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fantasy tour de france 2020 + general tdf discussion

Old 09-13-20, 02:52 PM
  #201  
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carnage.
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Old 09-13-20, 05:39 PM
  #202  
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Originally Posted by one4smoke View Post
ooga-booga ...any way in hell Sagan can come back and take the green? Line up the Bora train for the two sprint stages remaining and try to steamroll to the end!?! Only option?
They have a chance in 16 if they take off at the beginning like they did the other day. Drop Bennett in that cat 4 climb and win that one sprint. This is going to be a fun final week!
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Old 09-14-20, 01:56 AM
  #203  
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they've got a rest day to figure it out. hopefully their plan won't be to pull a bojangles manuever (against higuita) and take out s. bennett but their options are getting increasingly limited.
1. hoping that bennett misses the time cut on one of the upcoming mtn stages or crashes out or pulls a sagan (too soon, i know) and gets dq'd from the race. analysis-unlikely.
2. hoping covid-19 does what it does so well and bounces team dqs outta the race. analysis-unlikely.
3. putting team bora through the paces stages 16-19 (team jv might be down with bora pushing the pace early on during those 4 stages) analysis-likely.
4. sagan going on some crazy, thor-like escapade/break on a mtn stage to score sprint points. analysis-increasingly possible and dependent on stage 16 results/success.
5. sagan will likely finish in the top 8 in the final stage but bennett could win the stage outright (altho i'm still picking wout) and sagan will need a buffer to cover the point allocations in case
bennett finishes significantly higher than sagan.

team bora isn't riding for anything else but the green jersey and stage wins currently. schachmann and kamna have looked good lately and either is capable of pulling off a stage win but
i think the chances that either of them (or both) take a stage win is significantly less than their chances of winning the green jersey.
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Old 09-14-20, 02:28 AM
  #204  
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rest day/end of week two/beginning of week three recap:

tdf tissot league is proving to be an absolute barnburner. wild, stock-marketesque swings of fortune and failure within the space of two stages for many.
team slow (s)pokes has likely bribed its way to the top ahead of a rest day, thus insuring being at the top of the leaderboard for two days. i don't trust that
diphthong one bit. conniving/manipulative as all you know what. the good news? there are like 6 teams within immediate (well there is that pesky rest day, but otherwise...)
striking distance of knocking that hoser off the podium and for good. i mean that team has a whole two point lead over the next team. two points. 2. one two. yeah, really
insurmountable. i like the field's chances of bouncing that poser-and soon. probably the only time that doofus has ever been grateful for a rest day...

tdf gbbg league is a little more leisurely currently. the leader dropped from 5th out of 13,428 participants at the end of the first week to 250th out of 13,428 participants today.
his secret weapon crashed out of the game and in doing so, takes away a projected 750 points. many would question the wisdom (except slcbob) of selecting
mollema as a secret weapon and they will likely be justified at the game's end. you all know about the "rabbit" that runs marathons and goes out to set a superfast pace
but then fades into oblivion? yeah. same team name as the one in the tdf tissot league. what are the odds this dweezil is at the top of both leagues at the same time before a
rest day? sabotage is a french word but that bleeper better hope their life insurance is paid up...
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Old 09-14-20, 05:06 AM
  #205  
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^ the wisdom of anything I mirrored is de facto questionable.

Mr Bojangles. Mr Bojangles. Mr Bojangles. Damn. That was an erratic move. I don't for a moment suspect any intent and am sure he feels horrible, though not quite as bad as Higuita. Bad luck.

Shocking the point spread, or lack thereof, in the Tissot league. I am really regretting futzing around on the team bus and missing the sign in for stage 1.

In VG GBBG, I had a jour sans ike Bernal and am consigned to finishing unremarkably. I may still make an occasional remark.

In real life, do you think Bennet was like a green limpet on Sagan all the way through the breakfast buffet?
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Old 09-14-20, 08:34 AM
  #206  
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I'm continually impressed with how tight knit DQ is with their riders, especially watching sam Bennett. Not only is Bennett pacing Sagan, I love how morkov is constantly leading out Bennett at the intermediate sprints only to fall back just before the line and take points from Sagan. Sagan is going to have to find his legs or it's over. Bennett is stronger and with a stronger team. Kinda confused Bora brought Buchmann tbh.
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Old 09-14-20, 08:56 AM
  #207  
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You can see how the Covid Lockdown effected the training of the riders this year.
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Old 09-14-20, 08:14 PM
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I think Sagan scores a solid dozen or more in the intermediate vs. Sam and I have no conjecture beyond that for 16.

