Whoa, wait a minute here.

History is no good predicting life after the oil age, because all of last 140 years of history is based on oil.

It was also inconceivable to Easter Islanders that they would descend into a generations-long maelstrom of cannabalism after they cut down their last trees, and could not longer build boats for travel or fishing.

There is no reason why things can't unravel as quickly as they were spun.

I am in total agreement. But at least we can raise our own kids properly.

I was getting kind of depressed over the entire matter recently, and my son came up to me and said, "Don't worry, Dad... in our family, we know how to ride bikes." Just what I needed to hear.

Things could unravel very fast indeed. For most people the apocalypse will arrive in the form of email that begins "We reget to inform you that your job has been eliminated" and ends with "Best of luck in your future endeavors."

There is another thread with a link to an interesting "article" about the end of oil age....

Aaron:)

You mean exporting skilled and professional jobs to low wage countries, concentrating ownership of capital into a small number of hands, then maybe moving the remaining management jobs and corporate headquarters to a sunnier and friendlier place such as, say, Dubai? Don't look back, something's gaining on us...

Things could unravel pretty slowly too. I have the feeling that in 25 years time, we will look back at the 1973 oil shortage and the 2003 Iraq war as pieces of the same phenomena, just as the war in Sudan and the ice-free Northwest passage may be related. Many events may not be nearly as catastrophic as we imagine now. I was reading an article about how Cuba went "cold turkey" in its use of cheap Russian oil round about 1990. Life wasn't easy at first, but they did manage to survive and they are still eating today... and I still think we will live to see bike lanes on most freeways in the US :)

gerv,
I have read several articles on the Cuban oil crisis, one thing that comes to mind is the government had the "ability" to quash any opposition to any plans by anyone other than the government. Information on that aspect of the change over is very sparse. However, I am very impressed by their advances in preventive medicine and general adaptability. Personally I think something like that happening to the US could be a good thing, it would get people off their fat butts; face it probably 2/3's of the American public could stand a reduction in diet and a hour of exercise a day. I agree in that I don't think it is going to hit all at once, there may be pockets of panic when certain things occur but those can be worked through. I do honestly believe that the US economy will take a hard hit, but consider it to be a form of "adjustment".

Aaron:)

Personally, I think that he is right, the auto age is ending, however it will be a more gradual process, then most of the doomsayers predict. Fuel prices will head up, in the United States, like many other places, people will first move to smaller cars. The average car in Canada for example has a 4 cylinder engine of 2L or less displacement, but with gas at $1/L (over $3.80/ US Gallon), this is reasonable. The next stage is that people will reduce their driving, they will move back to cities, to be closer to their jobs, shopping, social activities, as fuel prices, due to limited supply, continue to increase. A good indication of this, is in Ontario, Canada where a refinery fire, reduced supplies, prices went up about 20c/Litre overnight. This is a temporary situation, but what about when (not if, but when) shortages become a permanent part of the landscape.

I expect that the next 5 years will see much smaller cars, and the end of the SUV. 10 years will see densification and redeveloping of cities to reduce automotive dependance, and 25 years will see very few automobiles. Could be as long as 35 years before the last automobile goes out of service.

Weird that you say history is no guide, then use a historical analogy to make your point. ;)

My point in the example of automotive technology being adopted within 20 years kind of made the point you were making too. It's very difficult to predict the future, especially when technology is involved. The doomsayers predict that no technological fixes will emerge in the cases of global warming and peak oil, but we can no more predict what will occur in 2027 than R.E. Olds or Henry Ford could predict that the auto would rule the worls only 20 years after they made their first primitive models.

IMO, your prediction is the most likely. I do think that there will come a time when people will experiment with electric cars, probably recharged mainly by fission-generated electricity. I don't like that option, but I think it's likely.

Or maybe they will build oil rig like, solar power electrolysis machines out at sea to capture hydrogen gas and we'll switch to hydrogen vehicles once oil is definitively run out.

It sticks in my mind that there have been predictions made years ago in which we should have already run out of oil. In my guesstimates, we've got at least another 50-100 years. There are a lot of untapped sources of oil, and as prices go up, it will suddenly become profitable to tap those sources.

Just as a side note, if there were a crises in Saudi Arabia (like in that Dim Ages story), I think that Alberta would step up it's production of oil, and people in Saskatchewan would say "Screw Native Rights" (or whatever it is that's keeping them from drilling oil in Saskatchewan) and Canada would become the next big supplier of oil. I really think it would take a lot to keep oil away from North Americans in the near future. Just my 9 cents (CDN)

I didn't mean you couldn't make historical comparisons ever, I meant that our recent American history, since the Drake oil well in Pennsylvania in 1859-ish, is completely based on oil. Therefore, any predictions of life after oil based on 1859 - 2007 are invalid.

I seriously doubt that the automobile will go away anytime soon. Will the technology behind the car change? Sure. Will it be electric? Maybe. Perhaps charged will solar panels and not even run off the grid. One thing I've come to expect, is that man is supremely resourceful and ingenious. Also, laziness in people will always mean that there will be a market for some form of automated transportation.

IMO, all the doom and gloom predictions here are pretty much unfounded.

