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when will bike boom end?

Old 07-08-14, 06:03 AM
  #1  
mustang1
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when will bike boom end?

1. When will current bike boom end?
2. Why did the last bike boom end?
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Old 07-08-14, 06:45 AM
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Reference

This Wiki author believes that the 70's bike boom ended in 1975:

Bike boom - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The current bike boom will end in February 2016, just after the Christmas sales.
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Old 07-08-14, 07:10 AM
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If the cost of oil/ gas keeps climbing the bike boom may continue for sometime. The is a direct correlation from bicycle sales to the cost of the fuel that most motor vehicles run on.
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Old 07-08-14, 07:34 AM
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I really see not end for quite a while. Many baby boomer are comming on line riding bikes and trikes. There are millions of them, and they unlike their parents are more into exercise. Bikes fill that need. Also what I have seen here, many are getting into trikes in a big way. Trikes are huge fun, and many baby boomers have physical problems that having a trike just makes sense. You can argue all you want to about DF bikes, but bents and trikes provide the comfort older people want.
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Old 07-08-14, 08:41 AM
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Your question presupposes there is a bike boom. Instead of characterizing the market as in a "boom" state, I'd say the growth in sales generally tracks areas where there's been the most favorable economic conditions and where you have the highest number of people working in high-salary areas, such as finance.

As a rule, cyclists tend to have the "work hard/play hard" philosophy and those type A folks tend to concentrate in certain areas and industries.
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Old 07-08-14, 08:49 AM
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When just housing yourself consumes 100% or more of your pay packet ..
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Old 07-08-14, 10:50 AM
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When the Baby Boomers die off. I read recently that the majority of the growth in bicycle riders is in the 50-75 year old age group.
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Originally Posted by bragi "However, it's never a good idea to overgeneralize."

Last edited by Doohickie; 07-14-14 at 11:02 AM. Reason: I mistakenly said Gen Xers instead of Baby Boomers
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Old 07-08-14, 10:57 AM
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But I keep reading stories that say Gen Xers are driving less. If they aren't riding bikes, it makes me wonder if they just stay home all the time and lead virtual lives.
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Old 07-11-14, 08:10 PM
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WHen there is no longer any cars, there will still be bikes
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Old 07-11-14, 08:29 PM
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Agree. The bike allows anyone to go somewhere up to 8 times faster than walking for the effort of turning the pedals. It can also carry a lot of gear if configured right.
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Old 07-11-14, 08:44 PM
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Originally Posted by Doohickie View Post
When the Gen Xers die off. I read recently that the majority of the growth in bicycle riders is in the 50-75 year old age group.
Many Gen X's are mid 30s and up. AFAIK, the Gen X folk were those born from in the late 60s up to 1980. After them is Gen Y AKA Millennial. They are the ones not buying cars and using public transport/bikes instead. I've read that about the older folks, too. Maybe they just want in on the fun/cheaper transport?

Originally Posted by jon c. View Post
But I keep reading stories that say Gen Xers are driving less. If they aren't riding bikes, it makes me wonder if they just stay home all the time and lead virtual lives.
I've read that they and the Millianials are less likely to drive and more likely to bike or take a bus then earlier gens. Boomers seem to be more into bikes as sport still.

As for when it will end. Gas is expensive and is not going to get any cheaper. So... maybe when they actually build some decent public transport. Even then, bikes fit right in.
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Old 07-11-14, 09:19 PM
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Originally Posted by Doohickie View Post
When the Gen Xers die off. I read recently that the majority of the growth in bicycle riders is in the 50-75 year old age group.
I think you mean boomers, and I've seen the same data that older riders and the most committed riders. Otherwise, I doubt the data substantiates any "boom", sales have been declining...at the risk of using that word once again. My Gen Y & Z kids walk and take mass transit, have only a glancing interest in bikes.

The bike business looks fairly depressing from where I sit, and three LBS have closed in the last few years.
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Old 07-11-14, 09:37 PM
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Originally Posted by mustang1 View Post
1. When will current bike boom end?
2. Why did the last bike boom end?
Although some areas have invested greatly in cycling infrastructure and many areas have considerable local interest.

