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It is a good time to buy shares

Old 04-02-20, 09:23 PM
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It is a good time to buy shares

Warning: 96% of people who trade in shares, lose money. So if you are a person who does not know what you are doing, don't throw away your money.

For people who are good at share trading, there are a lot of good buying opportunities right now. Don't buy shares in any companies which are likely to lose money during this crisis. Only buy shares in good solid companies which should still be around for the next 50 years. They are cheap now. Just hold on to them until the price goes up.
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Old 04-03-20, 02:39 AM
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Nobody knows what the market will do, but I look to 9-11 and the housing crisis for a window into what might happen. In both cases, the market took an up and down ride to the real bottom, which did not come in either case until about two years after we realized we were in trouble. We are only weeks into understanding that we are in big trouble here. There are millions filing for unemployment every week, far beyond anything we have ever seen. There is grave doubt that most small businesses can survive the down time, and consumer confidence is shot, too. We are giving people money just to try to hold things together for a while, but we have no realistic method to turn things around quickly. Companies have not even begun to report earnings affected by this downturn, and they have stopped giving guidance about future earnings. There is no sound basis for valuing companies at this point.

It's still up in the air how bad the illness will be, though it's pretty bad already. But, it's not too early to say the economic impact will be epic. Depression is not too strong a word to describe the impact. It's fair to say the impact will be worse than 9-11 or the housing crisis, and both of those took a couple years to get to the bottom, and took us down nearly half way from the top. We're not nearly half way down yet, people have just begun to understand the economic fallout, and this could be worse, so we could fall further this time. If you buy in now, you may wish you had waited another year or so.

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Old 04-03-20, 10:44 AM
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I picked up some shares in companies that make ti handlebars.
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Old 04-03-20, 10:54 AM
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Wow. If anyone wanted to see what a "moral vacuum" looked like...
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Old 04-03-20, 02:00 PM
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Originally Posted by ridelikeaturtle View Post
Wow. If anyone wanted to see what a "moral vacuum" looked like...
Don't see why. Its a legitimate conversation to state that if you've been looking to step in or step up what you have then now is the time. I've now lost 10% of my initial investment which sets me back a number of years. and I'd like to retire in 20 years. Thankfully I took out a loan against one of my biggest investments that I ended up not using most of and I'm now sitting on a significant chunk of change that I realized over a month ago would be stupid to put back and I'm now waiting for just the right moment. I suspect that June might be a good time and when I do that it'll see to it that I'm nicely situated for the next few years to come. It sucks right now for a lot of people right now but it doesn't mean it isn't a situation that can make your future better.
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Old 04-03-20, 02:17 PM
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Originally Posted by ridelikeaturtle View Post
Wow. If anyone wanted to see what a "moral vacuum" looked like...
For those of us without government pensions waiting, planning for one's financial future must be done. Considering that U.S. Social Security will pay me maybe 1/5th what I make now, which is basically a path to being homeless here.

I just hope I don't have to spend too much of what I've been saving just to pay the bills due to the economic shut down.
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Old 04-03-20, 02:18 PM
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Originally Posted by Russ Roth View Post
Don't see why.
No, it would be "un-American" to see why. That is not a compliment.
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Old 04-03-20, 03:58 PM
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Originally Posted by FiftySix View Post
For those of us without government pensions waiting, planning for one's financial future must be done. Considering that U.S. Social Security will pay me maybe 1/5th what I make now, which is basically a path to being homeless here.

I just hope I don't have to spend too much of what I've been saving just to pay the bills due to the economic shut down.
Ditto that. Just because you try to buy low and sell high doesn't mean you don't have any feelings for other people that got burnt. I bought at the very bottom of the real estate crash, and I'll try to find the bottom of this stock market if I can. If you don't have much, and the government won't provide for you, then you do the best you can with what little you've got. My social security won't be much, and I need everything I can get out of my own savings to retire without acquiring a taste for cat food.
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Old 04-03-20, 04:18 PM
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As I said, it is not a game for those who don't know what they are doing. 96% of people lose money.

The big players are buying and selling a lot of shares now. They are definitely selling any companies which may go bust. If I had shares in cruise ship companies, or airlines, I definitely have sold them already. Think about what other companies will be hit badly in the current situation, and sell.

The prices are down a long way. If you buy shares in companies which should come out the other side of the economic downturn in good shape, you can make money. You need to be in a financial situation where you can hold them for a long time.

Even the smart players win some and lose some. Not every investment makes money. If you make more than you lose, you are doing well.
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Old 04-03-20, 04:22 PM
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Originally Posted by chewybrian View Post
Ditto that. Just because you try to buy low and sell high doesn't mean you don't have any feelings for other people that got burnt.
In the very near future, I hope US citizens can envision not-at-all-radical ideas such as universal health care, a universal living wage, a universal basic income, the elimination of the concept of "low-skilled workers" - yeah, those people that stock your shelves and provide your bread and milk when you're on "lockdown" and restricted travel, *they are essential!* - along with the elimination of billionaires, and fair taxation.

