cooker

^^Not really.

Interestingly, here in Toronto and I'm sure in New York, the huge hit public transit it taking, is offset to a small degree by health care and other essential workers who would have taken the bus, now biking to work to minimize exposure to community spread. As more businesses start to reopen, we'll see if a lot more people start biking to work because they are leery of the subway.

I was sick with a 'flu for three weeks in March, and of course I was a bit worried it would evolve into a severe case of corona virus but it didn't. However, I am sure I was infected on the subway, and was cursing myself for not getting my bike out sooner, but there were still snowy and icy conditions and I also avoid those for health/safety reasons.

As for the five year prediction thread, I started it in May 2015, so I have been toying with starting a follow up thread next month, to discuss how some of the predictions actually are turning out at five years.

cooker

That's what is supposed to happen. More sick people now, less later. We won't know if they did the right thing until the second (or third) wave hits.

jon c. 

I couldn't agree more. Who needs people with decades of education, knowledge and experience? Expertise is vastly over rated. People spend their entire lives intensely studying these complex subjects and they clearly have no better don't know any more than the people posting in this thread.

Expertise is the biggest scam since one hour Martinizing.

Mobile 155

Maybe the first time I have laughed about this subject all week. Thank you for the thought exercise. I agree they first seem to believe something and then declare themselves experts.

Mobile 155

Here in the US part of the offset is they have laid off thousands of medical workers because they aren't doing any elective services. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...ff/5102320002/ In New York people are driving because traffic is light and fear of other people. Then in places like LA cycling is out of the question anyway. But some have told me it can be hit of miss. Dress like the homeless and they leave you alone. San Bernardino County were pulling cyclists over for a while as well. Shoot they arrested someone for surfing in the ocean all by himself because he had to cross an empty beach to get to the water. Made the newspapers and nightly news. In Italy and Spain it was against the Law to bicycle back in March. Even here some wilderness trails are off limits to bikes but OK for hikers., or so I have read. The reasoning as I understand it was they didn't want to transport you to the hospital if you crashed your MTB.

But the Subway is a bit like an airplane. A germ tube. That is why I don't think they will ever be able to keep the current configuration for mass transit. With all the focus on Covid 19 and the worst flu season we have had in years I bet they will impose social distancing next winter when the next flu season starts. But it isn't just observation this time, mass transit has taken a hit statistically and in video on the nightly news. It has even received comment by the governors office in New York and San Francisco. My state is having a soft opening starting Friday. I for one am looking forward to seeing real people and some open stores next week. I even plan of doing some fishing and some other outdoor hobbies in the next few weeks.

Machka 

Um ... why haven't you been seeing real people, going to open stores, doing some fishing and enjoying outdoor hobbies?

alloo

Read this article today. What do you think? https://www.bbc.com/future/article/2...ath-of-the-car
and this one.https://www.bbc.com/future/article/2...to-coronavirus

Mobile 155

Depends where you live. Some of our states have closed all public parks and some haven’t. I can sit on my patio and watch the sail boats and power boats most good afternoons. But we here are few open stores even here till Tomorrow. Grocery stores and the super big box warehouse stores yes they are open.

in California for reasons only known to the politicians the beaches have been closed. The population is in full rebellion and there are street protests. Like I said they were arresting surfers that were the only ones on a wave, cuffing them and hauling them to jail. One of the reasons I moved. In New York they have offered a reward for reporting neighbors not practicing social distancing. They even have a web site to report open stores and large gatherings.

I don’t live in a high density community so I am not as restricted as those that do. But I have followed the guidelines and will wait till tomorrow to go on with my life.
[img]blob:https://www.bikeforums.net/7cec9a3e-2b86-4a40-9f13-5dd297a4985b[/img]

cooker

Big chunks of the Northern hemisphere have been on lockdown. The only stores open were grocery stores. Anybody over 65 was encouraged not to go out unless absolutely necessary, and lots of public recreation areas where you might fish or engage in other outdoor hobbies are or were closed. They're just starting to open up.

cooker

I'm actually of the opinion that things will return to previous norms very quickly. As soon as they feel it is safe (which won't take long) people will rush back to theatres and bars and beaches, and there may even be an initial surge where these places are more crowded than ever, due to people feeling they have missed out and have some catching up to do.

