From a planning standpoint, and just in general, it would be good to understand what's driving these changes to driving habits. I don't mean a parade of ideas that sound good, depending on the listener. I'm not sure what more there is though.

Every individual goes through specific processes of decision making. Still there are patterns of influence, cultural thought, etc. All you can really do is consider one factor at a time, or a several factors in tandem, and loosely consider that the particular scenario you imagine may apply to all, many, or just some people and situations. There is too much variation 'out there' to really hypothesize accurately in any meaningful way. Large scale data collection and statistical analysis makes it seem as if we can understand large aggregates in a meaningful way, but I believe this is an artifact of our mind's ability to digest relationships between numbers and project assumptions onto the people and situations whose data was used to generate those numbers.

Yes, I am a firm believer that there is usually a "thing behind the thing" when it comes to people and their behavior. Most people are not even aware that they are isolating themselves. Cars are inherently isolating.... for example imagine yourself at a red light for a long period of time, or in a traffic jam on a freeway. You are physically very close to many people, yet exquisitely isolated. Would you make eye contact with the person stuck in traffic next to you. Or would you avoid eye contact because it feels "awkward"? Most people pull back from and try to escape even *very* tiny amounts of relational uncomfortableness, such as in this example. Living in the suburbs is even better, as you can drive your car directly into your garage, close the door, and you can effectively never have to so much as look at or speak to your neighbors.

But as I said, this is not a new revelation about the souls of people. See Robert Frost's "Mending Wall", for example. Human souls are old things, and they haven't changed since they were first new.... we still prefer comfort, ease, and the illusion of safety to real wisdom or self-understanding.

I'll venture a guess that in five hundred or one thousand years, there will be no more automobiles. But it won't be because people will have changed; they'll still seek what is easy and individualistic. As it relates to transportation, at least, only the technology and source(s) of energy will have changed.

College, would that be like having 200 virtual friends you have never met but talk to by computer? Or maybe your smart phone?

Hmmm.... I spent my years on Façadebook just like everyone else. I quit years ago because it left me feeling unfulfilled and frustrated. I am not the kind of person who enjoys superficial friviality. My joys are deep and my sorrows are deep. Facebook was not a good fit for me! :D

While superficial.... as a former user(abuser?) I can recognize people's addiction to social media as at least *some* desire for relationship. Even if incredibly superficial, engaging in it seems to imply a desire for connection. In other words.... at least it's the right idea and my heart wants to give people credit for that.

My hope is, even someone with a tiny amount of emotional sensitivity can eventually be honest with themself that Facebook fails to give us what we really need and long for. If they adapt in a healthier direction, that will be wisdom gained.

I see automobiles as much more subtle. Much more enabling toward self-isolation and relationship aversion. Possibly because there is still a little stigma associated with social media shut-ins, yet NO stigma associated with abuse of automobiles (in the relational sense).

In fact.... there's rather a stigma if you *don't* own an auto wouldn't you agree? Ever gotten a dirty look or been treated like a space cadet because you choose to bike instead of drive? There is TONS of stigma for driving in a way that is respectful of others. At or below the speed limit? Actually stopping at the stop signs? Give bikes or pedestrians the right of way?.... I get tailgated, honked at, stink eyed and flipped off all the time for doing those things.

Prevailing attitudes are (and what I used to believe and practice years ago) that as a 'Merican, your auto and the roads are for you and your needs and your pleasures, damn everyone else. If you act contrary to this, there is stigma against you. This is what I mean.... far more subtle, the social pressure to be Pro-auto makes it far more cammoflaged a trap.

Believe me, it's a hard sell to convince anyone that their car is a primary factor in why their lives suck. Lots of people know their life sucks, but haven't a clue why. I only try to share my experiences with people I love because I know how lonely and frustrating it is to have a life that sucks.

I don't think Kunstler was suggesting all car activity was going to be replaced by bikes, rather that use of cars was going to change. That could include people switching to other modes of commuting to work, or driving less for recreational or other purposes.
Vehicle sales dropped almost by half during the recession, so some of that "bouncing back" is simply delayed replacement, so if trucks were the most popular vehicle prior to the recession, it makes sense that many of the people who are replacing their aging vehicles are replacing trucks with trucks. Also, the reduction in driving is probably a more urban phenomenon, so you would probably expect that any "rebound" has more of a suburban/rural flavour, where more people drive trucks.

I'm not sure the "40 year slump" in bikes is directly relevant here. The huge bike boom in the 1970s was mostly recreational, not transportational, and it occurred while cars were also booming. It's not like people were choosing bikes over cars back then.

In my city there's a huge trend for people to move closer together - we have a massive and continuing downtown building boom.

Make relevant what you want and disregard what you like. That is what forums like this are for. 1.1 percent is less than 9 out of 10 households with a car. As far as the increase in urban cycling it still must be pretty small. And with the migration trends in the US it shouldn't get much larger I wouldn't think. From a group on your side of the political spectrum. Americans Flee The Northeast Because It's The Northeast

And one maybe not: Why are Americans fleeing the Northeast? | New York Post

In truth not much has changed in 20 years has it?

I don't know if it is a trap. But maybe I see people as more aware than some do. I see people as having made the choice because they wanted to, they budgeted it and see an advantage that they don't have without it. They can live where they want and not be limited in the direction they have to find work, education for their kids, Work in one direction and school in another. I get your point about the stigma but to most of the people I know I am the bicycle guy. Then they also know I have access to a car if I so choose.

I also agree it will be hard to convince anyone that the car they wanted so much they took out a loan for caused their life to suck as you say. Just as an private observation my sister drove a mass transit bus till she retired. She never took the bus to work even when she could. And one of the most common things she said she had heard from her customers was, "As soon as I can get a car I will never ride the bus again.

