Has "Peak OIl" peaked?
 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-18353962


Seems to be a pretty popular idea when gas prices are through the roof, but when prices are gradually increased, no one seems to realize that the resource is finite.

As long as people want to move independently there will be some form of energy and some type of vehicle to let them achieve it. Industries will always be around to provide vehicles and fuel.

I heard a scientist say that natural gas is the fuel we should be using for our vehicles because there is so much of it and it is so much cheaper than refined oil.

The only thing that bothers me about new oil and gas production is the destruction of the environment, especially the water table. I don't want every house to require its own water purification system to remove the oil and other toxins from the aquifers.

I cannot find the reference, but the general consensus seems that we reached the peak of conventional oil production between 2006-2008. There is also an article out about the cost of getting and processing oil. In the 1950's the ratio was better than 3:1 today it is much closer to 1:1, in other words, it costs nearly as much to get oil out of the ground as to what it is worth. The investment to get to much of the "new" oil supplies is staggering and cost prohibitive.

Aaron :)

I agree with wahoonc*, it's already happened... It's just that people don't want to believe it has...

Make no mistake about it the oil companies , as well as various gov't's, are moving quietly to develop alternate fuel sources as well as alternate energy sources that they will once again have a monopoly over.

Good article.

The writer states that there is now an abundance of "cheap" oil on the market! Is he kidding me? Gasoline while maybe abundant, is no longer cheap. The oil companies and speculators are making sure Americans pay the price for oil even though there is an abundance.

Also, I looked all over and attempts have been made to mine for shale oil but they have not been successful. According to WikiPedia, Shale Oil costs $95 dollars a barrel to produce but I doubt it. If it were that cheap, companies would be drilling all over the country but I suspect it must be twice that.

Finally, the price of gas is only one factor that keeps me car free. In fact, it happens to be the lowest factor of all.

Top 5 Factors Why I'm Car Free

1. No Monthly Payments
2. No High Insurance Payments
3. No High Repair bills
4. No Parking fees or traffic tickets.
5. No Gas bills.

The only people who really know how much oil is still available are not posting in this thread. Anything posted here is an opinion at best.

There are gobs and big gobs of oil, oil is plentiful. Anyone only needs to look out the window and count the cars.

Here's the IEA saying that we peaked in 2006: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iKkIS...feature=relmfu

For a while I worried about the idea of peak oil and how the fuel would eventually be so expensive that the economy and world trade would collapse. Eventually I recognized that as long as somebody can profit from providing fuel of some type, humanity would continue to do its thing. A peak oil problem would revitalize the USA because it would be cheaper to build things in the USA than to ship them from around the world to get here. Local farmers would benefit from this in a big way.

We've had a big economic crash and it wasn't totally about oil prices. It was about banks and Wall Street traders making bets and losing. Fuel prices are just a component of the economic problems. The prices drop when demand drops (up to a point). If there were truly a free market in energy then gasoline and diesel would cost much less than it does now.

If the IEA said it Then it must be true, right?

No, but the IEA would be the last people on earth to say the world has peaked in conventional oil production if it wasn't actually so. Remember, the IEA deals with global energy figures. Can you imagine what would happen if they said something as big as "the world has peaked in oil production" and it wasn't true? Who would trust what they had to say in the future.

Of course, there's half the room of oil geologists at the Australian Exploration and Production Conference who believe we have peaked and referenced in this video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l0MWDQ6JPTo starting at 3:50. But, I guess all of them could be wrong too. :rolleyes:

Adjusted for inflation, gas prices right now are high, but not as high as most people think. I agree with your reasons for being carfree. Fuel expenses are variable--when prices are high you can drive less or get a more efficient car. The other prices you mentioned are more or less fixed, and you can't do much to change them.

http://inflationdata.com/Inflation/i..._price_med.jpg

http://inflationdata.com/Inflation/I..._Inflation.asp

I think we'd be better off if we ran out of fossil fuels sooner than later. Instead of shifting to greener alternatives, such as conservation (cycling, mass transit, insulating buildings, etc.), reduced meat consumption and renewable energy sources, we are suicidalling chasing after whatever dirty fuels are left, no matter what the cost to the environment. Fracking, mountain top removal, exploitation of fragile wildlife areas and polar regions that have been left exposed by the melting ice caps...anything goes to satiate our desire for these outdated and life-threatening fossil fuels.

