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Chris Horner is going to win the TdF

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Chris Horner is going to win the TdF

Old 06-20-11, 02:06 PM
  #26  
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Horner did wait for LA on the stage LA crashed losing minutes and then worked for the team for the most part the rest of the race and still finished 10th. I give him a shot at the podium at least.
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Old 06-20-11, 04:28 PM
  #27  
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Looks like Chris is an 80 to 1 shot........

http://www.thespread.com/sports-bett...ntador-favored
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Old 06-20-11, 06:49 PM
  #28  
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Would love to see it, but will settle for a stage win. Go Chris!!!
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Old 06-21-11, 02:09 AM
  #29  
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the last few years have begun the transition from the old guard (menchov, leipheimer, basso, horner...) to the young guns. being in their prime, andy schleck and alberto contador are 'middle guns." nibali, kreuziger, porte, martin, le mevel, et al will have something to say with this year's tdf. expecting at least 5 of the top ten to be = or < than 28 years old with one or two of the white jersey contenders to be included in those 5. lot of exciting, young, potential gc gt riders/contenders...personally don't see horner in the top 5 but a breakaway mountain/medium mountain stage win if he rides? that i can see.
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Old 06-21-11, 02:21 PM
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Nibali - won't be there, Kreuziger - raced the Giro & if he is there will be too tired to be in the top ten, Porte - riding support for Contador, Martin - probably won't be there, possible leader at Vuelta for Garmin-Cervelo.
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Old 06-21-11, 11:03 PM
  #31  
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It'll be interesting to see what guys like Tommy D and Van Garderen can do if they can make it three weeks without bad luck.
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Old 06-22-11, 04:40 AM
  #32  
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Originally Posted by ooga-booga View Post
the last few years have begun the transition from the old guard (menchov, leipheimer, basso, horner...) to the young guns. being in their prime, andy schleck and alberto contador are 'middle guns." nibali, kreuziger, porte, martin, le mevel, et al will have something to say with this year's tdf. expecting at least 5 of the top ten to be = or < than 28 years old with one or two of the white jersey contenders to be included in those 5. lot of exciting, young, potential gc gt riders/contenders...personally don't see horner in the top 5 but a breakaway mountain/medium mountain stage win if he rides? that i can see.
Um ... Isn't Andy just 26 ... He's younger than your young guns ...
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Old 06-22-11, 10:01 PM
  #33  
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and Im going to win the tour of Antarctica.


actually I just remember reading an recent arcticle last year wear horner said he has in so many words finally perfected his training. It shows.
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Old 06-22-11, 11:17 PM
  #34  
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I think it's really tough to go through 3 weeks of racing without a bad day when you are 39 years old. With a race like the TDF, you could race well for 20 days and all it takes is that one bad day to lose it.

I think that's the main difference for the older riders. They might be able to keep up with the younger guys for the majority of the race, but their recovery is not quite the same. Eventually the legs give out. They can still go for stage wins or place highly, but as far as winning the overall, I see that as unlikely.
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Old 06-22-11, 11:36 PM
  #35  
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Originally Posted by SouthFLpix View Post
I think it's really tough to go through 3 weeks of racing without a bad day when you are 39 years old. With a race like the TDF, you could race well for 20 days and all it takes is that one bad day to lose it.

I think that's the main difference for the older riders. They might be able to keep up with the younger guys for the majority of the race, but their recovery is not quite the same. Eventually the legs give out. They can still go for stage wins or place highly, but as far as winning the overall, I see that as unlikely.
I completely disagree. I haven't been following this stuff for very long, but to me, the older "veterans" seem to be more consistent, less prone to accidents, and more confident in their training, racing, recovery, strategy, and routine.

They've been there, and they know what to expect. As mentioned, Horner says he's "perfected his training" regimen. Maybe he has, maybe not, but how is that even possible for a 24-year-old rider who doesn't really even know what he's training for?
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Old 06-23-11, 04:34 AM
  #36  
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If Horner won the TdF it would be unbelievable. I can understand why some on here would like to see it happen but ther's the old saying "if it's too good to be true, it isn't".

Personally, I think cycling can do without surprises like this.
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Old 06-23-11, 05:26 AM
  #37  
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Originally Posted by Kind of Blued View Post
I completely disagree. I haven't been following this stuff for very long, but to me, the older "veterans" seem to be more consistent, less prone to accidents, and more confident in their training, racing, recovery, strategy, and routine.

They've been there, and they know what to expect. As mentioned, Horner says he's "perfected his training" regimen. Maybe he has, maybe not, but how is that even possible for a 24-year-old rider who doesn't really even know what he's training for?
There's no shortage of guys 19-24 years old that have won the Tour; there's only been one winner over the age of 34, and that was in 1922. We've had ninety years for some old guy to perfect his training, and still no 35-year-old winner.
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Old 06-23-11, 10:36 AM
  #38  
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Originally Posted by harlond View Post
There's no shortage of guys 19-24 years old that have won the Tour; there's only been one winner over the age of 34, and that was in 1922. We've had ninety years for some old guy to perfect his training, and still no 35-year-old winner.
Yes, and that win was based on a bit of luck. Several riders were ahead of Lambot on the general classification and suffered 'crippling' mechanical issues. Philippe Thys (first 3 time winner) broke his wheel and lost 3 hours. Hector Heusghem broke his bicycle and exchanged it for a new one (illegal at the time) and was given a 1 hour penalty for the infraction. That is how Lambot was able to take over the lead and win the Tour de France at the age of 36 in 1922.

