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Living car free, 5 year predictions

Old 07-06-18, 08:38 PM
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Old 07-06-18, 08:40 PM
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike
In the alternate reality envisioned by the Dynamic Duo of BF-LCF Dreamworld, such differences can be ignored if/when it harshes the buzz of their "Critical Thinking" process.
I was pretty sure Thanos killed them all in that movie. It's a Marvelous Universe though...
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Old 07-06-18, 11:46 PM
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Originally Posted by cooker
Please make a specific prediction relevant to car-free living which you believe will occur over the next 5 years
Agreed.
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Old 07-07-18, 07:58 AM
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Originally Posted by tandempower
Do you predict development in electrically-powered 'whisper-quiet' helicopters in the next five years?

I'm going to go out on a limb and predict a new type of ultralight helicopter with very large rotor blades that turn relatively slowly and lift the heli up almost like a huge bird flapping wings with a corresponding, 'whoosh whoosh whoosh' sound. Once this vtol heli rises to a suitable altitude, the rotor tilts slight forward as its broad wings give it lift at its slow speed. The wings and rotor blades could have solar cells to charge the battery, which will need to be light, of course. The rotor/propeller will turn relatively slowly with high torque, something electric motors do well. Is something like this what you have in mind?
Are you predicting this will be developed or on it's way to development, aimed at supporting reduced car use, within 5 years?
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Old 07-07-18, 08:07 AM
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Originally Posted by cooker
Are you predicting this will be developed or on it's way to development, aimed at supporting reduced car use, within 5 years?
Considering I haven't seen anything remotely resembling a low-rpm helicopter with giant, broad rotor blades (maybe even sails), I'm going to only predict prototype development. I will only cast my hopes into this wishing well if it is very quiet, safe, and efficient. If it closely resembles a dragonfly, that would be a plus but not a requirement.

Look at this thing. Someone actually designed and built this:

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Old 07-07-18, 10:38 AM
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"Hopes" for successful winged flight had been thought about for a long, long time. Developing dreamy hopes for development of a dream/hope into anything close to a reality that can be credibly predicted to occur in a specific time frame such as 5 years or maybe five decades or even farther out will take more than Internet gossip and examples of total failure and dreams of the past.


Suggest that anyone interested in how two self taught "critical thinking" gentleman dedicated to serious development of an idea from a "hope" into a successful reality went about it, read the book:
The Wright Brothers by David McCullough
The Wright Brothers | Book by David McCullough | Official Publisher Page | Simon & Schuster

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Old 07-07-18, 12:38 PM
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike
"Hopes" for successful winged flight had been thought about for a long, long time. Developing dreamy hopes for development of a dream/hope into anything close to a reality that can be credibly predicted to occur in a specific time frame such as 5 years or maybe five decades or even farther out will take more than Internet gossip and examples of total failure and dreams of the past.
And the ridicule of dreaming, imagination, and other sparks of progress stifle even the tiniest baby steps in that direction, but I'm sure that won't stop you of dreaming of a world where your realism-preaching makes you more than just a downer to read.
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Old 07-08-18, 02:34 PM
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In five years most of us will have joined Uncle Walt.
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Old 07-08-18, 03:41 PM
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Originally Posted by LanghamP
I'd like to apologize ahead of time to ILIKETOBIKE and MOBILE; the following post is utter nonsense.

I grovel at their feet for such a bad post. I can't help it; I'm addicted to bad ideas.

I would like to think flying EV's would work quite well.

Helicopters require about 16 or more times energy to go the same mileage as a car does; however if you have time on your side then you could just run energy from your solar roof into the airborn EV. If all EV's were automated then I could see them rarely colliding. Air space is big, it's the runways that airplanes and pilots fight over.

The road infrastructure could be greatly reduced, made tiny, because a runway is much smaller than a road. For short distances, last mile transport could work. For bad weather, perhaps drones could deliver supplies.

We think of helicopters as being extremely loud but this is not always true! They are loud because they need to be effecient, and efficiency is a rotor just below the speed of sound. We've seen whisper-quiet helicopters when no care at all was made for gas mileage. If you are getting solar energy then you can care much less about being fuel efficient.

The ICE automobile and its expensive infrastructure is what will kill most of us, possibly all of us, and so if we oourselves do not adopt long term policies to reduce auto culture, then in the somewhat near future limitations will be imposed upon us.

Since only nations can impose such long-term policies, and since most nations are now democracies that are beholden to the short-term interest of their voters (or influencers), then it follows we will all follow the automobile down to its natural conclusion.

History is full of societies that collapsed following their destruction of their habitat to its natural conclusion:
--Easter Island utterly lost its fishing base when its all of its trees were cut down.
--Iceland and Greenland destroyed their slow growing trees and grass through cow herding. Iceland barely survived but Greenland lost every single European settler.
--Rwanda recently went through a genocide that freed up more land to people. Before the genocide there was less than a quarter of an acre of farmland for each person. A sky-high birthrate alongside modern medicine results in a Melthusian nightmare.

I think the present US and Western European policy of importing vast number of immigrants, legal or otherwise, is a misplaced policy because we cannot give everyone the same high standard of living without tremendous environmental cost.

Instead, we should be attempting to import their standard of living (within reason); the 1st world is like a lifeboat that cannot even safely carry what it has much less three times.

Every society above, when goods run out and they lose all their trees and grass, then experiences a sudden and dramatic loss of population as people scramble desperately to save themselves and their loved ones. Cannibalism is documented in those collapses (human protein is found in dna samples of human feces). The lifeboat is tipped, and so nature runs its grim course.

So I think living car free is the most important policy our civilization can have. There is no long-term future in cars, and to be honest the cost of giving up cars isn't much because we have so many other technological alternatives. Electric bicyles, AI driven electric cars, airlines using batteries (heavy, expensive, but perfectly feasible), work from home, urban planning, immersive video games so you do not often have to leave your domicile, online dating, and a myriad of other alternatives.

We can say, well, that's too expensive! Well, an ICE car is not cheap; it just appears cheaper over the short-term, the cost is distributed over everone and therefore is somewhat hidden. ICE's are cheap because they spew hydrocarbons where ever they please, but the great cost of doing so will become more apparent over time (as if it isn't already apparent and destructive).
very interesting , but humans can't see past there nose. We are lazy and our jobs depend on the oil industry..
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Old 07-08-18, 05:25 PM
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Originally Posted by rossiny
very interesting , but humans can't see past there nose. We are lazy and our jobs depend on the oil industry..
Speak for yourself.
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Old 07-09-18, 06:22 AM
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Originally Posted by tandempower
And the ridicule of dreaming, imagination, and other sparks of progress stifle even the tiniest baby steps in that direction, but I'm sure that won't stop you of dreaming of a world where your realism-preaching makes you more than just a downer to read.
Psssst...It's called some of us are grounded in reality. Not a land of unicorns and rainbows.
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Old 07-09-18, 06:54 AM
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Originally Posted by prj71
Psssst...It's called some of us are grounded in reality. Not a land of unicorns and rainbows.
Do you 'realists' realize how boring it is to read these posts where you assert your realism over and over in the same boring ways all the time? Could you at least put some creativity into coming up with fresh and interesting ways to celebrate reality over all these things you imagine to be outside of it?
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Old 07-09-18, 08:35 AM
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Sure. As soon as you tell us that you're grounded in reality instead of these pipe dreams where you expect washers, dryers and a water supply along the trails/paths you ride.
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Old 07-09-18, 10:57 AM
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Again - 5 year predictions.
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Old 07-09-18, 09:07 PM
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Originally Posted by tandempower
And the ridicule of dreaming, imagination, and other sparks of progress stifle even the tiniest baby steps in that direction, but I'm sure that won't stop you of dreaming of a world where your realism-preaching makes you more than just a downer to read.
Walt Disney? Disneyland? Home of, Cars Land theme park, in Disney's California Adventure Park, at 20 Route 66, Anaheim, CA?
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Old 07-10-18, 06:27 AM
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Originally Posted by McBTC
Walt Disney? Disneyland? Home of, Cars Land theme park, in Disney's California Adventure Park, at 20 Route 66, Anaheim, CA?
Disney emerged during the post WWII automotive-suburbanism movement, before the sprawl and traffic in places like California and Florida got out of control. Disney believed that progress doesn't produce perfection, but that it continues to strive to move forward to a better tomorrow. Disney also saw promise in automation. The most interesting expression of Disney's philosophy on progress I've seen in recent years is in the movie, Tommorowland, where the conflict is between the abuse of dystopianism as a way for people to consume forecasts of doom and reviving utopianism as the spirit of achieving a (sustainable) future that transcends the inevitability of doom. Disney is not about defending cars or anything else, except maybe insofar as they were a product of utopian dreams. Really it's about maintaining hope and faith in a better world through progress beyond status quo, rooted in the human capacity to think/imagine/dream beyond foreseeable limits. Disney doesn't dwell on the limits, because they are sensitive to the spirit of discouragement, but they are implicit in the will to overcome them through progress into something better and more sustainable.
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Old 07-10-18, 09:06 AM
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Anybody got a 5 year prediction? Anybody?
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Old 07-10-18, 09:25 AM
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Originally Posted by cooker
Anybody got a 5 year prediction? Anybody?
i am still thinking there will be a great spike in E bikes and LSV production much like what we see in China. I am a bit more cautious EVs getting here in force with the manufacturing problems Tesla is having with the C model. Turns out 5 years isn’t as much time as I thought.
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Old 07-10-18, 10:39 AM
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Originally Posted by cooker
Anybody got a 5 year prediction? Anybody?
People will still be driving cars and riding bikes.

I do see a surge in e-bikes though. Only for the reason is that not everyone is fit enough to ride at moderate pace or long distance.

My wife and I sometimes ride together. I can ride anywhere from 50-100 miles. She's not as passionate about biking as I am and can't ride at the speed and distance I do...we both tried an e-bike a couple of weeks ago. She said she would like one so she can keep up with my pace and distance.

I would consider one for commuting to work to save me from becoming a sweatball by the time I reach the office.

E-bikes are just robbing Peter to Pay Paul though...Lot's of fossil fuels become dedicated to gathering materials to make the batteries, manufacturing the batteries and transporting the batteries. Not sure that the use of fossil fuels is reduced in the end. It's just shifted to the front end.
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Old 07-10-18, 10:42 AM
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Originally Posted by Mobile 155


i am still thinking there will be a great spike in E bikes and LSV production much like what we see in China. I am a bit more cautious EVs getting here in force with the manufacturing problems Tesla is having with the C model. Turns out 5 years isn’t as much time as I thought.
Thanks! I had to google LSV - looks like a slightly souped up golf-cart. Do they already have them in your area? Certainly I now routinely see e-bikes on my commute, surprisingly mostly carrying healthy looking young men, and also often couriers for Uber Eats.
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Old 07-10-18, 11:10 AM
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Originally Posted by prj71
People will still be driving cars and riding bikes.

I do see a surge in e-bikes though. Only for the reason is that not everyone is fit enough to ride at moderate pace or long distance.

My wife and I sometimes ride together. I can ride anywhere from 50-100 miles. She's not as passionate about biking as I am and can't ride at the speed and distance I do...we both tried an e-bike a couple of weeks ago. She said she would like one so she can keep up with my pace and distance.

I would consider one for commuting to work to save me from becoming a sweatball by the time I reach the office.

E-bikes are just robbing Peter to Pay Paul though...Lot's of fossil fuels become dedicated to gathering materials to make the batteries, manufacturing the batteries and transporting the batteries. Not sure that the use of fossil fuels is reduced in the end. It's just shifted to the front end.
Thanks - great post. When you consider all the fossil fuel that goes into making a car vs e-bike, and the amount consumed in daily use, and the amount that goes into building and maintaining the road surface they both need, an e-bike is going to come out away ahead.
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Old 07-10-18, 11:22 AM
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Originally Posted by cooker
Thanks! I had to google LSV - looks like a slightly souped up golf-cart. Do they already have them in your area? Certainly I now routinely see e-bikes on my commute, surprisingly mostly carrying healthy looking young men, and also often couriers for Uber Eats.
Yes they have them here. And yes they can be nothing more than a golf cart type vehicle. There are some cities just to the west of me that have marked their streets just for these vehicles much like they do for bicycles.

It is the option for a shelter from the weather i think that makes them popular. There is even talk of special parking spots at the shopping centers for them. But for about the price of a good CF road bike they aren’t a bad deal.

The other option I see a lot of us mobility scooters with tops and two seats. It seems as if they have figured a way to get people on one without a disability. My neighbor bought two so when his kids come visit they don’t have to move the car to drive to town.

It may may be a misuse of what they were intended for but where there is a will there is a way as they say.
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Old 07-10-18, 11:51 AM
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Originally Posted by cooker
Anybody got a 5 year prediction? Anybody?
I predict Walt Disney will still be dead, only not for 51 years, but for 56 years. He will still not rise from the dead to make anybody's dreams come true.

The Walt Disney Company's mission will not change much from what it is today (See https://www.thewaltdisneycompany.com/about/). Efforts to promote Living Car Free lifestyles will remain an irrelevant issue to the company.

The largest chunk of Walt Disney stock will still be held by Steve Job's widow.

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Old 07-10-18, 12:00 PM
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Originally Posted by cooker
Thanks - great post. When you consider all the fossil fuel that goes into making a car vs e-bike, and the amount consumed in daily use, and the amount that goes into building and maintaining the road surface they both need, an e-bike is going to come out away ahead.
If e-bike usage increases...then more lithium ion batteries need to be produced...Which means in increase in mining where the lithium comes from...then think of all the fossil fueled equipment that is used to mine the lithium...followed by the increase in fossil fuels to transport the lithium (there is only one lithium mine in the U.S. the rest comes from Chile and Australia) from the mine to the battery manufacturer via plane, semi-trucks....then the increase in fossil fuels to manufacture the batteries...then the increase in transporting to move the batteries from the battery company to the bike company. Which means the maintaining of the roads surface still take place.

I don't think the e-bike comes out way ahead in the big picture. For the consumer it does for the rest of it...I don't think so.

The same can be said for hybrid cars. It's well known that hybrid cars do, in fact, require more energy to produce than conventional cars...emitting more greenhouse gases and burning more fossil fuels during the manufacturing process. The production of hybrid batteries requires much more energy than producing a standard car battery and results in higher emission levels of gases like sulfur oxide

Then you get into the pure electric cars...Now you have to produce more power to charge them.

https://blog.ucsusa.org/rachael-neal...-emissions-953

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Old 07-10-18, 12:17 PM
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Originally Posted by tandempower


Really it's about maintaining hope and faith in a better world through progress beyond status quo, rooted in the human capacity to think/imagine/dream beyond foreseeable limits....

.
I hear 'ya brother...


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