The End of Oil but the Rise of Fumes?
05-13-08, 08:54 AM
#26
Humvee of bikes =Worksman
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 5,362
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 10 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 6 Times
in
6 Posts
My predictions for a two year time frame:
Retired and otherwise unemployed people will stick with cars but simply do less driving. There will be lots more people in this category, too.
Families with jobs and children will also stick with cars. They'll do the same amount of driving but with smaller vehicles.
Young single people are the ones who will increasingly choose to use scooters and bicycles. They will be in a position to make their life choices so as to reduce car dependency.
As between scooters and bikes, I think bicycles will be more popular. The scooter has few of the advantages we associate with cars, such as climate control, the ability to haul cargo, protection in crashes, visibility in traffic, protection from theft, etc. The bicycle makes a personal statement that "I am physically vigorous, mentally alert, and I can deal with just about anything." The scooter does not.
Retired and otherwise unemployed people will stick with cars but simply do less driving. There will be lots more people in this category, too.
Families with jobs and children will also stick with cars. They'll do the same amount of driving but with smaller vehicles.
Young single people are the ones who will increasingly choose to use scooters and bicycles. They will be in a position to make their life choices so as to reduce car dependency.
As between scooters and bikes, I think bicycles will be more popular. The scooter has few of the advantages we associate with cars, such as climate control, the ability to haul cargo, protection in crashes, visibility in traffic, protection from theft, etc. The bicycle makes a personal statement that "I am physically vigorous, mentally alert, and I can deal with just about anything." The scooter does not.
There will be a time when less is more and the young will have to learn that.
__________________
My preferred bicycle brand is.......WORKSMAN CYCLES
I dislike clipless pedals on any city bike since I feel they are unsafe.
Originally Posted by krazygluon
Steel: nearly a thousand years of metallurgical development
Aluminum: barely a hundred, which one would you rather have under your butt at 30mph?
My preferred bicycle brand is.......WORKSMAN CYCLES
I dislike clipless pedals on any city bike since I feel they are unsafe.
Originally Posted by krazygluon
Steel: nearly a thousand years of metallurgical development
Aluminum: barely a hundred, which one would you rather have under your butt at 30mph?
05-14-08, 11:33 AM
#27
Sophomoric Member
Not for a looooong time, the technology for the fuel cells just isn't there, and is not even close to being where we need it for automobiles. Not to mention the issues of safely transporting, storing, and refueling vehicles with Hydrogen. Then there are the issues of infrastructure, which needs to take into account what method we use to produce Hydrogen.
Basically what I am saying is Hydrogen powered cars will not be here anytime soon (think 4 to 5, maybe even 6 decades)
Basically what I am saying is Hydrogen powered cars will not be here anytime soon (think 4 to 5, maybe even 6 decades)
__________________
"Think Outside the Cage"
05-14-08, 01:00 PM
#28
RacingBear
You forgot motorcycles. 
There will be a greater shift to those then scooters or bicycles. As for personal statement... 
Image my friend matters, and right now bicycle just doesn't portray the image to support that statement. Specially the one used for commuting, utilities.
There will be a greater shift to those then scooters or bicycles. As for personal statement... Image my friend matters, and right now bicycle just doesn't portray the image to support that statement. Specially the one used for commuting, utilities.My predictions for a two year time frame:
Retired and otherwise unemployed people will stick with cars but simply do less driving. There will be lots more people in this category, too.
Families with jobs and children will also stick with cars. They'll do the same amount of driving but with smaller vehicles.
Young single people are the ones who will increasingly choose to use scooters and bicycles. They will be in a position to make their life choices so as to reduce car dependency.
As between scooters and bikes, I think bicycles will be more popular. The scooter has few of the advantages we associate with cars, such as climate control, the ability to haul cargo, protection in crashes, visibility in traffic, protection from theft, etc. The bicycle makes a personal statement that "I am physically vigorous, mentally alert, and I can deal with just about anything." The scooter does not.
Retired and otherwise unemployed people will stick with cars but simply do less driving. There will be lots more people in this category, too.
