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Predictions about upcoming new bike tech

Old 10-15-21, 08:56 AM
  #101  
msu2001la
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Originally Posted by Paul Barnard View Post
I predict much change for the sake of change. More old becoming new again. Technological complications and expense with little benefit for most riders. Things that will be much more difficult for the average DIY mechanic to deal with.

I'd settle for normal guy gearing options. What percentage of cyclists can, do, or have a need to take full advantage of 50/11 gearing? I'd rather see a move toward the lower end. I would have an occasional need for something like 28 front and 40 back on a road or gravel bike. 90% of the riders I see would lose nothing if standard gearing went to a 40/28 crank with a 10-40 cassette. On flat land at a cadence of 100, that will give you about 32 MPH. Unless you are a racer, that should serve you quite well. For a regular guy like me, the low end gearing would be very useful when I hit the mountains and hilly terrain. The industry needs new and it needs change. This is a direction with tangible benefits with almost no downside. It may catch on.
Gearing has definitely gotten lower over the last 10-20 years, at least for normal non-professional racing bikes. My first road bike (2003) had a 53/39 with an 8sp 11-25 cassette. I recall this gearing being pretty standard on most road bikes in that era and it's probably the same gearing that pro racers were running. Back then, a "compact" climbing setup would've been a 50/34 and/ an 11-28.

Today most 11sp race oriented road bikes are sold with 50/34 cranks and 11-30 rear cassettes. The pros are still running 52-53T front rings, but there seems to be some acknowledgement that most recreational riders do not need this tall of gearing. The increased cassette sizes also mean that 11-34 is a fairly common option for standard 11sp groupsets.

I was surprised to see the new 12sp Ultegra only available in 52/36 and 50/34 options. I thought for sure they'd have a lower version, but I guess Shimano sees GRX as filling that market. GRX is currently available as a 48/31 or 46/30, so plenty of low end gearing available there. SRAM's AXS "Wide" currently has a 43/30 with a 10-36 cassette, so this is getting pretty close to what you suggest above (40/28 and 10-40 cassette).
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Old 10-15-21, 09:05 AM
  #102  
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Bubblegum handlebar tape.
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Old 10-15-21, 09:05 AM
  #103  
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Flavored bike lube.

Cross pollination with another industry.
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Old 10-15-21, 09:32 AM
  #104  
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Originally Posted by DorkDisk View Post
Flying bicycles.
I want one!

On anti locking brakes.. Not for me. I still flip my bike upside down to change the tube. So hydraulic brakes are out.
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Old 10-15-21, 09:52 AM
  #105  
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Originally Posted by ofajen View Post
I think the one wheel devices will continue to see a lot of growth in urban areas due to their size and portability.

Otto
Maybe, but the only people I see on these are young men. They look super dangerous and I don't think I've ever seen a woman or anyone over the age of 30 on one. These seem to be relegated to the skateboard market. Part of this may be that they're still pretty heavy and difficult/impossible to securely lock up, so if you stop at a store or restaurant or something you've got this 25-30lb lump with a dirty rubber tire that you've got to carry around. I have a hard time seeing these ever being anything more than a niche product as currently designed.

I think electric scooters have far more appeal, although they have downsides as well. Maybe these devices will all be significantly lighter and more portable in the future?
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Old 10-15-21, 10:04 AM
  #106  
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Originally Posted by locolobo13 View Post
I want one!

On anti locking brakes.. Not for me. I still flip my bike upside down to change the tube. So hydraulic brakes are out.
I do this on my hydro equipped road bike all the time with no issues.
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Old 10-15-21, 11:26 AM
  #107  
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Originally Posted by Rdmonster69 View Post
I do this on my hydro equipped road bike all the time with no issues.
I dunno. Every time I flip my car all kinds of fluids leak out.

Been avoiding hydraulic brakes.
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Old 10-15-21, 11:44 AM
  #108  
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-ABS is in the works already, should be norm on hydro discs within 15 years

-Shimano keeps trickling Di2 a bit more. I feel electronic shifting to facilitate at least cheaper bike assembly and reduce other parts cost possible once the patents wear off and costs plummet like they should. I mean, if you can get hvac actuators for $65 for your house a freaking derailleur should be cake also. It's just a patent and marketing thing now.

-Road tubeless becoming the norm once they really nail the standard.

