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Who Will Win The Tour De France?

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Who Will Win The Tour De France?

Old 07-29-15, 03:27 PM
  #1001  
Jaeger99
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Originally Posted by sprince View Post
Contador and Sagan are not prime examples anyway (setting aside their salary requirements), either will do well individually regardless of team budget and support. But you have to wonder what Froome would be on a team with less than 1/3 of Sky's budget, or how well someone like Pinot would do on a team with 8 unbreakable domestiques.
It almost sounds like you're suggesting that this is a team sport, and that having a strong team helps. Not exactly a revelation. Froome is a very strong rider on a very strong team. I don't see where he - or they - need to apologize for it.
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Old 07-29-15, 06:02 PM
  #1002  
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Salary requirements was my point, you allocate your resources for the best chance of success. Who knows how Contador would have done if he hadn't ridden the Giro this year or crashed last year. He may well come back and win next year so it's hard to criticize Saxo for hiring him. He has won a Giro and 2 Vuelta's for them.

There seem to be only a handful or riders capable of winning the tour and that includes riders that would need everything to go right for them and a course that favored them. If Sky had Wiggins this year on this course I don't think he stands a chance, but the year he won the course suited him plus he had maybe the best climber in the world as his domestique.

If any of the so called "Fab 4" show up in shape and avoid crashing and illness I don't think there are any current riders that could beat them even if you put them on Sky. There are some interesting riders out there like Aru and Landa. Neither has proven anything in the Tour which is much more stressful than the other two grand tours. There are a bunch of riders that would need to take a big leap or have a lot go their way to win. I'd put Pinot in this category along with TJ & Bardet.

Sky has gotten lucky with some riders (Froome was supposedly almost let go a few years ago) and has been smart about acquiring and developing others. Their tactics have translated well to the Tour (and the week long stage races) but they certainly haven't had the same success in the Giro or even with their classics team.

It makes for predictable and somewhat boring racing but the Tour is rarely exciting from a GC point of view. There is always intriguing battles lower down or exciting stages.

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Old 07-29-15, 06:40 PM
  #1003  
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Originally Posted by busygizmo View Post
This is probably true but seriously the pot calling the kettle black considering he has Contador and Sagan on his team plus a lot of expensive support riders.
After last year's reaction to losing their respective leaders (Sky disappeared, whereas Tinkoff came out all guns blazing, won 3 stages and the KOM jersey) you would've thought Contador would've been better equipped. It turned out this year Sky were flying and Tinkoff were as prominent in France as they had been in Ialy.
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Old 07-29-15, 07:43 PM
  #1004  
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Originally Posted by Jaeger99 View Post
It almost sounds like you're suggesting that this is a team sport, and that having a strong team helps. Not exactly a revelation. Froome is a very strong rider on a very strong team. I don't see where he - or they - need to apologize for it.
I'm not saying that Froome/Sky should apologize for anything (although they can't deny that they are exploiting a flawed system), but maybe the UCI owes the fans an apology for mismanaging the sport. I understand that in the past there certain teams that dominated the races by virtue of resources. But the business model of the past does nothing for the future of cycling, or the fans that want to see competitive races.
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Old 07-29-15, 10:36 PM
  #1005  
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Perhaps the TDF is going the way of F1, NASCAR, etc. where the success is formulaic around a precise vehicle and a precise team to develop/enter/service that formula vehicle and led by the most able driver. Sky's formula works despite UCI messing with the course (the way golf messes with courses!). The TDF left individual racing in the dust long ago and teams became the preferred vehicle to deliver a champion. Sky is just better at establishing their formula across the entire range of variables including team members. Sky doesn't care about the team championship (ie "manufacturers champioship in F1) because Sky's goal is the bigger individual prize which society values as an individual achievement...delivered by a team.
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Old 07-29-15, 11:20 PM
  #1006  
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This opens up a whole new debate but it's my sincere belief that the removal of car to rider radios and televisions in team cars would liven up flat stages. There is a reason why breakaways are almost always caught now. Gone are the days where a break really had a chance to stay away to the end.

Get rid of radios. Let riders figure it out themselves instead of being little more than slaves to their directors every micromanaged command.
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Old 07-29-15, 11:34 PM
  #1007  
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Originally Posted by sprince View Post
I'm not saying that Froome/Sky should apologize for anything (although they can't deny that they are exploiting a flawed system), but maybe the UCI owes the fans an apology for mismanaging the sport. I understand that in the past there certain teams that dominated the races by virtue of resources. But the business model of the past does nothing for the future of cycling, or the fans that want to see competitive races.
There's been plenty of instances of a dominant team not having the best rider capable of winning the Tour (PDM, Festina, Rabobank in the past). Less frequent is a rider good enough to win the Tour, but not having the support he needed (Scheck's Trek team in 2011 couldn't control the pace enough in the high mountains so Evans was able to survive); it's less frequent because anyone good enough to win a GT usually gets snagged up by the big teams.
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Old 07-30-15, 02:37 AM
  #1008  
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There are hundreds of riders over the years who " could have, should have, would have", but who, when it came down to it, didn't.

Keeps all of us armchair experts arguing.

Top level, and international sport is not, and never will be completely "fair", whatever that means.

The USA basketball team vs Nigeria or Manchester United vs Grimsby at football are not exactly fair when it comes to resources but money will always have a huge influence on standards and results. Cycling is no different.
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Old 02-28-16, 08:35 PM
  #1009  
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Now it's time for new edition of 2016. And this time I support Nairo Quintana, my favorite of Movistar.
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Old 03-05-16, 03:09 AM
  #1010  
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He's my pick too. The route isn't as good for him due to more TT, but I figure if he hadn't lost 1:30 in the cross winds early in the 2015 Tour, he'd have won that.
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Old 03-08-16, 09:44 AM
  #1011  
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Originally Posted by samk2824 View Post
Now it's time for new edition of 2016. And this time I support Nairo Quintana, my favorite of Movistar.
He has been my favorite for the last three years. I am hoping he has a great year this year, and now that he has his brother on the team with him I am very optimistic.
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