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Driverless cars today... where will they be in 5 years...

Old 01-02-20, 12:19 PM
  #126  
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Welcome to 2020! 4 years to go!
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Old 01-02-20, 12:21 PM
  #127  
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike View Post
“It’s been an enormously difficult, complicated slog, and it’s far more complicated and involved than we thought it would be,” says Nathaniel Fairfield, who leads the team that oversees the decision-making part of Waymo’s onboard software. “But it is a huge deal.”
I can't tell if he's referring to the regulatory red tape (I'm glad regulators are watching closely) or the improving the software.
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Old 01-02-20, 01:21 PM
  #128  
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Originally Posted by RubeRad View Post
Welcome to 2020! 4 years to go!
Until what?
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Old 01-02-20, 01:22 PM
  #129  
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Originally Posted by RubeRad View Post
I can't tell if he's referring to the regulatory red tape (I'm glad regulators are watching closely) or the improving the software.
Take a guess; note that he leads the team that oversees the decision-making part of Waymo’s onboard software.
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Old 01-02-20, 04:25 PM
  #130  
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike View Post
Until what?
The title of the thread is "Driverless cars today... where will they be in 5 years..."
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Old 01-02-20, 04:27 PM
  #131  
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike View Post
Take a guess; note that he leads the team that oversees the decision-making part of Waymo’s onboard software.
But the next 5 paragraphs are about geofencing (a policy decision, not a software issue), chaperoning, NDAs, etc. It's not until the mention of night, haboobs etc do they get to issues that could conceivably present a 'slog' to the automation software
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Old 01-02-20, 04:30 PM
  #132  
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A more relevant paragraph from that article:

Waymo avoids making projections about when driverless cars will go mainstream, but most experts agree that early self-driving predictions were overly optimistic. A starry-eyed assessment is 10 years. Many others say decades as researchers try to conquer a number of obstacles. The vehicles themselves will debut in limited, well-mapped areas within cities and spread outward.
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Old 01-02-20, 05:43 PM
  #133  
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Originally Posted by RubeRad View Post
The title of the thread is "Driverless cars today... where will they be in 5 years..."
Good point... 4 more years, no telling what technological break through may occur.

On Thursday, the company revealed the first information on its new lidar system. Lidar, a laser-based tool that gives autonomous cars "sight," so to speak, is by far the most popular tool for companies to use for self-driving cars. The one major exception remains Tesla, which believes an array of cameras, sensors and radar will be enough.

Bosch said its lidar system is advanced enough to work in both highway and city driving scenarios. Most importantly, it'll work in concert with cameras and radar as the German company wants to create the highest level of safety when it comes to self-driving cars. Lidar fills a "sensor gap," Bosch believes.
Velodyne will demonstrate a lidar sensor that sets a new industry benchmark for size, versatility and affordability, along with new ADAS software, partnerships and customer relationships.

Velodyne will demonstrate how its lidar sensors and Vella software can be applied to create powerful ADAS solutions with improved safety, including pedestrian and bicyclist avoidance, lane-keeping assist, automatic braking and more. Employing lidar, along with a few inexpensive cameras for redundancy, is a revolutionary approach to safety, allowing vehicles to detect and avoid objects in a range of environmental conditions and roadway settings. To achieve safe deployment of autonomous technology, most leaders agree on redundant systems with both lidar and cameras are a must.
Hey two companies with new LIDAR tech. Bosch has announced that it's solution is in the $1000 per vehicle range, vice $75000 (yes, seventy five thousand... for early prototype LIDAR systems), thus making the Bosch system vastly more affordable.

https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/b...-driving-cars/

Well, let's see what happens in 4 more years.

BTW California has approved the use of low speed autonomous transport systems. https://www.theverge.com/2019/12/18/...california-dmv
Not exactly a car, but your pizza may arrive via a "transporter."
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Old 01-02-20, 06:12 PM
  #134  
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LIDAR per se is not new stuff, it's been around for decades, but it has always been very expensive. Cool to see they're able to bring the price down.
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Old 01-02-20, 08:39 PM
  #135  
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Originally Posted by RubeRad View Post
But the next 5 paragraphs are about geofencing (a policy decision, not a software issue), chaperoning, NDAs, etc. It's not until the mention of night, haboobs etc do they get to issues that could conceivably present a 'slog' to the automation software
Those next 5 paragraphs described issues that are in addition to those that were already identified in the preceding paragraph.
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Old 01-02-20, 08:52 PM
  #136  
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Originally Posted by genec View Post
Good point... 4 more years, no telling what technological break through may occur.





Hey two companies with new LIDAR tech. Bosch has announced that it's solution is in the $1000 per vehicle range, vice $75000 (yes, seventy five thousand... for early prototype LIDAR systems), thus making the Bosch system vastly more affordable.

https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/b...-driving-cars/

Well, let's see what happens in 4 more years.

