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Oaks and Derby time

Old 05-06-22, 05:24 AM
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Oaks and Derby time

Today is the Kentucky Oaks (the girl's version of the Derby). This one is easy. Nest has coasted home in the last couple races without really being asked. That includes a daylight victory in a grade one last time at Keeneland. She is the morning line favorite, but there are some other tough runners in here, like Kathleen O and the undefeated Echo Zulu. So, you might get 2:1 or more on Nest. If you get it, take it!

Inventing looks like an easy pick in race 2, as does Juju's Map in race 4 and Bleaker Street in race 5, so the early pick 5 looks like chalk city. In fact, there is not much I like on the card that does not look like a short price, but of course there are always a few surprises on the big days.

For the Derby, I like the Florida Derby winner White Abarrio. There is a bit of a question about his love for the extra furlong, but digging deeper, his pedigree contains a nice mix of speed and distance. He always breaks well and stays out of trouble. He has been ridden in a way that shows the connections know they have the best horse. They've always chosen to use his speed to put him close to the lead, but also to stay on the outside each time to keep him out of trouble. In other words, they will concede the extra distance by running wide because they know he should win if he doesn't get a crap trip. The trip can be everything in the Derby, so if he gets another good one, he will have a chance to win with a top effort while many others will lose all chance with rough rides.

Money Supply looks very strong in race 4 at a fair price. Jack Christopher is an easy favorite to single in race 7.

TLDR, I can't support any decent price on paper at Churchill either day except White Abarrio, so I'll try to make do with singling some favorites and using the all button in a few wide open races.

Outside of Churchill I've found a few juicy nuggets. Dulce Kiara in race 8 at Laurel is 30:1 on the morning line Friday. However, he was making what looked like a winning moving heading into the turn last time when he clipped heels and lost all his mojo, and he ran on well to gain back a bit of the lost ground. Saturday, Peace Dog is 6:1 in race 10 at Oaklawn as he drops back from stakes company into a cozy optional claimer spot. St. Pat's Day is 8:1 in race 9 at Gulfstream. All she did was roll by the whole field in her debut without ever being asked.

Good luck to anyone who is playing and I would like to see any selections you would care to share.
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Old 05-06-22, 05:21 PM
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Well we got two wins and two seconds from the four horses I pointed out for today. The day played out pretty much as expected. Nest ran tough but got a very tough trip that cost her the victory. Still, it was great to see D. Wayne Lukas win one more big one (and he has a horse running in the Derby tomorrow).
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Old 05-06-22, 05:55 PM
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So are the jockeys women or are the horses mares?
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Old 05-06-22, 06:35 PM
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Originally Posted by chewybrian View Post
Well we got two wins and two seconds from the four horses I pointed out for today. The day played out pretty much as expected. Nest ran tough but got a very tough trip that cost her the victory. Still, it was great to see D. Wayne Lukas win one more big one (and he has a horse running in the Derby tomorrow).
Is Baffert in the wings of the Lukas camp? Just askin... Without Baffert at the barns of Churchill, there's a lot of good horses available for other very competitive trainers... I haven't been keeping up leading up to this weekend at all....
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Old 05-07-22, 02:30 AM
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Originally Posted by SkinGriz View Post
So are the jockeys women or are the horses mares?
It was a fillies race. Most of the jockeys are men, but there are a few ladies.
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Old 05-07-22, 02:34 AM
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Originally Posted by 308jerry View Post
Is Baffert in the wings of the Lukas camp? Just askin... Without Baffert at the barns of Churchill, there's a lot of good horses available for other very competitive trainers... I haven't been keeping up leading up to this weekend at all....
Baffert is banned in name only and only in Kentucky, where he doesn't run too often anyway. His horses are still running under his assistant's name. Taiba and Messier are both Baffert horses, and they both have a good shot to win. The next time they run, presumably not in Kentucky, Baffert will be the trainer again.
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Old 05-07-22, 06:15 AM
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OK, I have one more pick outside Churchill. Patient Capital is in the fifth at Belmont today. The rider lost the irons at the start in his debut and really should have fallen off the horse, but he stayed on, eventually got straight again, and then went on to win!