Food for thought.
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Old 04-03-20, 04:42 PM
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Originally Posted by ridelikeaturtle View Post
In the very near future, I hope US citizens can envision not-at-all-radical ideas such as universal health care, a universal living wage, a universal basic income, the elimination of the concept of "low-skilled workers" - yeah, those people that stock your shelves and provide your bread and milk when you're on "lockdown" and restricted travel, *they are essential!* - along with the elimination of billionaires, and fair taxation.

Food for thought.
Not that it matters, but I'm a machine repairman that wears navy blue button up shirts, Wrangler blue jeans, and work boots. I started off as a low skill worker long ago. The four in my household haven't had health insurance since November 2016 due to premiums and deductibles being out of reach thanks to the ACA changing who gets insurance here. We were once the "haves" and now we are the "have nots" when it comes to health insurance.

So, we save up to pay medical care with cash. After a healthy time allows us to accumulate a set budget amount, the extra goes to planning for the future. As long as none of us go to the hospital, we should be okay financially.

Due to current pandemic, my wife is pulling in a total 5 work hours a week, my stepson living here is pulling 0 work hours per week, and my daughter is a full time college student living here not contributing to the household income anyway. My other two stepkids living away from home are luckily employed in essential workplaces.

My employer has applied for the U.S. SBA paycheck protection program to try and keep me and others on board until work picks up again. Until that gets funded, my pay will be taking a hit.

Which goes back to my previous post of me not wanting to dip into my savings to pay the bills. I'd rather that savings go into my retirement planning, and if my workload picks up soon enough, I'll be investing what I can while the market is low.

As Ripley said, believe it or not.

Last edited by FiftySix; 04-03-20 at 05:20 PM. Reason: dyslexia kicking in again
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Old 04-03-20, 05:50 PM
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Originally Posted by ridelikeaturtle View Post
In the very near future, I hope US citizens can envision not-at-all-radical ideas such as universal health care, a universal living wage, a universal basic income, the elimination of the concept of "low-skilled workers" - yeah, those people that stock your shelves and provide your bread and milk when you're on "lockdown" and restricted travel, *they are essential!* - along with the elimination of billionaires, and fair taxation.

Food for thought.
I actually agree with much of what you say, though you are about to get this bumped to p+r. All I am saying is you can't assume anything about someone just because they are playing the market. I'm just one of those 'essential' peons who is trying to make the best of things according to the rules of the game here in the states. I would write different rules if I could, but I am not the dungeon master, just an ogre with a battle hammer, +5 intelligence and -10 charisma.
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Old 04-03-20, 07:59 PM
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Warren Buffet said the Great Depression was great for stock traders, like his parent.
It was easy money for those who know what they are doing. It is looking like we are heading toward Great Depression 2.0, imo.

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Old 04-03-20, 08:44 PM
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I used to work with a guy who'd start stressing whenever the market was down. The more days in a row it was down, the worse he got. Finally couldn't take it any more and he'd sell. The next day, he'd be walking with a spring in his step because he wasn't losing any more money.

Don't be that guy.
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Old 04-03-20, 08:58 PM
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Originally Posted by ridelikeaturtle View Post
In the very near future, I hope US citizens can envision not-at-all-radical ideas such as universal health care, a universal living wage, a universal basic income, the elimination of the concept of "low-skilled workers" - yeah, those people that stock your shelves and provide your bread and milk when you're on "lockdown" and restricted travel, *they are essential!* - along with the elimination of billionaires, and fair taxation.
Food for thought.
Won't get an argument from me on any of this, I'm a minister and I preach these as something that the foundation of my religion espoused. Those aren't always the most liked messages but equality, dignity and care of the whole of the community is a worthy cause along with recognizing what is meant by community.

Originally Posted by ridelikeaturtle View Post
No, it would be "un-American" to see why. That is not a compliment.
You still haven't explained why planning to take advantage of the current market is such an issue for you and a moral vacuum. I have money I give, I have money I live on and I have money I save so I can retire with dignity and the hope for more. On an annual basis I give away well over 10% of my income, which isn't very much and below the local median. If I want to take another 10% of it and do something to safeguard my future what right and sense of entitlement do you have to go condemning me or anyone else for it? Knowing how to make wise use of my money and doing so is just being smart.
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Old 04-03-20, 09:14 PM
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Only down 14% in total...& that's only because of the retirement account I can't add more to.
For the brokerage account I doubled down on the worst day. Then another 50% more on the second worst day. On my brokerage account I'm already even.

Waiting for that "depression" the crystal-ball talking heads keep talking about. The only danger I really see is being out of money when "the bottom" actually happens.

Dunno what the fuss is about. The dividends & long term appreciation is what you are buying. Buy now while there is a sale on.

Today's stock price is a meaningless number unless you are a trader (parasite, see also: money loser), any gain or loss isn't even real until sold.

