The beginning of end... automotive industry?
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The beginning of end... automotive industry?
IMHO Andy Palmer is on to something. Once self-driving electrics find their place..... car ownership/brand name will be as exciting as.... toasters.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/autos/news...cid=spartandhp
https://www.msn.com/en-us/autos/news...cid=spartandhp
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At least you'll have the bragging rights of the most advanced AI in your toaster on wheels!!!
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Not sure I agree. The auto industry is expert at making people think they need their product. The self-driving capability will cause a lot of disruption, but there's still going to a lot demand for new cars.
Middle class people have emotions too.
For Aston Martin, however, there isn't much fear about producing the same thing as everyone else is making. The company says that it has always been, and always will be, a niche manufacturer of luxury sports and supercars.
"People are still looking for emotion in their motion and that’s where the luxury manufacturers sit, and where Aston Martin is flourishing," Palmer said.
"People are still looking for emotion in their motion and that’s where the luxury manufacturers sit, and where Aston Martin is flourishing," Palmer said.
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The above would be true except that cars provide more than mere transportation. Many people enjoy driving.
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The familiar love for driving will largely if not completely fall by the wayside if self driving cars owned by others become convenient and a factor of 5 or more cheaper overall.
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But it won't happen tomorrow... or even next week.
Last edited by Dave Cutter; 06-10-18 at 09:45 PM.
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I think private ownership of driverless cars will come out just about as soon as driverless taxis.
And nothing will change, other than one can sit back and read the morning newspaper during the commute.
Presumably insurance rates will fall (if they don't keep running over people and running into the side of trucks).
Think of "leases". Some people like them, some don't. But, there is always a middle-man making profit off of the leases.
Likewise, car ownership may be less expensive than taking driverless taxis, especially when one chooses to head out of town.
How much does a 500 mile taxi trip cost? A 5000 mile taxi trip?
And nothing will change, other than one can sit back and read the morning newspaper during the commute.
Presumably insurance rates will fall (if they don't keep running over people and running into the side of trucks).
Think of "leases". Some people like them, some don't. But, there is always a middle-man making profit off of the leases.
Likewise, car ownership may be less expensive than taking driverless taxis, especially when one chooses to head out of town.
How much does a 500 mile taxi trip cost? A 5000 mile taxi trip?
#9
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Vehicles have always served as a symbol of wealth for as long as they've existed. Besides, I have yet to see anyone arrive in a chauffeur driven Honda at a swanky engagement. That's unlikely to change anytime soon.
Last edited by KraneXL; 06-11-18 at 12:47 AM.
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Go get your own Magic Bus. I wanna drive again before I die.
Thanks for understanding
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My millennial kid and many of his friends do NOT have the car lust that my generation had. In fact, they prefer to not own cars. More fun to spend their money on outrageous expensive restaurants and on beer, lol. Car share, bike share, scooter share, electric skateboards - and someday true hoverboards! Once AI cars are ubiquitous, the generational shift will render cars less a status symbol and they will be the tool they really are. I'm not sure it will ever supplant the auto industry in whole, though, as trucks and pickups for work purposes will become the focus. Passenger cars will no longer be produced but vehicles for rapid transit, trucks for non-drone package delivery, trucks for moving furniture and appliances, etc. are still going to be required. It will just shift the industry, not kill it.
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My millennial kid and many of his friends do NOT have the car lust that my generation had. In fact, they prefer to not own cars. More fun to spend their money on outrageous expensive restaurants and on beer, lol. Car share, bike share, scooter share, electric skateboards - and someday true hoverboards! Once AI cars are ubiquitous, the generational shift will render cars less a status symbol and they will be the tool they really are. I'm not sure it will ever supplant the auto industry in whole, though, as trucks and pickups for work purposes will become the focus. Passenger cars will no longer be produced but vehicles for rapid transit, trucks for non-drone package delivery, trucks for moving furniture and appliances, etc. are still going to be required. It will just shift the industry, not kill it.
If as some would suggest, cars are a status symbol, even if 9 out of 10 households have access or possess a car, wouldn’t having a self driving car be even a greater status symbol?
It seems as if as as long as the economy is strong people will buy the latest bright shinny thing. And as long as they can afford it who has the right to complain about what they own?
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the question is just what will cause the people that want to own their vehicle to want to share a vehicle? Even if it is self driving couldn’t someone just as easily have their own self driving car?
If as some would suggest, cars are a status symbol, even if 9 out of 10 households have access or possess a car, wouldn’t having a self driving car be even a greater status symbol?
It seems as if as as long as the economy is strong people will buy the latest bright shinny thing. And as long as they can afford it who has the right to complain about what they own?
Last edited by KraneXL; 06-11-18 at 03:59 PM. Reason: sp
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I think people like owning their own things, even the ones that pretend they aren’t into consuming.
I temember when the children of the 60s were going to change the world and teach everyone to share and live simply. This was the same generation that produced soccer moms, mini vans and SUVs.
I am not ready to hold my breath on the death of the personal vehicle or the birth of the share and share alike society. But who knows?
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I think you will see both. In urban areas like NY and SF having your own car is a pain in the butt. Boston, too. So in places where parking is highly limited and expensive, AI car share will do very well. In places like L.A. people will own their AI cars. No downside to it, they have plenty of room to park and you need a car to go absolutely anywhere. Sure, it will be a status symbol in those kind of places as well. But - and I say this as a senior citizen myself - it will hopefully keep older drivers who should have stopped driving from owning cars. I'm sure we all love the 85 year old behind the wheel of the Mercedes Benz going 20 mph under the speed limit...
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I am not ready to hold my breath about the future of the automobile industry based on the prognostications from the spokesman for an infinitesimal niche player in the market. Aston Martin produced all of 5,117 units of the world wide production of 73.46 million cars. https://www.statista.com/statistics/...on-since-2000/
It it would be like me predicting the success of Tesla based on my new neighbor just buying one. That makes it a 100 percent increase in Tesla sales in my neighborhood in the last month? I am not ready to make a prediction based on that number either.
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The conclusion appears to be based on some pretty solid research: https://www.rethinkx.com/executive-summary
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The conclusion appears to be based on some pretty solid research: https://www.rethinkx.com/executive-summary
if you consider WAG'ing by a self described "thought leader" [a world-renowned thought leader, Silicon Valley entrepreneur, educator and the author of the Amazon #1 best-selling book Clean Disruption of Energy and Transportation: How Silicon Valley Will Make Oil, Nuclear, Natural Gas, Coal, Electric Utilities and Conventional Cars Obsolete by 2030] without any data at all and based only on a series of his conjured scenarios each contingent on all the other conjured scenarios falling into place.
Did you actually read that mish mash of gibberish in the executive summary that described that outfit's so-called research process?
Reads like the basis of the predictions on this subject formerly made by a wild eyed dreamer who used to post on the A&S but has since been banned by the mods. Or maybe it was an outtake from the Dilbert comics.
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I know a lawyer who owns a self-driving Telsa… he says he does billable work on his way to the office.
Many people own a beater... to save money. Then when taking a trip (holiday or vacation) get a rental car. You can save a lot of money that way. And short cab ride... minus the TIP... aren't too pricey.
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Gerontophobia is the fear of growing old, or a hatred or fear of the elderly.
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No. Old people driving slow.... doesn't bother me a bit. My 90+ mother just bought a new car.
Gerontophobia is the fear of growing old, or a hatred or fear of the elderly.
Gerontophobia is the fear of growing old, or a hatred or fear of the elderly.
#24
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I know a lawyer who owns a self-driving Telsa… he says he does billable work on his way to the office.
[color=#333333]
Many people own a beater... to save money. Then when taking a trip (holiday or vacation) get a rental car. You can save a lot of money that way. And short cab ride... minus the TIP... aren't too pricey.
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With AV cars there will be lots of way manufacturers and services can distinguish their offerings: high res TVs, computer games, sound systems, sound proofing, Netflix, comfy reclining chairs, mini-bar, etc.