That's the Peak Oil story of 2012. We buy into the myth that technology will keep the resource on tap and do absolutely nothing to replace it.

The truth is though that losing even a small chunk of the supply would have grave consequences.

Roody's chart above points out that prices aren't really that bad. But if you look at how dependent we are today on petroleum products vs. 1918, the picture gets truly scary.

In 1918, the internal combustion car had not yet been declared the winner. It was still possible the steam power or electric cars would rule the day. Cheap gas was one of the main reasons that the ICE won out We're in a similar position right now, in that it isn't clear which fuel/engine system will win next. If governments continue to subsidize cheap oil, I think it will still be used for a bit longer. Long enough, probably, to really fry our climate and start a couple more ugly wars.

So what is preventing the coal industry and the electric industry from beating the petroleum industry? They have lobbyists too. It would seem to me that coal plus electric would win because there are numerous parts of the electrical side. There are the hydro-electric people, the photovoltaic electric people, the wind farm electric people, the green energy people, and other solar conversion types, and the nasty nuclear power types who would want electric cars to win over petroleum and gas automobiles. Let's not forget about natural gas power plants too though they are part of the petroleum side.

This must be about entrenched technologies and fearful politicians. If the motor vehicle industry wanted to lead they would but they don't. Politicians can't even mandate Flex Fuel cars today. They don't lead they do as they're told by their political benefactors. Maybe they're comfortable with the current money contributors because they are reliable, whereas the coal and other electrical industries haven't been kicking in their share regularly enough to make the politicians feel that the funding will ensure re-elections.

We and the politicians know that the USA has enough fuel resources to power the nation, including electrical vehicles. The politicians just won't lead. It is for such reasons that most of the times I vote it is for getting the lesser of two evils instead of hoping for a positive change.

Eh? :eek: WOW, Head in the sand much?

Could you please expand on your rude comment?

Talking about ANWAR. Some people think it's the salvation of the nation's energy situation. I see it as a strategic reserve that we shouldn't be in any hurry to exploit, so long as there are other affordable sources.

It may have been a little rude, but come on... Anyone who thinks that the USA or most any other country really has enough resources to keep going when the oil runs out is dreaming or is like the ostrich, (a metaphor I tied to use in a smartass way) Now if everyone ACTUALLY was studiously working on having a civilization without oil, it certainly could be done, but not if we wait like most everyone is waiting right now, as once the oil is in short supply, industries and government will fail as it takes too long to switch quickly as will be necessitated then... JMO from what I see happening...

I agree, and this post is so much more convincing than the previous one!

Of course one problem is that people are able to grasp the concept of peak oil, but unable or unwilling to adopt personal changes that would make the peak less threatening.

Somehow, though, I seem to be able to deal with people who ignore the problem rather than people who adopt a half-measure. For example, replacing their gas guzzler with a hybrid or electric vehicle. The thought of building an infrastructure (like say hydrogen...) that hadn't been thought through sufficiently.... is really frightening.

If you throw all you eggs in a basket and then discover that basket has a large whole...

IMHO, a good solution for Peak OIl would be to invest heavily in building more densely populated cities and installing a good transportation infrastructure would really help too. Moving the population to more vegetarian diets. Investing in technology to ensure that not every solution is based on plastics or other petroleum derived products...

These would be steps in the right direction.

I wasn't really trying to convince anyone of any thing, ;) Was just trying to express my SHOCK, DISBELIEF, about his statement...

As for the "fix" There needs to be a MAJOR shift in thinking or we will be starving, and freezing in the dark when oil runs low... Without the change in our "thinking" nothing significant will ever be done until it's too late/probably too late... JMO :twitchy:

And thus the motive behind global warming denial. We need to melt Antarctica so we can drill for oil there.