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Driverless cars today... where will they be in 5 years...

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Driverless cars today... where will they be in 5 years...

Old 01-06-20, 03:53 PM
  #201  
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Originally Posted by RubeRad View Post
Interesting. At about 4min, he passes a big truck towing another big truck, so cab facing backwards at him -- no confusion there whether maybe the truck was coming at him. Also about 8min, there is pretty extreme sun glare (which was IIRC the condition under which that one tesla plowed under/into a tractor-trailer pulling out)
Let's be clear about one thing... Tesla is NOT Waymo.

Tesla cars require a hands on driver, and tell you so when engaging their fancy cruise control.

Waymo is using actual autonomous vehicles in a controlled geofenced area, and collecting data on this.
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Old 01-06-20, 03:54 PM
  #202  
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Originally Posted by RubeRad View Post
I don't think so, I think the human could have been reading a book, and responding and taking over when the system raised an alert. Or did you see the driver making any interventions without the system raising an alert?
Sometimes depending on an alert is not enough to restore the system to proper functioning when system failure is imminent, leading the user to destruction; i.e. 737 Max.

I for one would not like to be riding down a highway reading a book when the system suddenly can no determine its whereabouts on the road or the proximity of any other vehicle. And an alert begins blaring for me to "do something!" right now or it's curtains for me.

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Old 01-06-20, 03:57 PM
  #203  
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike View Post
Sounds like the way Uber test cars were part-time "monitored" by their personnel when one of them ran down the woman victim in AZ.
Hardly... that car wasn't even in self drive mode, and the braking response time filters had been tweaked to be "less annoying."

But apparently, to you, all these situations are the same... so why try to give you any data at all, you aren't really paying attention... just whining.
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Old 01-06-20, 04:02 PM
  #204  
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Originally Posted by genec View Post
Let's be clear about one thing... Tesla is NOT Waymo.

Tesla cars require a hands on driver, and tell you so when engaging their fancy cruise control.

Waymo is using actual autonomous vehicles in a controlled geofenced area, and collecting data on this.
I agree, clearly some of the fan boys are not clear about this distinction nor other so-called "facts" related to driverless car progress beyond prototype testing, press releases, promises and wishful thinking
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Old 01-06-20, 04:07 PM
  #205  
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Originally Posted by genec View Post
Hardly... that car wasn't even in self drive mode, and the braking response time filters had been tweaked to be "less annoying."
Was that vehicle under the control of the driver or the software when it struck the woman? What/who had control of the steering wheel and brakes immediately prior to impact?

Answer: it was being controlled by the Uber software and the human alleged monitor was watching TV on his phone.
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Old 01-06-20, 05:08 PM
  #206  
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike View Post
Sometimes depending on an alert is not enough to restore the system to proper functioning when system failure is imminent, leading the user to destruction; i.e. 737 Max.

I for one would not like to be riding down a highway reading a book when the system suddenly can no determine its whereabouts on the road or the proximity of any other vehicle. And an alert begins blaring for me to "do something!" right now or it's curtains for me.
I'm sure you would not like that. What you like is To Bike.

But in that particular Tesla video (not in some other hypothetical situation we can all easily imagine) were there examples where human intervention was necessary, but an alert was not given, or the alert was given too late for the human to be able to react? (I'm asking seriously, because I only actually watched about half the video)

And do you have any way of knowing whether failure to respond to the alert would cause death, vs. the car safely pulling over to the side of the road and sitting there with its hazards on?
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Old 01-06-20, 05:09 PM
  #207  
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Originally Posted by genec View Post
Tesla cars require a hands on driver a water bottle taped to the steering wheel, and tell you so when engaging their fancy cruise control.
fify
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Old 01-06-20, 06:35 PM
  #208  
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike View Post
Was that vehicle under the control of the driver or the software when it struck the woman? What/who had control of the steering wheel and brakes immediately prior to impact?

Answer: it was being controlled by the Uber software and the human alleged monitor was watching TV on his phone.
How the NTSB evaluated the situation...

https://www.theverge.com/2019/11/20/...-error-results

The software was detuned, the testing environment was poorly established, and the ride along human as you noted, watching TV... and frankly the company did not give a sh*t.
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Old 01-06-20, 06:39 PM
  #209  
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Originally Posted by RubeRad View Post
fify
No, that is how people cheat their Teslas, and put their lives and the lives of others in danger. Teslas are at best level 3.5 systems, and drivers are told this... yet choose to ignore it... just like that guy in the car next to you is reading his text messages as he accelerates from the light... That people are doing that, doesn't make it right.
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Old 01-06-20, 06:45 PM
  #210  
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That's just a buzzy article. These are the NTSB findings. THe NTSBgroups their findings into 'probable cause' (driver inattention), 'contributing factors' (Uber's fault) and 'further factors contributing to the crash' ("the impaired pedestrian’s crossing of N. Mill Avenue outside a crosswalk", and insufficient AZ regulation)

