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Driverless cars today... where will they be in 5 years...

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Driverless cars today... where will they be in 5 years...

Old 01-05-20, 01:43 PM
  #176  
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@ ILTB... only time will tell... In the meantime, may I suggest some reading you may enjoy...

In Search of Stupidity: Over Twenty Years of High Tech Marketing Disasters

Merrill R. Chapman (Author)

Available on Amazon and maybe your local bookseller.


In Search of Stupidity: Over Twenty Years of High-Tech Marketing Disasters, Second Edition is National Lampoon meets Peter Drucker. It's a funny and well-written business book that takes a look at some of the most influential marketing and business philosophies of the last twenty years. Through the dark glass of hindsight, it provides an educational and entertaining look at why these philosophies didn’t work for many of the country's largest and best-known high-tech companies.
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Old 01-05-20, 03:02 PM
  #177  
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Originally Posted by genec View Post
@ ILTB... only time will tell...
A sensible on topic response related to your own OP question. Can't say that about some of the other responses on this thread.

Thanks for the reading suggestion, I will check with my library for availability. Some of the other posters on this thread might learn something from a book that deals with the subject of stupidity and high Tech marketing disasters. Questionable high tech marketing (AKA reality distortion field spinning) about the timetable for production and availability of DRIVERLESS cars, especially by Mr. Musk, seems to have found a receptive audience.

By coincidence, just today I downloaded an audiobook from the library that seems to deal with a different group of fanboys for dreamy projects. Nuking the Moon - And Other Intelligence Schemes and Military Plots Left on the Drawing Board, by Vince Houghton.
Vividly capturing the fascinating stories of how twenty-one plans from WWII and the Cold War went from conception, planning, and testing to cancellation, Houghton explores what happens when innovation meets desperation.

It will have to wait a bit to report on it because there are some other books ahead of it on my personal reading/listening queue.
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Old 01-05-20, 05:18 PM
  #178  
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I honestly feel that we will someday have autonomous "driverless" cars... AI and sensor tech will eventually reach the point where it is inevitable. The bigger question is when... To deny this inevitability is akin to keeping the buggy whip factory open long after the interstates were built. There will be a near quantum shift at some point, as we reach a data juncture and convergence with AI. AI itself is going to pose some interesting ethical issues.. but that is a different thread.

The stunning thing about those tech failures is that often marketing and "the peoples' choice" take us in the wrong direction, away from good tech solutions. The path just becomes longer.

Now having said all that... you and I are not likely to see all this happen... we're near fossils... But we really can't deny it. I remember having "that will never happen" tech debates in the 70s about things we take for granted today.
The Future Happens.

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Old 01-05-20, 06:38 PM
  #179  
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Originally Posted by genec View Post
I honestly feel that we will someday have autonomous "driverless" cars... AI and sensor tech will eventually reach the point where it is inevitable. The bigger question is when... To deny this inevitability is akin to keeping the buggy whip factory open long after the interstates were built. There will be a near quantum shift at some point, as we reach a data juncture and convergence with AI. AI itself is going to pose some interesting ethical issues.. but that is a different thread.

The stunning thing about those tech failures is that often marketing and "the peoples' choice" take us in the wrong direction, away from good tech solutions. The path just becomes longer.

Now having said all that... you and I are not likely to see all this happen... we're near fossils... But we really can't deny it. I remember having "that will never happen" tech debates in the 70s about things we take for granted today.
The Future Happens.
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Old 01-05-20, 06:44 PM
  #180  
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Originally Posted by genec View Post
I honestly feel that we will someday have autonomous "driverless" cars... AI and sensor tech will eventually reach the point where it is inevitable. The bigger question is when... To deny this inevitability is akin to keeping the buggy whip factory open long after the interstates were built. There will be a near quantum shift at some point, as we reach a data juncture and convergence with AI. AI itself is going to pose some interesting ethical issues.. but that is a different thread.

The stunning thing about those tech failures is that often marketing and "the peoples' choice" take us in the wrong direction, away from good tech solutions. The path just becomes longer.

Now having said all that... you and I are not likely to see all this happen... we're near fossils... But we really can't deny it. I remember having "that will never happen" tech debates in the 70s about things we take for granted today.
The Future Happens.
Saying not gonna happen in the next 5 years is NOT claiming "NEVER going to happen." Saying that successfully equipping cars with fancy cruise control and proximity warning signals suitable for maintaing safe highway lane postion indicates that cars even remotely related to driverless car are inevitable sounds like Elon Musk blowing smoke to his fanboys on Twitter.

Yes, driver-less cars might happen "someday" is true, but so far the PR people are way ahead of the hands on engineers and hardware/software developers in bringing this project to fruition.

Next 5 years, not very likely unless driver-less or Level 5 autonomy is redefined to meet the need for "success" of the dreamers.

