents vs humans before regulations will allow them.
Quite possible that this will cause the U.S. to lag behind other, less bureaucratic countries in the realm of automated cars.
Quite possible that this will cause the U.S. to lag behind other, less bureaucratic countries in the realm of automated cars.
02-27-20, 11:39 PM
#328
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I'm still hoping for MOPAR or NO CAR before I die.
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02-28-20, 05:44 AM
#329
genec
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Originally Posted by RubeRad
I think 1% is an exaggeration, but yes, I think it will (and should) take a rigorously-demonstrated large reduction in automated accidents vs humans before regulations will allow them.
Quite possible that this will cause the U.S. to lag behind other, less bureaucratic countries in the realm of automated cars.
Quite possible that this will cause the U.S. to lag behind other, less bureaucratic countries in the realm of automated cars.
There are some early reports that some features seem to be reducing certain types of collisions, but overall, I have not seen any recent reports that indicate a vast reduction in collisions... and certainly Tesla collisions continue to occur, thus bluring the lines even more.
Last edited by genec; 02-28-20 at 05:52 AM.
02-28-20, 10:02 AM
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Originally Posted by genec
At this point many new cars have collision avoidance features... I wonder if any of that is showing a statistical reduction in collisions.
There are some early reports that some features seem to be reducing certain types of collisions, but overall, I have not seen any recent reports that indicate a vast reduction in collisions... and certainly Tesla collisions continue to occur, thus bluring the lines even more.
There are some early reports that some features seem to be reducing certain types of collisions, but overall, I have not seen any recent reports that indicate a vast reduction in collisions... and certainly Tesla collisions continue to occur, thus bluring the lines even more.
02-28-20, 10:52 AM
#331
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Originally Posted by genec
At this point many new cars have collision avoidance features... I wonder if any of that is showing a statistical reduction in collisions.
There are some early reports that some features seem to be reducing certain types of collisions, but overall, I have not seen any recent reports that indicate a vast reduction in collisions... and certainly Tesla collisions continue to occur, thus bluring the lines even more.
There are some early reports that some features seem to be reducing certain types of collisions, but overall, I have not seen any recent reports that indicate a vast reduction in collisions... and certainly Tesla collisions continue to occur, thus bluring the lines even more.
03-07-20, 02:23 AM
#332
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Oh, gee, look, you can fool an AV vision system.
https://theconversation.com/amp/auto...stacles-129427
Oh gee, look, you can fool a human, too.
https://www.insider.com/optical-illu...driving-2019-5
https://theconversation.com/amp/auto...stacles-129427
Oh gee, look, you can fool a human, too.
https://www.insider.com/optical-illu...driving-2019-5
03-09-20, 10:02 AM
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The problem with those optical illusion crosswalks is they only tend to 'work' once, or on drivers who only infrequently drive that route and forget it's an illusion.
After the first time, regular drivers will go right back to flying through without looking, while texting and putting on makeup... :/
After the first time, regular drivers will go right back to flying through without looking, while texting and putting on makeup... :/
03-10-20, 12:47 AM
#335
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Originally Posted by Notso_fastLane
The problem with those optical illusion crosswalks is they only tend to 'work' once, or on drivers who only infrequently drive that route and forget it's an illusion.
After the first time, regular drivers will go right back to flying through without looking, while texting and putting on makeup... :/
After the first time, regular drivers will go right back to flying through without looking, while texting and putting on makeup... :/
Originally Posted by RubeRad
Cool, but not really comparable. Fooling the human does not cause danger.
Fooling the LIDAR system required a complex timing situation, and resulted in braking, that only a human driver, following too closely, would fail to respond to.
Fooling the LIDAR system required precise active timing...
However, it’s more difficult to spoof the LiDAR sensor to “see” a “vehicle” that isn’t there. To succeed, the attacker needs to precisely time the signals shot at the victim LiDAR. This has to happen at the nanosecond level, since the signals travel at the speed of light. Small differences will stand out when the LiDAR is calculating the distance using the measured time-of-flight.
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01-20-21, 06:26 PM
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Ran across a couple articles today, although they're a few months old by now:
https://www.vice.com/en/article/93wq...-its-only-plan
And that article links to this article:
https://www.autoweek.com/news/techno...-5-robo-taxis/
So it looks like Uber is saying that the answer to the OP "driverless cars -- where will they be in 5 years?' is at best Level 4.
https://www.vice.com/en/article/93wq...-its-only-plan
And as the Financial Times' Alphaville pointed out back in 2015, the economics of self-driving taxis make no sense. Uber has always been, at best, a low-margin business that depends "heavily on being able to overstep regulation, licensing and—most importantly—transfer maintenance, cleaning, insurance and market-risk exposure to drivers." If cars change from personal assets that spend nearly 90 percent of their time idle to investments that yield revenues, Alphaville asked: "Who exactly would fund and manage a driverless fleet on behalf of Uber?"
... Now that the IPO is done, the rhetoric has changed sharply. By November 2019, six months after its IPO, the tone had changed. In an infamous interview with Axios, he revealed that "Autonomous is a long way off, it's probably 5 to 10 years off." Khosrowshahi instead pivoted to the idea that "very simple routes that are predictable—repetitive" would see driverless cars sometime "in the next 3 to 5 years."
