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Living car free, 5 year predictions

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Living car free, 5 year predictions

Old 02-28-17, 07:01 AM
  #401  
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Originally Posted by Machka View Post
Then why are you waxing eloquent in a 5-year prediction thread?
"Same as it ever was ...
Same as it ever was ...
Same as it ever was ...
Same as it ever was ..."
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Old 02-28-17, 07:31 AM
  #402  
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Originally Posted by tandempower View Post
..Uber, for example, is currently being smeared for sexism, while UAW is attempting to gain power over Tesla. Both these negative campaigns seem to be attempts for automotive traditionalists to subjugate Uber and Tesla to their market control paradigm, so it is hard to predict that autonomous vehicles and car-sharing will gain ground in 5-years if the public/consumers and governments allow traditionalists to undermine the expansion that would make these options more widespread and thus affordable for a broader public.
As Henry pointed out, the workers need a good wage in order to be able to afford the cars. When I have time I might start a thread in P&R on five year socioeconomic predictions. Meanwhile to keep it relevant to LCF, I will go out on a limb and predict that in five years a lot more people will be car free due to a combination of opportunity for some to work from anywhere, and lack of opportunity for some to work at all.

Last edited by cooker; 02-28-17 at 09:45 AM.
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Old 02-28-17, 09:45 AM
  #403  
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Originally Posted by tandempower View Post
I find it so hard to make predictions
And yet, this is the 5 year prediction thread. Do you see the paradox?
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Old 02-28-17, 05:23 PM
  #404  
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Originally Posted by Machka View Post
Then why are you waxing eloquent in a 5-year prediction thread?
Because the obstacles to developments are as relevant to predicting them as are the actual technological advances. We have the technology already to have car-sharing and ride-sharing, but opponents are using political-economic methods to block progress. Progress is also being made toward autonomous vehicles, but there are political-legal battles being fought on that front too. Tesla is a forerunner in autopilot tech, but Detroit is now trying to undermine their efforts by means of UAW unionizing efforts. One would hope these efforts to obstruct progress won't succeed, but the question is what it takes to stop them.

Don't you think predictions for technological progress should be based on predicting the sci-tech advances, and not on political-legal-economic factors?
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Old 02-28-17, 05:36 PM
  #405  
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Originally Posted by cooker View Post
As Henry pointed out, the workers need a good wage in order to be able to afford the cars. When I have time I might start a thread in P&R on five year socioeconomic predictions. Meanwhile to keep it relevant to LCF, I will go out on a limb and predict that in five years a lot more people will be car free due to a combination of opportunity for some to work from anywhere, and lack of opportunity for some to work at all.
I don't know if Ford foresaw the use of technology to reduce economic dependency by doing more things for oneself. On the one hand, I think the Model T is a testament to that, since it was basically designed to be customized and serviced by the user; and it was versatile and could be converted into a tractor, assembly-line/conveyer-belt system, etc. I think Ford assumed people would widely utilized industrial machinery to produce products for trade, though he obviously favored a corporate model in which workers were dependent on management for access to the means of production.

It would be interesting to talk with him today and find out what he thought of life in the 20th century, what developments he would have predicted/expected and which would have surprised him. Although he produced automobiles, I wonder if he wouldn't see the benefit of bicycles as transportation, especially in a world with so many more people than in the 1920s. I think he would consider the bicycle a good everyday vehicle for most people, and he would see the automobile as something to be reserved somewhat to keep roads clearer and avert huge sprawling multilane roads and highways everywhere. Don't get me wrong, I think he would continue to value the use of motors where effective, but I think he would see how people can become overdependent on driving for even the shortest of trips. If anything, I think he wanted to make the motorcar widely available so people could roam the countryside with their families, not for everyone to drive around town all the time and clog up the cities with traffic and sprawl.
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Old 02-28-17, 07:06 PM
  #406  
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Originally Posted by tandempower View Post
We have the technology already to have car-sharing and ride-sharing, but opponents are using political-economic methods to block progress. Progress is also being made toward autonomous vehicles, but there are political-legal battles being fought on that front too. Tesla is a forerunner in autopilot tech, but Detroit is now trying to undermine their efforts by means of UAW unionizing efforts. One would hope these efforts to obstruct progress won't succeed, but the question is what it takes to stop them.

All this talk about obstructing progress sounds more like conspiracy theories and fake news.
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Old 02-28-17, 10:46 PM
  #407  
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Originally Posted by tandempower View Post
Don't you think predictions for technological progress should be based on predicting the sci-tech advances, and not on political-legal-economic factors?
Why? Both affect outcomes so your 5 year predictions or what you think will actually happen should take both into account. I look forward to them. Besides, the social considerations are actually more important than the technical ones. Just because we can make more powerful bombs or better neurotoxins doesn't mean we should, for example.