I give Bennett 2 pts back on 17 then Sagan scores well on 18 and great on 19. May make it a race, even if Bennett survives the Covid tests and the Alps.
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Old 09-14-20, 10:07 PM
  #209  
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stage sixteen...picking de gendt ftw but hoping it's alaphilippe instead. those points would come in mighty handy. team groupama-fdj has been very quiet lately...
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Old 09-15-20, 09:37 AM
  #210  
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nice ride by känma to stay away for nearly 20 km. looking more probable every day that bora will not win the green jersey but at least they’ve got a stage win.

Last edited by ooga-booga; 09-15-20 at 07:20 PM.
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Old 09-15-20, 10:13 AM
  #211  
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Originally Posted by ooga-booga View Post
they've got a rest day to figure it out. hopefully their plan won't be to pull a bojangles manuever (against higuita) and take out s. bennett but their options are getting increasingly limited.
1. hoping that bennett misses the time cut on one of the upcoming mtn stages or crashes out or pulls a sagan (too soon, i know) and gets dq'd from the race. analysis-unlikely.
2. hoping covid-19 does what it does so well and bounces team dqs outta the race. analysis-unlikely.
3. putting team bora through the paces stages 16-19 (team jv might be down with bora pushing the pace early on during those 4 stages) analysis-likely.
4. sagan going on some crazy, thor-like escapade/break on a mtn stage to score sprint points. analysis-increasingly possible and dependent on stage 16 results/success.
5. sagan will likely finish in the top 8 in the final stage but bennett could win the stage outright (altho i'm still picking wout) and sagan will need a buffer to cover the point allocations in case
bennett finishes significantly higher than sagan.

team bora isn't riding for anything else but the green jersey and stage wins currently. schachmann and kamna have looked good lately and either is capable of pulling off a stage win but
i think the chances that either of them (or both) take a stage win is significantly less than their chances of winning the green jersey
.
oh those horrible predictions just keep coming out of the woodwork. almost as bad as old tweets from the last decade. almost.
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Old 09-15-20, 11:31 AM
  #212  
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I'm thinking Caleb is going to have to pull one out his butt to avoid elimination tomorrow.

Poga/Roglic/Some other GC contender at the finish.
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Old 09-15-20, 01:06 PM
  #213  
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stage seventeen...taking martinez for the win. if it comes down to the top gc guys tho in a sprint, it’s gotta be pogacar.
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Old 09-15-20, 04:35 PM
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Just really hoping Uran can maintain. Some of those final grades are steep and come like a quick punch then back to normal. Perfect for Pogacar or Lopez. I think Uran could launch an attack at the base of the col and grind away at Pogacar or Lopez but he'll loose time if they arrive close to the top together.

Nobody's mentioned Porte huh? I expect to see him do really well, too bad he's so close in GC he's not getting into a break. Gonna throw out a wild one with Cousin ftw. A double showing by Martinez would be incredible for EF.
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Old 09-15-20, 05:10 PM
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I heard speculation tv today that Bernal is deliberately losing time so that he can be in it for a stage win tomorrow. Anyone want to buy that bridge?
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Old 09-15-20, 05:25 PM
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Originally Posted by GrainBrain View Post
Just really hoping Uran can maintain. Some of those final grades are steep and come like a quick punch then back to normal. Perfect for Pogacar or Lopez. I think Uran could launch an attack at the base of the col and grind away at Pogacar or Lopez but he'll loose time if they arrive close to the top together.

Nobody's mentioned Porte huh? I expect to see him do really well, too bad he's so close in GC he's not getting into a break. Gonna throw out a wild one with Cousin ftw. A double showing by Martinez would be incredible for EF.
I came so close to picking Richie instead of Pinot, but his history was an obstacle.

