Bikes in 10 years
 

HI, everyone,
probably this has been asked before but why not poke BF with a stick one more time :)
I was thinking about how bike component manufacturers always come up with a new ways how to sell new stuff by adding new gears, changing compatability etc, so it got me thinking what will be next "upgrades".
Will new mid range bike at LBS in 10 years will have 12 speed cassette? electronic shifting? redesigned derailleurs so even 1 generation older drivetrains will have to be totally upgraded? some new "tricks" with disc brakes? increased spacing? maybe push for IGH?
What are your troughts, how "average" bike in 10 years will differ from current bikes?

How about watt meters built into the componentry and programs as a part of a bike computer that would enable the rider to select levels of resistance like a stationary exercise bike so that gears are shifted automatically depending on the terrain to obtain a particular level of output --e.g., you could be riding on flat ground but depending on the gearing, you could be on Lance's climb up the Alpe d'Huez?

Built GPS bike computers. More carbon fiber bikes as the cost trickles down. More acceptance of flatbars on road bikes.

Integrated onboard wifi/Bluetooth of the equivalent thereof - a "smart bike" that has a lot of the same features cars do now, phone, navigation, information, etcetera

Whatever it will be, the bikes will be more expensive. Just give me a bike without all that bling that I can afford to own.

Plastics used in CF frames will improve even more. Carbon nanotubes?

We'll see the further elimination of triples as wider-range doubles and cassettes become more readily-available.

More electronic shifting.

Why aren't we seeing more use of aerodynamic tubing in handlebars already?

Most cyclists don't care about power meters, even on higher-end stuff. They'd have to become as cheap as an extra braze-on before they'd be universally installed; and I don't see that happening.

High efficiency miniature batteries and motors, small enough to fit in a bicycle seat post, will be the norm, kind of like the one Fabian Cancellara used to win the tour of Flanders and Paris Roubaix.

the Rohloff hub will have had a few oil changes maybe a new cog and chain , but still working just fine.. :p

Automatic transmissions.

There won't be any bikes in ten years. With a continual increased in carbon fiber use, along with lighter and lighter components, electrical systems, high pressure tires, and the miniaturizing of parts (look at how much narrower chains, for example, are) everything is going to asplode in approximately 7 years, 6 months and 23 days. Ten years from now we're all going to be back to walking.

Disc Brakes will be the default braking system.

And on electronic groups, there will be ABS.

GH

My first thought was to hope that we'll see a Rohloff (or Rohloff-like) geared hub that can compete with derailer systems on both efficiency and price.

Don't know about everyone else, but (unless stolen or wrecked) in ten years I'll still be riding my steel frame bike with Ultegra 6500 (9spd), friction shifted, that's already a decade "out of date" now. Riding fully satisfied and smiling, I might add. My almost 20 year old Bianchi Milano converted to light SS beach cruiser with balloon tires will still be filling in the gaps :)

Bikes will become even more disposable.
In the 80's, it was sell-a-bike, lose a customer--decidedly a losing business model. The stupid bikes made back then never wear out. I still have over half a dozen steel bikes from that era and they ain't gonna wear out in my lifetime.

Engineered-obsolescence--an idea whose time has come.

https://playingintheworldgame.files....13/03/url2.jpg

I'm still waiting on my jet pack and flying car.

My steel frame bike with a three speed SA hub will continue to work fine, as it has for a number of years. Perhaps more folks will realize the the latest, greatest gizmo, isn't always so.

Hope I can still source 9-speed stuff in ten years.

More emphasis on aero all around. Carbon nanotube frames and wheels. 12 speed electronic. No triple and greater choices with compacts. Definately powermeter computers with very long battery life.

I really see this as something they could be doing on bikes now (but for a different purpose). It would esentially give you ERG mode on your bike. You tell the computer you're doing your ironman at 200 watts, and the bike shifts gears automatically to keep your power output as close to 200w as possible. If I knew anything about electronics I'd be working on it already :-)

Department store bikes with brakes that work?

We will come full circle and the hot new thing will be a steel-frame bike with a hassle-free 2x5 drivetrain and these super reliable cable pull brakes. This "innovative" bike will now cost $2500 for the most basic model in order to pay for the marketing costs to convince cyclists that this is a must-have.

Carbon fiber will be the high tensile steel of the 1990s: only for the cheap bikes. Graphine will take over the high end. Parts on mainstream bikes will be no more interchangeable than car parts are today. Bikes are not meant to last more than 3 years. All the classic style bikes and parts will be readily available if relatively expensive.

The computer can't make you stay at 200w if you don't want to. Shifting gears won't make any difference.

digital implants that will intuitively "learn" the riders style. All data will be recorded and automatically uploaded to phone where your audible "coach" will instruct you to improve efficiency. The implant will analyze all systems and make adjustments on the fly. Additional features such as holographically projecting a pretty girl with a 'come hither' look to get you spinning with maximum effort.
I could go on but I guess you get my drift....Ten years may be a little too soon for all the features I can envision, but I thank the op because this was fun

That assumes department store assemblers who know what they're doing. :notamused: