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Big oil is silent

Old 08-13-21, 02:46 PM
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Big oil is silent

Why is big oil silent on the relentless pursuit of all electric vehicles>
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Old 08-13-21, 03:05 PM
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I don’t know.
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Old 08-13-21, 03:10 PM
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Originally Posted by coffeesnob View Post
Why is big oil silent on the relentless pursuit of all electric vehicles>
Working for Schlumberger I can say that until elecrical vehicles has acres of charging every 100 miles on every interstate, state highway, and Farm to Market roadway to charge said 100-million electric cars, there really is nothing to say.
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Old 08-13-21, 03:17 PM
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I wonder what percentage of their product is used in cars and trucks compared with powering aircraft, trains, ships, and being used in manufacturing...and probably other applications I don't know about.

I don't have any answers; just "thinking out loud"...
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Old 08-13-21, 06:47 PM
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Originally Posted by Squeeze View Post
I wonder what percentage of their product is used in cars and trucks compared with powering aircraft, trains, ships, and being used in manufacturing...and probably other applications I don't know about.

I don't have any answers; just "thinking out loud"...
Kind of makes you wonder why they are only focusing on cars. Greed plays a huge role, I'm guessing.
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Old 08-13-21, 07:02 PM
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Some countries and companies understand they are in the energy business, and have diversified. They don't need to make noise. Others understand there will be demand for petroleum products virtually forever, even if volumes decrease - there will always be money in oil.

Finally, don't mistake public silence for inaction. Just pay attention to any discussion about alternate forms of energy; the deniers, attackers, and naysayers come out in force. Money is being spent fueling that perspective. There is a narrative out there that internal combustion engines are manly, patriotic, and expressions of freedom. Where does that come from?
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Old 08-13-21, 07:26 PM
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The energy used to make electric cars makes them more energy expensive than ICE cars. That would be a nice bonus for oil companies if electric cars ever become more than fashionable toys for 1% of drivers.

As the world's oilfields are depleted, the remaining oil becomes more expensive to extract, until finally the cost is more than the value and the petroleum industry is finished.
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Old 08-13-21, 07:29 PM
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Old 08-13-21, 07:34 PM
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Because even if 50% of all vehicles sold are electric by 2030 and all countries stick with their emission reduction plans oil consumption is predicted to continue to grow and not peak until at least the mid 2030s and not fall off all that rapidly, mainly due to (1) higher demand for air travel (2) higher GDP in 3rd world countries resulting in higher energy intensity and (3) world population growing to 9 billion by 2040.
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Old 08-13-21, 08:08 PM
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Originally Posted by billridesbikes View Post
Because even if 50% of all vehicles sold are electric by 2030 and all countries stick with their emission reduction plans oil consumption is predicted to continue to grow and not peak until at least the mid 2030s and not fall off all that rapidly, mainly due to (1) higher demand for air travel (2) higher GDP in 3rd world countries resulting in higher energy intensity and (3) world population growing to 9 billion by 2040.
Peak oil production was roughly 2005. The world can't use more than the supply.
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Old 08-14-21, 05:44 AM
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Originally Posted by Zedoo View Post
Peak oil production was roughly 2005. The world can't use more than the supply.
LOL - No worldwide oil production from all sources including tar sands and fracking has steadily increased since 2005. Even 2020 was higher than 2005, and will resume increasing as economic activity picks up.
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Old 08-14-21, 06:07 AM
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Because they are good with math.
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Old 08-14-21, 08:10 AM
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Originally Posted by billridesbikes View Post
LOL - No worldwide oil production from all sources including tar sands and fracking has steadily increased since 2005. Even 2020 was higher than 2005, and will resume increasing as economic activity picks up.
Fracking and tar sands use more energy. Counting that oil is counting some oil twice. Fracking is old technology that was left unused until there was no cheap and easy oil left. Fracking and tar sands also use tremendous quantities of water, which remains polluted long after the oil is burned. Fracking was never profitable, but investors didn't bother doing the math before investing. Now they are pulling out. That's the end of fracking.
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Old 08-14-21, 08:54 AM
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Because "big oil" correctly identifies itself as "big energy." Oil is just cheap energy when you pencil out all the externalized & "social costs." All the "oil" companies are diversifing. Solar becomes more economical at around $100 per barrel or so. IIRC we reached the crossover point between 2012 & 2016 or so depending on study methods & metrics. [Please offer correction with current data.] Wind, tidal, & other sources each have their own cross over point in reference to carbon.

