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giro d'italia 2022...straight-no fantasy chaser

Old 05-17-22, 01:09 PM
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Originally Posted by ooga-booga
those bubbly corks ain't no joke.
God damnit!
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Old 05-17-22, 01:22 PM
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Well fine. I hope that eye is ok Biniam!
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Old 05-18-22, 01:20 AM
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classic. this might be the all-time reason for withdrawal. likely gives rule #87 the ability to crawl back in and take a stage win.
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Old 05-18-22, 05:23 AM
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The GCN stage 10 replay is MIA. I wonder if they were a little brutal during ProseccoGate. Did anyone watch it live?

Bizarre end to a magnificent GT debut.
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Old 05-18-22, 09:26 AM
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hopefully, we’ll see girmay in the tdf now that he won’t have a full giro in those legs. is his team invited/qualified/going?
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Old 05-18-22, 01:27 PM
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Originally Posted by ooga-booga
hopefully, we’ll see girmay in the tdf now that he won’t have a full giro in those legs. is his team invited/qualified/going?
Don't know about Girmay in the TdF, but the guy's only 22. We'll lots of him soon enough. As for IWG, they're WT, looks like it'll be Kristoff for the sprints and van der Hoorn for the GC. It's been around Girmay that the team's been welded together, though, so it will be interesting to see how IWG respond.
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Old 05-18-22, 01:36 PM
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(Tried posting this yesterday but got swallowed up in the entrails of BF forums. Slightly edited to reflect current stages)

A few random observations from what is turning out to be a significant as well as entertaining Giro:

1. That Biniam Girmay is something special. He’s a quick read, learning from his positioning issues earlier to launch a ridiculously long sprint. Classy, too, giving the team the credit. A shame about the eye injury; fortunately it sounds like he’ll make a full recovery.

2. Speaking of classy, nice touch from MVdP with the thumbs up and the big hug. I think we’re seeing the beginning of a rivalry that people will talk about in years to come between two riders who genuinely respect each other.

3. Speaking of team, Girmay was right. I think we’re seeing the maturation of Intermarche Wanty Gobert as a team. They’re learning, if not yet to control a race, at least to manage a race. In earlier stages they looked less sure of themselves, following wheels and looking to other teams. This time Hirt, Rota, and Pozzovivo(!) made themselves known and shut down everything dangerous in the last 10 km. Still a work in progress, but they’re learning quickly. Which brings up …

4. The Alpecin announcement surely came as no huge surprise (though if they’d stayed pro that wouldn’t have been a huge surprise either) and this stage shows why. MVdP is AF, and AF are too thin to manage races, especially well into a stage race or deep into a long one-day. MVdP is so strong he’s gotten away with it in the Classics, but a GT is a different matter. And with Girmay coming into his own and Pogacar thinking, “Hey, Flanders wasn’t so hard” he’ll need more help even in the Classics. AF will get Merlier and Philipsen for the Tour but they’re still top-heavy with little in the way of support. Not to mention they’ll lose Merlier next year. WT status should help build a deeper team.

5. That announcement also clarified things for certain teams. Lotto are just under the drop and desperately needed to win today. Ewan was 5th, but what could he have done if the team hadn’t abandoned their captain yesterday to come in solo, 30 min down and dead last (he did have Kluge for a while). They had no chance to win yesterday and didn’t come close, so why not pace Ewan back to save his energy and help his morale? They’d still get automatic wildcard status even if they dropped to Pro, but attracting riders will be that much more difficult.

BEX are on the bubble and also one hot mess. They’re another one-person team, but built for the GTs and big one weeks, which is a hard way to make a living in the age of Pog and Rog (even harder if Bernal comes back). The one thing they’ve got going for them is the haplessness of Lotto and Israel (who are surely going down) behind them. Much the same goes for EF, who’ve scored the fewest points of any team in the top 20. They started the season a safe 12th and now are about to lose 16th to Cofidis, who started in the relegation zone. But EF do have BEX, Lotto, and Israel behind them so they should stay safe.
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Old 05-18-22, 09:54 PM
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stage twelve horrible prediction...mvdp.
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Old 05-18-22, 11:41 PM
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**spoiler alert!!** mvdp won't hafta contend with rule #87...
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Old 05-19-22, 04:53 AM
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How about Rota to continue the IWG dream? Or is that the other thread?

sincos with Deceunick on board, A[F] will spend this transfer season. They'll still have to stretch to cover the broader calendar, but a bit less. Plan B: some more Zwifties!
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Old 05-19-22, 12:48 PM
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OK. Missing it today by half a wheel emboldens me to prognosticate wildly for tomorrow: they race the Colle di Nava, Cav goes out the back and gets off the bike, but Ballerini says with the field and takes the win.

