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Sagan's Tactics (spoilers)

Old 07-10-18, 01:30 PM
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colombo357
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Sagan's Tactics (spoilers)

Seems like Sagan often carries more speed across the line than the winners, yet loses it by a few inches, if not less than inch.

Is his timing off?

How much of a draft advantage does he really get in a full on sprint if he's 2 bike lengths back? Maybe that's not working out for him?

On today's Stage 4 sprint, I counted 15 seconds for Gaviria's winning sprint. He had a nice leadout from a teammate and led the sprint. Should Sagan have gone out earlier? How does Sagan's 30s power numbers compare to the field?
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Old 07-10-18, 02:05 PM
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Ligget made an interesting comment on Gaviria's sprint. He had two kicks. First one at the onset, the second before the line. My opinion is the ability to kick twice brought him the win. Sagan did not have a kick for the line.
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Old 07-10-18, 06:18 PM
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Originally Posted by TiHabanero View Post
Ligget made an interesting comment on Gaviria's sprint. He had two kicks. First one at the onset, the second before the line. My opinion is the ability to kick twice brought him the win. Sagan did not have a kick for the line.
That's what it looked like to me. Greipel was there but the 2nd kick put a fork in him.
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Old 07-10-18, 08:03 PM
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Where’s Cav been?
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Old 07-11-18, 01:01 AM
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sagan will get rid of those pesky sprinters soon enuff. no sprinters to worry about on stage 5.
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Old 07-11-18, 07:28 AM
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Originally Posted by TiHabanero View Post
Ligget made an interesting comment on Gaviria's sprint. He had two kicks. First one at the onset, the second before the line. My opinion is the ability to kick twice brought him the win. Sagan did not have a kick for the line.
Looking at the overhead footage, it looks more like Greipel faded.

I didn't notice a "second kick". I think Gaviria just held his watts better than Greipel, but not as well as Sagan. Sagan looks to have been ever so slightly faster, but ran out of runway.
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Old 07-11-18, 07:51 AM
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Sagan also had to swerve around Greipel as he faded back.. hard to keep full gas when you're turning around a guy. He timed it pretty well on Stage 2 and won by a bike throw so i think it's just a few really fast guys who get it right that day.
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Old 07-11-18, 01:30 PM
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I can't say Sagan's lacking any speed or such. Just because he didn't win sprint or two doesn't make him off his game. And I don't think anyone considers him a pure sprinter, nor is he a GC type by any stretch of the imagination. He just has an uncanny awareness of what's going on around him along with some great bike skills that lets him exploit situations where others don't. He's also got one of the best bike throws of any one and his timing of the throw to get the wheel past the line optimally is impeccable. But he can't win them all.

As for Greipel, I feel for him, as it seemed he had to come from further behind at full speed and got to the others just as they started their sprints. If he'd been up there or had a second or two to rest before they all broke out in a sprint, he may have pulled it off.

But since last years Veulta, I've been thinking we are going to see some new people making names and our big name riders of the previous four or so years fading away. They aren't going to go quick though nor without making so great wins, but the new guys are getting their names in the mix.
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Old 07-11-18, 03:27 PM
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Originally Posted by Iride01 View Post
And I don't think anyone considers him a pure sprinter...
This. It's actually kind of surprising that Sagan has been the guy challenging Gaviria. When guys like Griepel, Kittel, and Cavendish are on their game, Sagan only comes into play when something unexpected happens and he's the guy who is able to adapt or the finish isn't flat enough for the pure sprinters.

Gaviria is an interesting guy. He seems to have the top end speed of a pure sprinter but it looks like he can sustain the power longer than most of the other guys. I wonder if that is the reason guys like Kittel and Griepel have been out of the hunt. QS kicks it in early -- too early for the other sprinters to go -- and Gaviria just doesn't slow down.

As for Gaviria vs. Sagan, if you watched the Tour of California it was pretty clear that Gaviria is just a lot faster. The fact that Sagan has even made things close when Gaviria was in the sprint tells me Sagan actually has things dialed in pretty well.
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Old 07-11-18, 06:01 PM
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Originally Posted by ooga-booga View Post
sagan will get rid of those pesky sprinters soon enuff. no sprinters to worry about on stage 5.
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Old 07-11-18, 06:05 PM
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Originally Posted by Iride01 View Post
I can't say Sagan's lacking any speed or such. Just because he didn't win sprint or two doesn't make him off his game. And I don't think anyone considers him a pure sprinter, nor is he a GC type by any stretch of the imagination. He just has an uncanny awareness of what's going on around him along with some great bike skills that lets him exploit situations where others don't. He's also got one of the best bike throws of any one and his timing of the throw to get the wheel past the line optimally is impeccable. But he can't win them all.

As for Greipel, I feel for him, as it seemed he had to come from further behind at full speed and got to the others just as they started their sprints. If he'd been up there or had a second or two to rest before they all broke out in a sprint, he may have pulled it off.

