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Will Electric Bikes Overtake Standard Bike Sales?

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Old 11-14-18, 09:48 AM
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Originally Posted by jefnvk
I doubt much at all, except for dense urban centres in year round good weather cities. Not too many people in northern climates find any two wheeled vehicle an acceptable replacement for a car when the snow starts to fall.
I live in Green Bay about a mile from the center of town, I can bike to most places that I need to go in under ten minutes. This is in part due to life choices I've made: the kind of house I like, the geography I've picked. So it's hardly a dense urban area, but it's eminently bike-able. Where it breaks down is multi-point errand runs where you find yourself needing to get things from various parts of town in a time constrained way, and when I need to do a few things and then pick my kids up from school. I don't plan on giving up my car, but I am trying to not use it reflexively. A lot of people just jump into the car to drive three blocks without giving it a moment's thought.

I don't worry about my transportation bike being stolen. I lock it up as best I can. I did "de-Trek" it, because someone told me that that's a brand that uninformed bike thieves think they can resell really easily. I have about $150 into and I'd be sad if it were stolen, but not devastated. But this is all very reasonable where I live.

Anyway, my original point is that I see a lot of hope in e-bikes changing the way people view personal transportation options. I saw an older lady on a bike with a Copenhagen wheel the other day, she had a grocery bag in her basket, and I thought, "right on!"
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Old 11-14-18, 09:50 AM
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Originally Posted by Gresp15C
We've done a similar thing with conventional bikes, before the recent surge in e-bikes. The kids know that the family isn't going to have more than two cars. Mom and Dad already get around by bike whenever possible, and we've gotten the kids into cycling as well. They ride to school, because it means they can get up a few minutes later -- riding is actually quicker than the bus. On many days, neither car leaves the house.

I certainly wouldn't discourage doing the same with e-bikes. We let the kids have some choice in the matter. My daughter got a decrepit old single-speed from a work colleague of mine, and rebuilt it herself. My son turned a bike boom ten speed into a hipster bike. Getting the kids up to speed on maintenance has paid off for us.
That's awesome!
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Old 11-14-18, 10:51 AM
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Originally Posted by Mogens
I live in Green Bay about a mile from the center of town, I can bike to most places that I need to go in under ten minutes. This is in part due to life choices I've made: the kind of house I like, the geography I've picked. So it's hardly a dense urban area, but it's eminently bike-able. Where it breaks down is multi-point errand runs where you find yourself needing to get things from various parts of town in a time constrained way, and when I need to do a few things and then pick my kids up from school. I don't plan on giving up my car, but I am trying to not use it reflexively. A lot of people just jump into the car to drive three blocks without giving it a moment's thought.
Do you use your bike as your only regular means of transit in February in Green Bay? And even if some here would be willing to do so, do you think the overwhelming majority of your neighbors would?
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Old 11-14-18, 11:24 AM
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Originally Posted by jefnvk
Do you use your bike as your only regular means of transit in February in Green Bay? And even if some here would be willing to do so, do you think the overwhelming majority of your neighbors would?
I don't live quite as far north as Da Frozen Tundra, but my kids ride during the winter. We have four sets of studded tires for a family of four.

But we're not car free. It's hard to transport musical instruments on a bike. In fact, music is my main reason for owning a car.

But you have a point. The effort of pedaling is only one of the physical aspects of cycling. There are more, including weather. For this reason, e-bikes will probably get more people into cycling, but certainly not everybody.
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Old 11-14-18, 11:33 AM
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Originally Posted by jefnvk
Do you use your bike as your only regular means of transit in February in Green Bay? And even if some here would be willing to do so, do you think the overwhelming majority of your neighbors would?
No, and that's not the argument that I'm making; I'm not really even making an argument. I'm saying that I've made a commitment to change how I think about how I use my car and that I'm hoping that e-bikes will make more and better transit options available to people.
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Old 11-14-18, 11:37 AM
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Originally Posted by Gresp15C
I don't live quite as far north as Da Frozen Tundra, but my kids ride during the winter. We have four sets of studded tires for a family of four.

But we're not car free. It's hard to transport musical instruments on a bike. In fact, music is my main reason for owning a car.