The point is: When taken in total, the total cost of ownership of a consumer electric vehicle is between ⅓ & ⅕ that of a similar petrolium powered vehicle & ongoing operating costs are around 1/10 or less. Consumers, voters, anyone concerned about budgetary constraints & local energy utilities are driving a shift away from carbon derived energy. They have to if they are to continue to be economically viable. It would be stupid for the oil companies to let this go unnoticed or un-adapted to.

For industrial & consumer uses, Natural Gas seems to have been skipped over & widely recognized as a half-way measure that is simply not worth the cost no matter how cheaply in can be obtained. Defunct Natural Gas company Chesapeak Energy CEO reportedly remarked his company went bankrupt because he couldn't even give CNG away. If that doesn't tell you the state of the market, I don't know what will. I remember once seeing a Canadian licensed passenger van at a local gas station trying for a refill. Between the vehicle owner & the station attendent...It was just a lot of hassle. Though, having driven many a CNG powered fleet vehicle, they drive the same as gasoline & are a perfectly acceptable substitute in actual use. But, they still have all the cost, complexity, & conventional failure points as their gasoline/diesel counterparts.

Yeah, CNG can be used for forklifts, regional trucking, & bread ovens, but the cost of infrastructure hook-up & re-construction or remodel just doesn't pencil out unless it was plumbed in when the factory was first built "x" number of decades ago. Solar panel efficiency gains & the prospect of off-site tax-payer owned durably battery technology is simply more pallatable & the technology is well mature at this point.

The neighboring city & seat of the county government has banned Natural Gas installation on all new construction altogether. It went virtually unopposed & [edit: I was wrong] infact was spurned by the local utility's request, [/meWrong] IIRC. https://kuow.org/stories/seattle-ban...-new-buildings

Electric is just simpler and more reliable at every level. Every gas station I've ever been to has a ready supply of electricity already plumbed in. DinoCo branded chargers at every corner "gas" station is inevitable. DinoCo owned wind turbines & solar panels supplying the local utility is inevitable.

Indeed my local utility already has zero carbon derived energy. (Other than incidentally supplied) It's a non-event & most people even the die-hard-petrol-forever-diesel-coal-rollers aren't even aware of this fact. https://www.snopud.com/PowerSupply.ashx?p=1105

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Old 08-14-21, 09:02 AM
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What's going to be the big thing is wind and solar deconstructing H2O into H2 for fuel in my mind.

H2 is a great way to store energy from intermittent sources.
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Old 08-14-21, 11:05 AM
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Cuz they have their oars firmly in those waters too.
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Old 08-15-21, 07:02 AM
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Originally Posted by GhostRider62 View Post
Because they are good with math.



Perhaps because the 12-odd billion cars on the planet need gas. Big oil did the math, and as long as electric cars tether their owners to 400-500 mile maximum distances, the greatest portion of those 12-billion vehicles will never opt for electric.


In an urban setting with a garage charger, then by all means an electric motorcycle, scooter, or 4-seater vehicle is hard to argue against. Still, the replacement battery cost for that Telsa Model S is gonna run you $12-15 thousand dollars, but not until 8-years or 150,000 miles. So you have had that Telsa for 7-years you decide to sell it. If your average mileage per year is 20,000 miles, the buyer will have to purchase a battery band in the near future, at the cost of $12,000 - $15,000 dollars.


I have a 18-year old Ford Focus with 195,000 miles and all four cylinders are 185 psi give or take 7-psi. This Zetec 2.0 Liter DOHC is good for another 100,000 miles.


One other point is that today, I can put down $2,500.00 and get a very reliable vehicle that gets 30 mpg. I can then drive from Texas to Alaska. No electric vehicle that I am aware of can do that. It comes down to freedom, and those batteries might last carry their own carbon footprint.


So, currently electric vehicles are about 3-5% of the worldwide total vehicles, lots of scooters in that total, so the 2-4 seater vehicles are probably 2 %, the other 98% need gas, which comes from oil/corn.
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Old 08-15-21, 07:14 AM
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Originally Posted by base2 View Post
.Electric is just simpler and more reliable at every level. Every gas station I've ever been to has a ready supply of electricity already plumbed in. DinoCo branded chargers at every corner "gas" station is inevitable. DinoCo owned wind turbines & solar panels supplying the local utility is inevitable.
One wonders why a low drag airfoil concept cannot be adopted to turbo-charge the batteries in electric vehicles. It would only work at highway speeds, and the return on investment with a vehicle with a 200-mile radius of travel on a route without a charging station availability is probably snubbing the R&D efforts on that front.