Families with jobs and children will also stick with cars. They'll do the same amount of driving but with smaller vehicles.
Young single people are the ones who will increasingly choose to use scooters and bicycles. They will be in a position to make their life choices so as to reduce car dependency.
As between scooters and bikes, I think bicycles will be more popular. The scooter has few of the advantages we associate with cars, such as climate control, the ability to haul cargo, protection in crashes, visibility in traffic, protection from theft, etc. The bicycle makes a personal statement that "I am physically vigorous, mentally alert, and I can deal with just about anything." The scooter does not.
05-14-08, 01:32 PM
#29
Senior Member
Join Date: May 2005
Location: IL-USA
Posts: 1,859
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 111 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 5 Times
in
5 Posts
"...Hydrogen is a nice idea but the low energy densities coupled with the lack of a distribution infrastructure mean it's even farther off into the future than electric vehicles are. ..."
Take a look at this chart--specifically the column that's titled "energy density by volume":
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_...ge_and_in_fuel
The value of a vehicle fuel is its energy density, because you must carry the fuel around to burn it in the moving vehicle. Among liquid combustible fuels, hydrogen has among the lowest fuel densities of all:
Liquid hydrogen = 10.1 MJ/L
Gasoline = 34.6 MJ/L
So that means that if you start with a car that runs on gasoline and convert it to run on liquid hydrogen, you would need a hydrogen tank that was three and a half times larger than the gas tank in order for the car to travel the same total distance on one tankful of liquefied hydrogen.
It also means that the fuel distribution system (that is, hydrogen distillation plants, tanker trucks and gas stations) would need to transport and distribute three and a half times as much liquefied hydrogen as the volume of gasoline that is distributed now.
Hydrogen simply isn't going to substitute for motor fuel anytime soon.
The problem is not that you can't build a car that will burn hydrogen--that part is easy. The problem is that the volume of hydrogen that would be required by all motor vehicles doing this would simply be far larger than what any country has the capability to supply and distribute.
~
05-16-08, 02:34 PM
#30
Junior Member
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 9
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 0 Times
in
0 Posts
not to mention the fact that hydrogen leaks through solid steel canisters, in the process embrittling them, (look it up.) and must be pressurized to dangerously high levels to store it at any density. (in the process using additional energy.)
Of course, another difference between hydrogen and gasoline is that all hydrogen must be manufactured- in essence becoming a form of rechargeable battery. An extremely inefficient, dangerous and expensive one.
Regular batteries look far more practical for everyday transportation use, to me.
Of course, another difference between hydrogen and gasoline is that all hydrogen must be manufactured- in essence becoming a form of rechargeable battery. An extremely inefficient, dangerous and expensive one.
Regular batteries look far more practical for everyday transportation use, to me.
05-16-08, 02:56 PM
#31
Senior Member
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Charleston, WV
Posts: 1,768
Bikes: Trek Mountaineer modified with a NuVinci; Montegue Paratrooper folding mountain bike; Greenspeed recumbent; Surly Big Dummy with Stokemonkey
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 2 Times
in
2 Posts
And where are you going to GET the hydrogen? The best way I know to get it is to use electricity to extract it from water. And whence comes the electricity? In most places from burning coal or natural gas.
05-17-08, 09:58 PM
#32
Sophomoric Member
I'm not trying to make a case for hydrogen. I'm just saying that those who make bold predictions about future technologies often end up making fools of themselves. History is full of examples of very rapid revolutions in technology. What seems impossible today will be commonplace in a few years.
Overall, and getting back on topic, my only prediction is that cars will be with us for a long time. There won't be mainstream adoption of bicycles or scooter, although they will probably be popular alternatives. Fuels will change, but people will still want to drive. This isn't what I want to happen, it's what I think will happen.
Overall, and getting back on topic, my only prediction is that cars will be with us for a long time. There won't be mainstream adoption of bicycles or scooter, although they will probably be popular alternatives. Fuels will change, but people will still want to drive. This isn't what I want to happen, it's what I think will happen.
__________________
"Think Outside the Cage"