BTW California has approved the use of low speed autonomous transport systems. https://www.theverge.com/2019/12/18/...california-dmv
Not exactly a car, but your pizza may arrive via a "transporter."
No doubt there will be lots more press releases promoting the virtues of the product being promoted. Some of it might progress past the vaporware mode and maybe actually incorporated in a test vehicle or maybe not. Let's see if anybody incorporates any of the latest and greatest good ideas into a practical vehicle that has a chance in heck of being manufactured and sold by any company for profit.
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Old 01-02-20, 09:12 PM
  #137  
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Originally Posted by RubeRad View Post
I can't tell if he's referring to the regulatory red tape (I'm glad regulators are watching closely) or the improving the software.
Which regulators are watching closely? You can't possibly be referring to the see nothing/do nothing jokers in AZ.
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Old 01-02-20, 09:54 PM
  #138  
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike View Post
No doubt there will be lots more press releases promoting the virtues of the product being promoted. Some of it might progress past the vaporware mode and maybe actually incorporated in a test vehicle or maybe not. Let's see if anybody incorporates any of the latest and greatest good ideas into a practical vehicle that has a chance in heck of being manufactured and sold by any company for profit.
Flying cars... flying cars...
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Old 01-03-20, 08:58 AM
  #139  
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Originally Posted by genec View Post
Flying cars... flying cars...
Which techno dream do you think will gain any traction (product sales, not Ponzi-type investor capitalization) in market place sales first, flying cars or autonomous driver less vehicles that can travel outside of a severely limited geo-fenced sandbox? In the next 4 or 5 years?

If driver less vehicles is your answer, who do you think is going to manufacture them? Google, Uber? Soft Bank? Elon Musk? And who is going to buy them - Uber or Lyft or other money burning taxi companies (with what?); enough individuals who will buy any thing that puts them at "the cutting edge of technology" regardless of cost or practicality?
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Old 01-03-20, 10:39 AM
  #140  
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike View Post
Which regulators are watching closely? You can't possibly be referring to the see nothing/do nothing jokers in AZ.
All's I'm sayin is if Mr Waymo thinks the red tape is more of a slog than he expected, I approve.
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Old 01-03-20, 11:49 AM
  #141  
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Originally Posted by genec View Post
Flying cars... flying cars...
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Old 01-03-20, 12:05 PM
  #142  
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike View Post
Which techno dream do you think will gain any traction (product sales, not Ponzi-type investor capitalization) in market place sales first, flying cars or autonomous driver less vehicles that can travel outside of a severely limited geo-fenced sandbox? In the next 4 or 5 years?

If driver less vehicles is your answer, who do you think is going to manufacture them? Google, Uber? Soft Bank? Elon Musk? And who is going to buy them - Uber or Lyft or other money burning taxi companies (with what?); enough individuals who will buy any thing that puts them at "the cutting edge of technology" regardless of cost or practicality?

Apparently you failed to notice that more and more "driver assist" technology (and no doubt eventually self driving technology) is quietly being added to the very automobiles that ordinary PEOPLE are buying.

You somehow envision a day when a switch is thrown and all cars are self driving... not likely. Just like other features in the modern automobile, self driving will be slowly introduced and slowly accepted, by the typical motorist. The exceptions will of course be the Hupmobile drivers that have not looked at a new car in 50-60 years and "would rather die," than stop actually wiggling a wheel to get to point B.

Eventually, when and if safety statistics show autonomous vehicles to be safer than human controlled vehicles... Hupmobiles may be banned from certain roads.

No doubt this is so far in the future that folks of your and my vintage have little reason to worry our heads about the coming wave of robot cars.
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Old 01-03-20, 12:08 PM
  #143  
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Originally Posted by RubeRad View Post
All's I'm sayin is if Mr Waymo thinks the red tape is more of a slog than he expected, I approve.
Mr. Waymo wouldn't find any red tape for his autonomous car tests on public highways in AZ unless he went shopping in a gift wrap store. Testing prototypes on public streets without any local or state government oversight or "red tape", is the name of the game for Waymo's "slog" in AZ, besides the predictable good weather and relative simplicity of the traffic patterns in the selected test area.
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Old 01-03-20, 12:20 PM
  #144  
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Originally Posted by genec View Post
Flying cars... flying cars...
https://www.cnn.com/2019/10/04/tech/...iew/index.html

On Thursday, the ride-hail company launched a
premium helicopter service in New York City with the promise of 8-minute flights to nearby John F. Kennedy airport from downtown Manhattan. Uber intends to expand the service to more US cities and eventually — implausible as it may sound — offer this option to daily commuters who travel to and from neighboring suburbs