-Probably UCI illegal, but in triathlon I see "active aero" becoming a thing. Helmets or other bike tech like wheels where the fairings can move with the yaw angle of the wind.

-More combined helmet tech with integrated lighting of some kind that you plug in to recharge. Already here, but becoming the norm on all instead of a few.
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Old 10-15-21, 04:07 PM
  #109  
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more durable tubes with no penalties.
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Old 10-16-21, 12:26 AM
  #110  
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Analog bikes will continue to follow the fad and bust of the latest bike type.

E bikes will get more complicated. All the gadgets youíre imagining will come to pass and then get cheaper. They will diverge to a parallel dealer network and e bike specific brands and components though they will maintain corporate association with bike brands since thatís their origin and theyíve still got more in common with bikes than motorcycles. (By which I mean theyíre still made of parts from bike companies.) This will continue as long as licenses are not required. If the current industry learns the lessons of the moped fad theyíll keep the power low.

The main styles of e bikes will be long travel mountain bikes and commuter bikes. People who want power to achieve their goals. Baloney like drop bar road e bikes will fade.

Last edited by Darth Lefty; 10-16-21 at 12:29 AM.
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Old 10-16-21, 07:28 AM
  #111  
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Antilock brakes happened in the 1960s. Yes, there are analog ways to do that. Dropped because the concept was plain wrong. Which won’t matter once the marketing machinery cranks up.
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Old 10-16-21, 09:46 AM
  #112  
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Originally Posted by BFisher View Post
How about electronic shift components that are programmable to index any cog spacing? One derailleur/shifter for 6,7,8,9,10,11,12, etc.
There was an Italian company that came out with a version of this a few years back.

Basically, it violates the planned-obsolescence principle. How can they make you buy a new 13 speed shifters if the old shifter and derailleurs can work just fine with the new cassette?
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Old 10-16-21, 10:33 AM
  #113  
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ABS by the way is absolutely a given for e bikes. Itís a mystery to me why itís not already here especially on commuter e bikes. Itís proliferated on motorcycles, even small ones, where itís not amazingly complicated and expensive, itís just a $500 option, a dingus between the front caliper and lever and sensors that watch marks on the rotors. It prevents crashes. Itís not like a car where it just keeps you pointed straight and reduces distance. If you lock up the front tire of a bike in panic you are going to crash, either OTB or low side. If you have ABS you get all the braking the chassis can manage without crashing just by pulling the lever as hard as you can.
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Old 10-16-21, 03:52 PM
  #114  
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Originally Posted by BFisher View Post
How about electronic shift components that are programmable to index any cog spacing? One derailleur/shifter for 6,7,8,9,10,11,12, etc.
https://archercomponents.com
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Old 10-16-21, 05:14 PM
  #115  
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Originally Posted by Germany_chris View Post
Well, there ya go!
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Old 10-17-21, 08:21 AM
  #116  
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Originally Posted by msu2001la View Post
Gearing has definitely gotten lower over the last 10-20 years, at least for normal non-professional racing bikes. My first road bike (2003) had a 53/39 with an 8sp 11-25 cassette. I recall this gearing being pretty standard on most road bikes in that era and it's probably the same gearing that pro racers were running. Back then, a "compact" climbing setup would've been a 50/34 and/ an 11-28.

Today most 11sp race oriented road bikes are sold with 50/34 cranks and 11-30 rear cassettes. The pros are still running 52-53T front rings, but there seems to be some acknowledgement that most recreational riders do not need this tall of gearing. The increased cassette sizes also mean that 11-34 is a fairly common option for standard 11sp groupsets.

I was surprised to see the new 12sp Ultegra only available in 52/36 and 50/34 options. I thought for sure they'd have a lower version, but I guess Shimano sees GRX as filling that market. GRX is currently available as a 48/31 or 46/30, so plenty of low end gearing available there. SRAM's AXS "Wide" currently has a 43/30 with a 10-36 cassette, so this is getting pretty close to what you suggest above (40/28 and 10-40 cassette).

I have a hunch manufacturers will come to their senses. Even with 30 front 34 rear, you are still turning nearly 24 inches. That may be fine for smooth gravel, but if you find yourself on a rougher patch (which steeper parts of gravel roads and trails often are) the average rider will appreciate gearing that gets down to the 20" mark. So will riders on moderate grades when they are deep into a ride and tired. So will tourists.