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Old 01-05-20, 11:14 PM
  #181  
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike View Post
Saying not gonna happen in the next 5 years is NOT claiming "NEVER going to happen." Saying that successfully equipping cars with fancy cruise control and proximity warning signals suitable for maintaing safe highway lane postion indicates that cars even remotely related to driverless car are inevitable sounds like Elon Musk blowing smoke to his fanboys on Twitter.

Yes, driver-less cars might happen "someday" is true, but so far the PR people are way ahead of the hands on engineers and hardware/software developers in bringing this project to fruition.

Next 5 years, not very likely unless driver-less or Level 5 autonomy is redefined to meet the need for "success" of the dreamers.
Level 5 means "anywhere, anytime." Level 4 is quite doable in the next 4 years.

Level 4 (High Driving Automation)

The key difference between Level 3 and Level 4 automation is that Level 4 vehicles can intervene if things go wrong or there is a system failure. In this sense, these cars do not require human interaction in most circumstances. However, a human still has the option to manually override.

Level 4 vehicles can operate in self-driving mode. But until legislation and infrastructure evolves, they can only do so within a limited area (usually an urban environment where top speeds reach an average of 30mph). This is known as geofencing. As such, most Level 4 vehicles in existence are geared toward ridesharing. For example:
  • NAVYA, a French company, is already building and selling Level 4 shuttles and cabs in the U.S. that run fully on electric power and can reach a top speed of 55 mph.
  • Alphabet's Waymo recently unveiled a Level 4 self-driving taxi service in Arizona, where they had been testing driverless cars―without a safety driver in the seat―for more than a year and over 10 million miles.
  • Canadian automotive supplier Magna has developed technology (MAX4) to enable Level 4 capabilities in both urban and highway environments. They are working with Lyft to supply high-tech kits that turn vehicles into self-driving cars.
  • Just a few months ago, Volvo and Baidu announced a strategic partnership to jointly develop Level 4 electric vehicles that will serve the robotaxi market in China.
https://www.synopsys.com/automotive/...ng-levels.html
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Old 01-06-20, 12:54 AM
  #182  
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Driverless car crap again today I was backing out of a parking spot at the grocery store ,I saw an older gentleman walking to my right ,I looked out the window I looked at him you know I saw him ,,so I waved him on to walk ahead , he looked at me and knew I saw him,, therefore he walked pass the back of my truck ,, after I seen him walk the back past my truck,, I backed out >>>>> where do you find computers that can look at people's eyes and also sensors with accuracy. ???
Personally cars really need to be outlawwed, oil and cars have destroyed nature and humanity. Just look at what is going on in the middle east all the time. Humans are just not good at facing the truth.....

PS, no they should not be outlawed we just need to start taking transit and walk and bike voluntarily, ,, wake up
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Old 01-06-20, 06:05 AM
  #183  
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Originally Posted by rossiny View Post
Driverless car crap again today I was backing out of a parking spot at the grocery store ,I saw an older gentleman walking to my right ,I looked out the window I looked at him you know I saw him ,,so I waved him on to walk ahead , he looked at me and knew I saw him,, therefore he walked pass the back of my truck ,, after I seen him walk the back past my truck,, I backed out >>>>> where do you find computers that can look at people's eyes and also sensors with accuracy. ???
Personally cars really need to be outlawwed, oil and cars have destroyed nature and humanity. Just look at what is going on in the middle east all the time. Humans are just not good at facing the truth.....

PS, no they should not be outlawed we just need to start taking transit and walk and bike voluntarily, ,, wake up
​​​​​​

While I do NOT disagree with your last statement regarding transit, walking and cycling... I want to point out that yes, just like cameras, and phones now recognize faces, expect cars to do so too.

There are already patents in place for cars to show recognition of people with a smile, and to indicate desired movement. So yes, expect cars to communicate with you and your gestures.

Cyclist hand signals are already received... as reported by cyclists here in the area of AZ where Waymo has autonomous vehicles.

I wonder if those cars recognize the middle finger salute?
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Old 01-06-20, 07:33 AM
  #184  
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Originally Posted by genec View Post
... I want to point out that yes, just like cameras, and phones now recognize faces, expect cars to do so too.

There are already patents in place for cars to show recognition of people with a smile, and to indicate desired movement. So yes, expect cars to communicate with you and your gestures.

Cyclist hand signals are already received... as reported by cyclists here in the area of AZ where Waymo has autonomous vehicles.

I wonder if those cars recognize the middle finger salute?
Lots of press releases and smoke about the newest latest and greatest stuff being promoted asabout to revolutionize driving, and also the shop worn press release from Waymo that provides zero information about when or where they might perform new tricks outside of their geo-fenced comfort zone in Chandler AZ.

