ooga-booga

hay there everybody...it's 2021 vuelta time. last chance for grand tour romance! this is the non-fantasy thread where only real things transpire, get discussed
and folded/spindled/mutilated. have at it. vuelta starts this saturday! helluva team sky...er...ineos is bringing...still may be not enuff to dislodge roglic.

slcbob

What's life without a fantasy here and there?

Or, in the words of King Leroyd, "What's life without a little salt?" ... "To life, English"

MinnMan

Has Ineos clarified that Bernal will be first among their GC contenders? I sure hope so. Should Bernal stumble, they have some exquisite plan B candidates. But they're nuts if their plan A isn't to put him in the best possible position.

Also, apart from Ineos and Roglic, the startlist doesn't have a lot of great GC talent. Landa, Majka, Valverde or Mas, Bardet - who else can compete for the win or a podium spot?

ooga-booga

granted, most of the gc firepower is contained within three teams. in recent gt years tho, we’ve seen a caruso, a vingegaard, a tgh, a hindley finishing on a podium step. pretty sure none of us expected any of these guys in the top five. top 10? maybe. top 20? yeah. could team jv/ineos sweep the top five gc placings? sure, but it would seem just as likely a top lieutenant (from other teams) or a breakout young punk nabs a podium step. what is a given is that crashes, injuries, fatigue and attrition invariably thin out the expected gc hierarchy.

this vuelta’s breakout gc rider(s) will be…? young punk not old enuff to know his limitations? established rider in the right place/right time when the protected rider goes down? comeback rider?

surak

Last year's Vuelta was super interesting due to the compressed World Tour calendar and everyone riding not knowing if it was their last race all season-long, but I'm not that hyped this year. If Pogacar were competing then I would've loved to follow a Rog v. Pog v. Bernal clash.

Supposedly Bernal is still having back issues, so Roglic is the clear favorite minus his tendency for misfortune (which should really be defined on a scale with units in Geraints; I'd rate Roglic a 0.7 G).

Of course the unpredictability of any Grand Tour without a dominant rider and team means the compellingness of the Vuelta could turn on a dime at any stage. I hope that does indeed happen!

slcbob

^ that is a well-coined unit of measure.

There is some ill fate inherent in the sport so there is no such thing as a zero chance of misfortune, but I'd put someone like Lance he-who-shall-not-be-named as the poster child for what 0 G is. Seven tours with only a downhill cross-country detour, a bag handlebar hook, and maybe another thing or two that escapes me and was ultimately inconsequential.

I'd put Roglic at no more than .5 G. Richie probably around 0.8. Off the top of my head, Zakarin and Talansky leap out as possibly >1.0.

A few epic fails (Froome, Hoogerland, RIP WW) with severity but not frequency do not rate a high G.

ooga-booga

the landa/aru show have had their collective moments...who(m) can forget stevie snowbank? pavelment surfing sivakov?

ooga-booga

and sure...stage one...roglic is the fave. but does he really want to go all out on a shortish, first stage tt that has plenty of technical spots of bother?
is it worth risking your entire vuelta? probably not. first name that popped into the noggin was polanc from uae but going with cerny from dqs for the win.
glad to have that first horrible prediction of the last gt out of the way.

slcbob

These predictions are pure fantasy. Why aren't they in the other thread?

I would not be surprised to see a surprise from Matthews in the just-barely-not-a-prologue opener. Maybe close enough to the lead that bonus seconds in stage 2 put him into red for a day.

I would be surprised to see Pidcock take it. I was surprised to see him mentioned in David Hunter's short list, and our Adam as his GC pick. Rose colored glasses?

Speaking of nationalism, how about Craddock for the top 5 and maybe an early hot seat? Though I didn't check the start order.

GrainBrain

Piddock's completely out of it? Still beat Landa

Sepp Kuss! Craddock with a great result; both personally contacted me and requested I leave them off my fantasy roster - "I have mouths to feed" was Craddocks exact words.

ooga-booga

stage two...if démare doesn't take this, he's on the official dtm (dead to me) list.

slcbob

I un-deaded Landa and he almost missed his start time.

How are y'all watching La Vuelta? Paying for Peacock? How and who is the coverage?

I'm going VPN to UK and watching on GCN. Kirby & Kelly, plus Orla is back on her sofa for the pre- and post-race. Magnus Backstedt and Sean Kelly were with her for stage one. We'll see if we get Bernie on a Bike for the road stages.

I had the Arctic Race of Norway playing in the background earlier this week. The racing was OK. The scenery was epic.

GrainBrain

McCrossan and Walker for Peacock, which I enjoy. Maybe a bit milquetoast but also wonderfully unpretentious.

I really like the GCN app though because you can jump back during a live broadcast to catch something you missed, and I can screenshot the race footage. Peacock developers have protected the video stream from North American meme loving heathens.

MinnMan

Hurrah for Philipsen. He's earned it.

USAZorro

His career is officially in the toilet and the water is swirling.

philbob57

I've worked with VPNs for corps, but I can't figure out how to look like I'm in the UK, so I need NBCSN or Peacock Premium.

Peacock Premium is no extra charge for Comcast customers. At one point, one needed a Flex box to get Peacock Premium. I think Cox customers get it at no extra charge, too. My hearing is a problem, so I have trouble with the accents on Peacock - my problem, not theirs. I probably wouldn't pay extra for Peacock Premium, except during the Grand Tours.

The Flex box is a streaming device that doesn't provide a great picture, at least on my low-end 4K LG TV. Both the native TV and a Roku Express+ provide a much sharper picture. But the Flex costs nothing extra, and it got me Peacock Premium, so I have it. I just don't use it.

ooga-booga

harsh but seemingly accurate in this space and time…

ooga-booga

horrible prediction #3…miggylo for stage three.

USAZorro

Been getting an education from Christian and Bob on the Olympic Channel, I'm thinking Superman... er ... Aranburu is a cinch (what can't this rider do?) He's the new Luis Leon Sanchez.

MinnMan

who?

ooga-booga

a fan of aranburu. he’s doing well already. this could be the big big coming-out party.

USAZorro

Or perhaps he's the next Gesink/Kruyswick/Kangert/Bardet/Pinot/Dan Martin etc. We shall see.

ooga-booga

nice, feel-good win for jakobsen. all the way back after that top crash. awesome and congrats!

Eric F

I'm not sure if the Alpecin-Fenix rider was trying to jump early for the win, or lead out Phillipsen. The way he looked back to see where Phillipsen was tells me it was probably supposed to be a leadout. Either way, it was poorly executed, and Phillipsen was never able to find a hole to be in contention for the win. Nice win for Jako.

ooga-booga

[QUOTE=Eric F;22188201]I'm not sure if the Alpecin-Fenix rider was trying to jump early for the win, or lead out Phillipsen. The way he looked back to see where Phillipsen was tells me it was probably supposed to be a leadout. Either way, it was poorly executed, and Phillipsen was never able to find a hole to be in contention for the win. Nice win for Jako.[/QUOTE

agreed. looked, to me as well, to be a lead out. go jako!