The current bicycle "boom" ended with a reduction in cycling sales in 2012-2013. I've read that usage has declined by something like 20%. I'd guess that the latest boom was caused by the health minded boomers.... who are now aging past the cycling sport.... hence the decline.
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Old 07-11-14, 10:00 PM
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Originally Posted by katsrevenge View Post
...... As for when it will end. Gas is expensive and is not going to get any cheaper. So... maybe when they actually build some decent public transport. Even then, bikes fit right in.
I am an old man. Please don't take offense but that idea of the "one" fuel... and (mass) transportation as it was thought of in the early part of the LAST century... has almost nothing to do with any possible future. In my lifetime.... I've known several people who took their very first "car ride" as grown adults. I saw the last "steam powered locomotive" roll through [my little home] town. I know full well why "flash-lights" were called that.

The only consistency has always been change. Expecting the world to retroactively revert back to an earlier time.... is just not realistic.

Bicycles have gone from the promised hope of a human powered iron horse. And then... after a brief but glorious golden era.... became children's toys. Then after half a century as basic transportation in impoverished nations and popular toys in the industrialized world bicycles were rediscovered as sporting equipment.

There is a segment of the population that would like to see times... turned back and made simpler. I understand that.
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Old 07-11-14, 10:00 PM
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Originally Posted by Doohickie View Post
When the Gen Xers die off. I read recently that the majority of the growth in bicycle riders is in the 50-75 year old age group.
1939-1964 is more Baby Boomer territory than Gen X.
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Old 07-11-14, 10:28 PM
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Originally Posted by Dave Cutter View Post
I am an old man. Please don't take offense but that idea of the "one" fuel... and (mass) transportation as it was thought of in the early part of the LAST century... has almost nothing to do with any possible future. In my lifetime.... I've known several people who took their very first "car ride" as grown adults. I saw the last "steam powered locomotive" roll through [my little home] town. I know full well why "flash-lights" were called that.

The only consistency has always been change. Expecting the world to retroactively revert back to an earlier time.... is just not realistic.

Bicycles have gone from the promised hope of a human powered iron horse. And then... after a brief but glorious golden era.... became children's toys. Then after half a century as basic transportation in impoverished nations and popular toys in the industrialized world bicycles were rediscovered as sporting equipment.

There is a segment of the population that would like to see times... turned back and made simpler. I understand that.
No offense taken.
Right now there are few workable solutions to fuel a car other than FFs.
And yes, I know about (and love) the idea of electric powered cars such as the Tesla. And, I do think such vehicles have a place in the future. But, such cars require a place to plug in and power up. That means a dedicated infrastructure for them. Outside of a few places, they do not exist. The batteries for such cars require rare earths that are both pricey and, well, rare. As it stands, there is just not enough of this stuff to recreate the American Ideal of two cars in every garage, world-wide. (Not to mention the whole cost factor. Electric cars are still pretty pricey, too pricey for many.)
Unless tech takes a major leap forward fast... I think that in many of the more urban environments there will continue to be a push for more public options.And, I do believe that one of those options will be bike infrastructure. We may never be the Netherlands, but even in my smaller city I see people on them year round, as transportation. And I'm not just talking the 'bums' and the DUI crowd. I'm talking people like me. It's cheaper, it beats sitting in traffic and it's an easy way to get some exercise. My area is cash-strapped but a lot of people still want to build bike lanes. It's telling.
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Old 07-12-14, 08:41 AM
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Originally Posted by leicanthrope View Post
1939-1964 is more Baby Boomer territory than Gen X.
Right, th eGen-Xers are those of us that were told that when the Boomers (tail end of, and immediate post WWII) started retiring we would be able to start real carriers. Unfortunantoy, they never retired; as such, Gen-X is the first american generatoin to preform worse then their parents in almost all financial measures.
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Old 07-12-14, 02:01 PM
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I can't imagine it ending. I just got back into biking purely for fitness. What I forgot was how much fun riding is! I know now that there is no way I can ever stop.
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Old 07-12-14, 03:10 PM
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I've long been fascinated by the '70s Bicycle Boom and have kind of made it a pet study of mine. The Boom officially ended in mid-'74 as retail sales dropped off a cliff while production continued at peak boom rates.