Strangely the longer list of "Findings" puts things in a different order:
3. The pedestrian’s unsafe behavior in crossing the street in front of the approaching vehicle at night and at a location without a crosswalk violated Arizona statutes and was possibly due to diminished perception and judgment resulting from drug use.
4. The Uber Advanced Technologies Group did not adequately manage the anticipated safety risk of its automated driving system’s functional limitations, including the system’s inability in this crash to correctly classify and predict the path of the pedestrian crossing the road midblock
Also interesting:
The ADS detected the pedestrian 5.6 seconds before impact. Although the ADS continued to track the pedestrian until the crash, it never accurately classified her as a pedestrian or predicted her path. By the time the ADS determined that a collision was imminent, the situation exceeded the response specifications of the ADS braking system.
What that says to me is, the sensors were working, the AI for interpreting the sensor data needs improvement. (And I see no reason to believe it won't improve; indeed it has surely already improved)
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Old 01-06-20, 06:46 PM
  #211  
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Originally Posted by genec View Post
No, that is how people cheat their Teslas, and put their lives and the lives of others in danger. Teslas are at best level 3.5 systems, and drivers are told this... yet choose to ignore it... just like that guy in the car next to you is reading his text messages as he accelerates from the light... That people are doing that, doesn't make it right.
You said "Tesla cars require...". More accurate to say "Telsa lawyers require...", but the cars themselves don't care. Also the guy in that video notes that Tesla claims that autopilot offers entry-to-exit freeway automation, 'with no qualifiers' (at least as far as that customer perceived)
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Old 01-06-20, 09:15 PM
  #212  
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Originally Posted by RubeRad View Post
And do you have any way of knowing whether failure to respond to the alert would cause death, vs. the car safely pulling over to the side of the road and sitting there with its hazards on?
How do you "safely" pull over to the side of the road if you don't know where it is or other vehicles may be along side you when changing lanes?

And you wouldn't consider that riding in a vehicle that does that several times on a 25 mile trip a serious downer?
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Old 01-06-20, 09:21 PM
  #213  
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Originally Posted by RubeRad View Post
Also interesting:


What that says to me is, the sensors were working, the AI for interpreting the sensor data needs improvement. (And I see no reason to believe it won't improve; indeed it has surely already improved)
Yes the operation was successful ; too bad the patient died. Uber's safety record did improve, at least in AZ, they stopped testing there on public roads.
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Old 01-06-20, 09:26 PM
  #214  
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Originally Posted by genec View Post
How the NTSB evaluated the situation...

https://www.theverge.com/2019/11/20/...-error-results

The software was detuned, the testing environment was poorly established, and the ride along human as you noted, watching TV... and frankly the company did not give a sh*t.
You can add to the not giving a darn, the government officials in AZ who seem to not care about oversight of private companies using their streets as a test track for their prototypes.
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Old 01-07-20, 12:53 AM
  #215  
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Originally Posted by RubeRad View Post
You said "Tesla cars require...". More accurate to say "Telsa lawyers require...", but the cars themselves don't care. Also the guy in that video notes that Tesla claims that autopilot offers entry-to-exit freeway automation, 'with no qualifiers' (at least as far as that customer perceived)
Well, if you put it that way... heck my 1997 F150 is self driving... just put a brick on the gas pedal and away it goes.
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Old 01-07-20, 10:22 AM
  #216  
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike View Post
How do you "safely" pull over to the side of the road if you don't know where it is or other vehicles may be along side you when changing lanes?

And you wouldn't consider that riding in a vehicle that does that several times on a 25 mile trip a serious downer?
After 5 autopilot fail alerts, you shrug your shoulders and say "well I guess today I'm driving". Tomorrow after the roads are plowed and the snow is stopped, you can go back to your book.
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Old 01-07-20, 10:40 AM
  #217  
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Originally Posted by RubeRad View Post
After 5 autopilot fail alerts, you shrug your shoulders and say "well I guess today I'm driving". Tomorrow after the roads are plowed and the snow is stopped, you can go back to your book.
You assume that sudden autopilot failure in a so-called driverless car while its moving down the road will only be an annoyance for its former driver (and now just a passenger) and he can safely sleep, doze, be/get stoned, or get engrossed in a book while cruising along the highway, who if necessary will respond in a timely manner to any "alert" that wakes him from his slumber or distracts him from his book or the attentions of an affectionate co-passenger or whatever other activity his freedom from driving allows. The dozy passenger after being "alerted" no doubt will save the day from his out of control car. Un-darn-believable!

