alanbikehouston

The winner of the 2008 Tour de France is obvious...no need to wait three weeks for the "official" announcement...

Obviously, the winner will be one of the world's top ten cyclists, and someone who has ridden well in past Tours...that means the winner is certainly going to be Basso...or Boonen...or Contador, Hamilton, Landis, Leipheimer, Kloden, Rasmussen, Ullrich, or maybe Vinokourov...

What? None of the "Top Ten" contenders will even be STARTING the Tour in 2008? Well, let's look at guys who will be in the race.

Pereiro? A fluke, a one trick pony.

Hincapie? You think the French (or the French labs) would allow Hincapie to win? Yeah, right...


Sastre? Always finds a way to blow the Tour.

Valverde? Learned from Sastre...an expert on NOT winning.

Menchov? Cunego? Both will fold when the pressure is on.

So, Cadel Evans wins the 2008 Tour de France.

Now that we know the winner, we can spend the next three weeks riding our bikes, and ignoring the Tour.

Hezz

If Valverde can ride as well through the whole TDF as he has been the last month I would put my money on him. But this remains to be seen. Cadel seems to be the obvious choice as he is always good and consistant at grand tours.

DMF 

Ahem. It's not an individual sport. It's a TEAM sport. Who's got the team to support him?

GGDub

He'd have to seriously improve his climbing and time trialling before the french labs would even have to give a crap.

hoo_koo

The smart money so far seems to be on Cadel Evans. Contador has already picked him to win. He's got some good support behind him, including strong manYaroslav Popovich. Still, I want to see an attacking, aggressive Cadel in yellow, not the guy who keys off of everyone else's attacks.

When CSC announced their line-up, I began expecting them to throw their weight around during the race. Cancellara, Voigt, O'Grady... lotsa big names supporting Sastre, and the Schleck Brothers... Sastre's chances? I think he might be past his prime-- he's had a very quiet spring, but on the other hand, does this really mean he's saving himself for France? A 3-pronged attack could work for these guys, and the team will no doubt end up supporting whoever's going best in the final week. I think they've got the strongest team on paper, but their leader is still a question.

IMHO, another strong lineup is, surprisingly, Garmin-Chipotle-- David Millar & Christian Vandevelde have some great support riders in Ryder Hesjedal, Will Frischkorn & Danny Pate, among others. I don't expect them to win, but I think they'll make some moves worth watching. A stage win would be awesome.

Team Columbia also will be pretty stacked with Kim Kirchen, George Hincapie and surprise Tour of Georgia winner Kanstantsin Svitsov, plus a host of good support riders. George may be the sentimental choice in the twilight of his career, but Columbia is probably banking more on Kirchen for their GC hopes.

My dark horse pick is Rabobank's Denis Menchov. A perennial pick amongst the press, but yet to truly make his mark in the Tour-- this could be his year in a wide-open field, but I don't think the Dutch boys are fielding as strong a team as they have before. If Menchov tanks this year I think management will look towards Thomas Dekker to replace him in the future. But Dekker was passed over this year because of poor form, so Menchov will have at least one more shot.

With no Contador, that means much of Spain will be looking to Alejandro Valverde for the win. He's on terrific form and has got a decent enough team. He can pretty much do it all. the question is, did he already leave too much of himself out on the roads of the Dauphine & Spring Classics? I vote "No"-- I think he's ready to start winning this thing.

My picks (no surprises here): 1) Valverde 2) Evans 3) Menchov

alanbikehouston

A few years ago, there was a "contest" on "Bike Forums" to pick the winner of the Tour de France. My vague recollection is that a couple of hundred people posted to place their "bets" on who the winner of the Tour would be. This year, we have 2 1/2 "bets" on the table. (Saying that "either A or B will win" is just half a bet).

The fact that interest in the Tour has faded away to close to zero here in the USA is an indication of the impact of drug abuse in the Tour: most cyclists in the USA are more likely to spend July riding their bikes than closely watching the Tour.

marin1

I'd say it has more to do with Lance retiring, most americans could not even name another cyclist.