They'll tout the "new" gearing options as groundbreaking for the "regular" rider.
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Old 10-17-21, 04:37 PM
  #117  
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prediction for upcoming new tech....

OBD2 standards for electronics that are equipped as production or an add-on by the OEM/certified bicycle retailer. Soon after, a subscription-based communications system (onstar) will be rolled out.

"Help! I've fallen & can't get muah e-bicycle off me!"
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Old 10-17-21, 05:09 PM
  #118  
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Originally Posted by Troul View Post
prediction for upcoming new tech....

OBD2 standards for electronics that are equipped as production or an add-on by the OEM/certified bicycle retailer. Soon after, a subscription-based communications system (onstar) will be rolled out.

"Help! I've fallen & can't get muah e-bicycle off me!"
Not that far fetched, unfortunately. My Garmin already has crash alert SMS (OnStar like-ish) an anti-theft alarm paired to my phone and tons of stats.
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Old 10-18-21, 09:12 AM
  #119  
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I predict more and more OEM-sourced parts on bikes (and with that will come proprietary designs). It's already happening to some extent, but I think that in the future we (consumers will not have the ability to upgrade things like stems, seat posts, seats or handlebars unless it's a design made specifically for that bike (and therefore licensed by that manufacturer). These designs will continue to become more integrated into the frame and overall bike design.

This might extend to electronics as well. Rather than an aftermarket Garmin or Wahoo head unit attached to handlebars, bikes might come with an integrated screen built into the handlebar/stem design that connects to a smartphone and built-in wheel/cadence/power sensors on the bike.

I do also wonder if the era of being able to easily customize a bike by selecting a frameset, wheels, components, finishing kit, seat and handlebars all from various manufacturers may eventually come to an end, especially the designs of these parts become more integrated into the frame design. It's getting increasingly hard to find top tier bikes with standard seat posts, for instance. Companies like Specialized have already done this with wheels, seats, etc - will they take it a step further and develop their own S-works drivetrains? Will companies like this always rely on SRAM and Shimano to provide parts for their flagship products?
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Old 10-18-21, 11:19 AM
  #120  
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What's wrong with me? I'm prefectly happy with my bike (which was new in 2007) and don't really want anything to change.
I am an out of it, dull-witted clod.
So be it (and if you know who I just quoted I will be pleased).
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Old 10-18-21, 11:34 AM
  #121  
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Originally Posted by Broctoon View Post
Iím not looking to start a debate about the pros and cons of specific novel features or of bike evolution generally. Iím just imagining what a state of the art bicycle might look like ten years from now, whether we feel good, bad, or indifferent about it.

Hereís what I think is coming (along with my prediction on each featureís likelihood):

- (Very likely) Anti-lock brakes. Should be easy enough with everything going to hydraulic discs. You just need to add some wheel speed sensors, a computer, a little valve and motor on each caliper, and a power source. This might not be a totally pointless feature. Many will argue itís a solution to a problem that doesnít exist--perhaps thatís true. Regardless, I will be surprised if it does not appear in the next several years.

- (Probable) Tire pressure monitoring system. Also quite simple; would follow from technology used on cars for many years. They just need to develop smaller and lighter pressure sensor/transmitter units (probably located on the valve stem), and some software for the cycling computers/smart phones. Youíll never have to wonder how many PSI each tire has, or worry that you might not know when a tire suddenly begins to deflate.

- (Absolutely certain) Smaller, lighter, and more efficient motors for e-bikes. Plus smaller, lighter, and longer lasting batteries as well. Perhaps there will be solar charging on the bike (even something like photovoltaic paint, so the entire frame is effectively a solar panel?) And regenerative braking, so instead of working hard to build up kinetic energy and then throwing it away as friction, you could recover some of that energy to put back into the battery when slowing or stopping.

- (Possibly?) Rear-view camera and cockpit display (probably integrated with the cycling computer, which is already becoming more of a multi-functional display). Garmin Varia radar already gives an audible and visual indication, but it only shows that there is a vehicle (or two or more vehicles) approaching, with a relative indication of their distance and speed. A camera will let the rider remain facing forward and see a lot more detail. Is it a dump truck thatís weaving all over the road and flinging dirt and rocks everywhere? Just a Mini Cooper two lanes to the left? Technology to do this already exists and would just have to be refined/adapted for bikes.