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Old 01-07-20, 11:14 AM
  #218  
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Originally Posted by genec View Post
Well, if you put it that way... heck my 1997 F150 is self driving... just put a brick on the gas pedal and away it goes.
Probably was those pesky lawyers that kept Ford from calling this self driving procedure "Autopilot" back in 1997. Tales a "visionary" like Elon Musk and clueless acolytes to describe and tout a high tech version of the same limited system as self driving "Autopilot" today.
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Old 01-07-20, 11:22 AM
  #219  
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike View Post
Probably was those pesky lawyers that kept Ford from calling this self driving procedure "Autopilot" back in 1997. Tales a "visionary" like Elon Musk and clueless acolytes to describe and tout a high tech version of the same limited system as self driving "Autopilot" today.
Tesla's current self-driving capability is very analogous to aircraft autopilot. Aircraft autopilot flies the plane for non critical segments, Tesla autopilot drives the car for non critical segments. But the Tesla autopilot is much more sophisticated, much smarter, and is performing a more challenging task than an aircraft autopilot.
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Old 01-07-20, 11:26 AM
  #220  
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike View Post
You assume that sudden autopilot failure in a so-called driverless car while its moving down the road will only be an annoyance for its former driver (and now just a passenger) and he can safely sleep, doze, be/get stoned, or get engrossed in a book while cruising along the highway, who if necessary will respond in a timely manner to any "alert" that wakes him from his slumber or distracts him from his book or the attentions of an affectionate co-passenger or whatever other activity his freedom from driving allows. The dozy passenger after being "alerted" no doubt will save the day from his out of control car. Un-darn-believable!
Now? No. Drivers cannot sleep, they need to be paying attention to be able to override the autopilot because the autopilot is not done yet.

But after X millions of miles in sufficiently diverse conditions, years of more progress on autopilot and sensor capabilities, regulatory oversight, and scientific proof that the failure rate is sufficiently low, and failure behavior is sufficiently reliable, and projected fatality rate (passengers and pedestrians) is sufficiently lower than current fatality rates due to human driving, THEN you can go to sleep or get a hummer or whatever.

And before you say what you have already said a bajillion times in this thread, let me just ask you. Hey I-Like-To-Bike, do you think we will ever get there? I'm dying to learn about whether you are optimistic or pessimistic about this whole enterprise. Please tell me something you haven't told me before.
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Old 01-07-20, 03:21 PM
  #221  
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Originally Posted by RubeRad View Post
Now? No. Drivers cannot sleep, they need to be paying attention to be able to override the autopilot because the autopilot is not done yet.

But after X millions of miles in sufficiently diverse conditions, years of more progress on autopilot and sensor capabilities, regulatory oversight, and scientific proof that the failure rate is sufficiently low, and failure behavior is sufficiently reliable, and projected fatality rate (passengers and pedestrians) is sufficiently lower than current fatality rates due to human driving, THEN you can go to sleep or get a hummer or whatever.

And before you say what you have already said a bajillion times in this thread, let me just ask you. Hey I-Like-To-Bike, do you think we will ever get there? I'm dying to learn about whether you are optimistic or pessimistic about this whole enterprise. Please tell me something you haven't told me before.
I can agree with you that when real honest-to gosh self driving driverfree cars that really are self driving driverfree are ready to be manufactured and sold to customers who can use them for something more than trips in a severely restricted geo-zone, that really are capable of safely transporting its passengers (and not just PR hype and guesswork, or a renamed cruise control vehicle) then at that time "we will be there."

There is no evidence available that the billions spent on testing by the "enterprise" is close to producing reliable and practical autopilot and sensor capabilities, sufficiently reliable failure behavior, or sufficiently lower projected fatality rate(i.e. legitimate projections not made by biased promoters' PR people and fund raisers.) The date that you or any of the people who are expected to buy these vehicle can go to sleep or get a hummer while being safely transported from beginning to end of the trips that cars are currently being driven by human drivers for cannot be predicted on anything beyond WAG'ing. Which it seems is that the fan-boys are the only ones making any predictions anymore. Read today's newsletter from Fortune magazine at Waymo Is Still an Expensive Science Project in Search of a Business

Note that John Krafcik, CEO of Alphabet’s self-driving car project, Waymo ("Mr. Waymo") still isn't projecting any dates for a real deal motor vehicle to sell or produce. Nor provides any information about the Waymo operation other than the number of miles driven and a few platitudes about where he thinks Waymo might like to get a return on Alphabet/Google's billions of dollars investment.

Extract from the writer of the newsletter:
"This is all fun and exciting and interesting. Self-driving cars haven’t yet lived up to their hype. The technology is costly. The tests have only been conducted in fair-weather cities. Regulators move more slowly than robots. After Krafcik left the stage, the chatter in the room was about whether new Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai and his chief financial officer, Ruth Porat, will force Waymo to begin earning back its investment sooner rather than later."
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Old 01-07-20, 03:32 PM
  #222  
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Interesting article. Here's another quote:

Krafcik recently gave the impression that trucking could make a better short-term opportunity than ferrying human passengers. He didn’t exactly disavow that assertion Monday, though he said ride-hailing should be a bigger market by 2030. That’s a long way off.