But you have a point. The effort of pedaling is only one of the physical aspects of cycling. There are more, including weather. For this reason, e-bikes will probably get more people into cycling, but certainly not everybody.
Originally Posted by Mogens
No, and that's not the argument that I'm making; I'm not really even making an argument. I'm saying that I've made a commitment to change how I think about how I use my car and that I'm hoping that e-bikes will make more and better transit options available to people.
My response was more in relation to the question on how ebikes would cause people to go car free. In that scope, I don't see it having much of an impact, except maybe some year-round fair weather cities where it is easy to get around on bikes. I'm looking forward to tossing the studded tires on the fatty and riding around town more this winter, but I'm not of the opinion that many others would do so as well, electrified or not!
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Old 11-14-18, 11:45 AM
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Originally Posted by jefnvk
My response was more in relation to the question on how ebikes would cause people to go car free. In that scope, I don't see it having much of an impact, except maybe some year-round fair weather cities where it is easy to get around on bikes. I'm looking forward to tossing the studded tires on the fatty and riding around town more this winter, but I'm not of the opinion that many others would do so as well, electrified or not!
I don't think it's a binary thing, at least it's not for me. We sell at a farmer's market, so having a LARGE vehicle that we can load up with tents & (in our case) hummus is necessary. Otherwise we'd probably need a cart and a team of draft horses. What I'm seeing is that more people are cycling as more bike lanes and paths are opened up, which is building a culture that is just beginning to create the political will to plan for these options going into the future. And it's about time. This is all pretty far off of the original topic, which I don't honestly have an informed prediction on.
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Old 11-14-18, 09:36 PM
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Originally Posted by Mogens
I don't think it's a binary thing, at least it's not for me. We sell at a farmer's market, so having a LARGE vehicle that we can load up with tents & (in our case) hummus is necessary. Otherwise we'd probably need a cart and a team of draft horses. What I'm seeing is that more people are cycling as more bike lanes and paths are opened up, which is building a culture that is just beginning to create the political will to plan for these options going into the future. And it's about time. This is all pretty far off of the original topic, which I don't honestly have an informed prediction on.
Mmm, hummus. My standard lunch at work is a sandwich of homemade hummus on homemade bread.
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Old 11-14-18, 11:01 PM
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Ohm Cycles has a 30% off bikes sale starting next week. These e-bikes have some of the quietest motors around:

https://ohmcycles.com

Rad Power Bikes is discounting their entire line of bikes by $300 to $400 dollars next week. These are below pre-tariff prices. One heck of a deal IMO.

https://www.radpowerbikes.com/pages/...y-cyber-monday

Will post more deals I come across.

Unnecessary disclosure: I do not have a personal or financial affiliation with any ebike brand.
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Old 11-15-18, 11:02 AM
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Just a thought, this thread started out as an innocent question about e-bike sales, and has now morphed into a full blown advocacy thread. As such, perhaps it needs to be moved into the e-cycling subforum.
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Old 11-15-18, 12:46 PM
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I recently had lots of posts (?) in my Facebook feed from RadPowerBikes. Ads, really. Annoying ads.
Big part of their message was that it is undesirable to show up at work (or elsewhere) with a red face and perspiration after bike commuting.
I'm pretty sure that's a Normal Physiologic Response to Exercise.
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Old 11-15-18, 02:52 PM
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Originally Posted by Gresp15C
Just a thought, this thread started out as an innocent question about e-bike sales, and has now morphed into a full blown advocacy thread. As such, perhaps it needs to be moved into the e-cycling subforum.
I think I am going to start policing every thread too, just to make sure nothing can be in general if it can remotely possibly be anywhere else. Heck, we probably should just get rid of general, everything can be placed elsewhere

There are a lot of subforums here that most of us never visit, and it is actually interesting to get some crosstalk between them in the general forum.
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Old 11-15-18, 04:16 PM
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Originally Posted by General Geoff
Yes - Until governments crack down on them and start requiring a motorcycle license to ride them on public roads,

I agree that these are the "low-end" of motorized transport. That said, I think there are big benefits to reducing vehicle weight from 2 tons to 50 lbs, so I'm in favor of increased e-bike/e-scooter/e-whatever use (when it reduces car use).

In my state (Minnesota), pedal-assist e-bikes (and electric scooters etc) are limited to 20mph. Those need no license at all to operate today. 50cc motor scooters are limited to 30mph, and require a normal car driver's license. So, if state gov'ts decided to license e-bikes, I expect it would be the same as 50cc scooters, and would not require a motorcycle endorsement.

I think that the states will need to work harder to classify new personal transit electrified devices. For example, you can probably ride an electric Vespa at 30 mph with a with a normal driver's license. But there is no legal way to ride an e-bike at 30mph, even with a motorcycle endorsement (you would first need to get a motorcycle license plate and insurance!). States will also need to standardize DUI-like penalties for users of electrified mobility devices. I remember reading an account of a Norwegian teen who crashed his skateboard into a potted plant in the summer of 2000, and was arrested for DUI (the skateboard was fitted with a model-airplane engine, and had a top speed of 6mph). I think I also read about an American getting a DUI when using a "mobility scooter" (like a wheelchair).

People will need to decide what the limits should be for e-vehicle use of bike paths/greenway: No electrics? Electrics only permitted with a Handicap/Limited Mobility sticker? Pedal-assist only for bicycles? (but then what about foot scooters, which have no pedals?) 15mph limit? 20 mph limit? Once that is done, they will need to decide what modes of transport require which kind of driver's license.

