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Predictions about upcoming new bike tech

Old 10-13-21, 02:55 PM
  #76  
livedarklions
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Originally Posted by Riveting View Post
What do you call a fly on a bike?.....A roll.

What do you call a fly with no wings?....A walk.
What do you call a fly with no wings?....A zipper
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Old 10-13-21, 03:49 PM
  #77  
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Originally Posted by blacknbluebikes View Post
Seems to me the great divide is between "Problems looking for a solution" versus "Solutions looking for a problem." For example, flats are a real problem, so solve that and get me out the of the "pump it to xx psi" or "tubeless yada yada." Materials science moving faster than ever, pneumatic tires should be gone (yes, see NASA tire, maybe). Accidents with automobiles. Real problem. Bike doesn't fit that person properly, so can it recommend the proper adjustments itself? All things to ensure, or even preserve, a good experience. Motorized this/that, lighted this/that, minor storage? Solutions searching for a problem.
It's interesting to go back and read reviews of emerging tech years later. In 2009 when Shimano released Dura Ace Di2, James Huang wrote about it in Bike Radar. His review starts out with:

“A solution to a problem that doesn’t exist.” “Unnecessary.” “A marketing gimmick.” Those are lines offered time and again by armchair critics of Shimano’s new Dura-Ace Di2 electronic drivetrain https://www.bikeradar.com/reviews/co...ission-review/

Electronic shifting is totally unnecessary and didn't solve anything. It's also really cool and works amazingly well. People have been shifting gears just fine for decades without motors, but now in 2021 electronic shifting occupies a major chunk of the high-end groupset market, and the two highest end groupsets from Shimano have completely ditched mechanical shifting altogether. The revolution only took 12 years.

A similar argument could be made for GPS units. Who needs em? Just ride and if you get lost, stop and ask for directions or bring a map. You don't need power output, cadence or percent grade to ride a bike, right?

The point of this thread, as I understand it, is to discuss/predict what new technology will emerge and become commonplace on bikes in 10 years. It's likely that much of the bike tech that evolves over the next decade is not actually solving problems.
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Old 10-13-21, 04:57 PM
  #78  
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How about electronic shift components that are programmable to index any cog spacing? One derailleur/shifter for 6,7,8,9,10,11,12, etc.
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Old 10-13-21, 09:47 PM
  #79  
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Originally Posted by Rdmonster69 View Post
I think it's a pretty cool feature on my Domane. The items I carry in it could easily fit in my pack but..... It is a cool concept and the bits bag allows a flat kit/tool to be easily carried so that is a plus It is pretty well executed in its design as well. . What it has allowed me to do is carry stuff for my skinny tire tubed bike in my backpack as I always did and a larger tube in the compartment with an inflator set up and tire levers for an emergency tube install on my tubeless set up should I need it.. That alone makes it a plus in my book but not exactly a selling point if you know what I mean.
I agree it's definitely a plus. Like if I have to choose between two exactly same bikes, parts, manufacturer, price except for one having tube storage, I'll choose the one with tube storage.

But if I have to get a steel tour bike, wouldn't mind not having such feature.
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Old 10-13-21, 11:28 PM
  #80  
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Originally Posted by livedarklions View Post
That is a fun fact! Care to explain? How do you have multiple gears without being geared?
Gearing linkages of greater complexity than a crankset strapped to a wheel existed before the safety bicycle.
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Old 10-14-21, 07:26 AM
  #81  
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Originally Posted by msu2001la View Post
It's interesting to go back and read reviews of emerging tech years later. In 2009 when Shimano released Dura Ace Di2, James Huang wrote about it in Bike Radar. His review starts out with:

“A solution to a problem that doesn’t exist.” “Unnecessary.” “A marketing gimmick.” Those are lines offered time and again by armchair critics of Shimano’s new Dura-Ace Di2 electronic drivetrain https://www.bikeradar.com/reviews/co...ission-review/

Electronic shifting is totally unnecessary and didn't solve anything. It's also really cool and works amazingly well. People have been shifting gears just fine for decades without motors, but now in 2021 electronic shifting occupies a major chunk of the high-end groupset market, and the two highest end groupsets from Shimano have completely ditched mechanical shifting altogether. The revolution only took 12 years.

A similar argument could be made for GPS units. Who needs em? Just ride and if you get lost, stop and ask for directions or bring a map. You don't need power output, cadence or percent grade to ride a bike, right?

The point of this thread, as I understand it, is to discuss/predict what new technology will emerge and become commonplace on bikes in 10 years. It's likely that much of the bike tech that evolves over the next decade is not actually solving problems.

