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Odds Armstrong wins a stage

Old 07-12-10, 11:36 AM
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Very low, closer to 0% than 50%.
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Old 07-12-10, 11:49 AM
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Next thread: Odds Armstrong not finishing the Tour?
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Old 07-12-10, 01:42 PM
  #28  
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i think lance is broken and there's a better chance of him bowing out than winning a stage.

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Old 07-12-10, 04:19 PM
  #29  
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no I don't think he'll bail...it's his last tour and he'll finish it. Although I am sure he is not very comfortable today, with three crashes. He must have a really sore back and that is going to take a few days...I fell on my back a couple of times and I can testify that it hurts like hell for days, and I'm sure it's happened to many of us. But we didn't have to climb the alps!
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Old 07-12-10, 04:34 PM
  #30  
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I wouldn't bet on him winning a stage.
They're not gonna let him ride away, and I doubt he has the form to drop the leaders.
His best role would be to be a super domestique for Levi--kinda like Hinualt was for Lemond in '86.
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Old 07-12-10, 05:23 PM
  #31  
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Originally Posted by Cat4Lifer View Post
I wouldn't bet on him winning a stage.
They're not gonna let him ride away, and I doubt he has the form to drop the leaders.
His best role would be to be a super domestique for Levi--kinda like Hinualt was for Lemond in '86.
...except that The Badger would disregard your disrespectful classification of him ever being remotely close to a "super domestique", whatever that is.

1986 TdF, Hinault:
- 3 stage victories, polka dot jersey, 2nd overall, combativity award, 5 days in the maillot jaune. "Super domestique"?

Forget about Lance for a minute, I'd like to see Levi get 1 stage victory...
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Old 07-12-10, 06:00 PM
  #32  
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Originally Posted by Cat4Lifer View Post
I wouldn't bet on him winning a stage.
They're not gonna let him ride away, and I doubt he has the form to drop the leaders.
His best role would be to be a super domestique for Levi--kinda like Hinualt was for Lemond in '86.
A Badger amoung the pigeons perhaps, not a super domestique.
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Old 07-12-10, 07:06 PM
  #33  
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No telling how many people he punched out that year, either.

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Old 07-12-10, 08:15 PM
  #34  
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I think it's hard to believe that either AS or AC will let him go... they will use any attack by LA as a challenge to the other contenders...so he won't get away...and if he doesn't ...there is no way he will win the stage....it was all pretty obvious for the last couple stages....LA is one bad competitor...but he is too old, and too slow...and doesn't have the explosiveness he used to have that the young guys have...

I can appreciate it all. I'm in my early 60's and don't even have the power I had in my 50's.... hopefully a slow downward transition.... but it is obvious that LA would be blown off if he had experienced zero crashes...

Thanks for the memories...there is a time for the older guys to know that the younger guys are actually SUPERIOR...as both AS and AC are compared to LA
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Old 07-12-10, 08:21 PM
  #35  
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"I ain't as good as I once was. But I'm as good once as I ever was." - Toby Keith
My mantra as well. Good enough for a stage win? I guess we'll just have to wait and see . . .
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Old 07-12-10, 09:48 PM
  #36  
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Good grief guys. You think Lance went from a top five tour contender last year to someone who can't hold the wheel of the guy in 86th place? Really? He had a bad day. The crashed added up, the chases added up, but the nail I think was the heat Saturday. I have noticed as I have gotten older the heat zaps me now, and it was the final straw for Lance. He will recover some if he can keep from crashing. He had a bad day like Landis in 06. That didn't mean Landis could hold a wheel anymore. Had a bad day. Lance's bad days are noticable now because he has no margin of error. He would have needed things to go perfectly to podium. Now that's over, but Lance is a strong rider. He rode Popo off of his wheel, but of course Popo pulled him for a ways.

Lance is going to make a mark on this tour. I suspect his mark will be handing out punishment. Imagine tomorrow (maybe too soon), or next week Radio Shack setting tempo right out of the gate. I suspect that will be Lance's mark. Pain for the entire stage if you want to keep up. The field will be shattered in the first hour with riders all over the course. Hell them may even drop Levi. A strong man is going to win this tour. I wish for Basso or Rogers, but I suspect it will be AS or AC. As long as Evans doesn't win it's all good.

Richard
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Old 07-12-10, 10:36 PM
  #37  
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Originally Posted by reef58 View Post
Good grief guys. You think Lance went from a top five tour contender last year to someone who can't hold the wheel of the guy in 86th place? Really? He had a bad day. The crashed added up, the chases added up, but the nail I think was the heat Saturday. I have noticed as I have gotten older the heat zaps me now, and it was the final straw for Lance. He will recover some if he can keep from crashing. He had a bad day like Landis in 06. That didn't mean Landis could hold a wheel anymore. Had a bad day. Lance's bad days are noticable now because he has no margin of error. He would have needed things to go perfectly to podium. Now that's over, but Lance is a strong rider. He rode Popo off of his wheel, but of course Popo pulled him for a ways.

Lance is going to make a mark on this tour. I suspect his mark will be handing out punishment. Imagine tomorrow (maybe too soon), or next week Radio Shack setting tempo right out of the gate. I suspect that will be Lance's mark. Pain for the entire stage if you want to keep up. The field will be shattered in the first hour with riders all over the course. Hell them may even drop Levi. A strong man is going to win this tour. I wish for Basso or Rogers, but I suspect it will be AS or AC. As long as Evans doesn't win it's all good.

Richard
lance also had a "bad day" on the cobbles and he's crashed more times this year than he did in his whole career.

"he's dead, jim".