I think a 15 mph limit on mixed-use bike paths is appropriate for anything without a license plate. I think anything with a license plate needs a headlight, speedometer, turn signals, brake light and insurance, and should be able to go 30 mph on city streets with a regular drivers license (just like a 50cc motor scooter). And if you decide to get a license plate for your e-bike, then you give-up the ability to ride on multi-use paths/greenways. (I could also be convinced that both of those speed limits should be 5mph higher).

Last edited by specialgreen; 11-15-18 at 04:48 PM.
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Old 11-15-18, 04:18 PM
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Originally Posted by jefnvk
I think I am going to start policing every thread too, just to make sure nothing can be in general if it can remotely possibly be anywhere else. Heck, we probably should just get rid of general, everything can be placed elsewhere

There are a lot of subforums here that most of us never visit, and it is actually interesting to get some crosstalk between them in the general forum.
My bad, I overreacted.
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Old 11-15-18, 04:33 PM
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Originally Posted by specialgreen
I agree that these are the "low-end" of motorized transport. That said, I think there are big benefits to reducing vehicle weight from 2 tons to 50 lbs, so I'm in favor of increased use (when it reduces car use).

In my state (Minnesota), pedal-assist e-bikes (and electric scooters etc) are limited to 20mph. Those need no license at all to operate today. 50cc motor scooters are limited to 30mph, and require a normal car driver's license. So, if state gov'ts decided to license e-bikes, I expect it would be the same as 50cc scooters, and would not require a motorcycle endorsement.

I think that the states will need to work harder to classify new personal transit electrified devices. For example, you can probably ride an electric Vespa at 30 mph with a with a normal driver's license. But there is no legal way to ride an e-bike at 30mph, even with a motorcycle endorsement (you would first need to get a motorcycle license plate and insurance!).

People will need to decide what the limits should be for e-vehicle use of bike paths/greenway: No electrics? Electrics only permitted with a Handicap/Limited Mobility sticker? Pedal-assist only for bicycles? (but then what about foot scooters, which have no pedals?) 15mph limit? 20 mph limit? Once that is done, they will need to decide what modes of transport require which kind of driver's license.

I ride my pedal bike faster than 15mph (despite my city's 14mph "speed limit" on bike paths), so I think a 20mph limit on bike paths is appropriate for anything without a license plate. I think anything with a license plate needs turn signals, brake lights and insurance, and should be able to go 35mph on city streets with a regular drivers license. (this is 5mph faster than today's 50cc scooter laws).
It's all so confusing right now. Not to mention in NYC e-bikes are illegal but are ridden everywhere in the city.
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Old 11-15-18, 05:05 PM
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Originally Posted by radroad
It's all so confusing right now. Not to mention in NYC e-bikes are illegal but are ridden everywhere in the city.
I'd read about that: it sounds like pedal-assist e-bicycles are permitted, if they have a sticker from the manufacturer stating the maximum speed is less than 20mph. Bicycles that will move without pedaling (class-2/class-3) are prohibited.

NYC DOT Notice of Adoption--Pedal-Assist Bicycle Rule :
https://a856-cityrecord.nyc.gov/Requ...il/20180621102

I have also read about a NY state-level law requiring all motor-assist bicycles to be registered as motor vehicles, but I don't think NYC cops care about the state law.

Last edited by specialgreen; 11-15-18 at 05:10 PM.
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Old 11-15-18, 05:20 PM
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Bikes have always been human powered, since before the safety bike. Harley and Davidson put a motor on some, people powered bikes are still here. I think e commuters fit a great void for some. Something to be said for a simple machine like a bike. No gas or battery needed. a little chain lube, some air in the tires, I don't even get flats anymore.( one in 5 years, now i'm doomed fro saying the F word)
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Old 11-15-18, 06:06 PM
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Personally, I'd rather see fewer regulations on e-bikes. They are "illegal" on bike paths in my locale, but it's not enforced, and I still see e-bikes out there. Everybody thinks it's just an antiquated rule that needs to be updated. The e-cyclists seem well behaved and courteous. I don't see a big problem that needs to be solved with laws. Problems might emerge if e-bike traffic increases significantly, but I'm willing to wait and see what happens. Any reaction to a new technology that's in its early-adopter phase, is likely to be an overreaction. Also, an overreaction to e-bikes might spill over into onerous limits on my right to ride a conventional bike.

Insurance? Make my day. Adding cycling insurance to my car insurance policy would make my rate go down because cyclists are safer drivers, and bikes do less damage.

