DXchulo

Given his history I'd say it would be completely fair to say. This is his perfect chance to win.

HardyWeinberg

I was thinking I can't watch the TT 'cause I'm going to be riding my bike.

dagna

Just had to say... I told you so.

Dubbayoo

2009 Tour
July 23, Stage 18: Annecy - Annecy (ITT) 40.5km, mostly flat course with one hill 2/3 through.

1 Alberto Contador Velasco (Spa) Astana 0:48:31
12 Cadel Evans (Aus) Silence - Lotto 0:01:14
21 Andy Schleck (Lux) Team Saxo Bank 0:01:44

SouthFLpix

To be honest, I don't think it was a great stage for the Schlecks. Andy should never have tried to follow Contador. By doing so he wore himself out and consequently he was not able to put any time into Evans. Evans is now in position to do what Lemond did in 1989.

NathanL

Assuming Andy gets his shifts down tomorrow...too soon/too early?

The Schlecks came to the Tour this year to beat Contador and they will do that, be funny to me if they wind up 2nd and 3rd but ahead of Contador - but no win.

DXchulo

https://www.cyclingnews.com/races/75t...tage-9/results 2011 Tour de Suisse time trial results (41k)
https://velonews.competitor.com/2011/...stage-3_177669 2011 Dauphine time trial results (32k)

Evans finished 1:20 down on Tony Martin, who is probably 2nd best to Cancellara in TTs. He put 1:19 into Van Den Broeck, 1:29 into Gesink, and 2:07 into Sanchez. Wiggins (1:09) and Brajkovic (3s) were the only GC guys who beat him.

Schleck finished 2:32 down on Cancellara. He finished behind almost all the GC guys: Leipheimer, Danielson, CVV, Hesjedal, and even Cunego. The only guy he really beat was his brother.

Dubbayoo

With the exception of Strongarm, guys who do well in the Dauphine usually do poorly in the Tour.

2010 Janez Brajkovic (Slo)
2009 Alejandro Valverde (Spa)
2008 Alejandro Valverde (Spa)
2007 Christophe Moreau (Fra)
2006 Levi Leipheimer (USA)
2005 Inigo Landaluze (Spa)
2004 Iban Mayo (Spa)
2003 Lance Armstrong (USA)
2002 Lance Armstrong (USA)
2001 Christophe Moreau (Fra)
2000 Tyler Hamilton (USA)


2004 Mayo beat lance like a rented mule but was way the heck down at the Tour.

DXchulo

I posted time trial results, not overall GC results.

I think 2011 time trial results a month before the TDF are more relevant than time trial results from 2009, but that's just me.

SouthFLpix

I think the reason Andy will have lost this Tour is because the only person he paid any attention to was Contador. Even today why is he going after a guy 5 minutes down on GC when Evans is within a minute of him and a much better time trailer? His goal for today was to put time into Cadel Evans, and he did not succeed. For that reason, I think he just lost the TDF.

DXchulo

If Andy loses it will be because he didn't do anything in the Pyrenees.

dstrong 

How many time do you think Cadel said "Eff off mate" to AS when he was goading him into chasing AC?

Dubbayoo

And I'm saying results in June for guys who plan to peak in July are the last thing we should be looking at, but that's just me too. Even so you're saying Schleck was 1:12 behind Evans last month. He's got 57 seconds now so losing is far from a done deal.

Jed19

Radio use to the rescue. I am sure Cadel did the tactically-brilliant thing b/cos his team car was constantly in his ears about how much gap Contador had on his group. All he had to concetrate on were the two Schlecks, and he did that brilliantly without cooking his legs. I like his chances in yellow after the TT tomorrow.

NathanL

Andy has target fixation with Contador instead of the yellow. Even after the race he was saying he was "suprised" that Evans didn't want to contribute to catch Contador. No kidding...because he wasn't racing Contador he was racing you.

SouthFLpix

I agree. I don't understand Schlecks tactics at all. Contador would have needed to hop on one of those BMW motorcycles to get back enough time on GC to make a difference to Cadel and Andy. All he was doing was going stage hunting.

kleinboogie

Wow, a couple missed a bunch of tactics. You might want to watch it again. The Schlecks had several cards to play and did. Bottom line is Cadel was stronger and Andy and Frank ran out of cards. Brilliant ride by Cadel. Smart, strong and extremely likely this years champion.

Dolomiti

Could someone explain to me why the Schlecks decided to help Evans up l'Alpe d'Huez? Are they afraid Contador will smash the field in the TT by 5 minutes? Their tactics didn't make any sense to me. Then asking Evans to pace the Schlecks up the climb? It seemed idiotic. I could understand under all that riding, to make a mental error or two in decision making... but their DS was telling them to do it over the radio as well.

Previous to that, Andy didn't seem to help at all on the Galibier, when he could have assisted Contador in putting Evans out of the race.

DXchulo

Both guys were using the TT as a test and neither guy seems to have peaked too early or too late. Schleck was talking all about how he improved his TT, but it didn't look that way in the TDS.

I'm not even saying that Schleck was 1:12 behind Evans. Those were different courses with different distances. I was trying to show that if you compare Evans to his competition in the Dauphine he did much better than Schleck did against his competition in the TDS. If both guys are fresh I would expect Evans to be much faster. That's the big question, though: how fresh are the guys and how much motivation can the yellow jersey give Schleck?

NathanL

Please explain the tactic that Andy thought Cadel was going to help do the work in the last 5km when Alberto was so far out and Cadel was on Andy's wheel. Not only did he ask in the race he went on about it in the post race interview saying he didn't understand why Cadel didn't want to share the workload....I thought it was pretty obvious that Cadel was racing Andy and Frank and not Alberto unlike the Schlecks.

bkrownd

Maybe Schleck just wanted to goad Evans to riding harder so he'd risk overexerting himself or be more worn out for tomorrow? As they say, "it doesn't hurt to ask..."

Andy_K 

I think Voeckler would have done better to put that last little bit of courage in his jersey pocket and toss the empty suitcase on the side of the road. How much do you think he hurt himself by riding half the race by himself between AS/AC and the peleton?

gear

+1 I've noticed this right along with their tactics, he doesn't seem to be trying to win the race (he always acts as if that were a given) so much as beat AC. He wasn't goading Evans, he is genuinely shocked that Evans wasn't as fixated on AC as he is.

Dubbayoo

I thought you were saying Evans beat Andy in the Dauphine. No argument Evans will beat Andy in the TT. I question whether he will beat him by a minute in 40K when Schleck has yellow on his back. 30 seconds? easy, 45 seconds? 50/50, 60 seconds? 20/80 chance.

Bacciagalupe

Let's not forget that since he's in yellow, AS will start after Evans, and this gives AS a small advantage.