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Stage 17: Saint-Jean-de-Maurienne - Morzine

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Stage 17: Saint-Jean-de-Maurienne - Morzine

Old 06-25-06, 12:46 AM
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Stage 17: Saint-Jean-de-Maurienne - Morzine

Stage 17: Saint-Jean-de-Maurienne - Morzine, 199 km
 
Old 07-19-06, 02:19 PM
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Wow...this Tour is likely to not be decided until the final time trial. And, the top contenders, Pereiro, Kloden, Sastre, Evans, and Menchov, were within one minute of each other in the first time trial.

Because the top riders are likely to finish within a minute or two of each other at the final time trial, THIS stage is really the best opportunity to win the Tour. If any of the top contenders can finish this stage in the yellow jersey, with a two minute lead over the other guys, he has probably won the Tour. And, a contender who finishes this stage two minutes behind the yellow jersey has probably lost the Tour.

Looking into the crystal ball, it is absolutely clear that at the end of Stage 17, the guy in the yellow jersey will be Pereiro. Or Kloden. Or perhaps Saste, or Evans. Maybe Menchov...the crystal ball is getting cloudy again...
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Old 07-19-06, 02:26 PM
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All this nonsense about the stage not ending on a climb... I don't buy it. Sure, it's not the same, but there could be a VERY exciting finish because there is virtually no flats after the descent, i.e. there's nowhere to catch-up. Who wouldn't want to see Flandis cressing the Joux-Plane up three minutes and riding downhill "like [he] stole something" to pick-up more time? I don't see it happening that way, but a descent into the finish, given how close the top guys are right now promises to be very exciting!
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Old 07-19-06, 02:29 PM
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Unless someone has a bad day, (hereafter refered as "to Floyd", v, e.g."Man he just Floyded big time on that last climb") Sastre, Kloden, Menchov, Evans, and possibly Pereiro are very likely finishing same time tomorrow. Just a little too long from the Col Joux-Plane to Morzine for big time splits.
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Old 07-19-06, 02:35 PM
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Oboe guy, if its nonsense, give us an example from a modern tour where someone highly placed on GC made up significant time on the race leaders where the finish line was at least 12 k from the top of the final climb. I'm betting you've got to go back to Merckx
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Old 07-19-06, 03:22 PM
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3800m of climbing... another tough day. (5000m yesterday)

I agree, the descent after the last climb is not somewhere a single rider would lose a lot of time to a pack, and could be the last opportunity for some riders to make up time.
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Old 07-19-06, 03:27 PM
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Pardon the potentially dumb question here, but aren't most riders pretty equal descending? I mean, if a group of riders crests a col with, say, a 3 minute gap on the next group, how does that trailing group close the gap? Can they descend faster somehow? Does the front group descend more cautious with a lead and the chase group get more courageous? Or do they somehow channel Il Falco's downhilling skills?
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Old 07-19-06, 06:01 PM
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Originally Posted by merlinextraligh
Oboe guy, if its nonsense, give us an example from a modern tour where someone highly placed on GC made up significant time on the race leaders where the finish line was at least 12 k from the top of the final climb. I'm betting you've got to go back to Merckx
I don't think most finishing descents are as steep and techinical as this one. If one has better descending skills then another then they might gain some time, but it's hard for me to see filling any big gaps. I bet there are big gaps at the finish but... we'll all find out tomorrow.
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Old 07-19-06, 06:14 PM
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Originally Posted by merlinextraligh
Oboe guy, if its nonsense, give us an example from a modern tour where someone highly placed on GC made up significant time on the race leaders where the finish line was at least 12 k from the top of the final climb. I'm betting you've got to go back to Merckx
How about Paulos Savodelli losing the 2005 Giro on the road and getting the time back on the descent? Not much time, but a little, and a little goes a long way in this race.

This has to be the most exciting sports event I have seen in a long time.

Richard
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Old 07-19-06, 07:45 PM
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Originally Posted by CyLowe97
Pardon the potentially dumb question here, but aren't most riders pretty equal descending? I mean, if a group of riders crests a col with, say, a 3 minute gap on the next group, how does that trailing group close the gap? Can they descend faster somehow? Does the front group descend more cautious with a lead and the chase group get more courageous? Or do they somehow channel Il Falco's downhilling skills?
On the hard descents the previous stage, the peloton was not drafting. There's still a small advantage in being able to see a rider in front of you, to see how much to brake.

