diphthong

found an acorn. stage five tuff to predict. finish nearly 100 km from the top of the big climb. prob time enuff for the sprinter-based teams to reassemble or screams breakaway possibly holding on just barely. so
much in play. going with magnus cort from ef.

i don’t hafta be the only one throwing out horrible predictions…it’s like a must-do during the gt’s. have at it. the more predictions, the better. otherwise, y’all just gonna get mine which are untimely and ill-informed.

what kinda odds you think i coulda gotten for kämna winning today’s stage? a c-note woulda paid off what? actually felt pretty good about that one given his performance the other day.

slcbob

I prognosticated. Less successfully than you -- Bardet for 4, though my Cav/Morkov for 3 was golf clap worthy. I think it was in the bizarro fantasy thread because, realistically, these guesses are the stuff of dreams.

Yes, throw your hard earned savings at Paddy Power. Kamna would have paid off. Not exactly a Rich Strike but pretty good. Better than the S&P this year.

I think I threw down Ewan and Girmay for 5 and 6, too. Perhaps a bit casually stupid. Like most things I post here. But I'm sticking with that story even though the mole threw down for MVDP in 5.

semroc

I'll take Nibali for stage 5. Maybe he'll drop some on the descent, and hang on for dear life till the finish.

sincos

I guess we answered the Dumoulin question. Jebel Jais was not an early season/not in form yet outlier.
This is a big race for Astana, but with Miguel Angel Headcase having a hipcase and Nibali showing his age, what's Plan C?
I expected better from a couple of long-shots Foss and Gall, and some climbers like Narvaez and Anthony Perez had a terrible day. Oh well. But speaking of Plan C, what's JVs?

diphthong

it’s a long race. a few more dudes are gonna fall out of contention and one or two will ride back into the frame. it’s the first week.

MinnMan

Astana is hurting for sure.

Here's a question that sort of answers itself. On stage 4, Kamna and Lopez clearly made a deal to work together. Good for them. But the calculation that they did (particularly Kamna) couldn't have been made with information they held in their heads. In other words, it seems very unlikely that Kamna knew that Lopez was going to take the Maglia Rosa and therefore be happy to take second on the stage.

He must have got that information from his DS on the radio, no?

It just makes me wonder how different all the dynamics would be without the radios. Or maybe it simply would have been that Lopez would have had to explain it to Kamna on the road...

MinnMan

Tell me that it's too early to judge, but I'm thinking that Girmay is riding for the wrong team. He is up there i the bunch at every sprint stage, but would do much better in them.if he had a team with experienced and strong lead-out support.

semroc

Why did Alpecin Fenix drop the hammer on the big climb today? They didn't even contest for the win. Horner will probably call them knuckleheads. Great stage though. Sure like McEwen and Kelly calling the action.

GrainBrain

Same could be said about quite a few sprinters. I'm curious to see how he progresses in this Giro. I'd hope to see Girmay continuously improve his positioning. It's why I'm a fan of Ewan, Sagan - they've had great wins from simply picking the right wheels to follow - plus that intuitive positioning.

I've said before MvdP seems to rely on brutal power over intuitiveness. Oof today he burns the whole team just to get 78th or something? That's awful.

Gaviria -- soon! Soon.

Reminder of the sportsmanship award to Bardet as he assists with Dainese leadout.

I've got Caleb Ewan for stage 6 tomorrow -- plenty of time to change that rear tire before the finish

GrainBrain

From stage 4 ... Pretty sure Kamna brake checked Lopez just to be safe on that last corner ...

MinnMan

To drop the sprinters. And it worked., They dropped Cav, Ewan, and Demare in the process. Only Demare clawed back on and stuck it to them.

semroc

Oh right. I forgot MVDP was in the sprinters jersey.

diphthong

stage six horrible prediction...as much as it pains me to say it...air cav.

MinnMan

I'm not a good guesser either.

GrainBrain

I would like to know what Gaviria is thinking sometimes. That seemed crazy to watch him shoulder check Bol.

diphthong

stage seven looks like fun. expecting de gendt to take a flyer. kämna's going to want to pad his kom lead. this stage could further thin the gc contenders with all the wiggles and giggles. horrible prediction time...the green bullet.

slcbob

I wonder if he has been training with Bouhani.

slcbob

Not Nibali?

So much for Rule 87. C'mon, man. Caleb's due some luck, isn't he?

I have zero idea who will win from the break but it will be a heckuva fight to get there. Go git some, Alejandro.

semroc

I'll pick Bilbao for stage 7

sincos

I think he went for a gap that didn't exist. The shoulder check was trying to stay upright when you're trying not to clip your front wheel on the guy just ahead. I think. Actually Bauhaus did that to Girmay on the previous stage, barging him into the hoardings. Fortunately for Bauhaus, Girmay not only stayed up but beat him in the sprint, so Bauhaus didn't get relegated.

BTW, what kind of stage ends up with 152 riders in the leading group??

sincos

Wondering if Ineos will send Sivakov or UAE Ulissi as a rabbit. Maybe Hamilton for BEX, but they don't seem to be the most tactically astute of outfits. Have Trek and BEX do the work. If either Bilbao or Landa go I think Ineos will shut it down. Will also be interested in seeing if Dumoulin can work himself into climbing form.

diphthong

was thinking the exact same thing with the exact same three riders. tales of brave ulissi has been berry berry quiet for too long...a few years ago, woulda picked him outright for this stage.
he could win it but feeling better about sivakov or hamilton's chances.

diphthong

would love to see nibbles take the victory.

rule 87 incurred the wrath of the cycling gods when he stated his desire to win a stage in all three gt's without finishing all three.
it's been all downhill and pavement surfing for him since, hasn't it? be careful what you wish for...

bora still has four guys less than 3 minutes in arrears re: the maglia rosa. thinking one or two may fall out of that grouping on stage seven
but if they don't, might portend well for the last week for team peter who(m)?

slcbob

There was some chatter post-Wevelgem about his contract, I don't recall hearing any resolution, but I think Intermarche WG may have doubled down to extend him.

Stages 5 and 6 similar results: IWG went all in to get him to a decent wheel near the end (recognizing they don't have the juice for a DIY leadout), Girmay seemed to have the legs, but couldn't navigate the seething mass. It happens to everyone sometimes, but I think we're seeing his inexperience.

Girmay and most sprinters would benefit from strong lead-out support. I think Girmay"s hot topic now is to continue his apprenticeship, ideally with a mentor / sprinter whisperer who can accelerate him along. No pun intended, just tripped over it.

I don't know how that works in practice, but we've heard it before in theory with, for example, pre-Lazarus Cav for Jakobsen and Bennett, or the way sage leadout men lift a boot sprinter.

Net: he might do better with one great lead rider (or even coach) than four good ones.

slcbob

Perhaps with half of Astana. What else can they do? Conti?

No chance for Landa & Bilbao, or anyone else under 3 min back on GC. Like Ciccone. Trek seem to want to work to keep the Jersey on Lopez so a Trek man in the brake may not play.anyway.

Ulissi just over 5 might not set off all the alarms.