I couldn't snip from the video, but it is worth checking out the start of that race:

Choose Aquaduct, April 1, race 4, and choose "head on" view...

https://www.nyra.com/belmont/racing/replays
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Old 05-07-22, 06:45 AM
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Holy crap, that could have been a bad wreak.... By the time he got his foot back in the stirrup he was actually still where he needed to be...
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Old 05-07-22, 10:15 AM
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Originally Posted by chewybrian View Post
It was a fillies race. Most of the jockeys are men, but there are a few ladies.
fillies. Thank you.
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Old 05-07-22, 05:59 PM
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Well, that was a soul crushing Derby outcome and still great. Sonny Leon is my favorite jockey. I bet him every time he comes down to Keeneland from Ohio, and any time I can get the right price on him in Ohio. But, you just couldn't handicap that horse winning. I still used him with 5 horses in the double and 5 in the exacta and chose the wrong 5 both ways. Meanwhile Leon won with the greatest ride I've ever seen at 80:1, thanks in large part to a suicidal pace that just blew up the race. So, way to go, Sonny, and way to overthink it, Chewy!
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Old 05-07-22, 06:13 PM
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Wow, nice ride... I bet that jockey is still ODin on adrenaline..
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Old 05-07-22, 06:15 PM
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I saw the alert on my iPad and thought of Chewybrian. Long shot wins Kentucky Derby.

Last edited by Hondo Gravel; 05-08-22 at 01:04 PM. Reason: Brian not Brain lol.
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Old 05-07-22, 08:20 PM
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That jockey rode an truly outstanding race. Wow! The horse was great, too. Amazing acceleration and the rider got every bit out of that horse.
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Old 05-08-22, 08:08 AM
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Originally Posted by ahsposo View Post
That jockey rode an truly outstanding race. Wow! The horse was great, too. Amazing acceleration and the rider got every bit out of that horse.
Just like a bicycle rider: He came out of nowhere! But with a happier result.

Sure surprised the caller of the race who didn't see him at all until he was just about at the wire.
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Old 05-08-22, 09:31 AM
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Originally Posted by chewybrian View Post
Well, that was a soul crushing Derby outcome and still great. Sonny Leon is my favorite jockey. I bet him every time he comes down to Keeneland from Ohio, and any time I can get the right price on him in Ohio. But, you just couldn't handicap that horse winning. I still used him with 5 horses in the double and 5 in the exacta and chose the wrong 5 both ways. Meanwhile Leon won with the greatest ride I've ever seen at 80:1, thanks in large part to a suicidal pace that just blew up the race. So, way to go, Sonny, and way to overthink it, Chewy!
Had a day of travel yesterday, so just got to watch the race in its entirely. Wonderful story of jockey, trainer and owner.... The horse was picked by no one. Yea that blistering pace may have helped this horse but his time at the wire sez hez not a fluke. He just came into his own on race day. Congrats to all the connections of Rich Strike, and good luck in two weeks. And thanks Chewybrian for starting this thread....
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Old 05-08-22, 01:47 PM
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Horse races are SO much more interesting as a spectator sport than bicycle races.
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Old 05-10-22, 08:25 PM
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Originally Posted by chewybrian View Post
It was a fillies race. Most of the jockeys are men, but there are a few ladies.
That's an interesting question, I never wondered about that before! What are the strength requirements for jockeys that would make it harder for female jockeys to compete at high levels?
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Old 05-11-22, 05:15 AM
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Originally Posted by RubeRad View Post
That's an interesting question, I never wondered about that before! What are the strength requirements for jockeys that would make it harder for female jockeys to compete at high levels?
Try this and see...



You'll be sweating profusely and gasping for air at the end if you are doing it right. It's not the strain of pulling on the reins to control the horse. The bulk of the energy is spent relieving the horse from the energy it would take to pull the dead weight of a jockey not riding his hardest. They are bending their knees and arms in perfect time with the motions of the horse such that the horse never needs to strain against them sitting dead weight or moving against the horse.

The jocks are very strong for their weight, but it also takes a lot of aerobic fitness to ride the entire race properly each time. Ladies can do it successfully, but there haven't been too many (yet) at the highest levels. I think that is partly because they are not quite as strong pound for pound but partly out of prejudice.