There is some really good information on this in the book, "The Story of the Tour de France"
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Old 06-24-11, 02:47 AM
  #39  
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Originally Posted by SouthFLpix View Post
I think it's really tough to go through 3 weeks of racing without a bad day when you are 39 years old. With a race like the TDF, you could race well for 20 days and all it takes is that one bad day to lose it.

I think that's the main difference for the older riders. They might be able to keep up with the younger guys for the majority of the race, but their recovery is not quite the same. Eventually the DRUGS give out. They can still go for stage wins or place highly, but as far as winning the overall, I see that as unlikely.
Fixed
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Old 06-26-11, 06:08 PM
  #40  
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Horner is clearly in great form, but his results over the last couple of years shows he's a much stronger one-week stage race rider. Over the course of a grand tour he just hasn't had the staying power. I think he's got the best shot this year at his best result, but he'll be lucky to grab the last podium spot.
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Old 06-27-11, 12:04 PM
  #41  
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Originally Posted by ahsposo View Post
You read it here first.
That would be awesome, but pretty unlikely.
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Old 06-27-11, 12:14 PM
  #42  
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ah hahahahahahahahahaha!....

seriously though, with all the CG contenders on the Shack squad headed to the TDF and no clear protected rider, I don't see it. A stage win is a stretch at best.
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Old 06-27-11, 01:59 PM
  #43  
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I'd love it if Chris won, but I put $10 on Andy:

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Old 06-27-11, 02:07 PM
  #44  
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Originally Posted by SouthFLpix View Post
Yes, and that win was based on a bit of luck. Several riders were ahead of Lambot on the general classification and suffered 'crippling' mechanical issues. Philippe Thys (first 3 time winner) broke his wheel and lost 3 hours. Hector Heusghem broke his bicycle and exchanged it for a new one (illegal at the time) and was given a 1 hour penalty for the infraction. That is how Lambot was able to take over the lead and win the Tour de France at the age of 36 in 1922.

There is some really good information on this in the book, "The Story of the Tour de France"
Didn't one of the youngest winners get the win because 3 or 4 riders ahead of him were involved in a 'training' incident? (Very early in the TDF, well before 1922)
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Old 06-27-11, 02:16 PM
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Originally Posted by Kind of Blued View Post
I completely disagree. I haven't been following this stuff for very long, but to me, the older "veterans" seem to be more consistent, less prone to accidents, and more confident in their training, racing, recovery, strategy, and routine.

They've been there, and they know what to expect. As mentioned, Horner says he's "perfected his training" regimen. Maybe he has, maybe not, but how is that even possible for a 24-year-old rider who doesn't really even know what he's training for?
So are you saying a 24 year old rider who won by over 17 minutes didn't know what he was training for? And barely 24 at that.
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Old 07-01-11, 05:00 PM
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Originally Posted by ralph1234 View Post
Horner is clearly in great form, but his results over the last couple of years shows he's a much stronger one-week stage race rider. Over the course of a grand tour he just hasn't had the staying power. I think he's got the best shot this year at his best result, but he'll be lucky to grab the last podium spot.
I agree. His ToC win shows that he's in great shape, and appears to have greatly improved his climbing ability. If the TdF was only a week long I'd give Horner a great chance. But it's not....

In the end, his teammate Levi will finish above him in the GC - whether that will be good enough for the podium remains to be seen.
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Old 07-02-11, 01:06 PM
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betfair has cut the odds to 132:1

bet365 has him at 40:1 and Levi at 50.

Go, you old coot, GO!
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Old 07-02-11, 02:31 PM
  #48  
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Andy Schleck is gonna take it this year.
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Old 07-02-11, 03:08 PM
  #49  
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Originally Posted by Keith99 View Post
Didn't one of the youngest winners get the win because 3 or 4 riders ahead of him were involved in a 'training' incident? (Very early in the TDF, well before 1922)
I believe you are thinking of Henri Cornet, who won the 1904 TDF at the age of 19, after the first 4 in the GC were disqualified for cheating.

That year the entire TDF was plagued by rabid cheating, as riders hitched rides on cars and trains since many of the stages were so long that riding went on well into the night. You think fans get rowdy now? Back then they threw nails on the road or even physically attacked their favorites rivals. Cornet actually had to ride 40k on flat tires in final stage.
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Old 07-02-11, 03:47 PM
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So it looks like Radioshack has a good shot at being in yellow after tomorrow, am I right? I hope they give the jersey to Horner if that happens.
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