Then, on Saturday, the aliens land.
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Old 05-20-22, 04:22 AM
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anything could happen on stage thirteen. anything. at a loss for a horrible prediction. stage fourteen tho...looks like a blast.
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Old 05-20-22, 06:30 AM
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Hey now! Evil God with a sick sense of humor. I said Cav, not Bardet!!!

I think that scuttles my hopes for a resurrection over in fantasy land. Unless Hugh Carthy finds a new gear.
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Old 05-20-22, 08:01 AM
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Originally Posted by slcbob
The GCN stage 10 replay is MIA. I wonder if they were a little brutal during ProseccoGate. Did anyone watch it live?

Bizarre end to a magnificent GT debut.
It's because of the politically incorrect conversation about lunch they had. I'm pretty sure I remember hearing it - they were discussing some fudge they had bought in town. I'm pretty sure I heard a mention of those who would place the fudge into packages.

Anyway Bardet out is a total blow for the race. Now it looks to be Landa vs Carapaz?
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Old 05-20-22, 12:58 PM
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def bummer about bardet. he looked good and bodes well for the rest of his season. i am excited, however, to see exactly
what arensman can do without bardet attracting all the attention.

bahrain (landa/bilbao), iwgm (hirt/pozzo) and bora (wilco/buchmann/hindley) all have multiple riders well-positioned going into the
last third of the race. most (pleasantly) surprised by hindley and pozzovivo at this point. all much as we would tend to think having multiple
cards to play for the podium, it tends not to work as often as it should. here is my prediction/curse for the final gc podium:
1. carapaz
2. almeida
3. buchmann

and since we're going for broke, what would the start of a gt weekend be without a thoroughly horrible prediction? stage fourteen-kämna again. thinking bora lets him take another flyer (with a few others in the break) to let a majority of teams chase-or not.
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Old 05-20-22, 02:00 PM
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For stage 14, I am waffling between the Trek boys Ciccone and Mollema. And wondering how that will play with pink defense. I'd like it to be Ciccone so that gives Mollema the edge. Might we see Richie Porte go up the road, to lend support to Carapaz or maybe even hang on for the stage? For all those reasons, let's just go with Rein Taarame and throw out all pretense of me having a clue.

Speaking of predictions, how about tomorrow's DNSs? Cav outlasted me today; will he roll on to Torino? MVDP? Others? I'm confident Demare keeps going (famous last words).
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Old 05-20-22, 06:28 PM
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Well, now it gets interesting. A short but hard, lumpy stage followed by a proper mountain stage and then a rest day. Here's my SWAG at how things may transpire.


Trek have done a sterling job protecting pink, and I think they'll continue to do that. They haven't the confidence to take the race to everyone else but can defend, and they'll challenge other teams to take it away from them.


Ineos will keep the pace fairly high but will save their powder for the day after. Then they'll go into Skytrain mode on the next stage. But they'll be opportunistic and look for weaknesses and time bonuses.


UAE will want to keep it close until the final TT in Verona. Almeida seems to be a steady climber, not changing pace too much, falling off when someone attacks, coming back when the attack peters out. Don't actually see him winning a mountain stage, but he doesn't have to.


Bora are in a good position. I think Hindley will wait until the Cogne stage, but they may send Buchmann out as a rabbit and dare Trek to chase.


