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TDF- How big is Contador's lead?

Old 07-19-09, 11:34 AM
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thedon
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TDF- How big is Contador's lead?

Armstrong is trailing Contador by 1:34 last I saw.

How big of a lead is this in conventional sports terms?

Is it equivalent to a 8 point lead after the third quarter of a basketball game?

Maybe a 10 point lead at halftime of a football game?

Is it a lead that Armstrong has a realistic chance of overcoming?
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Old 07-19-09, 11:36 AM
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Originally Posted by thedon View Post
Armstrong is trailing Contador by 1:34 last I saw.

How big of a lead is this in conventional sports terms?

Is it equivalent to a 8 point lead after the third quarter of a basketball game?

Maybe a 10 point lead at halftime of a football game?

Is it a lead that Armstrong has a realistic chance of overcoming?
He might pick up time in the TT but given what happened today, will lose chunks of time on Ventoux to the top climbers.
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Old 07-19-09, 11:43 AM
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His lead is big. Very big. 2 touchdowns with 2 minutes to go. Andy appears to be the only climber that can come close, but he will lose even more time in the ITT. Armstrong has no chance to catch Alberto. Lance has some advantage over the better climbers since he can build a cushion in the ITT.

Richard
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Old 07-19-09, 11:49 AM
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Originally Posted by reef58 View Post
His lead is big. Very big. 2 touchdowns with 2 minutes to go. Andy appears to be the only climber that can come close, but he will lose even more time in the ITT. Armstrong has no chance to catch Alberto. Lance has some advantage over the better climbers since he can build a cushion in the ITT.

Richard
Big but not that big.
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Old 07-19-09, 11:53 AM
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Yes that big.

Richard

Originally Posted by julian View Post
Big but not that big.
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Old 07-19-09, 11:56 AM
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Originally Posted by reef58 View Post
Yes that big.

Richard
absolutely huge. lance was lucky to have kloden pacing him or he would have lost even more "huge chunks of time" .

ed rader
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Old 07-19-09, 11:56 AM
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Originally Posted by reef58 View Post
Yes that big.

Richard
So you are saying over 99%?
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Old 07-19-09, 12:02 PM
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considering the competition. pretty big lead.
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Old 07-19-09, 12:04 PM
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It's pretty big... part of the issue as well is how much each of them has left in the tank. Contador looked smooth the whole time, Armstrong looked chewed up.

Another way to see it is: it's a big enough gap that Astana should line up and support Contador.
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Old 07-19-09, 12:05 PM
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Sad to hear this, I was pulling for Lance.

Now the road accusations will be fueled and Lance will get no credit for the comeback.
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Old 07-19-09, 12:06 PM
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That is what I don't like about the tour. We all know it is over now.
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Old 07-19-09, 12:10 PM
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If we were talking about him being down on someone from another team, I'd say he could probably pull it back on the TT and Ventoux. But there's no way he's going to attack Contador on Ventoux, even if he had the legs to do it, and he's not likely to get any time back on the TT either.

A strong contender on a very strong team could probably get another 1:34 out of a rival, but I don't think anyone's taking any time out of Astana this year.
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Old 07-19-09, 12:11 PM
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Everyone knew Contador would take time out of everyone- including Lance- and will continue to do so.
However Contador needs a little buffer going into the final TT because it's flat and suits the specialists.
Lance could potentially take a chunk of time out of Contador.

My feeling is it won't be enough. Contador has become a real quality TT'er and I don't see him loosing more than maybe 1:00 at the most.
With a few more mountains, he will take another min or two out of everyone and have a good buffer.
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Old 07-19-09, 12:13 PM
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Originally Posted by thedon View Post
Sad to hear this, I was pulling for Lance.

Now the road accusations will be fueled and Lance will get no credit for the comeback.
Second place is no small feat, and he's riding as the "road captain" for the strongest rider out there now. Who wouldn't want to be in his shoes?

To me, there's way more class to that than to somehow tactically work himself into the yellow ahead of a stronger rider on his own team (as some speculation was going).

Last edited by daxr; 07-19-09 at 12:16 PM.
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Old 07-19-09, 12:15 PM
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Originally Posted by daxr View Post
But there's no way he's going to attack Contador on Ventoux, even if he had the legs to do it, and he's not likely to get any time back on the TT either.
well if Lance had the legs, he would stay w/ Contador. You can take that to the bank!
But he can't. No one can stay with Contador- he is a class above.

