Branko D

Everything which isn't classical physics is probabilistic in nature. Calling it educated guessing is just silly.

In any case, it turns out you don't need to do some 20 minute FTP test on a trainer. Using a critical power and W' model, based on several shorter all out efforts both can be determined pretty accurately (Intervals.icu is a great tool which will do it automatically for you). Critical power highly correlates to FTP, typically a few % higher - adjust downwards to taste and presto.
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The good thing about the model is that I can, say, predict the pacing strategy and performance for a 10 minute climb and it comes out very accurately, as well as pace long efforts if you have a bit of experience how it relates to what you can sustain for a long time.

As for my curves, my 10 minute maximum effort comes out as 4.38 W/kg, 24 minute maximum as 3.86 W/kg, 1hr 20m maximum as 3.4 W/kg. If I had an exactly hour long hill climb I'd try for something halfway between the two. Ironman / ultra endurance pace as 2.77 W/kg, bang on 200W. That's pretty typical.

If I had to regularly do 1hr at full gas on a trainer to determine my FTP, I would probably douse my bikes with gasoline, set them on fire, and quit cycling. Few researchers do that, too, because you have to find actually willing subjects nowadays 😉

PeteHski

FTP and 1 hour power are not necessarily the same thing. How long individuals can hold their FTP varies quite widely (often quoted as a range of 30-70 mins TTE). So whether you test yourself over 20 mins or 60 mins is really just as much of an estimate of your true FTP. Now if 1 hour power happens to be critical to your main race events, then it makes sense to test your power over 1 hour. But for many people that might not be particularly useful. Ramp tests are perhaps less accurate in estimating true FTP, but they are useful because you don't need a whole lot of recovery time afterward. So they are more practical to throw into a training plan than a full-on 1 hour hammerfest, which might take several days to properly recover from. The 20 min tests are a fairly good compromise too. You say it takes 66 mins, but only 20 mins is flat out. If you do a 1 hour test you are still going to warm-up properly for it right? So that would be more like 90 mins total, with 60 mins balls out.

Also you state that the only thing that matters is your 1 hour power. Well that's not true for a sprinter, or a crit racer, or a 1-day classics racer, or a stage road racer. If your power curve is relatively weak at the 1 min and 5 min points, then you are going to get dropped anyway.

GhostRider62

Collin......I have read at Slowtwitch for many years but not a poster. It has mostly a Triathlon focus and therefore many runners turned cyclist who could offer you support. There are two forums I look to for aerodynamics, ST being one of them. Aero is hugely important in cycling. If your cycling interest is mostly Zwift and time trials, ST is a good place for you. If you are interested in road racing or criteriums, not the best place for that. A 180 pound cyclist with 73 ml/kg with a couple years of training would be one big hell of a motor. As a runner, you probably focused on economy/efficiency. Nobody talks much about that in cycling but there are 65 ml/kg world champions and an ex-pro from Norway who couldn't make it on 94 ml/kg. Aside from skills and tactics, your ability to utilize a high fraction of your V02 max and to recover from blindingly hard efforts over and over will determine your success more than raw O2 consumption. ST used to have good contributions from top Physios like Andrew Coggan but the noise over there killed that signal. GL on your journey but get out on the bike and ride, preferably up grades a couple times per week. Find a couple local 4-10 minute hills used by local hammerheads on STRAVA and aim for top 10. Keep lowering your time.

tempocyclist

You asked pretty much the same question last year...

Thoughts on my potential in cycling?

billridesbikes

Probably decent for a recreational cyclist and for fun fast rides, but those numbers aren't going to win any races, even at Cat-4.

If road racing is your intention you're probably too big and heavy anyway, sorry.
Although I'm sure some folks will point out there are taller pros, but they're the exception, you're not. There are one or two Evie Stevens each generation.

Anyway, to do the all out 20min test successfully you have to practice pacing yourself at 95% of your max heart for that long. During the winter months I set aside one day a week for 'FTP' to working on holding an all-out pace for 20+ minutes on the trainer. If there is a nice 25km range time trail in Zwift I'll substitute that for the FTP test. The pacing effort should be similar between the FTP test and a 35~40min TT.

70sSanO

The numbers guys have given you their opinions. But if 15 miles a week is your average, over the past year, I’d say there is little potential.

Most people who really take to cycling can’t get enough of it. It kind of gets in your blood. It has little to do with your ability and more to do with your desire to ride.

Do more miles, faster rides, group/club rides and see if you like it, or just tolerate it.

John

GhostRider62

miguel indurain retired at 81 kg and similar height to OP, he was a pretty good road racer.