Schwinn produced a detailed 22-page study of the Boom and presented it to its suppliers and Schwinn sales personnel (not dealers) at the annual Sales/Supplier meeting in Feb. '75. According to that document Schwinn built and/or imported just over 2,000 more bikes in '74 than they did in '73, however by the end of '74 nearly 400,000 unsold Schwinn bikes were in dealer inventory and Schwinn also had more than 76,000 unsold imported "Schwinn Approved" (e.g. Le Tour, Voyageur II) bikes in its own warehouses. In addition the industry was simultaneously being hit with the start of the Federal Bicycle Safety Regulations, which went into full effect for '76...

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Old 07-12-14, 03:25 PM
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1990s mtb boom ended when Lance happened.

2000s road bike boom ended when doping happened.

Wonder what's next...

Legal recreational weed in WA and CO would seem to point to another MTB boom.

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Old 07-12-14, 09:23 PM
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Originally Posted by katsrevenge View Post
No offense taken.
Right now there are few workable solutions to fuel a car other than FFs. .
I wasn't aware of any Fossil fuel powered cars? Where are they used? Most cars I've heard of use petrol fuels.... a far cry from Al Gores misuse of a very old term. Actually extensive recent studies have been done... and one known fact is there is NO known connection to any living organism... and any known petro fuel. So... a Fossil Fuel powered car.... no... not likely.

I'd guess since you seem to behind the curve of current events by about a decade.... I'd guess you won't be the first to know of future changing events ether.
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Old 07-13-14, 10:06 PM
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Originally Posted by Dave Cutter View Post
I wasn't aware of any Fossil fuel powered cars? Where are they used? Most cars I've heard of use petrol fuels.... a far cry from Al Gores misuse of a very old term. Actually extensive recent studies have been done... and one known fact is there is NO known connection to any living organism... and any known petro fuel. So... a Fossil Fuel powered car.... no... not likely.

I'd guess since you seem to behind the curve of current events by about a decade.... I'd guess you won't be the first to know of future changing events ether.
So that stuff that ends up being refined and poured into a typical car is not derived from the remains of long dead plants and animals? What is it then, unicorn farts?

Crude oil is the term for "unprocessed" oil, the stuff that comes out of the ground. It is also known as petroleum. Crude oil is a fossil fuel, meaning that it was made natural*ly from decaying plants and animals living in ancient seas millions of years ago -- most places you can find crude oil were once sea beds. Crude oils vary in color, from clear to tar-black, and in viscosity, from water to almost solid.
HowStuffWorks "How Oil Refining Works"


I know of one source that could possibly turn oil into a 'renewable' but the tech is still so young that it takes more or nearly the same amount of energy to make it then what is obtained from it.Other then that, the fossil fuel that is the start of gasoline (and other products) is finite.
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Old 07-13-14, 10:30 PM
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Originally Posted by katsrevenge View Post
So that stuff that ends up being refined and poured into a typical car is not derived from the remains of long dead plants and animals? What is it then, unicorn farts?
Unicorn farts? So you believe in Unicorns too huh? Wow.... might be hard to explain anything too scientific to unicorn believers.

Lots of scientific research has been done since petrol fuels have shown up just about on every heavenly body in the universe. I have no idea what you think is in unicorn farts..... but science knows for sure there is NO living (DNA) products associated with Earths oil.

Last edited by Dave Cutter; 07-14-14 at 06:53 AM.
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Old 07-13-14, 11:00 PM
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Originally Posted by Dave Cutter View Post
Unicorn farts? So you believe in Unicorns too huh? Wow.... might be hard to explain anything to scientific to unicorn believers.

Lots of scientific research has been done since petrol fuels have shown up just about on every heavenly body in the universe. I have no idea what you think is in unicorn farts..... but science knows for sure there is NO living (DNA) products associated with Earths oil.
You must be a trolling. Your rudeness is a lovely tell.
I've heard the theory you are treating as fact. It's just a theory, and one that as of yet, has not born much fruit. Funny that.
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Old 07-14-14, 12:50 AM
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There's a bike boom ? Long time shop near me just went out of business.
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