- (Hopefully) Much better bike locks. Better = lighter and smaller but also tougher to defeat, while not becoming outrageously expensive. It seems like lock technology has not progressed very much in the past several decades. There have been little, incremental improvements, but a determined thief can still defeat any lock without much effort. Iíd like to see high tech materials change this situation, so that the limiting factor will become ďhow strong is the structure youíre locking your bike to?Ē

What do you folks think? What predictions would you add to the list?
You have a great imagination and your ideas are interesting. I am of the category that anti-lock brakes is a solution looking for a problem on bikes. That said, I just saw a commercial for a Dyson vacuum cleaner that detects the size of the dust particles being swept up and displays the info. So, anti-lock brakes just might appear! Tire pressure 100% yes. Rear view camera -already available and on Amazon. Better locks absolutely see secure quick stop bike lock for an example (www securequickstop dot com).

My prediction - better clothing solutions. Biking is plagued by a warm up period where layers of clothes are needed followed by a plateau where less clothing is needed. I foresee a time where clothing will incorporate a cooling system that takes air in, circulates it across your body and exhausts the moist air. I will have automatic vents to increase or decrease the flow to maintain body temp and moisture level. Second product - toe clips that sense speed and automatically release at slow speed. Third product is radar to warn of impending impact (with a moving car). Last product is a street sweeper attachment for a bike to allow you to clean bike lanes as you ride. My experience is cities do a sh*tty job of maintaining bike lanes. With a street sweeper for a bike you could ride the route sweeping once every couple months and keep it clear.
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Old 10-18-21, 11:58 AM
  #122  
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Front facing pothole avoidance radar with proprietary servo actuators embedded in the head tube to gently nudge the front wheel around the hole. It will be controlled by a head unit that will also take data from a rear facing Varia or similar competing device to calculate the amount of swerve necessary without pointing the rider directly in front of that garbage truck that is so anxious to pass.
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Old 10-18-21, 12:00 PM
  #123  
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Originally Posted by mwaldin View Post
Third product is radar to warn of impending impact (with a moving car). Last product is a street sweeper attachment for a bike to allow you to clean bike lanes as you ride. My experience is cities do a sh*tty job of maintaining bike lanes. With a street sweeper for a bike you could ride the route sweeping once every couple months and keep it clear.
Shouldn't the audible warnings (and automated braking/evasion) be installed on the car, not the bike?
Also shouldn't the bike lane sweeper be parked at public works' garage, and not in your own?

Both of these suggestions are a bit dystopian and depressing.
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Old 10-18-21, 12:03 PM
  #124  
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A state of the art bicycle is a velomobile. Even bicycles are better if recumbent and partly streamlined. I really hope that we will have components designed for trikes instead of adapted from bicycles. A rear derailleur should look much like a front one, with the chain take-up handled by a separate mechanism that also helps with chain routing and allows much more variation, so we can use big, efficient chainwheels. Being enclosed, it can be cheap and ugly without hurting performance. It should probably include an oil bath, and keep it off the rider. Wheels should be dished like car wheels to make more room for both brakes and suspension. Tires should be radial-belted. Pedals should automatically adjust to grip any shoe and support your heel.
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Old 10-18-21, 12:47 PM
  #125  
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Re-edited - my revision attempt crashed.

A state of the art bicycle is a velomobile. Even bicycles are better if recumbent and partly streamlined. I really hope that we will have components designed for trikes instead of adapted from bicycles. A rear derailleur should work much like a front one, with the chain take-up handled by a separate mechanism that also helps with chain routing and allows much more variation, so we can use big, efficient chainwheels. Being enclosed, it can be cheap and ugly without hurting performance. It should probably include an oil bath, and keep it off the rider. Wheels should be dished like car wheels to make more room for both brakes and suspension and reduce weight. All three should be quick-change and identical, so a spare can be carried. Tires should be radial-belted, but skinny, with excellent suspension. Pedals should automatically adjust to grip any shoe and support your heel. The electric boosters should go on the front wheels for 3WD. There may be solar panels that extend when parked. Protection might be primarily electronic, requiring thieves to start by deploying a Faraday cage, unseen. Models should be available with enclosed luggage space/child seats. Design sketches, more details, and other support is available for all of these features.
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