Of course i could be wrong, but since we were talking about my old predictions thread, I am in the mood to take a chance and make a bold prediction. And certainly to some degree we saw that in China.

rossiny

I have been of the mind frame before this virus , that civilization is going completely crazy. We have an economic system in place that is based on unlimited mass production / mass consumption/ mass pollution. I just dont get how we can keep producing over 70 million cars per year and if they are not continued to sell and produce people will loose their jobs. . As you notice pretty regularly we go to war mainly in the middle east to control oil interest. If you think about a jumbo jet and fueling up with 36, 000 gallons jet fuel for fill up. Once again , am I the only one that is amazed we have that much fuel underground. ?? You can't help but wonder, how forgiving can this planet be. Am I the only one that is amazed we can still breath.?
Our economy is also based on constant growth to pay stock holders, and credit to even operate some businesses.
How does my comment relate to the virus you may ask? The saying when will we get back to normal?
We are so far away from normal now it is mind boggling.😱 Why would we want to get back to that. Maybe this is a message about actually choosing what we choose to do in our future and our children's future. When a child eats a pound of chocolate a parent need to step in and discipline, we are like an indisciplined child out of control eating pounds of chocolate daily. At some time there will be consequences...
So in closing , getting back to normal business after this pandemic is suspect and all the other insecurities about how many people it will kill. There is that theory that what is happening is happening because we are creating it with our thoughts, then become manifested into reality . Are we in fact trying to kill ourselves off because we cant get off the merry- go - round. ( current economy)?
PS , Just google world daily oil consumption is like 93 million barrels per day. That is PER DAY...
boggles the mind 🤯
..

Mobile 155

It is not our thoughts but how we as a people react that changes things. Why would people want to get back to what some consider normal? The reason I believe is the alternative is poverty.

People want normal so that when they go to the store the toilet paper shelves aren't cleared off. So they have a paycheck coming in to purchase the things they cannot grow for themselves or make. That want normal so they are facing poverty the first of every month. And I don't know about anyone else but I hardly see any adult leaders that I would trust to tell me what is the best action for my well being.

There was already a trend of people leaving the big cities like New York, LA , San Francisco, Chicago and of course Detroit. I just believe the pandemic will grease the slide a bit more.

rossiny

I think you might be normal to have toilet paper and running water and functional Plumbing however how is normal that people are jet-setting all over the world and burning petroleum like it's never going to run out? I had a union painting and wallpapering job as a young man fir about 2 years. You has to install so many rolls of vinyl wall covering , it was commercial rolls and 54 inches wide. There was an unwritten rule that if you could not do the production of 99 yards,about 2 large hotel rooms with double king size beds , you basically were let go. Even as a young man I knew the job was good money but never could be sustainable. After a few projects bug lay offs came. That is the economy and " normal " craziness that I speak of..
I think most jobs are like that today. If a car company does not have a certain number of cars roll off assembly line and sell off the lot lay offs. But the question needs to be asked is it sustainable and when will it all crash. Look at this relatively short shutdown how many jobs lost . if we have a great depression I don't think people know how to grow vegetables, and jar them the way they did in the 1930s. I think would be scary indeed .

rossiny

I think it might be normal to have toilet paper and running water and functional Plumbing , , however, how is normal that people are jet-setting all over the world and burning petroleum like it's never going to run out? I had a union painting and wallpapering job as a young man fir about 2 years. You had to install so many rolls of vinyl wall covering , it was commercial rolls and 54 inches wide. There was an unwritten rule that if you could not do the production of 90 yards,about 2 large hotel rooms with double king size beds , you basically were let go. Even as a young man I knew the job was good money but never could be sustainable. After a few projects, big lay offs came. That is the economy and " normal " craziness that I speak of..
I think most jobs are like that today. If a car company does not have a certain number of cars roll off assembly line and sell off the lot,,>> lay offs. But the question needs to be asked is it sustainable and when will it all crash. Look at this relatively short shutdown how many jobs lost . if we have a great depression I don't think people know how to grow vegetables, and jar them the way they did in the 1930s. I think would be scary indeed .

350htrr

I think you are mistaking normal and sustainable… Today it seems that society thinks and sees , what IS viewed, as normal, is NOT really that sustainable, but IS, being viewed as normal, and sustainable... JMO . A bit convoluted I know but it makes sense to me...

Mobile 155

I had a rather long detailed response with posted links trying to express my point on this but I simply decided it wasn't worth the effort. I would hope Cooker might be half right and things will come back strong. I am a bit more skeptical however but I do know from talking with people they are tired of promised changed and pie in the sky solutions. From the people I talk to people just want to go back to work. They just want the life back they had. They just want to be able to go to dinner or take their kids store and buy something that will make them happy. They don't want to be afraid of getting on a subway and getting sick, even if it was just a cold or the flu like Cooker had. Normal is sustainable to the family looking at their life and their children's. Maybe not five generations down the line but by then who knows what sustainable is? And don't try to say scientists do because they are no better at predicting the future than someone with a crystal ball. If they did this pandemic wouldn't have caught them by surprise. But I digress.

The same people that some look to for sustainable life suggestions are telling us this pandemic will be coming back.. The same people that say it is coming back are saying it will come back taking the same path it did last time so the same large urban centers will get hit first again. The same subway and bus systems will become toxic maybe even airlines and trains. WE will have to practice social distancing again. I simply cannot believe we as a society can look at the lifestyle of large urban city and not develop a bit of a dread if we do see it coming back next season. Unless the scientific experts are wrong again. That is simply my opinion.