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Old 07-12-10, 11:08 PM
  #38  
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I guess Lance brings out so much emotion in people that they cannot think logically. Can Lance winf the TDF no, I didn't think he would win. I don't really like the guy. That being said his threshold power hasn't dropped 50% since July 1st. What has changed is he is older and doesn't recover quickly. He can't hang day in and day out. Now that being said his power to weight is probably still right there with Contador, but not everyday. If Lance wants to win a stage he can ride anybody the GC's allow to follow him off of his wheel. Again in a one day race. He may pay the next day by losing 20 minutes. Do you really think Chavanel is a superior TDF rider to Lance? Do you think he has a higher power to weight than Lance? Really?

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Old 07-12-10, 11:24 PM
  #39  
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reef58

do you read what you write? "He rode Popo off of his wheel, but of course Popo pulled him for a ways."

Of course he can ride his team off his wheel after they pull for 5-7,5KM... that is what all GC contenders can do...

He is definitely the GREATEST...but way beyond his prime....Time to give it up...
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Old 07-13-10, 01:04 AM
  #40  
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I agree with the previous posters who said that the odds of an LA stage win are slim to none. The soreness that he's undoubtedly feeling from his crashes won't help his cause either.

I used to be a fan of Lance but lost respect for him during last year's Tour. But he would regain that respect if he were to come out and say that he would be Levi's domestique. Levi was Lance's domestique for so many years, it would be a nice way to thank Levi for what he did all those years to help Lance win 7 Tour titles. It might not be the way that Lance wanted to go out in his last Tour, but it would be the correct and manly thing to do.
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Old 07-13-10, 06:44 AM
  #41  
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I don't really have anything to give up. Not a Lance fan. I just don't understand why everyone thinks he has plummeted to such low ability he cannot keep up with a rider like Chavanel?

Richard
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Old 07-13-10, 08:22 AM
  #42  
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Lance may win this stage yet
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Old 07-13-10, 08:37 AM
  #43  
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Originally Posted by DXchulo View Post
The whole go in a break and drop back thing always seems to work better in theory. Most of the time the guy in the break is dead tired already and the best he can do is hand off a bottle and maybe take a 1-minute pull.
Jens is the exception to the rule.
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Old 07-13-10, 11:39 AM
  #44  
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Originally Posted by DXchulo View Post
Jens is the exception to the rule.
Yes, that was a pretty heroic effort today. By the time he'd finished pacing Schleck he was so cooked he almost fell off the bike - but still recovered to come in with the Leipheimer group.
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Old 07-13-10, 11:54 AM
  #45  
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There is NO way the peloton will let him get into a break. They are very careful about who gets into the breaks and for a variety of reasons he will not be allowed to go into a break with more than 1 or 2 folks (maybe not even then). This means a TT win (doubtful but possible) or a solo breakaway a la Landis but the reality is he has never been able to do this and now doesn't have the ability.

To the folks who don't understand why he could be podium last year and this year is not capable of staying with the leaders . . well, it does happen fast. Look at LeMond (though he blames everyone else doping). The young guns are GETTING STRONGER week over week, year over year. Lance (and all older athletes) are GETTING WEAKER. So they are getting faster, he is getting slower which magnifies the relative comparisons.
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Old 07-13-10, 12:31 PM
  #46  
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I think this thread is about his ability to win a stage not make the podium, or even stay with the GC guys.

Richard

Originally Posted by acrafton View Post
There is NO way the peloton will let him get into a break. They are very careful about who gets into the breaks and for a variety of reasons he will not be allowed to go into a break with more than 1 or 2 folks (maybe not even then). This means a TT win (doubtful but possible) or a solo breakaway a la Landis but the reality is he has never been able to do this and now doesn't have the ability.

To the folks who don't understand why he could be podium last year and this year is not capable of staying with the leaders . . well, it does happen fast. Look at LeMond (though he blames everyone else doping). The young guns are GETTING STRONGER week over week, year over year. Lance (and all older athletes) are GETTING WEAKER. So they are getting faster, he is getting slower which magnifies the relative comparisons.
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Old 07-13-10, 12:40 PM
  #47  
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Originally Posted by acrafton View Post
There is NO way the peloton will let him get into a break. They are very careful about who gets into the breaks and for a variety of reasons he will not be allowed to go into a break with more than 1 or 2 folks (maybe not even then). This means a TT win (doubtful but possible) or a solo breakaway a la Landis but the reality is he has never been able to do this and now doesn't have the ability.

To the folks who don't understand why he could be podium last year and this year is not capable of staying with the leaders . . well, it does happen fast. Look at LeMond (though he blames everyone else doping). The young guns are GETTING STRONGER week over week, year over year. Lance (and all older athletes) are GETTING WEAKER. So they are getting faster, he is getting slower which magnifies the relative comparisons.
Wow, you are an expert.
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Old 07-13-10, 09:10 PM
  #48  
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Originally Posted by DXchulo View Post
Jens is the exception to the rule.
Lol. I came back to this thread, to pull up the quote

That was an example of how it is supposed to work.

I was thinking however, wheter Saxo would not have been better off letting Jens sit on the last kilometer or so on the Madeline, and then using him on the descent and the run in.

I guess it was a calcualte decision of whether he could hang to the top with AC and AS, and how you get the most time on everyone else total.
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Old 07-13-10, 09:15 PM
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Originally Posted by acrafton View Post
There is NO way the peloton will let him get into a break. They are very careful about who gets into the breaks and for a variety of reasons he will not be allowed to go into a break with more than 1 or 2 folks (maybe not even then).
Note that my hypothesis that starts the thread is dependent on Armstrong dropping some more time. If he gets 20 plus minutes down, his leash gets a bit longer.
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Old 07-13-10, 10:01 PM
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Word has it that Armstrong is going to save up all his energy for the Champs Elysees. He is now a sprinter.
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