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The beginning of end... automotive industry?

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The beginning of end... automotive industry?

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Old 06-10-18, 04:27 PM
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Dave Cutter
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The beginning of end... automotive industry?

IMHO Andy Palmer is on to something. Once self-driving electrics find their place..... car ownership/brand name will be as exciting as.... toasters.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/autos/news...cid=spartandhp
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Old 06-10-18, 04:44 PM
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At least you'll have the bragging rights of the most advanced AI in your toaster on wheels!!!
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Old 06-10-18, 04:53 PM
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Not sure I agree. The auto industry is expert at making people think they need their product. The self-driving capability will cause a lot of disruption, but there's still going to a lot demand for new cars.

For Aston Martin, however, there isn't much fear about producing the same thing as everyone else is making. The company says that it has always been, and always will be, a niche manufacturer of luxury sports and supercars.

"People are still looking for emotion in their motion and that’s where the luxury manufacturers sit, and where Aston Martin is flourishing," Palmer said.
Middle class people have emotions too.
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Old 06-10-18, 06:06 PM
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The above would be true except that cars provide more than mere transportation. Many people enjoy driving.
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Old 06-10-18, 07:34 PM
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The familiar love for driving will largely if not completely fall by the wayside if self driving cars owned by others become convenient and a factor of 5 or more cheaper overall.
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Old 06-10-18, 09:42 PM
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Originally Posted by KraneXL View Post
The above would be true except that cars provide more than mere transportation. Many people enjoy driving.
True. I think that is what Andy Palmer was trying to point out. TODAY.... cars are (in many ways) symbolic of other desirables.... like freedom, power, wealth, status.... and the ole "rolling shack" (to have sex in), etc.. But once driverless cars show up at your location via a phone app and transport you anywhere, anytime, drunk, sober, high, in any weather. Car ownership... might just lose its "symbolic shine". Once car ownership is seen as a wastefully expense burden...… expect change.

But it won't happen tomorrow... or even next week.

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Old 06-10-18, 09:43 PM
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Originally Posted by walter s View Post
the familiar love for driving will largely if not completely fall by the wayside if self driving cars owned by others become convenient and a factor of 5 or more cheaper overall.
exactly!
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Old 06-10-18, 10:05 PM
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I think private ownership of driverless cars will come out just about as soon as driverless taxis.

And nothing will change, other than one can sit back and read the morning newspaper during the commute.

Presumably insurance rates will fall (if they don't keep running over people and running into the side of trucks).

Think of "leases". Some people like them, some don't. But, there is always a middle-man making profit off of the leases.

Likewise, car ownership may be less expensive than taking driverless taxis, especially when one chooses to head out of town.

How much does a 500 mile taxi trip cost? A 5000 mile taxi trip?
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Old 06-11-18, 12:09 AM
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Vehicles have always served as a symbol of wealth for as long as they've existed. Besides, I have yet to see anyone arrive in a chauffeur driven Honda at a swanky engagement. That's unlikely to change anytime soon.

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Old 06-11-18, 12:27 AM
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Originally Posted by Walter S View Post
The familiar love for driving will largely if not completely fall by the wayside if self driving cars owned by others become convenient and a factor of 5 or more cheaper overall.
I'll give up my love and want for a 340 Duster when the pry my....

Go get your own Magic Bus. I wanna drive again before I die.

Thanks for understanding
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Old 06-11-18, 09:34 AM
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My millennial kid and many of his friends do NOT have the car lust that my generation had. In fact, they prefer to not own cars. More fun to spend their money on outrageous expensive restaurants and on beer, lol. Car share, bike share, scooter share, electric skateboards - and someday true hoverboards! Once AI cars are ubiquitous, the generational shift will render cars less a status symbol and they will be the tool they really are. I'm not sure it will ever supplant the auto industry in whole, though, as trucks and pickups for work purposes will become the focus. Passenger cars will no longer be produced but vehicles for rapid transit, trucks for non-drone package delivery, trucks for moving furniture and appliances, etc. are still going to be required. It will just shift the industry, not kill it.
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Old 06-11-18, 11:50 AM
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Originally Posted by linberl View Post
My millennial kid and many of his friends do NOT have the car lust that my generation had. In fact, they prefer to not own cars. More fun to spend their money on outrageous expensive restaurants and on beer, lol. Car share, bike share, scooter share, electric skateboards - and someday true hoverboards! Once AI cars are ubiquitous, the generational shift will render cars less a status symbol and they will be the tool they really are. I'm not sure it will ever supplant the auto industry in whole, though, as trucks and pickups for work purposes will become the focus. Passenger cars will no longer be produced but vehicles for rapid transit, trucks for non-drone package delivery, trucks for moving furniture and appliances, etc. are still going to be required. It will just shift the industry, not kill it.
the question is just what will cause the people that want to own their vehicle to want to share a vehicle? Even if it is self driving couldn’t someone just as easily have their own self driving car?