Nobody wants to hear their beloved nest egg is fantasy. The poor fools don't even understand what game it is they are in.

I've been on a leave of absence for a month now. I might go back to work just for the severence/seperation package & dump that money in the market as well.

Enjoying life so far & times are good as far as I can see.

How & why people are running their lives in such a way they need a paycheck to be viable is beyond me. Spending is an addiction. This supposed "downturn" is going to be a reality check for A LOT of people & their financial house of cards up & down the economic spectrum.

Own what you own. Be happy with it & define happiness at a level of income being less than what you take in. Things are great & getting better all the time.

Last edited by base2; 04-03-20 at 10:28 PM.
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Old 04-03-20, 09:56 PM
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Part 2:
I'm only 42, haven't been to work in 6 weeks (by choice) & live in one of the most expensive areas of the country. With a mortgage & only person in the household employed.

Yet 10 pounds of yellow onions is still $4.49. Add in salt, pepper, cooking sherry a touch of vinegar, bread & cheese. You can feed a family of 3 a hearty french onion soup for under a buck a head with enough left over for everyone to have seconds.

50 pounds of all porpose flour is still $15. Any one care to guess how many biscuits, pancakes, waffles, dinner rolls that $15 will make? (It's a lot)

5 dozen eggs is still $8.99. That's 30 breakfast omelettes worth of eggs for less than $9

A 14 ounce package of Pad Thai medium rice noodles are $1.14. Add in a chicken thigh or some tofu & some spices. Dinner for a family of 3, with enough to have left overs still comes to under a dollar per.

A can of tomato sauce, tomato paste, a few mushrooms & ground turkey & spices for spaghetti sauce & a large handful of spaghetti noodles still comes to less than $1.50 a head...& that's if you splurge on the ground turkey.

Froot Loops are still only $0.12 per ounce.

Oats are still $19 per 50 pounds

Bologna is still $0.081 per ounce if you insist on meat sandwiches. All the same, I still prefer a good PB&J to bologna anyhow.

Salad is still next to free.

Laundry detergent can be had for $0.02 per load.

100 miles travel in my used car is $2.40

We use 100 cubic feet of water per person/month. Yes, that's less than 25 gallons per person, per day.

Winter electric (including heat & car (we have no natural gas, propane or heating oil)) is less than 15,000 kilowatt hours/month.

This tripe about tough economic times or grocery prices & shortages & the poor unwashed masses is rubbish. What we have is a systemic failure of institutional knowledge regarding basic cooking & life skills. I blame school funding for home economics class & basic consumer culture.

Hint, hint: There is a difference between heating factory "food" at home & "cooking" food at home.

At $300 a month of grocery expenditure for a family of 3, We have so much extra food & surplus of means it's beyond ridiculous.

So, yeah...Imma double down on this "times are great" & "as good as they have ever been" shtick. $20k a year/person plus a mortgage in one of the most expensive areas of the country is more than plenty if your eyes & priorities are calibrated right.

Bicycles & food! But I digress...

Now is a great time to buy the market if you can. Run your life so that you have surplus to buy the market with. Anyone *could* do it at any income level if they made the proper choices.

Last edited by base2; 04-10-20 at 02:32 PM.
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Old 04-04-20, 08:29 AM
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An oldie, but prescient. I always thought it would be more applicable to climate change (and it still might be...), but it also fits the current COVID19 catastrophe and attitudes to it.

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Old 04-04-20, 10:13 AM
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Dollar cost Average into S&P 500. Then in a few months, dollar cost average into Russel 2000
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Old 04-04-20, 11:16 AM
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Originally Posted by ridelikeaturtle View Post
In the very near future, I hope US citizens can envision not-at-all-radical ideas such as universal health care, a universal living wage, a universal basic income, the elimination of the concept of "low-skilled workers" - yeah, those people that stock your shelves and provide your bread and milk when you're on "lockdown" and restricted travel, *they are essential!* - along with the elimination of billionaires, and fair taxation.
If you think our current situation with Covid-19 is going to create some divine paradigm shift I think you are quite wrong (although I don't fault you for maintaining hope). All we are going to learn from this experience is that next time we will have a better understanding of what to expect and how people will react. There may be a few bonuses handed out and a couple of Unions demanding the insertion of some sort of "Hazard Pay" clause in their contracts, but that will be it.
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Old 04-04-20, 08:32 PM
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No one can consistently beat the market, not even the "experts". That's why prudent investors don't bother trying.

Buy and hold low expense ratio index funds. Only sell when you need some cash. Let the traders expend their effort, time, and worst of all their worries, on beating the market.

https://jlcollinsnh.com/stock-series/. < even the "Big Ugly Event" (market crash) is covered here.
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Old 04-04-20, 08:48 PM
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This thread makes me glad I’m the weird guy that lives in the Twilight Zone But I’m good at fixing bicycles
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Old 04-07-20, 05:10 PM
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They don't want us to share right now. I miss flirting with cute old ladies and their little dogs.
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