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Predictions about upcoming new bike tech

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Predictions about upcoming new bike tech

Old 10-13-21, 01:30 AM
  #26  
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After even more time I also think it's possible that lightweight, reliable, race worthy internal gear hubs with many gears will be developed that will be shifted electronically to replace derailleurs.
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Old 10-13-21, 02:29 AM
  #27  
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Hoping that IGH + belt drive become widespread and cheap.

We see a lot of rain and try to avoid it. IGH + belt drive will change the game but is unaffordable atm.
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Old 10-13-21, 04:53 AM
  #28  
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Oversized tubes with internal storage sounds like a bad idea from an engineering standpoint.

This requires larger access holes which creates stress concentrations (weak spots). The larger tube diameter will also stiffen the frame making for a harsh ride.

I'm imagining something similar to aircraft construction with access panels for service. Probably look ugly.
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Old 10-13-21, 05:19 AM
  #29  
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All outdoor activity will be limited to the ruling classes, whose soft bodies will be bloated and powdered. There will be no bicycles for transportation or "fun". Bicycles will have been converted to inside zwift-like devices where the electrical power produced is dumped into a massive energy grid for maintaining the public collective life pods. The good news is that government information programming will be piped into heads-up displays for these human generators to consume non-stop. It'll feel virtuous to be "riding for the cause".

Last edited by Phil_gretz; 10-13-21 at 05:58 AM.
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Old 10-13-21, 05:56 AM
  #30  
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Originally Posted by mstateglfr View Post
They will continue to become more complicated. I will be continue to become more dejected.

The simplicity is in part what makes then so appealing. Otherwise I would just own a motorcycle or dirtbike.
I'm with you, brother. Pardon my retro-grouchiness, but I see a future where bike manufacturers follow the path of automobile manufacturers, and soon you won't be able to buy a new bike that doesnt come loaded down with tons of useless, less-than-effective, value-added, garbage.

Bikes are tools. They are simple by design on purpose. You use a tool to facilitate the job at hand - you dont need it for anything more than it is. A hammer is a simple tool. It does its job and never complains. A hammer does not need bluetooth, or built-in LEDs. All it needs to do is to hit the nail on the head.

Funny story: I just replaced the fan in my main bathroom. The old fan was about 20 years old, and was making noises. For a while, I milked it along as best I could, but it eventually just stopped spinning and made a humming sound. A trip to Home Depot revealed that they had simple fans and super-deluxe fully-loaded fans with Bluetooth and wifi, and battery-powered remotes and a whole slew of stuff I didnt need. I had to make a choice between an affordable simple fan for about $20 with no light, or a super-deluxe fan with a light for $100+. I needed a basic fan with a light, so I left the store and bought one from Bezos.

To stay in thread context, I think that bikes will surely evolve, but may or may not evolve into what we want. Its rarely about what we want, rather what the manufacturers in their infinite wisdom think we need. All of this commensurate with a healthy bottom line of course. I think that we'll see more electronics added to our bikes. Cars have lane sensors and collision sensors, so I think that the future for bicycles will be in the form of enhanced proximity awareness. I truly doubt that we'll see this or any other bicycle-themed electronics becoming the norm. There's way too many bicycles in the world, used as basic simple transportation. Electronics are just fluff. Wait... what're the fancy words for this again? Superfluous? Exorbitant? Extraneous?
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Old 10-13-21, 07:11 AM
  #31  
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If a smaller frame design that is beyond durable than anything that has been produced to which is lighter & actually look good could be a prediction, that'd be nice. I'd rather have wear items such as brakes, tires, cassettes, cranks, & shifters be the only major things to wear out with use. Frame fatigue, cracking, denting, & failing should not be a normal thing, yet it is when put thru the stresses of a daily road rider blasting down the road on poor pavement.
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Old 10-13-21, 07:23 AM
  #32  
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Envelope to the head, Turban set to the future......

