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Pandemic bike boom is still going strong

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Pandemic bike boom is still going strong

Old 06-01-23, 09:51 AM
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Originally Posted by mstateglfr
Well then, conversation ended since an entry level hybrid costs $30 less than expected.***
Well, it's anecdote. I presented statistics and then I presented anecdote. Do you have anything?
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Old 06-01-23, 10:07 AM
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Originally Posted by mstateglfr
If the boom describes bike sales, this doesnt support the narrative that the boom is still happening. It could be fewer bikes than pre-covid and more $ per bike is being spent.

Im not saying you are wrong, just that this graph only shows spending and inflation has kinda happened since 2020.

Inflation is controlled for by using the 2012 dollars. There could be disproportionate inflation in bike prices (e.g., tariffs, lingering supply chain issues), but that 's a lot of disproportion for that to be the only explanation.
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Old 06-01-23, 10:14 AM
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That data in the graph is a bit bogus. A lot of bike shops are sitting on a lot of bikes that they bought but that they can't sell. I'm hearing it a lot from LBS that I've been in recently. They have bikes in boxes not even put together. So that graph may be indicating bikes that were bought that are now sitting unsold.

Also if you poke around online, a lot of bike companies have slashed prices on bikes to a level near what they were priced in 2019-2020. For instance the bike I purchased in 2020 for $5200 rose all the way up to $7000 by the end of 2022 and is now "on sale" for $5500. That same scenario is now playing out across the entire industry including component parts.

Last edited by prj71; 06-01-23 at 10:21 AM.
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Old 06-01-23, 10:19 AM
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Originally Posted by livedarklions
Inflation is controlled for by using the 2012 dollars. There could be disproportionate inflation in bike prices (e.g., tariffs, lingering supply chain issues), but that 's a lot of disproportion for that to be the only explanation.
Yeah, in my next post I clarified that using 'inflation' in that post was intended to be specific to bike industry and not general economic inflation.
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Old 06-01-23, 10:23 AM
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Originally Posted by scott967
Are e-bikes included in that number? That makes a big difference!

scott s.
.
You make a good point. Those caught on like wildfire the past three years with folks who normally never rode bikes at all and with the downhill mountain bike crowd that became tired of pedaling back to the top.

Take away the e-bikes and that graph is a lot different.
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Old 06-01-23, 10:26 AM
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Originally Posted by prj71
That data in the graph is a bit bogus. A lot of bike shops are sitting on a lot of bikes that they bought but that they can't sell. I'm hearing it a lot from LBS that I've been in recently. They have bikes in boxes not even put together. So that graph may be indicating bikes that were bought that are now sitting unsold.
The foot note on that chart seems to indicate it came from personal spending surveys. It links to here: https://www.bea.gov/itable/national-...ersonal-income

So I don't think it is counting inventory as sales.
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Old 06-01-23, 10:29 AM
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Originally Posted by scott967
Are e-bikes included in that number? That makes a big difference!

scott s.
.
Come to think of it- that could very well be the explanation. E-bike sales are indeed included in that figure. There has been a huge and ongoing boom in e-bikes.
Traditional bike shops that don't sell e-bikes are missing the wave.
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Old 06-01-23, 11:24 AM
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Originally Posted by icemilkcoffee
Come to think of it- that could very well be the explanation. E-bike sales are indeed included in that figure.
Can you link or quote where you got that information? I couldn't find their definition of a "bicycle".
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Old 06-01-23, 12:02 PM
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Originally Posted by Koyote
I sure hope this is an attempt at sarcasm.
Sounds like I failed.
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Old 06-01-23, 12:16 PM
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E bikes are 10x the cost of Walmart bikes. That's where the $$$ are adding up.
All bikes are up 50% the last 5 years. There's $21,000 bikes now.
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Old 06-01-23, 12:35 PM
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Originally Posted by urbanknight
Sounds like I failed.
Glad to hear it.