What was very unique about Big Mig was his 90 Watts per liter of O2. Most recreational cyclists are in the 65-70 range and most elite cyclists are much more efficient but still in the 75-80 Watts per liter of O2. He did not have a massive VO2 max but being large and super efficient made for a massive motor. I watched him ride away from Lemond going up l'Alpe d'Huez in 1991 and the sound of his breathing reminded me of a thoroughbred race horse. A rider his size is an anomaly but suggesting OP is too big and would fail as a Cat 4 is seriously idiotic. OP would have been a seriously talented collegiate athlete, almost at an elite level. He just needs a couple years with proper training and none of us can predict how far he will go because a high VO2 max is necessary but not sufficient to race at an elite level. Tactics, skill, and ability to suffer when the attacks come are more determining.

Atlas Shrugged

Let's just ignore the supplementation that was prevalent in the era of Miguel Induráin. The day riders like him and other larger riders succeeding are long gone.

msu2001la

I knew this sounded familiar.

Collin - you still need to lose 15lbs and train harder. Finish your FTP test, then come back next year and we'll let you know that you still have no chance at being a successful bike racer.

Singed,
Bike Forums

spelger

then i should be a pro. sadly i am not.

tomato coupe

One year later, the advice is "Lose 15 16 pounds."

GhostRider62

Froome......6'1''

Filippo Ganna ......6'4''

Tony Martin.....6'1

bradley wiggins ......6'3''

You are wrong. Long wrong.

Atlas Shrugged

Miguel Indurain.......92 kg
Froome......66 kg
Filippo Ganna ......82 kg
Tony Martin.....75 kg
Bradley Wiggins ......69 kg

Not even sure how a track cyclist and time trialist like Filippo Ganna makes the list but even then he has a 10kg advantage. But I am sure it was a wonderful memory of days gone by.

70sSanO

Sadly the desire to ride without the physical ability doesn’t work either. But without the desire to ride it will be unrealized potential.

That may also mean that cycling isn’t the right sport for the OP; at least road.

John

GhostRider62

He won the UCI World TT for the last two years.

Clearly, you are clueless. Bye.

Instead of encouraging the OP, you post absolute garbage. Op might lose 8-10 lbs and at 76kg and 425 watts could well compete at a National Level. Oh wait, he would get smoked in a Cat 4 race. I remember a young lad I took under my wings who had similar albeit lower running stats in HS, he made Cat 2 in 5 months and did very well nationally.

tempocyclist

I think it's more the 90+kg weight thing that is "long gone" rather than height. Certainly can't be a competitive GC guy and be that "heavy" these days.

As for the list:

Froome - Certainly not competitive any longer
Ganna - Okay, I'll give you that one. What an engine!
Martin - Now retired
Wiggins - Long time retired

But I'm just jealous because I always wanted to be 6'1" tall, but never even reached the six mark...

GhostRider62

Who is 90+Kg********************???

These riders are all from the last 10 years. Hardly history.

collinullrich

Peace and love, bro! I hope you have a great season of racing (although I'm sure that your bike wouldn't be able to withstand the stomach weight you carry that allows you to rest your phone on while you pick on 21 year-old kids trying to pick up a sport). Cheers! :-)

collinullrich

Definitely am more interested in road cycling than I am time trials or anything of the sort. Just want to get back into a competitive environment and see what I can do.

collinullrich

Ghost, thank you for the glimmer of positivity. I've come to notice that these online forums, similar to LetsRun, are quite toxic in nature. Hopefully someday I will come back to this thread and laugh at the people who chose to pick on a young and inspired kid looking up to them for advice. However, I do want to thank you for your kind words. I am planning on losing weight and definitely know that I have the potential to lose 15-20 pounds healthily.

70sSanO

Have you thought about mountain biking?

John

msu2001la

Wow.

In case it wasn't clear, my post was sarcastic. I'm making fun of the other posters, not you.

shelbyfv

Or gravel racing. No team needed and you don't have to wait until next season.

GhostRider62

I could see you competing nationally. Maybe the Pursuit or maybe 40Km TT. It takes a couple three years to develop from running. You have enormous untapped and unknown potential. Ride up hills. Cheap way to compare is with an AP called Strava. If you take King of Mountains on local climbs, accept you have talent. How high?? Trust me, you have potential. GL

collinullrich

I did not pick up on your sarcasm, apologies. I simply feel like I came to a forum to gauge what others' opinions were and am simply being told that I am "too heavy" to be a good rider. I feel like I'm being attacked around every corner (pun intended). Sincere apologies.

Collin