I think that bikes will evolve to chainless, derailleurless designs bringing the bike up to 98%+ efficiency and creating more controversy for the engines in pro racing for the future.
Chain bikes will be for the lower classes.

We have already seen this coming. But I have yet to see a seating surface integrated into the frame making saddles obsolete. This could easily be done with the carbon fibre direction bikes are heading.
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Old 10-13-21, 07:43 AM
  #33  
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In short: Motors and wireless electronics anywhere and everywhere bike designers can stick them.

The current rear derailleur will still predominate, and people will still be talking about their inevitable demise, just like they were 20 years ago.

I dont see ABS ever really catching on beyond niche. At least not in the next decade.

Last edited by Kapusta; 10-13-21 at 07:49 AM.
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Old 10-13-21, 07:46 AM
  #34  
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ABS brakes for bikes already exist. But with all the extra weight needed to make this happen, really no reason for it to trickle down on bikes that are not e-bikes.

https://blubrake.com/

https://www.bosch-ebike.com/en/products/abs

Beyond a mild interest in electronic shifting, I'd rather bikes stay simplistic.

I kind of like this idea though.


https://www.ceramicspeed.com/en/cycling/d3
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Old 10-13-21, 07:52 AM
  #35  
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Originally Posted by tcs View Post
Like the Enviolo Automatiq?
Yes, but instead of holding a consistent cadence it could be connected to a power meter. Like, if you want to ride at 200 watts, the hub will automatically adjust to maintain a consistent "resistance" regardless of cadence.
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Old 10-13-21, 08:07 AM
  #36  
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Originally Posted by J.Higgins View Post

Bikes are tools. They are simple by design on purpose. You use a tool to facilitate the job at hand - you dont need it for anything more than it is. A hammer is a simple tool. It does its job and never complains. A hammer does not need bluetooth, or built-in LEDs. All it needs to do is to hit the nail on the head.
Interesting example. I agree that a basic hammer is awesome in its simplicity - unchanged for hundreds of years. On most job sites today, the hammer has been largely replaced by a pneumatic nailer (that probably has a built in LED light).
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Old 10-13-21, 08:25 AM
  #37  
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Originally Posted by Troul View Post
at some point there may be a wheel propelled by an engine to alleviate the rider from exhaustion. Higher tech might even make it AWD so it's even quicker off the line & stable in the twisties.

Perhaps add two wheels for stability and encase the rider in some sort of cage?
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Old 10-13-21, 08:31 AM
  #38  
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Originally Posted by rsbob View Post
Probably the same was said when the first multi-speed bike was introduced.

I'm pretty sure the safety bicycle already was considered something of a technical wonder when the multi-gearing was introduced. Anyway, we're talking about motorizing and computerizing the thing so I'm not even sure what's being described is the same machine as we're currently riding.
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Old 10-13-21, 08:38 AM
  #39  
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As supply chains collapse and civilisation begins a long descent to the next dark ages the new 2030 state of the art bicycles will be fixed gear with welded rolled sheet metal tubes and steel wheels available in any color as long as it’s black. It will be sold by the only retail outlet left, ‘Faceozn’, for only 5000 Zuck Bucks, the only currency of value in North America.
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Old 10-13-21, 08:38 AM
  #40  
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Originally Posted by mstateglfr View Post
They will continue to become more complicated. I will be continue to become more dejected.

The simplicity is in part what makes then so appealing. Otherwise I would just own a motorcycle or dirtbike.

I think the cumulative cost and weight of these non-motor doo-dads are going to make a non-electric bike so equipped a niche product.

I suspect, btw, that the up-featuring of bike tires is not going to fly very well unless the tires' longevity is significantly improved. Paying more for something that lasts only a few thousand miles (if you're lucky) is not the same trade-off as paying a bit more for car tires. Also, checking and filling your car tires is a bit more difficult than bike tires.
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Old 10-13-21, 08:40 AM
  #41  
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Originally Posted by Toadmeister View Post
Oversized tubes with internal storage sounds like a bad idea from an engineering standpoint.