Look people these are only expressed opinions here and people can post their wish list of what would make a fair world. But if we talk to every day people living every day lives they just want to get back to work. They just want to pay their rent, buy food and save up for retirement. And they all feel like they are the only adults that know what they need.

rossiny

Quote:
Look people these are only expressed opinions here and people can post their wish list of what would make a fair world. But if we talk to every day people living every day lives they just want to get back to work. They just want to pay their rent, buy food and save up for retirement. And they all feel like they are the only adults that know what they need.

Is this sustainable in the economic system we have in place? The current system is based on oil and car manufacture to keep it going. It also leads us to war every 10 years or so ..Is this an acceptable system ?

Mobile 155

It must seem more acceptable to society. They have time after picked this system over shared collectivism. The very system the adults kept pushing for, mass dense living, compacted mass transit, maximized seating for food, entertainment, sports seems to be the system killing people today. If not then they wouldn’t suggest social distancing as a solution. If not isolation wouldn’t be called for. So far I haven’t seen a functioning better system at work. Maybe you could link us to one?

the point is people are protesting to get things back to what they are used to. If there were a better system someone should be able to point to it now when this one is on pause. At least that is how it looks to me.

350htrr

The only reason that there is a Lockdown/a 6' separation law, IMO is to keep the health care system from collapsing... It is NOT going to stop the spread, it is NOT going to stop the virus, it is meant to slow it down, IMO it is here to stay... and... we will end up dealing with it, just like the flue virus, a certain % will die and the rest will live... it"s that simple. as I see it anyways..

Mobile 155

If your assumption is correct then the plan and the experts that made it are as far off as the peak oil, total melting of the polar ice caps and Manhattan being under water. If saving the health care system was a reason then there must be some interesting board meetings going on by now. https://www.salon.com/2020/04/18/cas...aff-shortages/

Whatever conspiracy theories we might have, and yes I have heard the one about this being an attempt by the UN and WHO to equalize the worlds wealth. I am not as interested in that as I am in how we are going to look at transportation and human density in the future. While some have been hording toilet paper, pasta, beans and hand sanitizer others have cleared the shelves of gun stores of ammunition and weapons.(google it) It does not sound like we are coming together on this to me.

My question hasn't changed. Are we going to modify dense housing, dense transportation and maximum capacity for restaurants, sporting events and movies or might we learn to watch movies and sporting events from home with no people at the event? I will confess to a slight feeling of dread as the lift the shelter in place and we have to drive into Dallas to visit the my wife's pain management doctor. By the way I also wondered why Covid 19 closed the country and the flu season didn't? Because I am pretty sure subways, buses and trains are just as bad for spreading the flu as it is this virus.

350htrr

We are used to the flu virus, this is a new one and the health care and government's are just trying to protect everyone from a new threat we don't have any experience with, thus the seemingly over reaction that more and more people are expressing is going to fail...and we will get used to this virus also... eventually... Killing the economy could be 100X worse in the long run... JMO...

rossiny

any economy that is built on killing earth will self destruct, probably in 1 or 2 generations .
A system based on selling like over 70 million cars per year , and airline industry where the jumbo jet pulls up with people packed in like sardines and fills up with 36000 gallons of fuel .
Also who the hell is jet setting around daily ? Yeah very sustainable. Multiply this by how many billion people have increased since like 1930 and the mathematical part is even scarier.

350htrr

Yea, but that is a different problem... My point is that we will go back to the same culture as before and treat this virus as any other virus... ignore it basically in normal day to day living like the flu... Just like we ignore the fact that we will all die, we live life not even thinking about that part even tho we all know it will happen. There may be some changes, not shaking hands, not hugging everyone, not not washing ones hands...

Mobile 155

And once again, with some dancing and weaving we have come to a general agreement. We shall see. I got to go to a restaurant last night. It was even farther out of town than were I live. The customers were seated outside and no one other than the servers and staff has masks. I cannot express how it made me feel to see what looked like normal people. By the way the brisket was fantastic. I don't know what the new normal will look like but I could live with what I saw last night.

Mobile 155

This might sound a bit like rubbing salt into the wounds of some but I will risk it. When I first joined this forum there was speculation that if the Redstar or Bandini ever hit the air conditioner people would flock to bicycles and mass transit in droves and abandon cars in a minute. I haven't seen that move. And Some were looking at Denmark as leading the way. However working from home and other alternatives seem to be more realistic. And how has Denmark dealt with the crisis for entertainment? https://consequenceofsound.net/2020/...SgxtFNQMWxL5Ds

Realize I see the irony in this but it did make me smile realizing some find the Car as a solution. If this catches on along with drive up churches they might have to rename this forum, or at least the introduction. And yes I know it could be a short solution but it was funny to see where it came from.