BTW, do you know if those Waymo so-called driverless prototypes in AZ are, or are not, being monitored by humans in real time while hauling passengers through the use of on-board cameras so the human monitor can remotely control or correct any problems the prototype software cannot "recognize"?

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Old 01-06-20, 07:39 AM
  #185  
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Originally Posted by genec View Post
Level 5 means "anywhere, anytime." Level 4 is quite doable in the next 4 years.
Level 4 is a lame duck version of a real driverless car that can be driven anywhere just like the cars people already possess. Who are the customers ready to buy in the the next 4 years (for who knows how much) such a restricted use vehicle - Tesla fan boys who like to stay close to home?? Who is going to buy the millions of driverless Tesla Taxis that Mr. Musk promises are right around the corner on his Twitter feed?
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Old 01-06-20, 10:26 AM
  #186  
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike View Post
Lots of press releases and smoke about the newest latest and greatest stuff being promoted asabout to revolutionize driving, and also the shop worn press release from Waymo that provides zero information about when or where they might perform new tricks outside of their geo-fenced comfort zone in Chandler AZ.

BTW, do you know if those Waymo so-called driverless prototypes in AZ are, or are not, being monitored by humans in real time while hauling passengers through the use of on-board cameras so the human monitor can remotely control or correct any problems the prototype software cannot "recognize"?
According to this December 9, 2019 article, the cars are monitored, but not 100% of the time... and passengers can signal for help via a call button.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.the...hoenix-arizona
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Old 01-06-20, 10:32 AM
  #187  
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike View Post
Level 4 is a lame duck version of a real driverless car that can be driven anywhere just like the cars people already possess. Who are the customers ready to buy in the the next 4 years (for who knows how much) such a restricted use vehicle - Tesla fan boys who like to stay close to home?? Who is going to buy the millions of driverless Tesla Taxis that Mr. Musk promises are right around the corner on his Twitter feed?
You do realize that many human drivers are "geofenced" by their lack of driving skills... teen new drivers, drivers with certain cognitive handicaps and other handicaps, and the aged, who are barely abled to drive.

Then there those motorists that should be geofenced... the drunks and those with anger management issues.

Just keep in mind that not every car on the road is "level 5," regardless of who is or isn't "behind the wheel."
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Old 01-06-20, 10:49 AM
  #188  
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Originally Posted by genec View Post
Level 5 means "anywhere, anytime." Level 4 is quite doable in the next 4 years.
No, level 5 means "able to go anywhere and do anything that an experienced human driver can do". In reality, there will be some things that a level 5 car can do better than a human driver (drive within 6 inches of level 5 cars in front and behind, in constant communication and cooperation, stop with quicker reaction time, maintain vigilance for any number of hours at a time with no need for sleep), and there will be some areas where it will only be as capable as, say, a bottom-quartile human driver (extreme weather conditions). So 'navigate in a blizzard after road closures have been announced' may be something that some humans can do (and a lot of humans think they can do but they can't), but it's not something I would expect or desire for a level 5 car to do.
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Old 01-06-20, 10:55 AM
  #189  
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike View Post
Level 4 is a lame duck version of a real driverless car that can be driven anywhere just like the cars people already possess. Who are the customers ready to buy in the the next 4 years (for who knows how much) such a restricted use vehicle - Tesla fan boys who like to stay close to home?? Who is going to buy the millions of driverless Tesla Taxis that Mr. Musk promises are right around the corner on his Twitter feed?
Seriously? There is HUGE demand for level 4! Type in your destination, kick back and read a book or surf your phone or take a nap, if there's ever a problem the car alerts you and/or safely pulls over and you can drive from there.

That's the convenience of keeping your own schedule in your own car, plus being able to kick back as if you were on a subway or a train or a bus, but without having to interact with smelly Other people. It's almost like having a chauffeur, but for an up-front cost instead of an on-going salary.
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Old 01-06-20, 11:21 AM
  #190  
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Originally Posted by RubeRad View Post
Seriously? There is HUGE demand for level 4! Type in your destination, kick back and read a book or surf your phone or take a nap, if there's ever a problem the car alerts you and/or safely pulls over and you can drive from there.

