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Odds Armstrong wins a stage

Old 07-12-10, 07:02 AM
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Odds Armstrong wins a stage

I bet he does. He's got a huge ego and force of will. I can't believe he wants to leave Stage 8 as the last memory people have of him in the TDF.

I think he drops a bit more time, in the Alps, recovers a bit, and goes into the Pyranees with a very long leash. Then he's free to attack early to get a stage (or to be up the road to help Levi) ala Hincapie and Pla d'Adet.
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Old 07-12-10, 07:38 AM
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0 chance.

If they let him go he won't be alone and, based on his performance so far he will either crash into the other guys (repeatedly) and/or get dropped. He can't win a sprint with 5 to 10 young guys, all of whom want to beat him.

Sadly he is done.
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Old 07-12-10, 07:45 AM
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I don't know. There are a couple stages that should suit him and even the ITT theoretically, but it all depends on whether he gets his form back. I doubt the GC favourites would be comfortable letting him go in a breakaway unless he's 30 minutes or so behind. And would a stage win even be much of a consolation for him?
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Old 07-12-10, 07:53 AM
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I think he will def try for a stage win.
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Old 07-12-10, 07:55 AM
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Originally Posted by acrafton View Post
0 chance.

He can't win a sprint with 5 to 10 young guys, all of whom want to beat him.

Sadly he is done.
He doesn't have the form to ride with Contador, etc. But he can still outclimb most of the peleton. Very good chance he could ride away from his breakaway companions on a final climb.

Originally Posted by rogwilco View Post
I doubt the GC favourites would be comfortable letting him go in a breakaway unless he's 30 minutes or so behind.
This is why he should work for Leipheimer in the next two Alpine stages. Help Leipheimer, drop off and lose time. By the Pyranees, he's got enough leesh to be let go.

Originally Posted by rogwilco View Post
And would a stage win even be much of a consolation for him
Would you rather have people's last TDF memory of you be 1) soloing to a stage win up the Tourmalet, or 2) not even being able to keep up with your teammates on Stage 8?
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Old 07-12-10, 07:58 AM
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Slim to none.
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Old 07-12-10, 07:59 AM
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Originally Posted by merlinextraligh View Post

Would you rather have people's last TDF memory of you be 1) soloing to a stage win up the Tourmalet, or 2) not even being able to keep up with your teammates on Stage 8?
Yes, but there's a reason he couldn't keep up with his teammates, and it wasn't just the crashes. He looks in seriously poor form. I'd be very surprised if he has it in him to win a stage - especially not the Tourmalet...
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Old 07-12-10, 08:04 AM
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There's a difference between being good for one day, and being good for 21 days.

And I think people are overstating how bad his form is. I think he very likely would have lost time on Stage 8 without the crashes, but the crashes, and the ensuing chase at the wrong time made him look worse than he was.

Also after the little pileup on the Cat 3 climb, he was done, he knew it, and he packed it in. Had he still been in the mix, he would not have lost as much time on the final climb as he did.

Note, I'm not saying he would still be in the race but for the crashes. I am saying there's still a bit left to Armstrong.
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Old 07-12-10, 08:24 AM
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Originally Posted by chasm54 View Post
Yes, but there's a reason he couldn't keep up with his teammates, and it wasn't just the crashes. He looks in seriously poor form. I'd be very surprised if he has it in him to win a stage - especially not the Tourmalet...
This is the key point. He has looked bad on every stage except the opening prologue (which was very short). I'm a fan of his but he doesn't have the legs or lungs anymore. He is making mistakes on the road, is tentative, and no longer has the legs.

Can he regain some composure and stick with the peloton, sure. Can he attack and win a stage. Not in my opinion.

Also, keep in mind the humiliation and embarrassment if he attacks on a mountain top finish and none of the big men of the Tour react because he is no threat. I don't think he will want that video (along with the video of him getting out-sprinted by a nobody for the finish as his last highlight.
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Old 07-12-10, 08:25 AM
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It's going to be tough. I don't think he can win the TT. He hasn't had great TT form since the comeback. He'll have to beat specialists like Cancellara, Dave Z, etc. Yes, it will be late in the Tour and those guys might not be as good as normal, but they'll save up all the energy they can for that stage. If the GC is still close Evans & Contador could put up strong times as well.

Aside from that, what stages are good for him? Stages 9 & 10 finish after a descent. Those look good for breakaways, but it's too soon. He won't have a huge leash yet and he still has to help Levi.

Stage 11 looks like a sprint.

Stage 12 looks good for a break, but it suits a punchy guy like Gerrans. If Lance made it to the finish there someone would probably outsprint him.

Stage 13 has breakaway written all over it, but there aren't any big climbs to weed out the guys with a good finishing kick.

Stage 14 is a summit finish where he should be helping Levi.

Stage 15 is an HC climb followed by a descent. This may be his best shot. How about a Vino/Lance duel? That would be fun. Stage 16 is similar, but with more flat ground before the finish.

Stage 17 is the queen stage, and the GC guys will probably finish that one first. If not, Lance would probably get outclimbed by a KOM guy.

18's a sprint, 19 is the TT, and 20 is the final stage.

Here's the problem- what if Levi hangs in there until stage 17? Could you imagine if the roles were reversed? Would Levi ever be given the freedom to chase a stage win in those circumstances? You can argue that he's a legend and he deserves to salvage his last Tour, but he has preached helping the team. I think it would be a rare circumstance that him going for a stage win would actually help Levi.

He has to hope Levi is done after Stage 14 and he can give it a go on Stage 15 or 16.
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Old 07-12-10, 08:35 AM
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Originally Posted by DXchulo View Post
Stage 14 is a summit finish where he should be helping Levi.