Even on straight downhills though, a chasing leader peloton will rarely have a heavy good downhiller near the front to lead a chase, so not only does the chase not have as much of a speed advantage compared to flats, but more importantly has a much lower % speed advantage (73 kph chasing 70 kph, vs. 50kph chasing 45kph). Over 12km, chasing 3kph faster might just get 20-30 seconds, instead of the 70 seconds or so pelotons usually gain on flats.
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Old 07-19-06, 07:46 PM
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hopefully they will actually show the descent on oln. whats with them always cutting to commercial or some rider/bike profile? they seem to skip alot of it.
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Old 07-19-06, 08:01 PM
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Originally Posted by crankstar
hopefully they will actually show the descent on oln. whats with them always cutting to commercial or some rider/bike profile? they seem to skip alot of it.
I was just in Europe for about a week and a half, and got to watch the Tour on Eurosport. Much better coverage than OLN: almost no commerials, no gratuitous Lance on Stage ___, 10/2 Moment, Power Descent of the Day crap. Actually I began to wish for some more commercials when I really needed to piss... but I digress. Also, when they did interviews or profiles or what have you, they kept the race on in a split screen sort of thing---very nice! And they didn't just interview American riders like OLN tends to do (except for the stage winner or yellow jersey), they interviewed lots of different people, in all languages, with one of the commentators translating at the same time. What the hell, does this guy have a Hitchhiker's Guide style babel fish in his ear?? How can he translate German, Spanish, French, etc. like that? Probably translated ahead of time...?

Anyways, great coverage from Eurosport, and very intelligent commentators. Wish I could get that network here, but Direct TV doesn't seem to have it.
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Old 07-19-06, 08:14 PM
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Here is my wild ass guess for tomorrow:

Landis gains 8 minutes in a crazy all out blitz.

Sastre takes yellow by a few seconds and its all blown up real good.
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Old 07-19-06, 09:21 PM
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Evans.
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Old 07-19-06, 10:10 PM
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Rumour has it Landis has installed a triple for tonight!
I reckon he'll need it!
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Old 07-19-06, 11:01 PM
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I'll take someone like hmmm a Spaniard or an Italian so how bouts Cunego, De La Fuente or Zubeldia for the stage win off of a break.
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Old 07-19-06, 11:43 PM
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I'll stick my neck out and make a bold prediction. . .there are not 8 minutes to be gained in this stage by anyone in the top 11 of the GC unless 10 of them are struck by lightning or some other act of divine intervention?
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Old 07-19-06, 11:49 PM
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Originally Posted by Hornbiker
Much better coverage than OLN: almost no commerials, no gratuitous Lance on Stage ___, 10/2 Moment, Power Descent of the Day crap. Actually I began to wish for some more commercials when I really needed to piss... but I digress.
TIVO helps alot. I can watch four hours of coverage in about 45 minutes.
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Old 07-20-06, 12:29 AM
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Originally Posted by HDTVKSS
Evans.
Go figure...an aussie picking Evans Good on ya mate.
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Old 07-20-06, 12:31 AM
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Kloden, Evans, and/or Sastre need to pick up more than a minute on Oscar if they want to wear yellow in Paris. I'm looking forward to a great stage. What a fun race to watch!
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Old 07-20-06, 03:12 AM
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Originally Posted by Panic
Here is my wild ass guess for tomorrow:

Landis gains 8 minutes in a crazy all out blitz.

Sastre takes yellow by a few seconds and its all blown up real good.
Panic...dont make a wild ass of yourself again
Landis to retire tomorrow with his dodgy hip as the excuse!
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Old 07-20-06, 04:57 AM
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It's on! Looks like a nice small, non-threatening break and the peleton is letting them go for now. Their legs must be hurting from yesterday. Many barely made it up the hill.
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Old 07-20-06, 05:42 AM
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Whooooo! I got eurosport.com audio... Floyd et. al just split the peloton, and I get the feeling he's riding to catch the leaders and see if he can get on the podium. This is fantastic.... so friggin' exciting. Go Floyd!

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Old 07-20-06, 05:45 AM
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I can't help but root for Floyd this year, and I am PISSED THAT MY TV IS BROKEN.

Go Floyd go. Hope this isn't a wasted effort like Levi's attack yesterday.
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Old 07-20-06, 05:49 AM
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Well, still good stuff. Listen to the eurosport. Whoo hooo! Landis just got another minute gained on the lead group. That man can fight!

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