One final note is that they have to keep their weight in a very tight range that is not easy to maintain along with the strength and fitness requirements. There is a classic tale of Laffit Pincay on a flight to a race. He took a peanut out of the pack and ate half, claiming that he was saving the other half for later. It's only half a joke, I suspect.
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Old 05-11-22, 06:01 AM
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Originally Posted by chewybrian View Post
Baffert is banned in name only and only in Kentucky, where he doesn't run too often anyway. His horses are still running under his assistant's name. Taiba and Messier are both Baffert horses, and they both have a good shot to win. The next time they run, presumably not in Kentucky, Baffert will be the trainer again.
His current 90 day suspension is effective nationwide. That was imposed by the Kentucky Racing Commission and is honored by other jurisdictions. So his other horses in California are also running under different trainers right now. That will end in June.

Churchill Downs has also banned him as an independent act. That ban applies only at Churchill and at this point they plan to maintain that through next year's Derby. Although I think Baffert will continue to challenge the ban in court.
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Old 05-11-22, 12:44 PM
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Originally Posted by jon c. View Post
His current 90 day suspension is effective nationwide. That was imposed by the Kentucky Racing Commission and is honored by other jurisdictions. So his other horses in California are also running under different trainers right now. That will end in June.

Churchill Downs has also banned him as an independent act. That ban applies only at Churchill and at this point they plan to maintain that through next year's Derby. Although I think Baffert will continue to challenge the ban in court.
I knew about the 2 years from Churchill but I did not know about the 90 day ban. Both penalties seem to be pretty light, though.
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Old 05-11-22, 01:47 PM
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[QUOTE=chewybrian;22502391]Try this and see...



You'll be sweating profusely and gasping for air at the end if you are doing it right. It's not the strain of pulling on the reins to control the horse. The bulk of the energy is spent relieving the horse from the energy it would take to pull the dead weight of a jockey not riding his hardest. They are bending their knees and arms in perfect time with the motions of the horse such that the horse never needs to strain against them sitting dead weight or moving against the horse.

The jocks are very strong for their weight, but it also takes a lot of aerobic fitness to ride the entire race properly each time. Ladies can do it successfully, but there haven't been too many (yet) at the highest levels. I think that is partly because they are not quite as strong pound for pound but partly out of prejudice.[QUOTE]
Very interesting, thanks!

One final note is that they have to keep their weight in a very tight range that is not easy to maintain along with the strength and fitness requirements. There is a classic tale of Laffit Pincay on a flight to a race. He took a peanut out of the pack and ate half, claiming that he was saving the other half for later. It's only half a joke, I suspect.
Where have I seen something like that before?




Also reminds me of Ender's Shadow, the novel which retells Ender's Game, but from Bean's perspective/history/timeline. There's a point at which he's near death from starvation, and he gets a few peanuts, and it says how he knows he has to slowly and carefully chew as much as possible, make sure he gets all possible nutrients out

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Old 05-11-22, 05:05 PM
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Originally Posted by chewybrian View Post

You'll be sweating profusely and gasping for air at the end if you are doing it right. It's not the strain of pulling on the reins to control the horse. The bulk of the energy is spent relieving the horse from the energy it would take to pull the dead weight of a jockey not riding his hardest. They are bending their knees and arms in perfect time with the motions of the horse such that the horse never needs to strain against them sitting dead weight or moving against the horse.

The jocks are very strong for their weight, but it also takes a lot of aerobic fitness to ride the entire race properly each time. Ladies can do it successfully, but there haven't been too many (yet) at the highest levels. I think that is partly because they are not quite as strong pound for pound but partly out of prejudice.

One final note is that they have to keep their weight in a very tight range that is not easy to maintain along with the strength and fitness requirements. There is a classic tale of Laffit Pincay on a flight to a race. He took a peanut out of the pack and ate half, claiming that he was saving the other half for later. It's only half a joke, I suspect.

You are spot on it's very strenuous. Hand strength is essential also. Shake the hand of a jockey, vice grips comes to mind..
Julie Krone *(sp) was the hardest riding jockey I've ever watched. One particular race she was in, going into the first turn, the horse next to her on the outside was crowding her and her horse. She reached over and hit the jockey and I believe the horse also with the whip... One of the toughest jocks out there in the day...
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Old 05-11-22, 05:14 PM
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Originally Posted by chewybrian View Post
I knew about the 2 years from Churchill but I did not know about the 90 day ban. Both penalties seem to be pretty light, though.
Given his track record, I agree.

I've been following him since the early 80s when he was winning quarter horse futurities at bush tracks in Arizona. I was a fan for a long time, But the violations and questionable practices over the years became too much.
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