If as some would suggest, cars are a status symbol, even if 9 out of 10 households have access or possess a car, wouldn’t having a self driving car be even a greater status symbol?

It seems as if as as long as the economy is strong people will buy the latest bright shinny thing. And as long as they can afford it who has the right to complain about what they own?
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Old 06-11-18, 12:55 PM
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Originally Posted by Mobile 155 View Post

the question is just what will cause the people that want to own their vehicle to want to share a vehicle? Even if it is self driving couldn’t someone just as easily have their own self driving car?

If as some would suggest, cars are a status symbol, even if 9 out of 10 households have access or possess a car, wouldn’t having a self driving car be even a greater status symbol?

It seems as if as as long as the economy is strong people will buy the latest bright shinny thing. And as long as they can afford it who has the right to complain about what they own?
I'm not sure why people don't get this. Self-driving won't change the mindset of owning a car nor its status symbol image one bit. If anything, it will increase it.

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Old 06-11-18, 02:08 PM
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Originally Posted by KraneXL View Post
I'm not sure why people don't get this. Self-driving won't change the mindset of owning a car nor its status symbol image one bet. If anything, it will increase it.
I tend to agree. People could buy a Trac Phone and some do. But the line for anew IPhone or galaxy goes around the block.

I think people like owning their own things, even the ones that pretend they aren’t into consuming.

I temember when the children of the 60s were going to change the world and teach everyone to share and live simply. This was the same generation that produced soccer moms, mini vans and SUVs.

I am not ready to hold my breath on the death of the personal vehicle or the birth of the share and share alike society. But who knows?
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Old 06-11-18, 02:32 PM
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Originally Posted by Mobile 155 View Post
I am not ready to hold my breath on the death of the personal vehicle or the birth of the share and share alike society. But who knows?
I am not ready to hold my breath about the future of the automobile industry based on the prognostications from the spokesman for an infinitesimal niche player in the market. Aston Martin produced all of 5,117 units of the world wide production of 73.46 million cars. https://www.statista.com/statistics/...on-since-2000/
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Old 06-11-18, 02:42 PM
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I think you will see both. In urban areas like NY and SF having your own car is a pain in the butt. Boston, too. So in places where parking is highly limited and expensive, AI car share will do very well. In places like L.A. people will own their AI cars. No downside to it, they have plenty of room to park and you need a car to go absolutely anywhere. Sure, it will be a status symbol in those kind of places as well. But - and I say this as a senior citizen myself - it will hopefully keep older drivers who should have stopped driving from owning cars. I'm sure we all love the 85 year old behind the wheel of the Mercedes Benz going 20 mph under the speed limit...
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Old 06-11-18, 02:46 PM
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike View Post
I am not ready to hold my breath about the future of the automobile industry based on the prognostications from the spokesman for an infinitesimal niche player in the market. Aston Martin produced all of 5,117 units of the world wide production of 73.46 million cars. https://www.statista.com/statistics/...on-since-2000/
predicting anything to do within the auto industry based on such a small segment of the population is questionable to say the least.