Now it quite possibly could be the unwillingness to try and connect with others in a complicated dance of social interaction. But I wonder how much of that is fear of getting close to people who want to hurt or take from you. That being money, goods or simply taking advantage of others. The media may exacerbate these feelings when we see people killing each other in Baltimore, Chicago, Pittsburg, Cleveland and yes LA almost every night. And who shoots most of them? Neighbors, or at least that is who is being reported as doing the killings. So yes a car may give you some feeling of separation or even protection. But like your original statement I don't think cars are the cause but rather what people see as the solution to those complicated social interactions. As one poster put it earlier we tend to live in places we see as more socially acceptable or at least strive to move to such places. As you posted it is Natural.

Many reasons have been mentioned, from student loans to cell phones to urbanization.

This would make a good thread of its own. I hope you will start one. We should have a number of people who are trying to drive less, and they must have their reasons.

How many people, though isolated in automobiles, are driving to parties, family reunions, church services, political rallies, shopping malls, lecture halls, Memorial Day beaches, and other crowded places where they will (presumably) enjoy the company of many other humans?

From 0.6% to 1.0%. In other words, the number of cyclists almost doubled in only four years, assuming that the denominator is about the same. At that rate, 100% of commutes will be by bicycle in less than 25 years. ;) Seriously, I'm going to claim that as a victory.

You should check the mpg data on 2015 pickup trucks compared to 2007 models. They are definitely not the same vehicle in anything but name. You should also check the figures on used car sales. I believe you have made a mistake.

Or maybe it's because most bus service in the US is designed to squash as many (mostly poor) people into uncomfortable steel boxes and to move them as slowly as possible to wind-swept bus stops that are only somewhat close to their actual destinations.

To build something sucky, and then to despise it because it sucks--not very logical!

We've had broad discussions on those demographic issues before but I thought we were discussing ****zler's prediction. Just to address your two links, one is a New York Post political article that claims people are moving from the northeast to Texas to escape taxes - nothing to do with cars. Furthermore, as discussed previously, it's wrong. Both the Northeast and Texas are growing, but Texas is growing faster largely because more immigrants are settling there (link to follow), The other is a Huffington Post commentary on the first article, that partially rebuts it and adds that the trend is also partly due to retirees from the Northeast moving somewhere warm.

In any event, a right wing columnist distorting demographic data to support his low tax bias doesn't have much to do with this thread, nor is it on my "side of the political spectrum".

In 1968..... a drafting assignment in High School... was to draw a futurist automobile... as one would expect to be produced in in the year 2000. I got a C... as the teacher thought my drawing resembled the THEN current model Oldsmobile Toronado.

http://bikeforums.net/attachment.php...hmentid=454726

He was correct. I misunderstood the assignment. I was realistic about the expectations of future progress. Twenty five years from today.... a full 20% of the cars produced this year will still be on the road. Expect very little change.

Your ability to predict the future hasn't improved much since high school, although I guess you've learned more about making up numbers.

An actual car from model year 2000:

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...cord_Sedan.jpg

Roody, some valid points. But .5 to .6 percent increase in 30-40 years is still pretty slow.

I agree the way they design busses and bus services are bad. As my sister often said, a driver can never be in trouble for being late, running cold, but they can be cited for running hot, being early.

Still cars aren't going away in our lifetime and the cars people prefer and drive have stayed pretty constant since the op's post. And if they continue as they are today the only difference will be how they are powered.

They are still building new roads and in my area new freeways and if your so oft lament of more roads only means more cars is true then what results do you expect?

I'm linking that to my car free predictions thread - hope we're both around to see it!

Yes, they are still building roads in your area, which happens to be gaining population at a high rate. The road system is (or should be) mostly complete in many parts of the world which are not gaining in population. Of course, that doesn't stop them from trying (and failing) to cram ever increasing numbers of cars onto existing roads.

Also, remember that roads are used by vehicles other than cars--notably bicycles, trucks, and buses.

Is your region covered by a Complete Streets regulation? These require that new streets (or rebuilt streets) must be designed to be shared by cars, buses, bikes, and pedestrians. My area is covered on three levels--statewide, county, and city. But these regulations are even more effective in areas that have ongoing new road construction, such as where you live.

I want to go off-topic for just a minute. I just want to say that even though I almost always disagree with you, I find your thoughtfulness and respect on the forum to be very enjoyable. You pretty much always show that one can disagree without being disagreeable. I try to do the same, but often fall short. So thanks very much! :)

True, this thread (as are much of the recent "discussion"on LCF) is mostly about the "imaginative" speculation and conjuring of posters from the Age of Aquarius to New Age Political Correctness spectrum.

Posted thought or opinions from outside of that spectrum might be considered a troll or maybe even an insult by some members of that LCF spectrum who wish to control/direct all "discussion" on this list.

I'm getting more and more certain you are an AI trollbot.

As if on cue! :roflmao2:

Not funny, not cute, not appreciated. You express no opinions of your own. You just assault the opinions of others. So boring.

What do you think about the topic? Or if you have no actual thoughts or opinions, if you are a pure reactionary, silence is golden.

Actually, that was my point.

Double down on "as if on cue"; another would-be "discussion controller" pipes in.
I already stated that the "topic" as discussed on this list is is mostly about the "imaginative" speculation and conjuring of posters from the Age of Aquarius to New Age Political Correctness spectrum. My opinion is that the topic of discussion is just another naval gazing/P&R exercise with little if any practical relevance to anyone Living Car Free or bicycling.

Discussion killer, in your case. And now, time to push the "Ignore" button. Buh-bye.