By the Way the 1920 Jones Act is the reason that the Port of Valdez does not have foreign oil tankers lined up to make the USA the number 1 exporter of oil in the world. We get 50% of the oil we use from Canada.
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Old 08-15-21, 07:27 AM
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Originally Posted by JAG1 View Post
Perhaps because the 12-odd billion cars on the planet need gas. Big oil did the math, and as long as electric cars tether their owners to 400-500 mile maximum distances, the greatest portion of those 12-billion vehicles will never opt for electric.


In an urban setting with a garage charger, then by all means an electric motorcycle, scooter, or 4-seater vehicle is hard to argue against. Still, the replacement battery cost for that Telsa Model S is gonna run you $12-15 thousand dollars, but not until 8-years or 150,000 miles. So you have had that Telsa for 7-years you decide to sell it. If your average mileage per year is 20,000 miles, the buyer will have to purchase a battery band in the near future, at the cost of $12,000 - $15,000 dollars.


I have a 18-year old Ford Focus with 195,000 miles and all four cylinders are 185 psi give or take 7-psi. This Zetec 2.0 Liter DOHC is good for another 100,000 miles.


One other point is that today, I can put down $2,500.00 and get a very reliable vehicle that gets 30 mpg. I can then drive from Texas to Alaska. No electric vehicle that I am aware of can do that. It comes down to freedom, and those batteries might last carry their own carbon footprint.


So, currently electric vehicles are about 3-5% of the worldwide total vehicles, lots of scooters in that total, so the 2-4 seater vehicles are probably 2 %, the other 98% need gas, which comes from oil/corn.
^ This.

I want EVs to work. They just dont for our family.

Every EV owner I know has another car. Powered by gas or diesel. So how does having an extra car work out for finances and carbon footprint?
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Old 08-15-21, 08:28 AM
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Every time you drive your car or use any other form of fossil fuel energy/product...you're being silent. I would like to get off fossil fuels, but it ain't easy, you could even say it's impossible. I'm having a hard time just reducing my use of single-use plastics -- awful stuff for the environment.


.
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Old 08-15-21, 08:43 AM
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Originally Posted by JAG1 View Post
One wonders why a low drag airfoil concept cannot be adopted to turbo-charge the batteries in electric vehicles. It would only work at highway speeds, and the return on investment with a vehicle with a 200-mile radius of travel on a route without a charging station availability is probably snubbing the R&D efforts on that front.
Because perpetual motion isn't a thing. Just like how a hub dynamo isn't free energy. It takes an additional 3 watts + miscellaneous losses from your legs to get 3 watts to power your lights.

The best they have come up with is regenerative braking. (Which all e-cars seem to have, apparently.) It takes the energy spent during acceleration that now resides in the vehicle as potential energy (the vehicle in motion,) & recovers it back into the battery by using the brakes as generators. At best recovery hovers around 50% when you add up all the losses. The inverter being the biggest culprit. But it does work & is really convenient for single pedal driving. Most people with EV's only need the brake pedal between 10 & 0 miles per hour.
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Old 08-15-21, 09:09 AM
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Originally Posted by SkinGriz View Post
^ This.

I want EVs to work. They just dont for our family.

Every EV owner I know has another car. Powered by gas or diesel. So how does having an extra car work out for finances and carbon footprint?
I took $40/week x 4 weeks/mo = $160/mo gasoline expenditure of my Prius & converted it to $15 in electricity expense with a used Nissan Leaf.

I still took the Prius to Wyoming, Montana, Idaho, Oregon this summer.

The Prius itself in 100,000 miles has cost ~$24,000 dollars in petrol. An $8000 savings over the Ford Focus that I was considering when looking at new vehicles.

In terms of raw math, discounting practicalities of cross-country road trips that no one really does all that often, anyways, the e-car at the 100,000 mile mark will have cost ~$2500. Apples to oranges, the Leaf to the Focus has a $27,500 operating cost differential in just fuel.

That's enough waste recovered out of the transportation portion of a budget to float a whole 'nother brand new vehicle right off the dealership lot that'll never be used but once or twice per year. I'm inclined to believe a rental car for road trips or a rental pick-up for landscaping, helping friends move & dump runs could be achieved for that & still come out ahead.

Tools for uses.
(But, yeah. I know my Prius still isn't cool. )
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Old 08-15-21, 09:27 AM
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Originally Posted by work4bike View Post
"The aim of science is to make difficult things understandable in a simpler way; the aim of poetry is to state simple things in an incomprehensible way. The two are incompatible."

-- Paul Dirac
Ergo your tag line:"The move from a structuralist account in which capital is understood to structure social relations in relatively homologous ways to a view of hegemony in which power relations are subject to repetition, convergence, and rearticulation brought the question of temporality into the thinking of structure, and marked a shift from a form of Althusserian theory that takes structural totalities as theoretical objects to one in which the insights into the contingent possibility of structure inaugurate a renewed conception of hegemony as bound up with the contingent sites and strategies of the rearticulation of power."

Professor Judith Butler
...from Peter White's Cycles
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Old 08-15-21, 09:35 AM
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Originally Posted by base2 View Post
I took $40/week x 4 weeks/mo = $160/mo gasoline expenditure of my Prius & converted it to $15 in electricity expense with a used Nissan Leaf.

I still took the Prius to Wyoming, Montana, Idaho, Oregon this summer.

The Prius itself in 100,000 miles has cost ~$24,000 dollars in petrol. An $8000 savings over the Ford Focus that I was considering when looking at new vehicles.

In terms of raw math, discounting practicalities of cross-country road trips that no one really does all that often, anyways, the e-car at the 100,000 mile mark will have cost ~$2500. Apples to oranges, the Leaf to the Focus has a $27,500 operating cost differential in just fuel.

That's enough waste recovered out of the transportation portion of a budget to float a whole 'nother brand new vehicle right off the dealership lot that'll never be used but once or twice per year. I'm inclined to believe a rental car for road trips or a rental pick-up for landscaping, helping friends move & dump runs could be achieved for that & still come out ahead.

Tools for uses.
(But, yeah. I know my Prius still isn't cool. )
Cool or not, you still own another car. So your household is at 3 cars for 2 drivers? Or 2 cars for 1 driver? All fine and dandy. Unless you dont want to own another car. Is there something like a Miata hidden in the equation?

Have you done the math the other way? The amount that went into the extra car (plus insurance, registration, its space rent value). Or the amount that went into replacing a car before the old one went 200,000-300,000 used as a down payment on a rental, put into vtsax, etc...

Like I said. Not for my family and our lifestyle. That said. Im the type that owns a car because I need to, not because I want to.

And like I said, a lot of EV owners I know have at least one other car, making it kind of a moot point.

But if you wanna sell me the Prius, shoot me a PM.
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Old 08-15-21, 10:58 AM
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Originally Posted by SkinGriz View Post
Cool or not, you still own another car. So your household is at 3 cars for 2 drivers? Or 2 cars for 1 driver? All fine and dandy. Unless you dont want to own another car. Is there something like a Miata hidden in the equation?

Have you done the math the other way? The amount that went into the extra car (plus insurance, registration, its space rent value). Or the amount that went into replacing a car before the old one went 200,000-300,000 used as a down payment on a rental, put into vtsax, etc...

Like I said. Not for my family and our lifestyle. That said. Im the type that owns a car because I need to, not because I want to.

And like I said, a lot of EV owners I know have at least one other car, making it kind of a moot point.

But if you wanna sell me the Prius, shoot me a PM.
This is very quickly going to go down the rabbit‐hole of hypotheticals with math that is far too complex for an internet messege board.

However, I'd like to think a monthly investment of the $145/mo Prius/Leaf differential or the $220/mo Focus/Leaf differential invested into VTSAX at a historical growth average of ~7% would leave you considerably better off than leaving that money at the gas pump.

At 43, retired & recreationally employed at 2 different bike shops, I'd like to think I know a thing or 2 about finances & finding efficiencies most people ignore. Moving to a used e-car & paying for it in cash to replace an inefficient POS was only 1 step. Solving a transportation need 11 years ago with a Prius was another. (For a long time we only had 1 car for which the Prius was a replacement.) The Prius doesn't move very much. But, it's a legacy concern I'd actually like to be rid of in favor of another e-car. But, with how little it gets used the cost/benefit analysis gets skewed to just leaving well enough alone. I'll probably die with it. Total cost of ownership less than $1000/year fuel, insurance, maintenance. It is a useful tool.

Yes, the money from both decisions went to Vangard. Last I cared enough to look, it was up 30%...I am aware that is a historical abberation.

You wondered how en e-car effects finances of multi-car households...Is my answer complete? I imagine a non-Leaf/Prius household would see even greater benefit.
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