Last edited by cooker; 02-28-17 at 10:50 PM.
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Old 03-01-17, 05:32 AM
  #408  
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Originally Posted by wolfchild View Post
All this talk about obstructing progress sounds more like conspiracy theories and fake news.
I'm going to start a thread in P&R about UAW's move to unionize Tesla. I wouldn't rule out conspiracy, but you might if you are pro-UAW.

Originally Posted by cooker View Post
Why? Both affect outcomes so your 5 year predictions or what you think will actually happen should take both into account. I look forward to them. Besides, the social considerations are actually more important than the technical ones. Just because we can make more powerful bombs or better neurotoxins doesn't mean we should, for example.
I agree, but I think it confounds predictions when you mix 'can' and 'should' together. I'd rather predict the viability of the technology, and leave the politics of whether that technology will be obstructed to a separate discussion.

The sad thing, however, is that because R&D is focused on eventual repayment for investments, programs are sometimes cut due to political obstructions that lead investors to expect eventual losses when technologies are blocked. So you can predict when a certain technology will be viable, but it could then be aborted from achieving viability. Then we get stuck with the same old dinosaurs dominating the field of possibles.
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Old 03-01-17, 08:16 AM
  #409  
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Originally Posted by tandempower View Post
I agree, but I think it confounds predictions when you mix 'can' and 'should' together. I'd rather predict the viability of the technology, and leave the politics of whether that technology will be obstructed to a separate discussion.
That would be fine if you want to predict what technical breakthroughs applicable to LCF are likely to occur within 5 years, irregardless* of whether they are adopted.















*non-standard word
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Old 03-01-17, 05:30 PM
  #410  
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Originally Posted by cooker View Post
That would be fine if you want to predict what technical breakthroughs applicable to LCF are likely to occur within 5 years, irregardless* of whether they are adopted.
Then the applicable question might be to ask which obstacles to LCF technical breakthroughs will extend beyond the 5 year window for solutions, purely for technical reasons and not reasons related to politics, economics, funding, etc.
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Old 03-01-17, 05:49 PM
  #411  
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Originally Posted by tandempower View Post
Then the applicable question might be to ask which obstacles to LCF technical breakthroughs will extend beyond the 5 year window for solutions, purely for technical reasons and not reasons related to politics, economics, funding, etc.
The question in this thread, is what do you expect will happen within 5 years. Feel free to elaborate on why you think it will happen. Or why it won't happen, for that matter.
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Old 03-01-17, 05:56 PM
  #412  
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Originally Posted by cooker View Post
The question in this thread, is what do you expect will happen within 5 years. Feel free to elaborate on why you think it will happen. Or why it won't happen, for that matter.
Stock market crash, relatively soon. After that, anyone's guess - whatever we make of it. Crisis = opportunity.
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Old 03-02-17, 08:56 AM
  #413  
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Originally Posted by tandempower View Post
Stock market crash, relatively soon.
How will that affect LCF? More people doing it involuntarily?
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Old 03-02-17, 02:35 PM
  #414  
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Originally Posted by cooker View Post
How will that affect LCF? More people doing it involuntarily?
You can't predict what's going to happen because there is a pattern of prediction-reactions that has built up that is part of what's leading to the crash. I.e. in more constructive cultural moments, you can make predictions and people will respond constructively, and that is what builds up economic momentum for various projects. During the asymptote leading up to the crash, however, anything you predict will be challenged with its opposite or some other alternative that undermines it. So if more LCF is predicted, another cash4clunkers will undermine that; if war is predicted, it will be somehow averted; if peaceful adaptation to new economic norms is predicted, war will happen; if someone tries to manipulate the opposition by predicting the opposite of what they actually want, e.g. by predicting war in order to effectuate peace, something weird will happen like there will be peaceful restructuring whose opponents instigate war. Everyone is always trying to control the future and when all the impulses become to strong and conflictual, things start going haywire and no one is able to escape unscathed, hence the inevitability of stock market crash, which markets would otherwise avoid by lowering interest rates, etc.
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Old 03-02-17, 02:51 PM
  #415  
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Originally Posted by tandempower View Post
You can't predict what's going to happen
Again, this is the predictions thread.
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Old 03-02-17, 05:20 PM
  #416  
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Originally Posted by cooker View Post
Again, this is the predictions thread.
Yes, which is why I'm explaining why I predict unpredictability for the moment.
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Old 03-02-17, 05:24 PM
  #417  
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Originally Posted by tandempower View Post
Yes, which is why I'm explaining why I predict unpredictability for the moment.
Well, at least we got your stock market prediction, and I am going to say it is probably relevant to the thread, in that it will probably reduce car ownership if it happens.
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Old 03-02-17, 05:34 PM
  #418  
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Originally Posted by cooker View Post
Well, at least we got your stock market prediction, and I am going to say it is probably relevant to the thread, in that it will probably reduce car ownership if it happens.
I would agree if I didn't still have the image of cash4clunkers and all the other stimulus projects that took the concept of "change we can believe in" and turned it into, "revamping economic growth so people can stop worrying about change and just go on buying the things they have in the past, like cars, insurance, and gasoline."
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Old 03-02-17, 06:01 PM
  #419  
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Originally Posted by cooker View Post
Well, at least we got your stock market prediction, and I am going to say it is probably relevant to the thread, in that it will probably reduce car ownership if it happens.