But I also believe that regulations (combined with selective enforcement) adversely affect people on the margins of society who might benefit the most from bike transportation options. I actually want people who can't get a driver's license, and can't afford insurance, to ride bikes. It's considerably less of a problem than encouraging those people to drive unregistered cars without a license.
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Old 11-15-18, 08:14 PM
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Originally Posted by Gresp15C
Personally, I'd rather see fewer regulations on e-bikes. They are "illegal" on bike paths in my locale, but it's not enforced, and I still see e-bikes out there. Everybody thinks it's just an antiquated rule that needs to be updated. The e-cyclists seem well behaved and courteous. I don't see a big problem that needs to be solved with laws. Problems might emerge if e-bike traffic increases significantly, but I'm willing to wait and see what happens. Any reaction to a new technology that's in its early-adopter phase, is likely to be an overreaction. Also, an overreaction to e-bikes might spill over into onerous limits on my right to ride a conventional bike.

Insurance? Make my day. Adding cycling insurance to my car insurance policy would make my rate go down because cyclists are safer drivers, and bikes do less damage.

But I also believe that regulations (combined with selective enforcement) adversely affect people on the margins of society who might benefit the most from bike transportation options. I actually want people who can't get a driver's license, and can't afford insurance, to ride bikes. It's considerably less of a problem than encouraging those people to drive unregistered cars without a license.
Well of course you don't see that yet -- its too soon. Wait until the price drops and you see more of the plebeians enter the group. I don't need to wait to know those MUP will become a chaotic free for all. Even now we have folks here complaining about "Spandex" clad cyclist going to fast for the elderly. Just what do you think will happen once the average Joe with little effort can attain those speeds?
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Old 11-15-18, 09:48 PM
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Haven't followed this thread,

but local bike advocacy group just did a member survey, &:

"More than half either own an e-bike or are interested in purchasing one, with 60 percent of those over the age of 65 owning or interested"
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Old 11-16-18, 05:14 AM
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In China, bike lanes are everywhere and most of them are separated. There are a lot more e-bikes than manual pedal bikes. That's because most people there use them for utilitarian purposes and e-bikes don't put as much a physical demand on the rider as manual bikes do. They also ride on the sidewalks and have a skill navigating through a crowd in the process of crossing the street. They don't stop. Neither do they plow through them. I'm not saying I advocate for that kind of driving. I'd rather be a pedestrian in Copenhagen than in Shanghai.
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Old 11-16-18, 08:17 AM
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Originally Posted by Gresp15C
Personally, I'd rather see fewer regulations on e-bikes. They are "illegal" on bike paths in my locale, but it's not enforced, and I still see e-bikes out there. Everybody thinks it's just an antiquated rule that needs to be updated. The e-cyclists seem well behaved and courteous. I don't see a big problem that needs to be solved with laws. Problems might emerge if e-bike traffic increases significantly, but I'm willing to wait and see what happens. Any reaction to a new technology that's in its early-adopter phase, is likely to be an overreaction. Also, an overreaction to e-bikes might spill over into onerous limits on my right to ride a conventional bike.
Yep, agree. People seemingly want to gloss over the fact that the ebikes these threads generally refer to, the class I pedal assists that cut out somewhere around 20MPH, don't allow riders to do anything that a younger or stronger rider couldn't do on a pedal bike anyhow. To anyone but the pedaler, there is no functional difference between them and a pedal bike.

Even if it requires an ebike, I'd rather see the elderly and less able out enjoying the outdoors than sitting around sedentary all day.

Originally Posted by Gresp15C
My bad, I overreacted.
Eh, I probably did too, but the "its ebikes, move it there" line simply bugs me. IMO, variety is good, especially in the general forum
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Old 11-16-18, 09:55 PM
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Originally Posted by jefnvk
Yep, agree. People seemingly want to gloss over the fact that the ebikes these threads generally refer to, the class I pedal assists that cut out somewhere around 20MPH, don't allow riders to do anything that a younger or stronger rider couldn't do on a pedal bike anyhow. To anyone but the pedaler, there is no functional difference between them and a pedal bike.

Even if it requires an ebike, I'd rather see the elderly and less able out enjoying the outdoors than sitting around sedentary all day.



Eh, I probably did too, but the "its ebikes, move it there" line simply bugs me. IMO, variety is good, especially in the general forum
E-bikes aren't going to compel them to get out -- they have to have the desire first. With the inclusion of more, and more automated functions, that makes this the most sedentary older generation in history.
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Old 11-16-18, 10:04 PM
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Originally Posted by KraneXL
E-bikes aren't going to compel them to get out -- they have to have the desire first. With the inclusion of more, and more automated functions, that makes this the most sedentary older generation in history.
Such cynicism. Maybe try talking to people on them sometime?
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Old 11-17-18, 01:01 AM
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Originally Posted by jefnvk
Such cynicism. Maybe try talking to people on them sometime?
I call 'em like I see 'em. Although I wish things were different.
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