That's the convenience of keeping your own schedule in your own car, plus being able to kick back as if you were on a subway or a train or a bus, but without having to interact with smelly Other people. It's almost like having a chauffeur, but for an up-front cost instead of an on-going salary.
And likely, within 4 years, on well maintained roads, in good conditions, that capability will be available, in spite of what some here, feel.
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Old 01-06-20, 11:41 AM
  #191  
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Originally Posted by genec View Post
And likely, within 4 years, on well maintained roads, in good conditions, that capability will be available, in spite of what some here, feel.
Yeah, we'll easily have level 4 in 4 years. Tesla was at level 3 last year (2019):


Interesting comment at the end of that video: "everytime you get an update, these things just get slightly better." That video was posted July, 2019, so not sure if that car had Tesla's new super duper FSD chip.
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Old 01-06-20, 11:59 AM
  #192  
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Interesting. At about 4min, he passes a big truck towing another big truck, so cab facing backwards at him -- no confusion there whether maybe the truck was coming at him. Also about 8min, there is pretty extreme sun glare (which was IIRC the condition under which that one tesla plowed under/into a tractor-trailer pulling out)
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Old 01-06-20, 12:19 PM
  #193  
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Originally Posted by genec View Post
According to this December 9, 2019 article, the cars are monitored, but not 100% of the time...
Sounds like the way Uber test cars were part-time "monitored" by their personnel when one of them ran down the woman victim in AZ.
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Old 01-06-20, 12:23 PM
  #194  
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Originally Posted by genec View Post
You do realize that many human drivers are "geofenced" by their lack of driving skills... teen new drivers, drivers with certain cognitive handicaps and other handicaps, and the aged, who are barely abled to drive.

Then there those motorists that should be geofenced... the drunks and those with anger management issues.

Just keep in mind that not every car on the road is "level 5," regardless of who is or isn't "behind the wheel."
Any advantage for people with such handicaps using taxi's without a human driver? Or do you think many of these people are ready to buy for who knows how much $ a car with such limited capabilities
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Old 01-06-20, 12:25 PM
  #195  
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Originally Posted by RubeRad View Post
Seriously? There is HUGE demand for level 4! Type in your destination, kick back and read a book or surf your phone or take a nap, if there's ever a problem the car alerts you and/or safely pulls over and you can drive from there.
And move to Chandler, AZ too, eh? Any word on the "demand" and use for those Level 4 taxis in AZ if the users have to pay for the ride?
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Old 01-06-20, 12:30 PM
  #196  
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You should check out that Tesla Challenge video genec posted. That guy has a commute with 25mi of freeway, in MI. I'm sure he would love to be able to checkout from on-ramp to off-ramp (and his testing seems to be mostly successful (no intervention) and improving as Tesla adds updates).

Here's driving in a snow storm:

If you jump to about 15:30, you'll get to his assessment of F-, despite working well in the middle portion of the drive. I think it's probably fair to say this guy is a Tesla FanBoy, but he's not grading them on a curve.

Notice however, the failures were not safety failures, they were autopilot understanding that its sensors were compromised and refusing to turn on. i.e. the kind of failures we want, and I think acceptable for level 4 to happen like a few days per month.

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Old 01-06-20, 03:15 PM
  #197  
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Originally Posted by RubeRad View Post
Notice however, the failures were not safety failures, they were autopilot understanding that its sensors were compromised and refusing to turn on. i.e. the kind of failures we want, and I think acceptable for level 4 to happen like a few days per month.
Obviously the failure of the so-called autopilot system to detect traffic or the lanes while underway would have been catastrophic failures if there wasn't a human monitoring its actions 100% of the time. The comments on the YouTube site for this video are amusing , some of the fan boys think that the test results prove how the vehicle is just dandy if it finishes and on ramp to off ramp journey without crashing. That it still needs human intervention off the "test track" of a limited access highway, and wasn't even capable of operating on it without the driver intervening, due to its limitations in less than ideal visibility or obscured lane markings are "facts" they choose to ignore.

Presumably Waymo makes sure that its minions in Chandler keep road markings in tip top condition at all times on its selected test routes in its geo-fenced areas. No need to worry about snow in Chandler mucking up its test taxi service performance record.
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Old 01-06-20, 03:32 PM
  #198  
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One of the most used Chandler waymo routes is under 8 miles of construction with lane diversions, no painted lines, half removed lines, cones, cranes parked into road, etc and still I see several waymo vehicles daily on it.
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Old 01-06-20, 03:48 PM
  #199  
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike View Post
Obviously the failure of the so-called autopilot system to detect traffic or the lanes while underway would have been catastrophic failures if there wasn't a human monitoring its actions 100% of the time.
I don't think so, I think the human could have been reading a book, and responding and taking over when the system raised an alert. Or did you see the driver making any interventions without the system raising an alert?
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Old 01-06-20, 03:48 PM
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Originally Posted by noisebeam View Post
One of the most used Chandler waymo routes is under 8 miles of construction with lane diversions, no painted lines, half removed lines, cones, cranes parked into road, etc and still I see several waymo vehicles daily on it.
Who/how is the real-time performance of these few Waymo vehicles being monitored, controlled or evaluated? By an assistant driver, passengers, remotely though camera and radio oversight? Or do they just wander aimlessly within the Chandler geo-fence wherever the vehicles' software allow?
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