genec

@ ILTB... only time will tell... In the meantime, may I suggest some reading you may enjoy...

In Search of Stupidity: Over Twenty Years of High Tech Marketing Disasters

Merrill R. Chapman (Author)

Available on Amazon and maybe your local bookseller.

I-Like-To-Bike

A sensible on topic response related to your own OP question. Can't say that about some of the other responses on this thread.

Thanks for the reading suggestion, I will check with my library for availability. Some of the other posters on this thread might learn something from a book that deals with the subject of stupidity and high Tech marketing disasters. Questionable high tech marketing (AKA reality distortion field spinning) about the timetable for production and availability of DRIVERLESS cars, especially by Mr. Musk, seems to have found a receptive audience.

By coincidence, just today I downloaded an audiobook from the library that seems to deal with a different group of fanboys for dreamy projects. Nuking the Moon - And Other Intelligence Schemes and Military Plots Left on the Drawing Board, by Vince Houghton.
It will have to wait a bit to report on it because there are some other books ahead of it on my personal reading/listening queue.

genec

I honestly feel that we will someday have autonomous "driverless" cars... AI and sensor tech will eventually reach the point where it is inevitable. The bigger question is when... To deny this inevitability is akin to keeping the buggy whip factory open long after the interstates were built. There will be a near quantum shift at some point, as we reach a data juncture and convergence with AI. AI itself is going to pose some interesting ethical issues.. but that is a different thread.

The stunning thing about those tech failures is that often marketing and "the peoples' choice" take us in the wrong direction, away from good tech solutions. The path just becomes longer.

Now having said all that... you and I are not likely to see all this happen... we're near fossils... But we really can't deny it. I remember having "that will never happen" tech debates in the 70s about things we take for granted today.
The Future Happens.

Rollfast

Old Mopars happen over and over.

I-Like-To-Bike

Saying not gonna happen in the next 5 years is NOT claiming "NEVER going to happen." Saying that successfully equipping cars with fancy cruise control and proximity warning signals suitable for maintaing safe highway lane postion indicates that cars even remotely related to driverless car are inevitable sounds like Elon Musk blowing smoke to his fanboys on Twitter.

Yes, driver-less cars might happen "someday" is true, but so far the PR people are way ahead of the hands on engineers and hardware/software developers in bringing this project to fruition.

Next 5 years, not very likely unless driver-less or Level 5 autonomy is redefined to meet the need for "success" of the dreamers.

genec

Level 5 means "anywhere, anytime." Level 4 is quite doable in the next 4 years.

https://www.synopsys.com/automotive/...ng-levels.html

rossiny

genec

While I do NOT disagree with your last statement regarding transit, walking and cycling... I want to point out that yes, just like cameras, and phones now recognize faces, expect cars to do so too.

There are already patents in place for cars to show recognition of people with a smile, and to indicate desired movement. So yes, expect cars to communicate with you and your gestures.

Cyclist hand signals are already received... as reported by cyclists here in the area of AZ where Waymo has autonomous vehicles.

I wonder if those cars recognize the middle finger salute?

I-Like-To-Bike

Lots of press releases and smoke about the newest latest and greatest stuff being promoted asabout to revolutionize driving, and also the shop worn press release from Waymo that provides zero information about when or where they might perform new tricks outside of their geo-fenced comfort zone in Chandler AZ.

BTW, do you know if those Waymo so-called driverless prototypes in AZ are, or are not, being monitored by humans in real time while hauling passengers through the use of on-board cameras so the human monitor can remotely control or correct any problems the prototype software cannot "recognize"?

I-Like-To-Bike

Level 4 is a lame duck version of a real driverless car that can be driven anywhere just like the cars people already possess. Who are the customers ready to buy in the the next 4 years (for who knows how much) such a restricted use vehicle - Tesla fan boys who like to stay close to home?? Who is going to buy the millions of driverless Tesla Taxis that Mr. Musk promises are right around the corner on his Twitter feed?

genec

According to this December 9, 2019 article, the cars are monitored, but not 100% of the time... and passengers can signal for help via a call button.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.the...hoenix-arizona

genec

You do realize that many human drivers are "geofenced" by their lack of driving skills... teen new drivers, drivers with certain cognitive handicaps and other handicaps, and the aged, who are barely abled to drive.

Then there those motorists that should be geofenced... the drunks and those with anger management issues.