... Now that the IPO is done, the rhetoric has changed sharply. By November 2019, six months after its IPO, the tone had changed. In an infamous interview with Axios, he revealed that "Autonomous is a long way off, it's probably 5 to 10 years off." Khosrowshahi instead pivoted to the idea that "very simple routes that are predictable—repetitive" would see driverless cars sometime "in the next 3 to 5 years."
https://www.autoweek.com/news/techno...-5-robo-taxis/
Earlier this year Khosrowshahi also seemed to suggest that fairly limited, Level 4 geofenced routes was what the company was working toward, because Uber could dominate a limited set of routes in a given city and then build on that. The Uber CEO also acknowledged earlier this year that Level 5 autonomy was a long way off. ... During a year that it had expected to post a partial profit, Uber has faced the perfect storm of reduced travel due to the coronavirus pandemic amid a growing consensus that Level 5 robo-taxis were too far on the horizon to happen within this decade at all, and that Level 4 was too limited and too costly to make money.
So it looks like Uber is saying that the answer to the OP "driverless cars -- where will they be in 5 years?' is at best Level 4.
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01-21-21, 02:26 PM
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Should I try to post a picture of my shocked face? 
I mean, they are making progress, but it's slow and steady. Unless there's another hardware/software (or combination) breakthrough, it will be as predicted in that article, 10-15 years before practical self driving cars hit the market.
I mean, they are making progress, but it's slow and steady. Unless there's another hardware/software (or combination) breakthrough, it will be as predicted in that article, 10-15 years before practical self driving cars hit the market.
01-22-21, 01:28 AM
#338
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The only recent "breakthrough" on the self driving subject IS rather shocking, but not surprising considering the cast of characters involved:
https://www.thedrive.com/news/38817/...ing-tech-theft
https://www.thedrive.com/news/38817/...ing-tech-theft
01-22-21, 08:46 AM
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Interesting, I missed that, didn't read the pardon list. This also struck me:
Do judges specialize in certain criminal areas? Seems like they should (I've heard of Family court judges, but not other specialties). I'd hate to get stuck in court with a judge that's never seen a case like mine before. Adjudicating intellectual property law seems like it would take a very different mindset than homicide or drug dealing
In a case that California federal Judge William Alsup described as the “biggest trade secret crime I have ever seen,”
01-22-21, 11:35 AM
#340
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Originally Posted by Notso_fastLane
Should I try to post a picture of my shocked face?
I mean, they are making progress, but it's slow and steady. Unless there's another hardware/software (or combination) breakthrough, it will be as predicted in that article, 10-15 years before practical self driving cars hit the market.
I mean, they are making progress, but it's slow and steady. Unless there's another hardware/software (or combination) breakthrough, it will be as predicted in that article, 10-15 years before practical self driving cars hit the market.
01-22-21, 11:46 AM
#341
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Anybody have any more news from Waymo/Google/Alphabet management about progress in their self driving operation in Chandler, AZ?
Or are they still in an infinite PR loop of working from early in the morning until late in the evening, making many calls and having many meetings?
Or are they still in an infinite PR loop of working from early in the morning until late in the evening, making many calls and having many meetings?
01-22-21, 12:15 PM
#342
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I still encounter Waymo vehicles all the time, if not every time, on my rides in Chandler. Quite a few of them.
01-22-21, 12:32 PM
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It's really hard to get them to hit me. They are far more responsive than any human motorist I've shared the road with.
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01-22-21, 02:11 PM
#345
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Originally Posted by noisebeam
I still encounter Waymo vehicles all the time, if not every time, on my rides in Chandler. Quite a few of them.
Do they still have Waymo and/or contractor personnel on board as driver backup, fare paying passengers, riding empty or what?
01-22-21, 03:47 PM
#346
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Recent informative article on the status of so-called self driving cars:
The real self-driving revolution remains years away
Note that Google no longer uses the term "self-driving" to describe their autonomous driving technology, essentially because of the corruption and misuse of the adjective/descriptor "Self-driving" applied to vehicles that most definitely are not by the likes of Elon Musk and his fan boys and PR flaks.
Why you'll hear us saying fully autonomous driving tech from now on
The real self-driving revolution remains years away
Note that Google no longer uses the term "self-driving" to describe their autonomous driving technology, essentially because of the corruption and misuse of the adjective/descriptor "Self-driving" applied to vehicles that most definitely are not by the likes of Elon Musk and his fan boys and PR flaks.
Why you'll hear us saying fully autonomous driving tech from now on
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02-08-21, 11:31 AM
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Article today:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/kia-is-...-s-11612498065
https://www.wsj.com/articles/kia-is-...-s-11612498065
Hyundai Motor Group , said last month, then sought to play down, that it was in negotiations with Apple to cooperate on an electric driverless car. Apple has never confirmed those talks, and its dalliances with other auto makers in the past have fizzled.
02-09-21, 07:52 AM
#348
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Originally Posted by RubeRad
Kia Corp. has approached potential partners about a plan to assemble Apple Inc.’s long-awaited electric car in Georgia, according to people familiar with the matter.
It seems that is some confusion in assuming that electric cars and driver less cars are interchangeable terms.
Perhaps farther down in the article and behind the paywall the confusion is clarified.
More news with interesting comments, (not behind a paywall) on Apple whatever car rumors.hyundai-apple-car-talks-stopped-report
02-09-21, 10:18 AM
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Yeah, I didn't get past that wsj paywall either. Thx for the link (which as you note, also seems not to know the difference between 'electric' and 'autonomous')