Stage 15 is an HC climb followed by a descent. This may be his best shot. How about a Vino/Lance duel? That would be fun. Stage 16 is similar, but with more flat ground before the finish.

Stage 17 is the queen stage, and the GC guys will probably finish that one first. If not, Lance would probably get outclimbed by a KOM guy.

18's a sprint, 19 is the TT, and 20 is the final stage.

Here's the problem- what if Levi hangs in there until stage 17? Could you imagine if the roles were reversed? Would Levi ever be given the freedom to chase a stage win in those circumstances? You can argue that he's a legend and he deserves to salvage his last Tour, but he has preached helping the team. I think it would be a rare circumstance that him going for a stage win would actually help Levi.

He has to hope Levi is done after Stage 14 and he can give it a go on Stage 15 or 16.
He can do this and still help Leipheimer. Having Armstrong in an early break helps Levi. It's exactly how Hincapie won the Queen stage of the Tour in 2005.

After he's lost enough time that he has a long leash, he goes in an early break. If Levi needs him, he's there to drop back and help. (and with his present form, he's probably not that much help at the end of the day if he's ahd to climb with the lead group to get here, but more help if he's dropping back from the break.) If not, he can attack the break at the end and try to pick off a stage.

And if anyone still cares about Armstrong's placing enough to chase, that alleviates Radio Shack from chasing and helps Leipheimer.

And he can sit in on the break with the excuse that he's just up the road to help Leipheimer, mark the break, and can't work.


Assuming that Leipheimer has a shot to get on the podium, Shack can advance that by keeping Horner Kloden, Brackovich, and Popo with Leipheimer, and sending Armstrong up the road.
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Old 07-12-10, 08:39 AM
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Originally Posted by merlinextraligh View Post
Note, I'm not saying he would still be in the race but for the crashes. I am saying there's still a bit left to Armstrong.
Sure, it's also entirely possible that does get his form back, especially when he relaxes a little (comparatively) for a couple days. He also will be a contender in the ITT imo.
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Old 07-12-10, 08:44 AM
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One other thing to keep in mind. . .a big part of Armstrong's competitiveness is his intimidation of other competitors. This has been true with Merckx, Hinault, etc. . .they were viewed as superhumans, etc. Now he is just another cyclist past his prime. He gets no respect from the peloton anymore and they know they can beat him. There are many young riders a few years go that would have not even tried to beat him. . now, they will all want to be in a break with him and beat him.
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Old 07-12-10, 08:49 AM
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Merlin, I get what you're saying, but to me Armstrong isn't the best guy to send in a break because he could actually be useful in pushing the pace early on a big climb. Wouldn't it make more sense to put Popo in the break?

The whole go in a break and drop back thing always seems to work better in theory. Most of the time the guy in the break is dead tired already and the best he can do is hand off a bottle and maybe take a 1-minute pull.
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Old 07-12-10, 08:53 AM
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ZERO. TT would be the best chance but that would take a miracle. Any other stages, won't happen. Some have suggested he might get a stage because he isn't a threat to the GC. Even if that were true, why would he want to win a stage that was uncontested by the GC contenders?

Would seem a bit pathetic if you ask me.
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Old 07-12-10, 08:53 AM
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Old 07-12-10, 08:59 AM
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Of course he's gonna win a stage...duh!

He's 13' back so no one will bother with him now.
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Old 07-12-10, 09:16 AM
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Originally Posted by aadhils View Post
Of course he's gonna win a stage...duh!

He's 13' back so no one will bother with him now.
OK, if you're so confident, you can back him on Betfair at 3.2 (decimal odds - equivalent to about 9/4) to win a stage. Easy money, go for it.
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Old 07-12-10, 09:34 AM
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^ unfortunately, you can't place a bet there from the U.S.

And while I started this thread saying I bet he does win a stage, I'm thinking I'd want a little bit better odds before I put my money where my keypad is.

The odds for Armstrong to win the Tour are always skewed by the "Lance fanboy" crowd, so I'm thinking that would be true with these odds as well for a stage win.
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Old 07-12-10, 09:47 AM
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Originally Posted by aadhils View Post
Of course he's gonna win a stage...duh!

He's 13' back so no one will bother with him now.
Thats not quite true. It is unsure how good or bad his form is, my bet it the guys actully hter know far better than we do.

If his problems so far have mainly been bad luck then even though he is not a threat himself he would still be a very strong rider. That means as long as Levi is still in the mix the other teams are not going to be comfortable with him up the road. They are not going to cover him as much as they would a contender, but he will not be totally ignored either.
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Old 07-12-10, 09:53 AM
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^ which is why I think he has to loose more time before he becomes a threat to win a stage.
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Old 07-12-10, 10:08 AM
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Originally Posted by merlinextraligh View Post
^ unfortunately, you can't place a bet there from the U.S.

And while I started this thread saying I bet he does win a stage, I'm thinking I'd want a little bit better odds before I put my money where my keypad is.

The odds for Armstrong to win the Tour are always skewed by the "Lance fanboy" crowd, so I'm thinking that would be true with these odds as well for a stage win.
Then maybe you should try to find a place where you can bet against him.
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Old 07-12-10, 10:18 AM
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JB has publicly said it is all over for LA now so they will support Levi.
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Old 07-12-10, 10:33 AM
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Scratch Gerrans from stage 12. He's out with a broken arm now. He was on my fantasy team.
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Old 07-12-10, 11:24 AM
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I think the odds are pretty good he can win a stage. The overall is not an option anymore but a stage is defintely possible, and i am sure he will try and win the time trial.
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