I have seen a conference talk from Uber about this, they plan to take advantage of helipads on rooftops all over the city, and the conop will be that people walk a block or two to the nearest heliport. Maybe the last-mile problem on the other end is not so easy. But fully-automated helicopters is I think an easier technical problem than fully-automated cars. Already the public is used to all commercial aircraft being grounded in some well-defined inclement weather conditions, so the task is only to automatically take off, fly an FAA-approved and control-tower monitored flight path, and land, in reasonable weather, and avoid hitting any buildings or other aircraft. That should be easy given redundant systems of GPS+3D map of the city, optical/lidar real-time 'vision', and radio communication with other aircraft and flight control towers.
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Old 01-03-20, 12:49 PM
  #145  
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Originally Posted by genec View Post
Apparently you failed to notice that more and more "driver assist" technology (and no doubt eventually self driving technology) is quietly being added to the very automobiles that ordinary PEOPLE are buying.
Apparently you failed to notice that more and more "driver assist" technology (and no doubt eventually self driving technology) is quietly being added to the very automobiles that ordinary PEOPLE are buying.

You somehow envision a day when a switch is thrown and all cars are self driving... not likely. Just like other features in the modern automobile, self driving will be slowly introduced and slowly accepted, by the typical motorist. The exceptions will of course be the Hupmobile drivers that have not looked at a new car in 50-60 years and "would rather die," than stop actually wiggling a wheel to get to point B.

Eventually, when and if safety statistics show autonomous vehicles to be safer than human controlled vehicles... Hupmobiles may be banned from certain roads.

No doubt this is so far in the future that folks of your and my vintage have little reason to worry our heads about the coming wave of robot cars.
01-03-20 11:49 AM
No matter how little doubt you may have that eventually, one day, someday, sometime in the future, the "coming wave of robot cars" maybe will arrive, vehicles with "driver assist" features are no more driver-less autonomous self-driving vehicles than vehicles equipped with automatic transmissions, digital dashboard displays, and/or power steering.

You are right though about how little we have to worry about the coming wave (or is it vapor-wave) of robot cars in the next four years.

Perhaps the trick is just to rename the existing driver assist features as "autopilot" or FSD/Full Self Driving (capable) as Elon Musk has done, get the fan-boys to pony up $6,000 or so for the privilege of owning cars with such "technology", and call it a day with a banner proclaiming Mission Accomplished!

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Old 01-03-20, 01:02 PM
  #146  
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike View Post
No matter how little doubt you may have that eventually, one day, someday, sometime in the future, the "coming wave of robot cars" maybe will arrive, vehicles with "driver assist" features are no more driver-less autonomous self-driving vehicles than vehicles equipped with automatic transmissions, digital dashboard displays, and/or power steering.

You are right though about how little we have to worry about the coming wave (or is it vapor-wave) of robot cars in the next four years.

Perhaps the trick is just to rename the existing driver assist features as "autopilot" or FSD/Full Self Driving (capable) as Elon Musk has done, get the fan-boys to pony up $6,000 or so for the privilege of owning cars with such "technology", and call it a day with a banner proclaiming Mission Accomplished!
No, Tesla is feeding all those millions of miles of auto-pilot data into its learning system. It's quite clear the mission isn't accomplished.
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Old 01-03-20, 01:02 PM
  #147  
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike View Post
vehicles with "driver assist" features are no more driver-less autonomous self-driving vehicles than vehicles equipped with automatic transmissions, digital dashboard displays, and/or power steering.
Automatic transmissions and cruise control are 'more autonomous' than manual transmissions and manual speed control. 'driver assist' is more autonomous than automatic and CC. Surely that's not debatable. And 'more autonomous' is 'more self-driving' in the sense that the car does more of the driving and requires less input from the user.

And 'driver assist/autopilot' is self driving, while it's driving. So just not 100% self-driving.
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Old 01-03-20, 01:08 PM
  #148  
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Originally Posted by tyrion View Post
No, Tesla is feeding all those millions of miles of auto-pilot data into its learning system. It's quite clear the mission isn't accomplished.
But Tesla still sells the so-called "full self driving" (FSD) feature today for $6000 to fan boys with nothing but an Elon Musk promise that someday, one day this "learning system" will morph into a fully self driving car.
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Old 01-03-20, 01:10 PM
  #149  
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Originally Posted by RubeRad View Post
Automatic transmissions and cruise control are 'more autonomous' than manual transmissions and manual speed control. 'driver assist' is more autonomous than automatic and CC. Surely that's not debatable. And 'more autonomous' is 'more self-driving' in the sense that the car does more of the driving and requires less input from the user.

And 'driver assist/autopilot' is self driving, while it's driving. So just not 100% self-driving.
Too funny!
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Old 01-03-20, 01:19 PM
  #150  
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike View Post
But Tesla still sells the so-called "full self driving" (FSD) feature today for $6000 to fan boys with nothing but an Elon Musk promise that someday, one day this "learning system" will morph into a fully self driving car.
No, the package provides a lot of self driving features right now.
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