OK, now do all of the supposedly emerging tech that really went nowhere over the years. Automatic shifting, shaft drives, and solid tires, to name a few.

I don't know anyone who poo-pooed the idea of GPS, the problem there wasn't the perception of usefulness, just the lack of understanding that implementing it on small, inexpensive portable devices would soon become possible.

There's marketing to solve a problem, but there's also better mousetrap solutions--Di2 is a better mousetrap, a better solution to a problem that's already been solved. What's been happening is the cost of the electronics have been dropping sufficiently to make this refinement appealing to a wider number of consumers.

The "solution in search of a problem" discussion on this thread seems primarily directed at ABS, and I think it's apt in that particular case. ABS is designed to prevent a type of uncontrolled skid that just doesn't likely happen on a human-powered bike. It's not a sexy feature like Di2 where there's instant feedback on how much of a difference it makes.

If I was going to point to a tech that I really have been caught by surprise on, it's disc brakes on road bikes. I still don't get that.
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Old 10-14-21, 01:09 PM
  #82  
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Originally Posted by livedarklions View Post
The "solution in search of a problem" discussion on this thread seems primarily directed at ABS, and I think it's apt in that particular case. ABS is designed to prevent a type of uncontrolled skid that just doesn't likely happen on a human-powered bike.
Wait until all bikes have hydro discs, and Joe Couchrider hops on his 37-pound "stunt bike" with a backwards fork and grabs the brakes when he gets scared going downhill too fast.

ABS will be a thing then, for sure. A stupid thing for bad riders ... so it goes ....
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Old 10-14-21, 01:54 PM
  #83  
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Originally Posted by livedarklions View Post
If I was going to point to a tech that I really have been caught by surprise on, it's disc brakes on road bikes. I still don't get that.
I would not have thought that I would get it either but I have two decent bikes. One with new old stock Dura Ace (9700's I think) rim brakes and a new bike with Hydraulic disks. I'm not "awed" by the power, modulation etc. of disks but I have to admit that they are more consistent and powerful. I ride both bikes frequently and while I do not feel under served by the rim brakes the disks on the new bike feel the same no matter the conditions and I like the feel at the lever better than the rim brakes. They are quite new still so the performance may decline especially if not maintained properly. Maybe its just my perception and I was not on the bandwagon when they started up with them for road bikes but I gotta say. I'm a fan.
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Old 10-14-21, 02:03 PM
  #84  
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I hate to say it but I think e-bikes will become the norm; so much so that "bike" will mean "e-bike," and meat motor bicycles will be called "velocipedes."
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Old 10-14-21, 03:52 PM
  #85  
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Originally Posted by DorkDisk View Post
... "bike" will mean "e-bike," and meat motor bicycles will be called "velocipedes."
pedal-bike
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Old 10-14-21, 07:54 PM
  #86  
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Originally Posted by Maelochs View Post
Wait until all bikes have hydro discs, and Joe Couchrider hops on his 37-pound "stunt bike" with a backwards fork and grabs the brakes when he gets scared going downhill too fast.

ABS will be a thing then, for sure. A stupid thing for bad riders ... so it goes ....
What is a Stunt Bike?
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Old 10-14-21, 08:00 PM
  #87  
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Originally Posted by Kapusta View Post
What is a Stunt Bike?
Walmart's best!
“Enjoy cycling: Stunt bikes are very suitable for mountain, wasteland, and effective on roads, trails, cities, beaches or snow.”
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Old 10-14-21, 09:23 PM
  #88  
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Originally Posted by DorkDisk View Post
I hate to say it but I think e-bikes will become the norm; so much so that "bike" will mean "e-bike," and meat motor bicycles will be called "velocipedes."
but only for people who live on the ground floor, or have a garage, or a man-servant... don't think there are chains thick enough in NYC to keep an e-bike overnight...
LOL
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Old 10-15-21, 06:10 AM
  #89  
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So ..... @cyclezen has just invented the folding mini-e-bike which collapses down to something the size of a heavy carry-on suitcase and is perfect for negotiating urban environments.
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Old 10-15-21, 06:38 AM
  #90  
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There really isn't much left to invent, however much of the cool (and useful) stuff remain out of reach on account of price. Id much rather have affordable DI2, power meter, high res GPS device, etc. than yet more unobtanium gadgets,
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Old 10-15-21, 06:45 AM
  #91  
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Originally Posted by Maelochs View Post
Walmart's best!
“Enjoy cycling: Stunt bikes are very suitable for mountain, wasteland, and effective on roads, trails, cities, beaches or snow.”