Still, a podium after all Lance has been through would be spectacular.

I think Sastre could work his way into a podium too.
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Old 07-19-09, 12:17 PM
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Originally Posted by daxr View Post
Second place is no small feat, and he's riding as the "road captain" for the strongest rider out there now. Who wouldn't want to be in his shoes?

To me, there's way more class to that than to somehow tactically work himself into the yellow ahead of a stronger rider on his own team (as some speculation was going).
lance armstrong for one .

ed rader
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Old 07-19-09, 12:19 PM
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Originally Posted by cruiserhead View Post
well if Lance had the legs, he would stay w/ Contador. You can take that to the bank!
But he can't. No one can stay with Contador- he is a class above.

Still, a podium after all Lance has been through would be spectacular.

I think Sastre could work his way into a podium too.
that podium is getting awful crowded. my take is lance will not make the podium so maybe that does make room for sastre.

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Old 07-19-09, 01:11 PM
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Considering the time trial Sastre has his work cut out to catch Armstrong. He will have to take 4 or 5 minutes on stage 20. That is a tall order.

Richard

Originally Posted by erader View Post
that podium is getting awful crowded. my take is lance will not make the podium so maybe that does make room for sastre.

ed rader
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Old 07-19-09, 01:18 PM
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The chances of Armstrong catching Contador? I would say .0001 %. He can't attack his teammate even if he could. I doubt he can.

If Lance was smart he would have been there to support Alberto in exchange for a breakaway on stage
20.

My guess is 50% chance Lance maintains #3 spot unless he is mentally defeated now then he could really fall hard. It may be in his best interest to lose big chunks of time for a shot at stage 20.

Richard

Originally Posted by julian View Post
So you are saying over 99%?
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Old 07-19-09, 01:29 PM
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Originally Posted by reef58 View Post
Considering the time trial Sastre has his work cut out to catch Armstrong. He will have to take 4 or 5 minutes on stage 20. That is a tall order.

Richard
that was my way of saying that armstrong wouldn't make the podium....not that sastre would . i think lance will give up huge chunks on stage 20. his best shot for a stage win would be the ITT, and that's a longshot too.

ed rader
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Old 07-19-09, 01:34 PM
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It's not that the lead is exceptionally huge, it's who has the lead.

Imagine Tiger with a 3 stroke lead and 2 to play, or the Jordan Bulls up 6 with 2 minutes to go, or Federer with a 5-4 advantage in the final set, or Peyton Manning needing a single first down to ice the game.

Do you really think you're coming back? Really?
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Old 07-19-09, 01:41 PM
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Originally Posted by cruiserhead View Post
I think Sastre could work his way into a podium too.
Sastre came back in good form after being dropped today but I just don't see this happening. I think it will be similar to the Giro in that he will do well overall but have a significant gap between himself and the podium. Still, I'm a fan of his and would love to be wrong! Contador, on the other hand, looked like he could skip the rest day and still repeat today's performance.
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Old 07-19-09, 01:50 PM
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I think Contador won the Tour today. Nobody can outclimb him. He's a decent TT rider and it would take a truly exceptional one to beat him there. And that exceptional one wouldn't likely be a climber. I think it's over.
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Old 07-19-09, 01:56 PM
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Originally Posted by reef58 View Post
The chances of Armstrong catching Contador? I would say .0001 %. He can't attack his teammate even if he could. I doubt he can.
he has dug himself into this hole. even if he has the leg in one of next week's stages, he cannot attack. he was the one who acted noble and claimed to be team player last week after AC's attack. now what will the world think of him if he attack his own race leader next week?

LA is finished.
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Old 07-19-09, 02:01 PM
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Originally Posted by thedon View Post
Armstrong is trailing Contador by 1:34 last I saw.

How big of a lead is this in conventional sports terms?

Is it equivalent to a 8 point lead after the third quarter of a basketball game?

Maybe a 10 point lead at halftime of a football game?

Is it a lead that Armstrong has a realistic chance of overcoming?


Cycling is a conventional sport.

Oh...and unless Contador gets sick or falls off, it's over..................
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