I don't think it's wrong to worry about the future, the business changed overnight and it could definitely change again. The good news is every bike at my LBS sold, and in the past many of those bikes would have sat over the winter only to be sold at a discount next year. OTOH, we're already selling next year's bikes and 2022 bike may not be ready for a while because of parts shortages. Right now, all three shops in town are projecting repairs 3 weeks out. Some repairs sit for a while waiting for parts.

I wanted some parts for a new build and Shimano is projecting they'll be available in December or January.

Sales and repairs are only by appointment to keep the number of people in the shop down. It's very relaxed. It's funny that sales volumes aren't really down as a result.

Long term loyal customers get special treatment, but the truth is there is only so much you can do at this time. Expensive parts are more available than cheap ones. They have been building up bikes from frames, which means a premium over a stock bike. For example, pre-built wheels are unavailable, whereas you can get piece together a wheel from rims, spokes and hubs.

My LBS has had a four week backlog for months, but I don't think they're hurting since they charge about $100 per hour for service. They've been stripped of all but the most expensive bikes, and any new stock is gone within a day. The owner, a really smart individual, just adjusted to market conditions and had enough parts on hand to survive the drought.

Bike and component companies with complex multinational supply chains are suffering the most. This might teach them a lesson about making more of what they sell rather than getting cheaper and inferior products from slave nations. This bothers me to no end.

Gotta back up a few years. The bike business in the USA was trending down over the last handful of years. I've read speculations, but nobody really knew why - folks were riding, they just weren't buying as much. Anyway, in response, bike and component manufacturers wisely reduced their output (material, factory personnel, etc.) to match the market. Then 2020 and BAM! Everyone suddenly wants bike stuff at a time when there's less in the pipeline.

So now the manufacturers are wondering: if we ramp back up, will demand still be there next year? Some are betting yes, some are betting no.

On September 8th I put $500 down on a Trek that my LBS told me was scheduled to come in around the middle of October. I'm getting anxious because I want it but also anxious because hopefully they are still receiving the back in a week or so. If they say there's another month to wait I'll most likely ask for a refund and hot the local used market.

next year will be a great year for used bikes