This requires larger access holes which creates stress concentrations (weak spots). The larger tube diameter will also stiffen the frame making for a harsh ride.

I'm imagining something similar to aircraft construction with access panels for service. Probably look ugly.
Engineers already knows it so they reinforce these access holes. The only problem with reinforced holes / access panels is added weight. And the added weight can exceed the weight of a similar volume bag.

Same thing applies to airplane windows and if only passengers didn't care about the view, airliners would be made without windows to reduce weight which translates to fuel and operational cost savings.
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Old 10-13-21, 08:56 AM
  #42  
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Originally Posted by livedarklions View Post
I suspect, btw, that the up-featuring of bike tires is not going to fly very well unless the tires' longevity is significantly improved. Paying more for something that lasts only a few thousand miles (if you're lucky) is not the same trade-off as paying a bit more for car tires. Also, checking and filling your car tires is a bit more difficult than bike tires.
The clincher urban/touring tires on my bike is nearing 8,000 miles now and there's still a lot of tread left. It might as well last up to 10,000 miles. It never had a flat despite riding on harsh urban conditions with lots of potholes, broken glass, and lots of hard braking. And it only cost me $20 each tire (Panaracer Ribmo).

As with everything there's trade-off. These very long lasting, "bulletproof" tires don't grip the road well, is heavy, and has relatively high rolling resistance as it's optimized for slow city commutes or slow touring speeds, it's not going to win you races unless that race is 10,000 miles long and rules prohibit changing of tires.
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Old 10-13-21, 09:05 AM
  #43  
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I watch some auto programs.... a lot of the tools have lights, and for everyone who was tried to shine the beam from the headlight past the tool onto the fastener .....

ABS simply isn't needed. When hydro discs are ubiquitous, though ..... ugh.

I agree that internal-geared hubs and belt-drive will probably be a thing. Not sure if CVT will make it. Too much inefficiency and too little power to waste.

E-bikes and everything about them will increase in popularity and complexity.

Beyond that it is hard to see bikes ever becoming a big part of the transportation picture. Everyone wants climate control. No one wants to work or sweat. No one wants to be hot or cold or wet ... and bikes will always be at least a little sketchy in the wet, particularly in urban areas.

Sefl0inflating tires aren't likely to happen, because they would require either a pump or a reservoir--neither particularly lightweight.

As for frame storage--holes in frames won't happen. The whole reason a tube works as a frame member is because it has no holes. What we will see are add-on compartments like the (whichever bike) with a small compartment above the BB. Built-in storage containers instead of strap-on. But putting stuff inside the down tube? Not going to happen--Unless manufacturers double the size of the down tube (a double rectangle, cross-section two inches wide and six inches tall) with half being storage and the other half strength---which is a huge weight disadvantage.
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Old 10-13-21, 09:28 AM
  #44  
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Originally Posted by Kapusta View Post
I dont see ABS ever really catching on beyond niche. At least not in the next decade.
I disagree mostly because 10 years is a very long time in terms of emerging technology, and ABS seems like low hanging fruit and I don't think manufacturers will give customers much of a choice on it. Yes, at first it'll be an optional feature on high-end groupsets like Dura Ace and Ultegra, but I think it'll pretty quickly become a standard feature of brake components and just something that is built-in throughout the lineup.

I can see this type of tech following the same path as electronic shifting and disc brakes. Di2 was first released in 2009 (and plenty of people decried it as unnecessary, gimmicky, a solution to a problem that didn't exist, etc), and 12 years later Shimano released a new Ultegra groupset that is exclusively electronic.