Is it better for riding in an adult wasteland or a teenage wasteland?
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Old 10-15-21, 06:56 AM
  #92  
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Originally Posted by Maelochs View Post
Walmart's best!
“Enjoy cycling: Stunt bikes are very suitable for mountain, wasteland, and effective on roads, trails, cities, beaches or snow.”
Ah, yes. I almost forgot about the emerging trend of rigid full suspension bikes with 26" 700c wheels with wide, skinny slick knobbies and and taped-over brake levers.

Those are going to be all the rage.

Last edited by Kapusta; 10-15-21 at 08:09 AM.
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Old 10-15-21, 06:59 AM
  #93  
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Originally Posted by BFisher View Post
How about electronic shift components that are programmable to index any cog spacing? One derailleur/shifter for 6,7,8,9,10,11,12, etc.
Campagnolo did that years ago. It was not even necessary to re-program anything. The shifter simply worked with whatever derailleur and cogset you had.

No one noticed. Few if any here will have a clue what I am talking about. The product was on the market for ten years. Whizbang gollygee doodads from fishing reel manufacturers dominated. Sales always trumps function.
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Old 10-15-21, 07:28 AM
  #94  
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I predict much change for the sake of change. More old becoming new again. Technological complications and expense with little benefit for most riders. Things that will be much more difficult for the average DIY mechanic to deal with.

I'd settle for normal guy gearing options. What percentage of cyclists can, do, or have a need to take full advantage of 50/11 gearing? I'd rather see a move toward the lower end. I would have an occasional need for something like 28 front and 40 back on a road or gravel bike. 90% of the riders I see would lose nothing if standard gearing went to a 40/28 crank with a 10-40 cassette. On flat land at a cadence of 100, that will give you about 32 MPH. Unless you are a racer, that should serve you quite well. For a regular guy like me, the low end gearing would be very useful when I hit the mountains and hilly terrain. The industry needs new and it needs change. This is a direction with tangible benefits with almost no downside. It may catch on.
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Old 10-15-21, 08:02 AM
  #95  
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Originally Posted by Paul Barnard View Post
I predict much change for the sake of change. More old becoming new again. Technological complications and expense with little benefit for most riders. Things that will be much more difficult for the average DIY mechanic to deal with.

I'd settle for normal guy gearing options. What percentage of cyclists can, do, or have a need to take full advantage of 50/11 gearing? I'd rather see a move toward the lower end. I would have an occasional need for something like 28 front and 40 back on a road or gravel bike. 90% of the riders I see would lose nothing if standard gearing went to a 40/28 crank with a 10-40 cassette. On flat land at a cadence of 100, that will give you about 32 MPH. Unless you are a racer, that should serve you quite well. For a regular guy like me, the low end gearing would be very useful when I hit the mountains and hilly terrain. The industry needs new and it needs change. This is a direction with tangible benefits with almost no downside. It may catch on.
I think your observation about the lack of need for 50/11 gearing (and the need for a 50t ring in general) for most folks is spot on. It is part of a larger issue, IMO: the fact that most people don't need the paved road racing bikes that have become the default bike for people riding on the road.

However, I think the industry is moving in the right direction on this. Over the past 20 years we went from standard (39/52) to compact (34/50) being the standard. And now 46/30 is becoming more and more common due to the number of "gravel" and "all-road" options.
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Old 10-15-21, 08:06 AM
  #96  
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Originally Posted by livedarklions View Post
Is it better for riding in an adult wasteland or a teenage wasteland?
We're all wasted!
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Old 10-15-21, 08:24 AM
  #97  
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Electronic water bottles that double as personal cleaning devices. The "Bidon Bidet". Electronics will control the flow rate for the various functions.
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Old 10-15-21, 08:33 AM
  #98  
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Originally Posted by livedarklions View Post
Is it better for riding in an adult wasteland or a teenage wasteland?
It depends on whether you're Baba O'Riley or not.
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Old 10-15-21, 08:36 AM
  #99  
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Originally Posted by seypat View Post
It depends on whether you're Baba O'Riley or not.

If riding in a wasteland, I recommend the Baba Bidon Bidet.
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Old 10-15-21, 08:42 AM
  #100  
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Originally Posted by cyclezen View Post
but only for people who live on the ground floor, or have a garage, or a man-servant... don't think there are chains thick enough in NYC to keep an e-bike overnight...
LOL
Yuri
I think the one wheel devices will continue to see a lot of growth in urban areas due to their size and portability.

Otto
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