Speaking of history, I have Pinot, Le Tour and Chevalier on me team in Tissot. Somehow, after today, I'm in 2nd place despite my "French connection".
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Old 09-15-20, 05:25 PM
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Originally Posted by USAZorro View Post
I heard speculation tv today that Bernal is deliberately losing time so that he can be in it for a stage win tomorrow. Anyone want to buy that bridge?
thinking no. sivakov looks fully recovered from the stage one (i think) crash. both he and carapaz (finishing 4th and 2nd respectively) lit it up as did amador. could bernal win stage 17 or 18? possibly. is he sandbagging and just had a really bad day? probably not. is bernal still suffering from the dauphiné injuries? probably. has he done anything to show us he’s riding better than 25 other riders (i’d even take pinot‘s chances ahead of his) that you could make an argument for taking stage 17?
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Old 09-15-20, 05:29 PM
  #218  
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Originally Posted by USAZorro View Post
I heard speculation tv today that Bernal is deliberately losing time so that he can be in it for a stage win tomorrow. Anyone want to buy that bridge?
Winning a stage,probably. Getting on the podium, no way. He's hurting, the team is hurting. Poor planning,IMO. Kinda un-Ineos like. They'll need to re-group for next season after these remaining races.
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Old 09-15-20, 05:30 PM
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Originally Posted by ooga-booga View Post
thinking no. sivakov looks fully recovered from the stage one (i think) crash. both he and carapaz (finishing 4th and 2nd respectively) lit it up as did amador. could bernal win stage 17 or 18? possibly. is he sandbagging and just had a really bad day? probably not. is bernal still suffering from the dauphiné injuries? probably. has he done anything to show us he’s riding better than 25 other riders (i’d even take pinot‘s chances ahead of his) that you could make an argument for taking stage 17?
I give that excuse a 0.0001% chance of not being BS. I was just asking so that I could offer the sucker who'd buy that bridge a nice insurance policy.

Sunday night, I saw someone making a claim that Bernal was a lock to win stage 16. I think it was on the VeloNews site. I told him that I liked Sagan's chances better.
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Old 09-15-20, 05:31 PM
  #220  
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Originally Posted by GrainBrain View Post
Just really hoping Uran can maintain. Some of those final grades are steep and come like a quick punch then back to normal. Perfect for Pogacar or Lopez. I think Uran could launch an attack at the base of the col and grind away at Pogacar or Lopez but he'll loose time if they arrive close to the top together.

Nobody's mentioned Porte huh? I expect to see him do really well, too bad he's so close in GC he's not getting into a break. Gonna throw out a wild one with Cousin ftw. A double showing by Martinez would be incredible for EF.
that would be remarkable. he finished outside of the time cut-off today...
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Old 09-15-20, 05:37 PM
  #221  
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Originally Posted by USAZorro View Post
I give that excuse a 0.0001% chance of not being BS. I was just asking so that I could offer the sucker who'd buy that bridge a nice insurance policy.

Sunday night, I saw someone making a claim that Bernal was a lock to win stage 16. I think it was on the VeloNews site. I told him that I liked Sagan's chances better.
agreed. speaking of pinot, his was the first name that popped into my head after looking at stage 17 profile/route along with the standings. second name was martinez. sticking with martimez. i think pinot came through for me during last year’s tdf on a not so horrible prediction during a third week mtn stage. *edit-stage 14 end of 2nd week.* it’ll be interesting to see if pinot or the team can pull off a win. reichenback gave it a nice try today. gaudu would have helped but he bounced today.

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Old 09-15-20, 06:42 PM
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Originally Posted by ooga-booga View Post
agreed. speaking of pinot, his was the first name that popped into my head after looking at stage 17 profile/route along with the standings. second name was martinez. sticking with martimez. i think pinot came through for me during last year’s tdf on a not so horrible prediction during a third week mtn stage. *edit-stage 14 end of 2nd week.* it’ll be interesting to see if pinot or the team can pull off a win. reichenback gave it a nice try today. gaudu would have helped but he bounced today.
He's doing considerably better than he was last week, but I'm not sold that he'll be sufficiently recovered in time to make an attack stick. Perhaps if he's riding the Vuelta.
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Old 09-16-20, 06:13 AM
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Originally Posted by ooga-booga View Post
that would be remarkable. he finished outside of the time cut-off today...
Oh geeze I just looked, over two minutes past is all! Anyway Dan Martin is in the break so I'm hoping he'll get it. One of my favorite rider personalities.
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Old 09-16-20, 06:37 AM
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Bernal has Left the tour leaving Ineos without a leader. They will have to change their plan today.
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Old 09-16-20, 11:13 AM
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Originally Posted by Ed Wiser View Post
Bernal has Left the tour leaving Ineos without a leader. They will have to change their plan today.
So...am I allowed to replace Bernal now that he's out??
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