The last stock market plunge around 2008-2009 didn't do much to reduce car ownership...Is that what you and tandempower really want ??...You guys want to see another great depression where people loose everything ??...I think you guys are nuts.
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Old 03-02-17, 06:19 PM
  #420  
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Originally Posted by wolfchild View Post
The last stock market plunge around 2008-2009 didn't do much to reduce car ownership...Is that what you and tandempower really want ??...You guys want to see another great depression where people loose everything ??...I think you guys are nuts.
Who says that's what I want? LOL at you for always coming up with your own interpretations of whatever I post.
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Old 03-02-17, 06:20 PM
  #421  
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crash = +LCFrs

Originally Posted by cooker View Post
Well, at least we got your stock market prediction, and I am going to say it is probably relevant to the thread, in that it will probably reduce car ownership if it happens.
>> actually it could be relevant to LCF ... QUICKSILVER was a movie about a floor trader who misjudged a market trend and lost his job when a market drop wiped him out and then he was so broke that he was living car free and then he became a LCF bike messenger so if the market crashes wi the next 5 years it may be wise to predict that there will be a marked increase in the number of $$$ managers LCF other than that i cannot connect the 2
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Old 03-02-17, 06:22 PM
  #422  
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Originally Posted by jack pot View Post
>> actually it could be relevant to LCF ... QUICKSILVER was a movie about a floor trader who misjudged a market trend and lost his job when a market drop wiped him out and then he was so broke that he was living car free and then he became a LCF bike messenger so if the market crashes wi the next 5 years it may be wise to predict that there will be a marked increase in the number of $$$ managers LCF other than that i cannot connect the 2
Those stock traders are already pretty much done.
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Old 03-03-17, 01:43 PM
  #423  
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Originally Posted by wolfchild View Post
The last stock market plunge around 2008-2009 didn't do much to reduce car ownership...Is that what you and tandempower really want ??...You guys want to see another great depression where people loose everything ??...I think you guys are nuts.
It's not a question of wanting it or not. It's a question of understanding why/how markets grow and why they stop growing and then recede. Then it's a question of seeing how governments and private individuals/businesses engage in economic/financial activities that attempt to keep them artificially inflated, and then how those manipulations, which are essentially economic/financial lies, build up to a point of general insanity where it is no longer possible to accurately do business in a sensible way.

Then the question becomes why people "lose everything" when stock markets crash. After all, if you own a deeded property, you can't lose it unless you sell it or unless you lose the title to a lender. On the other hand, if you don't have income to pay taxes, your local government might take it from you when you fail to pay the taxes. So there are a lot more factors to how people lose economically than the stock market crashing and recession generally, a big part of which is debt.

If people have debts, they are vulnerable to income losses because they will lose their things if they don't make payments, along with their credit. In fact, courts can order people to sell things to pay their debts during bankruptcy, so a good rule of thumb is stay out of debt as much as possible. That great car-loan you got from the dealer might turn out to cost you everything else you own when you are ordered to sell whatever you can to pay the car dealer as much as possible on the debt you owe.
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Old 03-04-17, 01:26 AM
  #424  
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Originally Posted by tandempower View Post
I'm going to start a thread in P&R about UAW's move to unionize Tesla. I wouldn't rule out conspiracy, but you might if you are pro-UAW.


I agree, but I think it confounds predictions when you mix 'can' and 'should' together. I'd rather predict the viability of the technology, and leave the politics of whether that technology will be obstructed to a separate discussion.

The sad thing, however, is that because R&D is focused on eventual repayment for investments, programs are sometimes cut due to political obstructions that lead investors to expect eventual losses when technologies are blocked. So you can predict when a certain technology will be viable, but it could then be aborted from achieving viability. Then we get stuck with the same old dinosaurs dominating the field of possibles.
I'm sure that will be fun for you. Then this can go back to being an LCF prediction thread.
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Old 03-06-17, 08:14 PM
  #425  
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I predict, in five years, I will pass gas on my ride to work...
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