But since last years Veulta, I've been thinking we are going to see some new people making names and our big name riders of the previous four or so years fading away. They aren't going to go quick though nor without making so great wins, but the new guys are getting their names in the mix.
To me, Sagan is made up of about 50% sprinter, 30% GC, and 20% climber.
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Old 07-13-18, 12:33 PM
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Today's sprint (stage 7) was a bit longer at 18 seconds, but he made no headway. Maybe both he and Gaviria burned too many matches in those intermediate sprints for points.

But more interestingly, did anyone else notice Cavendish's swerve in the final 100m? Did he forget how to ride a bike in these last few years? Why doesn't anyone else (sprinters) have this problem?

I'd be surprised if he doesn't crash out of this race sometime in the next two weeks.
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Old 07-13-18, 12:38 PM
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Stay near the front have enough energy reserve to win the finish and points sprint is what a lot of them want to do.
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Old 07-13-18, 12:40 PM
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Originally Posted by colombo357 View Post
Today's sprint (stage 7) was a bit longer at 18 seconds, but he made no headway. Maybe both he and Gaviria burned too many matches in those intermediate sprints for points.

But more interestingly, did anyone else notice Cavendish's swerve in the final 100m? Did he forget how to ride a bike in these last few years? Why doesn't anyone else (sprinters) have this problem?

I'd be surprised if he doesn't crash out of this race sometime in the next two weeks.
I definitely noticed that. I think he's lost his nerve and got spooked with Sagan being that close. The commentators mentioned something about a mis-shift, but looked to me like it happened at the exact moment he got close to Sagan. Unless his nerve comes back, I doubt he'll be in contention in any of the sprint stages.
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Old 07-16-18, 05:00 PM
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Sagan out of necessity and perhaps preference freelances more than any successful sprinter I can remember. He is rarely the recipient of a classic lead out train. He is also very willing and able to adjust and change wheels as the sprint is winding up, and tends to pick the right wheels. As a result he is almost always close at the line. But he is often giving up ground to riders of equal speed somewhere in the sprint that he has to make up.

Agree that Cav seems to be over reacting to any hint of contact.
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Old 07-18-18, 12:13 AM
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similar to a mcewen without a proper leadout train so he co-opts another sprinter's but sagan has waay more versatility than mcewen ever did. a once every generation or so rider.
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Old 07-18-18, 02:41 PM
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Originally Posted by Voodoo76 View Post
Sagan out of necessity and perhaps preference freelances more than any successful sprinter I can remember. He is rarely the recipient of a classic lead out train. He is also very willing and able to adjust and change wheels as the sprint is winding up, and tends to pick the right wheels. As a result he is almost always close at the line. But he is often giving up ground to riders of equal speed somewhere in the sprint that he has to make up.
I'm just curious as to where Sagan would be if he didn't chase green jersey points and sat out on some of the sprint finishes that didn't suit him (to conserve energy). His 30-60 second power has got to be way higher than any other sprinter.
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Old 07-18-18, 02:49 PM
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Sagan is the man, but Gaviria is his equal at least. Last year after Sagan was disqualified, Marcel Kittel looked like superman winning at least 5 stages wins

this year with Sagan back, nothing out of Kittel, what gives? nutrition, conditioning, tactics, not being with quick step anymore?
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Old 07-19-18, 11:50 PM
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At the end of the stage, Fernando Gaviria had a deep track discipline to call upon (e.g., he won the omnium in the London round of the 201415 UCI Track Cycling World Cup. ~wiki)
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Old 07-20-18, 12:22 PM
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Great performance from Sagan today.

But how about Gilbert? He would not have been caught if it weren't for FDJ's two leadout men who matched Gilbert's effort.

Gilbert needs a leadout man for late break efforts. 900-1000 watts for 15 seconds is very doable and would've given Gilbert the W.
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Old 07-20-18, 10:55 PM
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Originally Posted by Flip Flop Rider View Post
Sagan is the man, but Gaviria is his equal at least. Last year after Sagan was disqualified, Marcel Kittel looked like superman winning at least 5 stages wins

this year with Sagan back, nothing out of Kittel, what gives? nutrition, conditioning, tactics, not being with quick step anymore?
Sagan has shown Gaviria who the cyclist is...
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Old 07-21-18, 07:12 AM
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Originally Posted by Flip Flop Rider View Post
Sagan is the man, but Gaviria is his equal at least. Last year after Sagan was disqualified, Marcel Kittel looked like superman winning at least 5 stages wins

this year with Sagan back, nothing out of Kittel, what gives? nutrition, conditioning, tactics, not being with quick step anymore?
Getting DQ'd along with Cavendish for not making the time cutoff on one of the mountain stages for the first time suggests that the pace is being driven really hard this year, and that seems to have been the case throughout the tour, not just that mountain stage.

A slight decrease in conditioning will easily do it when the guys at the front are charging. If Kittel focused too much on top end power and allowed his FTP to drop slightly compared to last year, or maybe had an illness and mistimed his fitness peak, that could also do it.

Observe the speed of the peloton coming into these sprint finishes. Anytime the speed is 50kph or above on a flat stage, it means the guy at the front is pulling 700+ watts, and this can go on for minutes as different leadout men take their pulls. During this time, it takes 400+ watts to hang in the peloton.
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