Roadierookie

I have heard a lot of people saying that Contador may lose the Tour because he doesn't have the strongest team. I really don't think that will matter much since the Tour will be decided in the mountains and the final TT. Let's face it, he will not lose time on the cobbles and he is one of the strongest, if not the strongest climbers and time trialists.

There is no TTT this year and it's not like AC had a lot of support in the mountains last year or needed it. Lance and Andy Schleck have stronger teams but if AC uses his head and arrives in the form he showed last year, everyone will be fighting for 2nd and 3rd.

Thoughts?

P.S. I am not an AC fan and do not want him to win but I think it will be his Tour to lose.

FlashBazbo

The strong teams (Radio Shack and Rabo Bank immediately come to mind) have more than one legitimate GC contender. That means they have more than one potential winner to attack and cover attacks. Contador, on the other hand, has to cover all the attacks of the other teams -- both the real attacks and those intended only to soften him up. And he has no feint.

That's true as much in the mountains as anywhere else.

rogwilco

Road cycling is a team sport. A great cyclist can't win a grand tour alone any more than a great football player can make a **** team win in the long run.

Roadierookie

Thanks for the cycling 101 lecture but I still think he can win on his own

guadzilla

The rest of the Astana team is no slouch. And dont forget, there ARE other teams with GC contenders who will also cover any attacks.

V.

Nimitz87

AC hasn't exactly showed stellar form this year so far I see many GC contenders and teams attacking right from the get go when they get to the mountains to see whats really in his legs.

why won't he lose time on the cobbles? what if there is a split in the pack like last year?

AC also isn't the best tactician IMO.

Chad

Romans8:28

Do you mind if I ask who on Astana "helped cover the attacks" for him last year?

Romans8:28

LOL......

He outsmarted LA and JB when it mattered.

rogwilco

What if he has a mechanical defect and has to chase back to the peloton alone in the wind, what if he's thirsty and doesn't have any team mates around to give him water? Or a million other similar things that can happen in a 3-week-tour? All of that costs energy and can be the difference between victory and defeat. Having strong team mates around improves a cyclist's chances of success significantly, especially in a grand tour where consistency is so important.

Btw. I think Astana is not a weak team and is strong enough to help contador win.

Nimitz87

um this isn't last year.

how so they were on the same team regardless of what you think about the LA/AC controversy. he won yes, has made mistakes not making the break, attacking his own team mates, etc.

Chad

Romans8:28

Your right, this is the 2010 Tour... but, the situation remains the same. When push comes to shove all the top QC threats have to "man up" usually without team mates. That's why they are the team leaders, they are meant to ride the final kilometers alone when the road turns up.

They may have had on the same jersey's but they most certainly were not a genuine "team". JB and LA did their very best to put LA in yellow before AC, and had they been successful it would have put Alberto in a tough spot. He would have been prohibited from "attacking" the yellow jersey (assuming Lance had it going into the final mountain stages).
Alberto (to his credit) knew that and did precisely what he had to do, when he had to do it.

USAZorro

That's presuming he doesn't just attack on those mountain stages himself.

Obviously, he has to pick his moments for this, but he does have three teammates who are respectable climbers, and that, I think, should be enough.

USAZorro

Liquigas should have come to mind before those two.

OrionKhan

Right on both points. There seems to be a mindset floating about that AC will wait and cover attacks. I think the other GC contenders are more concerned about AC attacking on the mountains. AC is the one guy in the field who has shown that he can drop anyone on a steep long climb. And he's not afraid to go out on the attack, despite team orders last year. It will be interesting to watch his strategy this year. I think it will be more aggressive early on as opposed to last year.

Basso and the other Liquigas boys are looking strong this year. Without the TTT, they be a team to watch in the mountain. They looked very good at the Giro.

colombo357

He sure "outsmarted" Kloden and then "outsmarted" his own team giving Frank Schleck a stage win.

ultraman6970

Vino will go for the win this year at the TdF. Contador is too dumb sometimes and he is not reliable.

OrionKhan

The whole AC making tactical errors thing is overplayed. His strategy has gone against team orders at times. The only reason its a story is because LA was on the team.

He's a great climber and time trialist. The guy has won the last four grand tours he's raced in. He doesn't need a great team. He needs a decent one. And Astana will field one. Vino won't be a factor. Vino will be in the mix right up until the separation on the huge climbs. Then he'll lose ground. He saw as much in the Giro. No amount of tactical riding and team strength is going to beat AC. Its going to take a rider that can out climb and beat him in the TT. Having a strong team doesn't help on a HC climb finish or the TT. That's were the time gaps come. AC needs to avoid general bad luck like crashes, positive tests, injury, split peloton's, etc. Radioshack, Saxo, Liquigas, can have strong teams. But it won't matter if they're all behind AC when HE on the climbs that matter.

Nimitz87

we'll see but from what I have seen of AC this year...he won't be riding people off his wheel so easily.

Chad

OrionKhan

I don't put to much stock into what he's done this season. AC has pretty much become a TdF specialist. Everything is set up to peak in July. I think that's unfortunate. I'd like to see him try the Giro/TdF double. At his age, he could put a serious run at the Cannibal's mark for grand tour wins.

Pedaleur

Victories in 2010 so far: 8

victories: CRITÉRIUM DU DAUPHINÉ prologue (ITT), stage 6. VUELTA A CASTILLA Y LEÓN, stage 4 (ITT). PARIS-NICE overall, stage 4. VOLTA AO ALGARVE overall, stage 3.

guadzilla

Yeah, yeah... but... but.... he's a bad strategist. He only did what needed to be done to re-establish himself as numero uno in last year's Astana TdF team. How terribly stupid of him.

IAWYP, btw.

rogwilco

I've only watched Contador in Paris-Nice and the Dauphine I think, but I thought he was very impressive. Ok, he couldn't ride away from Brajkovic on Alpe d'Huez, but Brajkovic is a phenomenal cyclist also who was probably closer to peak form at that point than Contador.

I don't know what you think you saw that would make you think he's not at least as good as last year.

OrionKhan

I agree. I was responding to Nimitz (from what I have seen of AC this year...he won't be riding people off his wheel so easily) I think there are some out there who don't think AC has been dominating enough this season. Its not like the guy has been getting his arse handed to him every race this season. Pretty impressive results for a guy building to peak in July.

Romans8:28

LOL......... what team?

You mean the guys who were doing their best to screw him? The same team who drove the peleton in a wind splintered field with their supposed leader off the back? Who did not wait when he flatted? Who left him off the team bus? Who forced him to purchase his own TT wheels at the last minute? Who refused to celebrate with him?

Either you watched a different race, of have a case of Lance blindness.

Alberto played things to perfection (given the circumstances) and won.

FlashBazbo

They shouldn't be modest. The Astana team is a tremendous slouch!

But don't forget -- if those other teams with GC contenders cover and Contador can't, it doesn't help Contador. It hurts him.