And that article links to another interesting article:

autonomous vehicles may take hold first in more mundane driverless delivery trucks that travel easily repeatable routes, he said.

“Where uses are strictly commercial and where we have very high confidence of delivering the outcomes that our commercial business partners would desire, we could have a much quicker ramp,“ Krafcik said. “So it could be that although we’re starting with” robotaxis “that a truck product could catch on faster.”

... The move is part of an effort to tap the brakes on the hype surrounding autonomy. General Motors Co. also delayed the roll out of its robotaxi service, while Ford Motor Co.’s CEO said earlier this year that the industry overestimated the arrival of self-driving cars.

Krafcik’s suggestion that driverless trucks may arrive faster than robot ride-hailing is another example of the technology taking longer than once thought.

“It is an extremely challenging thing to do, there’s no doubt,” said Krafcik, who declined to say when Waymo’s robotaxis will be ready for the mass market. “I do share your sense of uncertainty, even in my role. I don’t know precisely when everything is going to be ready, but I know I am supremely confident that it will be.”
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Old 01-09-20, 02:33 AM
  #223  
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New cheaper, soon to be ubiquitous LIDAR sensors may be the key...

All the LIDAR companies are trumpeting the same message: better resolution, wider FoV, longer range, more precision, and cheaper, cheaper, cheaper. If LIDAR is supposedly a crucial component in how self-driving cars perceive the world, then the LIDAR companies want the traditional automakers to see this potential, too.

The chances are high that they will succeed in this quest. Advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) are becoming more commonplace in mass-market vehicles. Most of these systems rely on cameras and radar to power features like automatic emergency braking, blind spot detection, and lane-keep assistance. Sometimes they work really well, helping prevent a wide variety of crashes and taking some of the tedium out of driving. Other times they can be dangerous and even deadly.

LIDAR has the potential to make these systems safer, said Velodyne’s Gopalan. “If there’s bright sunlight or if it’s really dark at night, some of these [camera-based] features are not reliable and not available all the time,” he said. “Adding a LIDAR will make two features much more reliable and much more readily available.”
https://www.theverge.com/platform/am...odyne-ces-2020

Apparently Musk doesn't believe in the use of LIDAR, in spite of the fact that it adds a whole new form of "vision" to car sensors. Couple LIDAR with RADAR and IR and cars can see things humans cannot... such as a deer in the woods at the edge of the road, in the dark.

LIDAR just became amazingly cheap, and easy to deploy... expect these new systems to allow rapid new advances in car collision avoidance systems, and eventually autonomous vehicles.
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Old 01-09-20, 10:31 AM
  #224  
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That link says "even deadly,", but the article behind it says

No one was injured...The Tesla was traveling in the HOV lane behind another vehicle, but when that vehicle changed lanes to the right, the Tesla accelerated and struck the rear of the fire truck at a recorded speed of about 31 mph. Autopilot had been engaged for a total of 29 minutes and four seconds prior to the crash, but the driver’s hands were only detected on the steering wheel for 78 seconds of that time. Autopilot issued “several” hands-off alerts during the last 13 minutes before the crash. “For most of the time the system was engaged, it did not detect driver-applied steering wheel torque (hands on the steering wheel),” NTSB states.In a statement, a Tesla spokesperson notes that while Autopilot will turn off when a driver repeatedly ignores warnings to remain engaged with the driving, the automaker is continuing to roll out updates to make its advanced driver assist system “smarter, safer and more effective.”

Since this incident occurred,” the spokesperson added, “we have made updates to our system including adjusting the time intervals between hands-on warnings and the conditions under which they’re activated.
Seems like autopilot did not actually turn off after repeated warnings in this case. Also, what is it supposed to do, just coast to a stop in its lane and wait to get rear-ended?

BUT an important point to this story is that, due to what was learned from this incident, all Teslas were very quickly improved with a software update delivered wirelessly; no need for lengthy and expensive recall process.

And that's a plus and a minus. When software changes are good, the easier it is to quickly deploy them the better. But when software changes are bad (because of inevitable bugs, or someday malicious interference) the problem is immediately large-scale
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Old 01-09-20, 10:51 AM
  #225  
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Originally Posted by genec View Post
New cheaper, soon to be ubiquitous LIDAR sensors may be the key...

... expect these new systems to allow rapid new advances in car collision avoidance systems, and eventually autonomous vehicles.
The same qualifiers that precedes (or should) precede the various predictions for when the progression from prototype testing in restricted envionments will lead to successful fielding of autonomous Driverfree vehicle business available for the public to buy and/or safely use.
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