Just keep in mind that not every car on the road is "level 5," regardless of who is or isn't "behind the wheel."

RubeRad

No, level 5 means "able to go anywhere and do anything that an experienced human driver can do". In reality, there will be some things that a level 5 car can do better than a human driver (drive within 6 inches of level 5 cars in front and behind, in constant communication and cooperation, stop with quicker reaction time, maintain vigilance for any number of hours at a time with no need for sleep), and there will be some areas where it will only be as capable as, say, a bottom-quartile human driver (extreme weather conditions). So 'navigate in a blizzard after road closures have been announced' may be something that some humans can do (and a lot of humans think they can do but they can't), but it's not something I would expect or desire for a level 5 car to do.

RubeRad

Seriously? There is HUGE demand for level 4! Type in your destination, kick back and read a book or surf your phone or take a nap, if there's ever a problem the car alerts you and/or safely pulls over and you can drive from there.

That's the convenience of keeping your own schedule in your own car, plus being able to kick back as if you were on a subway or a train or a bus, but without having to interact with smelly Other people. It's almost like having a chauffeur, but for an up-front cost instead of an on-going salary.

genec

And likely, within 4 years, on well maintained roads, in good conditions, that capability will be available, in spite of what some here, feel.

tyrion

Yeah, we'll easily have level 4 in 4 years. Tesla was at level 3 last year (2019):


Interesting comment at the end of that video: "everytime you get an update, these things just get slightly better." That video was posted July, 2019, so not sure if that car had Tesla's new super duper FSD chip.

RubeRad

Interesting. At about 4min, he passes a big truck towing another big truck, so cab facing backwards at him -- no confusion there whether maybe the truck was coming at him. Also about 8min, there is pretty extreme sun glare (which was IIRC the condition under which that one tesla plowed under/into a tractor-trailer pulling out)

I-Like-To-Bike

Sounds like the way Uber test cars were part-time "monitored" by their personnel when one of them ran down the woman victim in AZ.

I-Like-To-Bike

Any advantage for people with such handicaps using taxi's without a human driver? Or do you think many of these people are ready to buy for who knows how much $ a car with such limited capabilities

I-Like-To-Bike

And move to Chandler, AZ too, eh? Any word on the "demand" and use for those Level 4 taxis in AZ if the users have to pay for the ride?

RubeRad

You should check out that Tesla Challenge video genec posted. That guy has a commute with 25mi of freeway, in MI. I'm sure he would love to be able to checkout from on-ramp to off-ramp (and his testing seems to be mostly successful (no intervention) and improving as Tesla adds updates).

Here's driving in a snow storm:

If you jump to about 15:30, you'll get to his assessment of F-, despite working well in the middle portion of the drive. I think it's probably fair to say this guy is a Tesla FanBoy, but he's not grading them on a curve.

Notice however, the failures were not safety failures, they were autopilot understanding that its sensors were compromised and refusing to turn on. i.e. the kind of failures we want, and I think acceptable for level 4 to happen like a few days per month.

I-Like-To-Bike

Obviously the failure of the so-called autopilot system to detect traffic or the lanes while underway would have been catastrophic failures if there wasn't a human monitoring its actions 100% of the time. The comments on the YouTube site for this video are amusing , some of the fan boys think that the test results prove how the vehicle is just dandy if it finishes and on ramp to off ramp journey without crashing. That it still needs human intervention off the "test track" of a limited access highway, and wasn't even capable of operating on it without the driver intervening, due to its limitations in less than ideal visibility or obscured lane markings are "facts" they choose to ignore.

Presumably Waymo makes sure that its minions in Chandler keep road markings in tip top condition at all times on its selected test routes in its geo-fenced areas. No need to worry about snow in Chandler mucking up its test taxi service performance record.

noisebeam

One of the most used Chandler waymo routes is under 8 miles of construction with lane diversions, no painted lines, half removed lines, cones, cranes parked into road, etc and still I see several waymo vehicles daily on it.

RubeRad

I don't think so, I think the human could have been reading a book, and responding and taking over when the system raised an alert. Or did you see the driver making any interventions without the system raising an alert?

I-Like-To-Bike

Who/how is the real-time performance of these few Waymo vehicles being monitored, controlled or evaluated? By an assistant driver, passengers, remotely though camera and radio oversight? Or do they just wander aimlessly within the Chandler geo-fence wherever the vehicles' software allow?