Cofidis ... well ... of everyone in the top 10 Martin is probably the guy everyone else fears least and considers least likely to win it all, so he may get a little bit of leeway. An attack on a hard stage followed by a good mountain stage got him lots of time at Napoli/Blockhaus, and it might be worth a try again. Even if he pulls it off and gets the maglia rosa nobody would expect him to keep it, especially with Cofidis' next man at 51st (they're not doing too badly in the team competition, but the only WT teams significantly behind them are the sprinters' teams and IPT) so if anybody in the top 10 gets a bit of breathing room, it would be him.


Bahrain ... not sure what to think of them. Both Landa and Bilbao have aspirations, I don't know how well one would take to seeing the other go, but they both can't go or Trek, Ineos, and UAE will surely come down on them like a ton of bricks. If one goes, Trek and Ineos will probably mark anyway. UAE too.


Movistar ... if Valverde wants a stage he'll have to act soon. He says he'll support the number 1, but Lopez is out and Sosa's struggling, so now what? Too cagey to count out ever.


Of the others in the top 20, BEX really need a result, it will be too hot for Yates, and at 3'45" Hamilton probably won't be allowed to get clear but he has to try. EF are also desperate though Carthy will probably wait for Cogne. This would be a good stage for an opportunistic raid by JV or Vansevenant at QS. Though what I'd really like see is somebody like Matt Bais or Diego Rosa make the inevitable breakaway stick and win the stage (it's short enough) -- the little guys should get one day of glory at least, and they're running out of stages.
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Old 05-21-22, 02:28 AM
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that shortish tt with less than 1,000 feet of climbing on the last stage means the pure climbers like martin, pozzo and landa the panda need to salt n' pepa it
this last week. bilbao and almeida will have the advantage on stage 21. methinx carapaz and buchmann are somewhere in between...not totally wretched against the clock but not the best. hindley didn't impress against the clock when he most needed to against tgh and the green bullet is just okay in that regard. no idea where arensman and the current maglia rosa slot into tt acumen/performance. out of the current 12 guys under 2 mins in arrears to the leader, six need to force the issue in the next few stages to go no guts no glory, four can just ride the waves/feel the vibe whilst two are relatively unknown. out of the four whatevs dudes, carapaz is the most aggressive and prob least content to sit in, follow wheels and let the course sort it out. thinking carapaz will likely try to put a few of these remaining contenders on their collective back foot and force them to race for second or third place earlier rather than later vs risking a bad stage 20 or 21 showing/crash/illness. carapaz goes hard on stage sixteen after the rest day and attempts to relegate everyone else in gc contention. picking him for the horrible prediction win on stage 16. *drinks another beer...*

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Old 05-21-22, 04:59 AM
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don't see jpl keeping the maglia rosa today on stage fourteen. if he does, awesome and a rider to def keep an eye on in the future,
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Old 05-21-22, 11:47 AM
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well that was quite the barnburner…
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Old 05-22-22, 02:16 AM
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no good or bad feel for this stage so y'all luckily spared the horrible prediction curse temporarily...already picked carapaz for stage sixteen.
initially wanted to take g. martin to salvage his/team's giro with a stage fifteen win but he hasn't impressed much in the last few days.
sure, he could pull a yatesie and take the stage win but now thinking the bora boys get another stage win...just dunno whom...possibly hindley again.
do think that landa the panda hasta put in a big effort either this stage or the next. since the rest day comes after this stage, picking 15 as
the stage he goes-or attempts to-on a little foray to test those last week waters... nibbles will probably be involved along the way somewhere.
more than a few riders will be looking ahead to the rest day. ideal time for serious podium contenders to thin out the pretenders.
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Old 05-22-22, 05:55 AM
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Loving the uptick in Giro chatter here and in fantasy land! Caught the stage 14 extended highlights - 46 minutes worth!

JP "El Patrón" really needed a teamate!

Interesting that Bora decided to make it a GC day, since Carapaz really likes this rolling terrain. Props to Joe dombrowski for being really aggressive.

Busy this weekend with real world tasks but had a laugh when I tuned in momentarily yesterday to see the race just shredded!
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Old 05-22-22, 07:30 AM
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Here I was picking MVDP for a DNS and he's in the break going up the second monster hill of the day with two other "cheesemen" (per Sean Kelly). Chapeau, sir. I'm not worthy.

