How accurate is bicyclebluebook?
 

I started cycling about 8 months ago using an early 90's Giant MTB that I did some work on to make more comfortable and roadworthy. As I get in better shape and do longer rides, I'm considering an upgrade to an endurance road bike; something like a Giant Defy or similar.

I've been shopping on craigslist but don't have a good idea of value. I've discovered the bicyclebluebook.com website but most bikes I see are priced above the highest values and some well above.

Is bicyclebluebook not all that accurate or am I seeing adds from people that don't have a realistic idea as to what their bike is worth?

I'm not looking to get the deal of a lifetime but would like to pay a fair price.

The bluebook is a loose guideline at best.

Prices vary by location, season, and condition. The variance is tremendous, probably 3:1 between a good condition bike in Spring, and a fixer upper in November.

If you're near a college, prices, both buy and sell are highest in September, and lowest at the end of May as incoming students buy and sell their transport.

If you're able to accurately estimate condition and do your own work fixing or adjusting, but not replacing many parts, you can get great deals on bikes in sub prime condition. Otherwise, be careful because just a few basic replacement part needs can turn the best deal into a dog.

In the end a bicycle is worth whatever a buyer and seller agree upon. Regardless of what any guide book says, if you can't find a seller who is willing to sell for that price, it's a no deal.

Asking price and selling price for second hand bikes are two different things. A seller may ask but unless the buyer agrees there will be no sale. As a buyer, you can quote the bluebook value if you think the asking price is too high. nobody can force you to pay what the seller is asking.
If a bike has been for sale for an extended period of time the asking price was too high and your negotiating position is better

Bicycle blue book is about the worst thing to happen to the used bike market in a decade.
Its pricing is completely arbitrary and has little bearing on reality.

It's a good negotiating tool for overpriced bikes.