It it would be like me predicting the success of Tesla based on my new neighbor just buying one. That makes it a 100 percent increase in Tesla sales in my neighborhood in the last month? I am not ready to make a prediction based on that number either.
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Old 06-11-18, 03:02 PM
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The conclusion appears to be based on some pretty solid research: https://www.rethinkx.com/executive-summary
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Old 06-11-18, 05:14 PM
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Originally Posted by mercator View Post
The conclusion appears to be based on some pretty solid research: https://www.rethinkx.com/executive-summary
Sure
if you consider WAG'ing by a self described "thought leader" [a world-renowned thought leader, Silicon Valley entrepreneur, educator and the author of the Amazon #1 best-selling book Clean Disruption of Energy and Transportation: How Silicon Valley Will Make Oil, Nuclear, Natural Gas, Coal, Electric Utilities and Conventional Cars Obsolete by 2030] without any data at all and based only on a series of his conjured scenarios each contingent on all the other conjured scenarios falling into place.


Did you actually read that mish mash of gibberish in the executive summary that described that outfit's so-called research process?



Reads like the basis of the predictions on this subject formerly made by a wild eyed dreamer who used to post on the A&S but has since been banned by the mods. Or maybe it was an outtake from the Dilbert comics.
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Old 06-11-18, 07:04 PM
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Originally Posted by CliffordK View Post
I think private ownership of driverless cars will come out just about as soon as driverless taxis.

And nothing will change, other than one can sit back and read the morning newspaper during the commute.


I know a lawyer who owns a self-driving Telsa… he says he does billable work on his way to the office.

Originally Posted by CliffordK View Post

Likewise, car ownership may be less expensive than taking driverless taxis, especially when one chooses to head out of town.

How much does a 500 mile taxi trip cost? A 5000 mile taxi trip?
Many people own a beater... to save money. Then when taking a trip (holiday or vacation) get a rental car. You can save a lot of money that way. And short cab ride... minus the TIP... aren't too pricey.
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Old 06-11-18, 07:12 PM
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Originally Posted by linberl View Post
I...…... I'm sure we all love the 85 year old behind the wheel of the Mercedes Benz going 20 mph under the speed limit...
No. Old people driving slow.... doesn't bother me a bit. My 90+ mother just bought a new car.

Gerontophobia is the fear of growing old, or a hatred or fear of the elderly.
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Old 06-11-18, 07:21 PM
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Originally Posted by Walter S View Post
The familiar love for driving will largely if not completely fall by the wayside if self driving cars owned by others become convenient and a factor of 5 or more cheaper overall.
I think that may be true, but it's a long way off. I don't think I'll live to see it.
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Old 06-11-18, 07:22 PM
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Originally Posted by Dave Cutter View Post
No. Old people driving slow.... doesn't bother me a bit. My 90+ mother just bought a new car.

Gerontophobia is the fear of growing old, or a hatred or fear of the elderly.
Considering that I am 68, your comment about gerontophobia is stupid; I'm already old. We all have our own experiences. I remember riding with my grandmother when she was 72 and I was a teenager. She drove us down a one way street ... the wrong way!!! Scared the living **** out of me. We nearly hit several cars. I told my folks and they called the DMV and reported her and her license was revoked. It was an older gentleman who ran into the Farmer's Market in L.A. and killed people. Even at my age, I can see a difference in my reflex time. When you hit 80 or 90 your reflexes are even slower, your awareness of hazards around you is not as acute. Your judgment is not as sharp. It's just a fact of aging, like aches and pains. If you think your 90 year old mom is just as good a driver as someone younger, you are sadly mistaken. I hope for both your sakes that nothing happens when she is driving.
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Old 06-11-18, 07:30 PM
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Originally Posted by Dave Cutter View Post

I know a lawyer who owns a self-driving Telsa… he says he does billable work on his way to the office.

[color=#333333]

Many people own a beater... to save money. Then when taking a trip (holiday or vacation) get a rental car. You can save a lot of money that way. And short cab ride... minus the TIP... aren't too pricey.
Really... ??? a self driving Tesla... No such thing, at the present time... As far as I know... NOT for the general public anyways.. If he is riding in that car and, "thinks" it is a "self driving" car he is going to be one of those people that are dead, because the car is NOT "self driving", it has a lane assist, cruse control assist, and some other safety features , but it is NOT a self driving/autonomous car, ... The driver MUST participate in the driving...
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Old 06-11-18, 07:36 PM
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With AV cars there will be lots of way manufacturers and services can distinguish their offerings: high res TVs, computer games, sound systems, sound proofing, Netflix, comfy reclining chairs, mini-bar, etc.
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