Not as crazy as you think. Just outside of the Brooksville/Springhill area in Florida there is a wildlife refuge called Hamasossa Springs (sp?) that they do just that. Their power comes from hydrogen cells that are fueld by solar power. They even have an exibit of the actual working "power plant", if you could call it such a thing.

I went to a lecture by James Howard Kunstler.
He told us an amusing story about a lecture he gave at Google headquarters.
So, he was giving his spiel to the Google people and he could tell they weren't buying it.
One guy asks, "Dude, what about technology?"
Kunstler whips out a picture of a jet airliner and says, "Dude, this doesn't run on technology."
He also stated that the context of the word "Dude" used by the questioner meant ass hole.

Being a software developer, I can sort of see the Google reaction to Kunstler. We are deeply fascinated with our technology -- it's a voodoo religion in many respects. We look at in the same way people in the 19th century viewed science, like it could solve any problem.

However, I also understand the pitfalls of overspecialization. You get the idea that your specialty can solve all problems. Only to discover that you can't engineer yourself out of every problem, particularly the ones your specialty creates.

I don't see the united states running out of oil in 25 years, because we can just take it. ITER(international thermal-nuclear experimental reator) http://www.iter.org/ if it works won't be commercialy available until 100+ years from now.

World oil supply still plentiful, study shows http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15715744/?GT1=8717 what this reports does not factor in is that the population is growing and more nations want to be like the United State. The United states only has 5 percent of the world population but uses 26 pecent of the world's oil. I don't see this as a very good study but instead of doom and gloom 25 years from now I think it will be like 50-75 years from now.

I like thinking about the future so here is what I envision:
Everyone is still going have to get to work to make a living, so they will have to adapt or die. Most people live no more then 20 miles away from work, riding a bicycle at 10mph will get them there in 2hrs or 4hrs total. 2/3 of Americans are overweight anyways so the gyms won't be very popular anymore and we watch too much tv anyways. So a person that has 40miles a day to bicycle will spend 8hrs sleeping, 8hrs working, 4hrs cycling to/from work, 1hr to get ready for work leaving 3hrs left to do whatever. During the 4hrs. commute that indiviual can listen to ipod or radio, ipods can store all kinds of informative stuff like podcast, audiobooks, music, lectures and that is what the radio of the future might be like or was. There was a time when people gather around a radio before the television came along. 4hrs. commute can be long so we start riding mopeds or smaller cars.

Similary to nature the weak will die and the stronger will live to pass on their DNA. Some industries like the airline/trucking will die giving rise to the rail/monorail industry. People all over the world are already living in a post-peak oil world we Americans will do the same. My parents came from Vietnam where the average person makes about $2-$5 bucks a day, and they make that money stretch. The future post peak oil world is already happening in other countries all around, just look at them for a glimpse of the "future".

35 years ago we were driving cars around on the moon. About the same time the U. S. was still energy independent and the world's largest creditor nation. Houses were easily affordable by young families.

The progress in consumer electronics has been a pleasant surprise, but in many significant ways the future prospects for the U. S. are much dimmer than they were 35 years ago.

OH, it's all goin to hell in a handbasket and none-too-soon. Donkey's and Bike's will rule in all hope

Good points.

I'm not so sure the world as a whole would allow us to "just take it" for any extended period. I would predict the world community banding together against us in that scenario. We are powerful, but neither militarily nor economically are we strong enough to take on a united world front. I suspect they could make short work of us.

IMHO, the way to go is alternative fuels. The rest of the world should benefit from our assistance in going alternative as well.

In the original #1 post, there were some questions I would like to answer here.

What are your predictions for the next 25 years?

I see a great departure from private car use. The cost of car ownership, the dipping of the middle income or lower to a rather depressing level of existance (no more electronic toys), and the enviromental concerns will drive the crowds away from cars except for business or transporting a large amount of people or goods.

Will the car survive?

Not in it's present form. I see a limited use within families if they could actually afford one by renting, leasing, or borrowing might be an option, and business use won't change much.

Will you be driving a Hummer?

Except for the few very rich, military, police, or other such organizations, no I do not.

Well ... we're about 8 years into the 25 now. Are your predictions any closer to coming true?

It already is. The anti-austerity response to long-term recession and energy reforms in both the US and EU have been pronounced. People experience the transition to lower-energy usage as a form of starvation, e.g. as portrayed in the Hunger Games (except there was also food-shortages in that movie).

Governments can't really mandate the kinds of transitions that would normalize and streamline sustainable living and industry so we end up with fiscal-stimulus projects (and consumerism) geared toward revitalizing the unsustainable industries and lifestyles the majority are familiar with. As long as people go along with the rat race of taking whatever jobs pay, they will continue to invest their effort into sustaining the unsustainable industries and practices.

Consciousness is rising, however, and I think many people are growing impatient with the perpetuation of wasteful nonsense. The question is whether they/we will be able to satisfy the resistance of the multitudes who simply refuse to understand that their bad choices are destroying the future. They think it's all a big trick to manipulate them and take away their freedom and that anything is possible, sustainable, and good if the economy (with the help of government) just pays for it (and continues paying for it, no matter how much financial manipulation of markets is needed to do so).

Some of them, yes. Predictions about the demise of the middle class still hold, even though the Great Recession has officiallybeen over for a few years now.For example, these predictions from this thread still have a lot of truth: