Guest

Stage 19: Le Creusot - Montceau-les-Mines ITT, 56 km

a_fire_inside

Landis FTW

reef58

On a limb Hincapie to make up for his poor showing in the mountains. If not Hincapie I think Evans may take this.

Richard

Snuffleupagus

Landis stamps his authority all over this one...

Helmet Head

There will probably be little to no change in GC in stage 18, so this is the likely top 10 standings coming into the final TT.

[tt]
General classification after stage 17

1 Oscar Pereiro (Spa) Caisse d'Epargne-Illes Balears 80.08.49 (40.528 km/h)
2 Carlos Sastre (Spa) Team CSC 0.12
3 Floyd Landis (USA) Phonak 0.30
4 Andreas Klöden (Ger) T-Mobile 2.29
5 Cadel Evans (Aus) Davitamon-Lotto 3.08
6 Denis Menchov (Rus) Rabobank 4.14
7 Cyril Dessel (Fra) AG2R-Prevoyance 4.24
8 Christophe Moreau (Fra) AG2R-Prevoyance 5.45
9 Haimar Zubeldia (Spa) Euskaltel-Euskadi 8.16
10 Michael Rogers (Aus) T-Mobile 12.13
[/tt]

Now, let's look at how each of these guys performed in the first TT:

[tt]
23 Oscar Pereiro (Spa) Caisse d'Epargne-Illes Balears 2.40.92
18 Carlos Sastre (Spa) Team CSC 2.10.59
2 Floyd Landis (USA) Phonak 1.00.62
8 Andreas Klöden (Ger) T-Mobile 1.43.26
11 Cadel Evans (Aus) Davitamon-Lotto 1.49.39
9 Denis Menchov (Rus) Rabobank 1.43.90
38 Cyril Dessel (Fra) AG2R-Prevoyance 3.42.11
15 Christophe Moreau (Fra) AG2R-Prevoyance 2.03.46
36 Haimar Zubeldia (Spa) Euskaltel-Euskadi 3.31.84
4 Michael Rogers (Aus) T-Mobile 1.23.87
[/tt]

Now, if we take Floyd's 1 minute off of everyone's first TT time (basically just ignoring Honchar who was the only one who beat Floyd), and add that time to their current GC delta (the time they're behind Pereiro) and take off another 30 seconds (to make Floyd 0.00 and everyone relative to him), here's what I get:

[tt]
1 Landis 0.00
2 Sastre 0.52
3 Pereiro 1.10
4 Klöden 2.42
5 Evans 3.27
6 Menchov 4.27
7 Moreau 6.18
8 Dessel 6.36
9 Zubeldia 10.17
10 Rogers 12.06
[/tt]

BryE

Remember that Landis had a late start and mechanical difficulties along the way. We can only guess how much time this cost him, but it's beginning to look like even a few seconds will be important coming down to the finish.

Helmet Head

If you assume that Floyd will not have the problems he had in the first TT, and take into account that this TT is hilly and slightly longer, I would expect his lead to be bigger by a minute or more over each rider than those I calculated earlier, which took none of that into account.

Stallionforce

Is Landis good in hilly TT's?

I expect the final GC will be Landis, Pereiro, Sastre.

I am hoping Dave Z can take the stage.

Helmet Head

He's good in TTs and he's good in hills... you do the math...

ed073

Rasmussen to only fall off twice....


Mick Rogers the win...wearing the arc-en-ciel.

reef58

Floyd put out a huge effort today. I would be surprised if it effected his time trial some. I still think he is strong enough to close the gaps ahead of him, but with this tour who the heck knows. Oscar is not going to lay down, and neither is Sastre. I hope this race is not decided by crashes, flats, ect.

Kloden can lay down a mean time trial himself, and may be fresher than the 3 leaders. Who knows, but I do know if will be exciting.

Richard

Guest

I predict Rasmussen learned his lesson and does not fall. But perhaps there will be a new king of the malfunctions crowned after this stage.

Koffee

alanbikehouston

What if Pereiro, Sastre and Landis are within 30 seconds of one another AFTER the time trial? In recent years, the tradition has been that the top three riders don't race into Paris...they simply drink champagne, and finish in Paris in the same order that they begin the day.

But, if the one, two, three riders are within 30 seconds or so of the yellow jersey, there will be pressure to actually race on the last day...if that happens, the race end with the top contenders sprinting through the streets of Paris.

Regardless of who wins, the amazing collapse of Landis, followed by the astounding comeback of Landis, will make this one of the most memorable Tours in history.

gm1230126

It's reverse order start correct? That means Floyd gets to receive splits off all but two. This is a huge advantage for him also.

tinrobot

It's been tradition for a very long time. I doubt any rider would violate the trust of the other riders like that. In 89 Fignon was only 8 seconds behind LeMond and even he didn't challenge on the final stage.

Ceya

he did due it was a time trial.

S/F,
CEYA!

georgiaboy

Landis does not need to win the ITT. Just to post the right time to get the MJ.

ed073

Errr......you need to go back and check the '89 Tour archives, champ!!

Helmet Head

I predict the French are going to love and respect Floyd, even the French press (now that he has shown the panache...).

If so, then anyone who thought their issues with Lance was just anti-Americanism is going to have to explain this.

alanbikehouston

No. The race into Paris between Lemond and Fignon was designed to BE a race. That year, the final individual time trial was scheduled for the last day of the Tour. The top contenders were expected to ride all out. But, the "experts" said that Fignon's lead over Lemond was too much and Lemond had no chance.

Lemond did not believe that. He used aero bars (an innovation) an aero helmet, and rode flat out. Fignon rode a bike with a conventional set-up, let his ponytail flop around in the wind, and did not understand that he was in a real race until he was about five miles from the finish line. Later, Fignon did exactly what Lemond did when Lemond lost a race. Fignon claimed that a previously undisclosed injury had prevented him from riding well. One of the greatest stages in Tour history, starring the two whiniest guys to ever win a Tour.

Hawkear

Did you not watch Stage 17? What kind of question is that?

CyLowe97

See the ITT from this year's Tour de Georgia for your answer to that question

tinrobot

I did and you're right.... my bad.

I still think the time trial will decide it, but who knows with this tour.

merlinextraligh

No, its a disadvantage because the two that matter are the two that start after him. He'll still get updats form his team but Pereiro and Sastre will have the adavantage of getting slightly better information going after Landis. Down the stretch both Pereiro and Sastre will know exactly what they need to do.

USAZorro