A similar path is currently happening with road discs. It's only been 5 years since Shimano started selling a disc road groupset, yet in 2021 discs are nearly universal on new road bikes. Sure, they included a rim brake option for their latest Ultegra groupset, but that is mostly to allow people to upgrade older bikes. You won't find many (any) new bike builds spec'd with rim brake Ultegra or Dura Ace.
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Old 10-13-21, 09:38 AM
  #45  
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Originally Posted by livedarklions View Post
I'm pretty sure the safety bicycle already was considered something of a technical wonder when the multi-gearing was introduced.
Fun fact: multi-gearing predates the safety bicycle.
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Old 10-13-21, 09:43 AM
  #46  
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Smaller diameter wheels...with suspension.

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Old 10-13-21, 09:48 AM
  #47  
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My bikes will be much different than those described in posts above.

For me, this thread makes the case for that small frame builder who will produce a bike to my specs.


Bought a child’s tricycle - no brakes, no electronics, no tubeless tires, no storage place for Barbie to hide, no place to mount a computer, no Strava, Zwift, HowdyDoody, or Tennessee Tuxedo cartoons. Kid squealed with excitement and smiled every second while manually pedaling. Thank doG. Call me a kid who enjoys a bike ride.
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Old 10-13-21, 09:49 AM
  #48  
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Originally Posted by Toadmeister View Post
Oversized tubes with internal storage sounds like a bad idea from an engineering standpoint.

This requires larger access holes which creates stress concentrations (weak spots). The larger tube diameter will also stiffen the frame making for a harsh ride.

I'm imagining something similar to aircraft construction with access panels for service. Probably look ugly.
Originally Posted by cubewheels View Post
Holes on tube need to be reinforced, else it will become easy starting point for cracks. Bigger holes mean more reinforcing material.

The added weight in reinforcement and padding/liner is probably heavier than a saddle bag why only few has adopted it. It only makes your bike look a bit more neat but doesn't do anything for performance / weight.
Originally Posted by Maelochs View Post
As for frame storage--holes in frames won't happen. The whole reason a tube works as a frame member is because it has no holes. What we will see are add-on compartments like the (whichever bike) with a small compartment above the BB. Built-in storage containers instead of strap-on. But putting stuff inside the down tube? Not going to happen--Unless manufacturers double the size of the down tube (a double rectangle, cross-section two inches wide and six inches tall) with half being storage and the other half strength---which is a huge weight disadvantage.
I had no idea that the suggestion of integrated storage would trigger such a reaction.
Another poster previously pointed out that Trek already has this on the Domane. Trek didn't seem to have to overly engineer the downtube to accommodate a relatively large hole. A 56cm Domane frame/fork with isospeed, storage and hardware is 1235g. I'm sure the storage is adding some weight here, but this isn't some unsolvable conundrum.

I'm not sure why this isn't a feature on more bikes, but maybe there just isn't much of a market for it? It seems like a no-brainer to me. I'd love to have internal storage like this for a flat/tool kit that is always on the bike, out of sight. It also would allow a seat bag to be used to store other things.






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Old 10-13-21, 09:53 AM
  #49  
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Originally Posted by Phil_gretz View Post
All outdoor activity will be limited to the ruling classes, whose soft bodies will be bloated and powdered. There will be no bicycles for transportation or "fun". Bicycles will have been converted to inside zwift-like devices where the electrical power produced is dumped into a massive energy grid for maintaining the public collective life pods. The good news is that government information programming will be piped into heads-up displays for these human generators to consume non-stop. It'll feel virtuous to be "riding for the cause".
Yes. Yes! And food will be in short supply, and most of the population's food source will come from synthetics manufactured in factories -- the dinner selections being a choice between Soylent Blue, Soylent Yellow, or Soylent Green.
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Old 10-13-21, 09:55 AM
  #50  
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Originally Posted by tcs View Post
Fun fact: multi-gearing predates the safety bicycle.

That is a fun fact! Care to explain? How do you have multiple gears without being geared?

Not challenging you, by the way, I just honestly don't know what you're referring to.

Last edited by livedarklions; 10-13-21 at 10:06 AM.
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