Given the level of economic illiteracy in this country, I take nothing for granted.
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Old 06-01-23, 12:41 PM
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I'm with @SurferRosa . Everyone always talked about how the Toronto bike market is overpriced but I've been watching the listings there and the used market has stalled. C&V bikes are just sitting and the prices seem to be dropping.
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Old 06-01-23, 12:44 PM
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I wonder how much of the increase is the result of affordable electric bikes. Many of the new bicyclists I see on the roads and on local bike paths are riding e-bikes. There has also been an ongoing interest in mountain and gravel bikes to be able to more safely bicyle without worrying about motor vehicle traffic.
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Old 06-02-23, 08:22 AM
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Originally Posted by mschwett
I wonder how that translates to actual numbers of bikes, wheels, tubes, etc. we’re at $8B of 2012 dollars today ($10.50 in today’s dollars) but were at $6B of 2012 dollars in 2016 ($6.50 in 2016 dollars).

$10.5B vs $6.5B is a big jump - 61% - but how much more expensive is the average bike sold that it was in 2016? I wouldn’t be surprised if it was close to that much more and the number of bikes is actually the same.
My bike (2014 but was the same cost in 2016) is 43% more today. And that's a cheap one.
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Old 06-02-23, 11:06 AM
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Originally Posted by rc5781
I bought my mountain bike pre-pandemic for about $350. Post-pandemic the same bike cost about $700. Currently the same bike costs about $500.
No your bike did not go up that much. Maybe in your mind but no there isn't a low end bike like that, that rose that high. Prices did go up that is true but I have more than extremely high doubts your bike doubled in price. Would love to see the proof but I am sure you will say "the pudding store is out of pudding". To those who might not get it "the proof is in the pudding".

Now say if you bought your bike in the 90s and the equivalent is $700 today I can see that but that is 20-30 years on and irrelevant to this conversation.

In terms of it being anecdotal it is anecdotal, you are just telling us a story and while it may or may not be true there is no evidence to back it up and again it is one bike out of probably hundreds of thousands of different bikes from different brands over the world.

Getting back to the topic at hand the boom is over and has been for a while. People are still buying bikes but nowhere near boom levels. However steadily electric bicycles have been a growing market that has been getting bigger since before the pandemic was a thing. Also tack on the electric mopeds that usually get lumped in with bicycles and you will see growth or at least some higher numbers than pre-pandemic but there is no boom anymore and the idea it is still around is crazy to think about as working in the industry from well before the pandemic till not that long ago I could see not just at the shops I worked at but through talking with other shops and vendors in the industry and looking at industry news that things were not booming. Certainly not doing poorly but not as well as we would all like.
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Old 06-02-23, 11:07 AM
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No need for your personal anecdotes, folks!

Our resident eggheads will speculate using their own.
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Old 06-02-23, 11:44 AM
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Originally Posted by Fredo76
No need for your personal anecdotes, folks!

Our resident eggheads will speculate using their own.
Right on! Those eggheads are so silly.

By the way, I once won a pile of money by betting on 14 Black at the Roulette table. So that proves that 14 Black is always a great bet!
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Old 06-02-23, 11:53 AM
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Read only a few comments from page one.

1) the chart is in 2012 dollars. So inflation has been removed.
2) If you can bought a bike once during the pandemic, I don't think the accessories you purchased in the years after total per year to be the same as the bike purchase. So $8billion in sales in early 2020 was maintained into 2023 were all new bike sales as compared to $6 billion in 2019.
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Old 06-02-23, 12:03 PM
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Originally Posted by Koyote

By the way, I once won a pile of money by betting on 14 Black at the Roulette table. So that proves that 14 Black is always a great bet!
Old news, everybody knows that.
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Old 06-02-23, 12:07 PM
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Originally Posted by BillyD
Old news, everybody knows that.
It was a trick. There is no 14 Black on a roulette wheel.
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Old 06-02-23, 12:13 PM
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Originally Posted by Koyote
It was a trick. There is no 14 Black on a roulette wheel.

Even if there was, 14 Red would be faster.
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Old 06-04-23, 09:52 AM
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This just means bikes are more expensive.
How about a graph of units sold ?
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Old 06-04-23, 05:38 PM
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Originally Posted by grantelmwood
How about a graph of units sold ?
How about it?
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Old 06-05-23, 04:42 AM
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Originally Posted by grantelmwood
This just means bikes are more expensive.

Or not. It could be a combination of factors.
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