About 50k t go, first view of the peloton in a while, and there's a Bora green monster looming over the shoulder of the Ineos train. I don't think the fireworks are over there for the GC battle but I'm counting on a winner from the chasing group.

I hope Ciccone doesn't burn himself out. If he does, he could at least bring Carthy across first. C'mon boys. Where are your loyalties [to me]?
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Old 05-22-22, 09:25 PM
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Originally Posted by sincos
Bora are in a good position. I think Hindley will wait until the Cogne stage, but they may send Buchmann out as a rabbit and dare Trek to chase.
Wild to see Bora rip it up for GC like they have ridden TT for Sagan!
EF are also desperate though Carthy will probably wait for Cogne.
Nice call
Originally Posted by ooga-booga
def bummer about bardet. he looked good and bodes well for the rest of his season. i am excited, however, to see exactly
what arensman can do without bardet attracting all the attention.
Ah bummer - Was Arensman purposely loosing time after Bardet left? He lost 10 minutes in stage 14. Still 15th in GC, four minutes+ to top ten though.

Originally Posted by slcbob
I hope Ciccone doesn't burn himself out. If he does, he could at least bring Carthy across first. C'mon boys. Where are your loyalties [to me]?
​​​​​​​What's his loyalties to Juan Lopez? Whatever kept ciccone back yesterday is gone! Today Juan P rode in with the GC bunch. Nice to see Kudus and Carthy in the mix.

Then, on Saturday, the aliens land.
Spot on! Need to ride an ebike to feel what it would be like doing 300watts or 6w/kg or 3 rice cakes/hr.

---
Good Giro, stage 14 Saturday was awesome!If stars align we'll see Bardet and Biniam at the tour. But maybe Vuelta would be better for both? Hunt a stage in the tour in preparation? Biniam would add to an epic green jersey hunt.
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Old 05-23-22, 07:46 PM
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Well, a finely poised Giro going into the third week. High points for me have to be stage 10 and IWG. They're having a magical Giro and surely have exceeded all of their goals and expectations. Other high points for me so far: the performance of Bora, geriatric leadout man Pozzo at 1'01" (ok, so that's part of IWG), MVdPs constant aggression, the chaos and carnage of stage 14 -- though that's as much a function of having so little in the way of selective stages since Etna (Blockhaus being the other). Cav scoring another win.

Low points: While most stages have been highly entertaining, as a race not so much. It's so finely poised because most everything has been jammed into the final week, even for a Giro. Despite that, the shape of the race is basically going to be Bora vs Carapaz (happy to be proven wrong, though). The TTs: a GT doesn't need 150km of TTs, but < 30km is a joke. The prosecco cork. MVdP's constant aggression: I'm sure it's the flip side of being so strong -- Pogacar is another rider who pays so little attention to tactics -- but come on, pace yourself, it's a 3-week race.

Random comments: Carapaz has been the most aggressive of the GC guys, has to be the favorite at this point, and characteristically keeps trying, but he hasn't been able to put it away. 5 guys within a minute (+1) isn't exactly bossing the race. The Ineos train is as disciplined as ever, but they're no better than Bora the difference being that when Bora go, they change the race. Hindley looks great, but if one of the top 2 crack, I'm guessing it's less likely to be Carapaz. Going in, I was expecting Almeida to take the next step, but it doesn't look like he's quite ready. OTOH, the rest of the mountain stages may be long but they're pretty steady, unlike Superga or Blockhaus, which favors his style so he may be OK. OT3H, we're getting into serious altitude, so maybe not. Still, if he can keep it close he's got a TT at the end.

EF and BEX are real disappointments. Yates is either full on or off the back -- nothing new here, nor is there anything new in thinking that maybe this time he would put it all together -- but nope. Martin isn't quite as big a yoyo, but basically the question is top 10 or not, which is still better than Yates (to be fair, his squad is really using the Giro for getting in form for their Grand Fromage in July). There's still hope for EF in the high mountains, but frankly I'm not seeing it. Nibali's getting stronger as the race goes on and may yet throw a spanner in the works, or Landa may have a brilliant day (somehow holding off Bora and Ineos if he does) but it looks like the 3rd week is pretty set: Bora trying to crack Carapaz, and Almeida trying to hang on.
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