Ih8lucky13

You have to be joking .If that was true baseball would not be at an all time high in attendance.

The Festina Affair would have made Lance a nobody.


Give me a break . Americans only like fringe sports when Americans dominate them. Plain and simple.

2wheeled

ditto

Hezz

Most Americans who have lost interest in the TDF weren't that interested to begin with. THey seem to accept doping problems in football and baseball and even basketball without losing any sleep.

cjbruin

Funny, I read the original post and thought..."What kind of moron would think that Boonen would be a favorite in the TdF?" Then I looked to the left...explains everything.

By the way, there are a lot of Americans who will follow the TdF this year but I would say many of us are disappointed in what the french have done to the race. Not inviting the team with last year's winner and the best DS in the sport. Add to that...no prologue time trial for the first time since the 60's, no time bonuses, and the tired old feud with UCI so the french labs will be doing the drug testing. The french are more to blame for the lack of interest in this year's race than anyone.

embankmentlb

alanbikehouston, your logic makes so sense except for Hincapie. Hincapie**********

embankmentlb

Cycling will always be a fringe sport in the US. Every once and awhile you have a Armstrong or Lemond that the average Joe can get id with. To the average Joe six pack cycling is not cool. It's a yuppie sport. The opposite is true in europe. Cycle racing is a blue collar sport. Remember John Kerry in his presidential bid? The press made him look like an idiot out on his 10 speed & bike get-up.

bac

I seem to remember big George as the GC guy in 2006. It wasn't the French who killed his GC chance - it was the fact that George is not a grand tour GC guy.

He's a great racer, but he has no chance of winning.

... Brad

wvxc

Cunego will either shine or burn.

roadwarrior

Then why are people still watching baseball and football?

Oops...

Great line I heard last week...

The PGA Tour has instituted drug testing. Steve Stricker said they only need to test one guy, because nobody can beat him anyway.

roadwarrior

10 speed???

How quaint.

roadwarrior

One only need look at the source of the thread. This is the same guy that told me in a thread a few years ago that Sora was "just as good as" Dura Ace.

"Just as good as": Four words that mean "I can't afford it."

Talon

I predict that whoever wins the TdF will have their career ruined by doping accusations.
Unless it's a French rider.
'you go first'
'no, you deserve this win'
'nono, I insist'

BananaTugger

Remy Di Gregorio.

Rex G

Tour de what? FWIW, I don't watch pro basketball, football, or baseball, either. I did get interested in professional road cycling for a few years, after I bought my first road bike in 1998, and soon afterward started hearing about some guy named Lance, from Texas, my home state. I still try to be interested, but mostly just like the technical stuff, finding I like the bikes a lot more than the athletes who ride them. I do still love watching the peloton winding its way through beautiful country, but not enough to wish I had cable or satellite TV. I find Italy to be more scenic, anyway, and look forward to the Giro DVD showing up at the LBS.

Laggard

Wow. I haven't been here a while but it's good to see that Alan is still spreading his unique brand of uninformed idiocy.

Valverde an expert on not winning?

2006 Pro tour
20006 Fleche Wallone
2006, 2008 Liege Bastogne Liege
2008 Spanish Road champion
Two TDF and three Vuelta stages

Yep, the guy's a loser. Wow.

And yes, the TDF has lost interest here simply becuse Lance the God no longer is involved.

slacker00

In the U.S., cycling needs another Lance Armstrong 100x more than golf needs Tiger Woods or basketball needs another Michael Jordan. Cycling is probably as interesting as Chess or Soccer as far as Americans are concerned. Unless they can condense the entire event into a single highlight clip, Americans lose interest. Cycling's problem for Americans is that the greatest beauty of the sport is in the subtle details and can't be captured in an hour-long weekend recap, which is all that has ever been offered on the major TV networks here.

40 Cent

I thought that was Valverde's forte

PeddlingPilgrim

Mauricio SOLER! lol.